09-08-2020, 12:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-08-2020, 12:50 PM by Scott41theMavs.)
(09-08-2020, 11:50 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.
Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.
I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.
In the end, it's not about fan expectations; it's about the evaluations - and the competence - of the front office. Cam Johnson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges - all competent, contributing, first-year starters. I would include Luka, but everyone knew he was going to be an uncommon rookie. That's part of the evaluation process - is this guy going to be able to hit the ground running?
The bottom line is that the Mavs need two new starters this year. Sine qua non. I would gladly place a gentleman's that in next year's wild and wooly West, if the Mavs fail to acquire two new starters superior to what they have now (short of, of course, a single new starter being someone like Giannis, which ain't happening), they will not have home-court advantage in the first round. Moreover, they will probably lose in the first round and Luka will be pissed at the front office.
So, if the MBT thinks they can get a starter - a playoff starter - out of their pick somehow, they should use it. If they don't think they can, then keeping the pick is gravely irresponsible.