From 2000-2010 (11 drafts) I looked at the 16-20 picks. Out of those 55 players, 26 of them played a 10 year career or longer. That is 47% of them were good enough to make it in the league for 10+ years, meaning they were at least solid, rotation kind of players.
So let's see:
The chances to hit on the 18th pick with a rotation, 10+ year NBA player? 47%
The chances to win the Powerball Lottery? 0.0000000034%
Is it fair to say the draft is like a lottery ticket?
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/2vH0xB1EhRouQ/giphy.gif)
I do not think this is accurate.
Do teams like to have the pick so they have control of the scouting and picking process? YES. So the pick is valued when it is "uncashed" so to speak.
Is it possible you draft a total bust with #18? YES. There is a 53% chance that player will not play 10+ years in the NBA. But being a "total bust" is not seen for a number of years. For instance the Mavs turned DSJ (a bust to us) into KP. And the Mavs took a shot on Justin Jackson (a bust to SAC). Teams are always willing to try and "reclaim" players from other teams. Most guys will at least get a solid look for the entirety of their rookie contracts.
Do some guys end up succeeding at #18? YES. Eric Bledsoe was taken #18 in 2010. Mavs fans were clamoring for the Mavs to sign him or trade for him for years. His value became MUCH higher than a generic #18 pick once teams saw who he was.
Point?
Yes, the #18 could lose its value once picked, but it takes a few years AT LEAST for it to be worthless. Also, the #18 pick, if you hit on it becomes worth WAY MORE than it was as just a pick.
Look, if you are looking for superstars, the draft is a LOW percentage undertaking. But if you are looking for rotation, role-players you have a GOOD shot of finding one. And some teams (like SAS did for years around Duncan) see this and simply use the draft to stockpile their team with solid, rotation guys. The Mavs NEED this approach. Just find solid guys in the draft who can be cheap role players.
So let's see:
The chances to hit on the 18th pick with a rotation, 10+ year NBA player? 47%
The chances to win the Powerball Lottery? 0.0000000034%
Is it fair to say the draft is like a lottery ticket?
(10-14-2020, 07:08 AM)omahen Wrote: This is exactly why I think pick has more value before/during the draft. Afterwards, there is a high chance for #18 pick to lose all/most of its value.
I do not think this is accurate.
Do teams like to have the pick so they have control of the scouting and picking process? YES. So the pick is valued when it is "uncashed" so to speak.
Is it possible you draft a total bust with #18? YES. There is a 53% chance that player will not play 10+ years in the NBA. But being a "total bust" is not seen for a number of years. For instance the Mavs turned DSJ (a bust to us) into KP. And the Mavs took a shot on Justin Jackson (a bust to SAC). Teams are always willing to try and "reclaim" players from other teams. Most guys will at least get a solid look for the entirety of their rookie contracts.
Do some guys end up succeeding at #18? YES. Eric Bledsoe was taken #18 in 2010. Mavs fans were clamoring for the Mavs to sign him or trade for him for years. His value became MUCH higher than a generic #18 pick once teams saw who he was.
Point?
Yes, the #18 could lose its value once picked, but it takes a few years AT LEAST for it to be worthless. Also, the #18 pick, if you hit on it becomes worth WAY MORE than it was as just a pick.
Look, if you are looking for superstars, the draft is a LOW percentage undertaking. But if you are looking for rotation, role-players you have a GOOD shot of finding one. And some teams (like SAS did for years around Duncan) see this and simply use the draft to stockpile their team with solid, rotation guys. The Mavs NEED this approach. Just find solid guys in the draft who can be cheap role players.