Funny how my simple analysis (10+ year career) was so close to a more detailed analysis.
The #18 pick according to that 82games.com analysis has a 45% chance to be at least a role player. I said 47% for the whole 16-20 pick range.
Point being, if the Mavs have a 45% or 47% chance to get a role player (or better!) at #18 and have him on a rookie contract, TAKE THAT SHOT! Do not sell it off unless you REALLY get a player you KNOW fits this team getting better.
I should add that according to the 82games.com analysis the #31 pick has a 30% chance of being at least a rotation role player. TAKE THAT SHOT!
The #18 pick according to that 82games.com analysis has a 45% chance to be at least a role player. I said 47% for the whole 16-20 pick range.
Point being, if the Mavs have a 45% or 47% chance to get a role player (or better!) at #18 and have him on a rookie contract, TAKE THAT SHOT! Do not sell it off unless you REALLY get a player you KNOW fits this team getting better.
I should add that according to the 82games.com analysis the #31 pick has a 30% chance of being at least a rotation role player. TAKE THAT SHOT!