THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[aguiar95]

I'm kind of against these projects like Poku for us. I feel we need a high floor/low ceiling guy that can comfortably play right out of the gate on our rotation. My favorites are:

- Trade up (#18 + #31 gets us into the 10-14 range): D. Vassell, T. Maxey, T. Haliburton. Possible 4th to 5th starters that complement very well our squad.

- #18: P. Achiuwa, S. Bey. I can see them in a 5th to 7th man roles.

- #31: T. Bey, D. Bane. 7th to 10th man roles.

- Trade down: I. Quickley, I. Joe, C. Kispert. 2-way that can develop into a role player.

Yeah, Bane absolutely shocked most of us (and NBA scouts). T. Bey was a wild miss by me, Vassell was my prime target. Good times when we got excited for the draft.

[speedkilz88]

I was able to read this article.  Typically I cannot, so I guess I will post.

https://twitter.com/calliecaplan/status/...24580?s=46&t=iNRjUDIFtEG86eWxnweGBA

(Brave browser will allow you to access this type of paywall automatically, opera might as well)



Josh Green has known his trainer, Joe Abunassar, for years, so when the Mavericks’ Western Conference finals run ended in May with the 21-year-old guard out of the rotation, Green didn’t disguise his disappointment.

“Man,” he told Abunassar about a week after the playoffs, “this is going to be a big summer.”

Abunassar replied: “Let’s do it.”

And so they did.

Talk with Mavericks coaches and players through the first week of training camp, and most will highlight Green, unprompted, as the player who’s in the best shape, who improved the most this offseason and who could help fill the backcourt questions the team faces in Jalen Brunson’s absence.

What a response after all the tumult the 2020 first-round pick has endured.

Dallas’ preseason opener Wednesday against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tulsa will be the first chance for Green to play a true opponent with more confidence as a ball handler, more security as a scorer and more discipline as a shooter.

The Mavericks say these traits haven’t wavered since Green returned to Dallas from his rigorous, comprehensive, non-stop offseason training in Las Vegas.

As one recently told Abunassar: “This is no fluke.”

“They think, ‘OK, this kid is different. He figured it out,’” Abunassar said. “It’s just very, very refreshing to have a young guy say, ‘Hey, I don’t like the way last season went, and I’m going to do something about it.’”

The pre-dawn alarms, regimented diet and unrelenting physical demands Green experienced with Abunassar’s Impact Basketball program in Las Vegas might’ve felt like a grind.

But one task was even tougher: re-watching the Mavericks’ playoff film.

Last year, Green averaged 15.5 minutes across 67 games and found a rhythm from three after the All-Star break to boost his regular-season clip to 35.9% on low volume.

Coach Jason Kidd’s staff viewed second-year Green as a rookie after former coach Rick Carlisle’s strict control and the NBA’s COVID-19 obstacles hindered his introductory 2020-21 season.

But come playoffs, Green’s hesitation and mechanics on offense became too much a liability to test, even when opponents would target him with their slowest defender in space.

Frank Ntilikina replaced him on the wing midway through the second round, and Green didn’t play more than eight minutes over the last 10 games.

“It was hard to watch it, but at the same time, it’s a learning curve,” Green said. “It just motivated me.”

Green moved to Las Vegas in early June, about a week after the postseason ended, and entered Abunassar’s program with three specific charges from the Mavericks’ leadership:

Improve ball-handling.
Finish better at the rim.
Shoot more consistently from three.


For Green’s first six weeks at Impact, Abunassar focused on correcting deficiencies.

They repped driving to the basket with two hands on the ball, not exposing it for turnovers. They re-set his 3-point shooting foundation to keep his right knee from flaring into what Green called a “stanky leg.” They simulated double teams to force Green to read defenses with the ball in his possession.

He ran scrimmages every day with trainers often pausing play to ask questions or discuss situations when he’d rush a move or make a mistake.

With most of Abunassar’s NBA clients off until late July, Green led offenses with draft prospects and rising young players as the veteran decision-maker.

“We were really working with him on ‘Josh, sloooow down. It’s that simple. Look what you had. You had a jumper here, you don’t need to take four dribbles,’” Abunassar said.

“He calls [his rushed tendencies] ‘hot potato.’ I say he’s got a motor stuck up his butt. Like, dude, somebody’s got to turn the motor off. So we turned the motor from Gear 4 back to Gear 1 and just let him see.”

Green’s secondary instructor arrived in August.

He and Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry had known each other from a few summer workouts with Abunassar in 2021 between the Olympics, but Green recognized the six-time All-Star point guard “really wanted to help me out” this offseason.

Together in August they lifted each morning, ran two-a-day workouts on the court, did Pilates sessions, watched film and ate meals because Green said “he wanted me to be around and do everything,” just as Kevin Garnett and Chauncey Billups had done for young Lowry in Abunassar’s program years earlier.

During one-on-one runs, Green noticed how the 36-year-old Lowry used shot fakes to create space and score without passing or moving his body. Dissecting those moves as his defender helped Green implement the same concepts in his own offense.

“Sometimes he’d look at me just like, ‘Man, slow down,’” Green said. “I was able to realize if you just slow down, the whole game just slows down so much, and there’s so much more you can do with the ball in your hand, rather than just panicking.”

With a low-carbohydrate, lean protein diet and consistent sleep schedule to recover from workouts, Green cut his weight from 222 pounds to 211, Abunassar said, and his body fat from 10% to 7%.

He missed training only for a trip home to Australia, where he hadn’t visited in about four years. Before the vacation, Green hesitated to leave Impact because he didn’t want to lose progress.

But once Green returned and shook the jetlag, Abunassar heard a common refrain from those watching and playing in Las Vegas.

“The other NBA guys in our gym were like, ‘God dang,” Abunassar said. “They kept saying, ‘He’s going to make a lot of money.’ That’s the way they look at it these days. They’d say, ‘He’s going to be in the rotation. That kid’s good.’”

The Mavericks will provide ample opportunity.

Green’s highlights through training camp include an active practice Friday, when Mavericks champion Brendan Haywood repeatedly marveled at Green’s evolution.

During the Fan Jam open scrimmage Saturday, Green rotated in Spencer Dinwiddie’s place, alongside the Mavericks’ four other starters. He ran with the same group Monday, ending the five-on-five portion of practice with his team’s game-sealing pass break-up.

Behind him, Luka Doncic flexed in celebration, and teammates shouted with praise.

“My first year, it was like I had a hot potato in my hand,” Green said. “I look at film of it, and [I’m] just like, ‘Dude, what are you doing?” I think going into Year 3, everything’s just slowed down. I’m a lot more confident. My teammates are a lot more confident in me, and that helps.”

[Kammrath]

The pre-dawn alarms, regimented diet and unrelenting physical demands Green experienced with Abunassar’s Impact Basketball program in Las Vegas might’ve felt like a grind.

With a low-carbohydrate, lean protein diet and consistent sleep schedule to recover from workouts, Green cut his weight from 222 pounds to 211, Abunassar said, and his body fat from 10% to 7%.

JG is younger than Luka and has figured this out. Come on Luka!!!

[mvossman]

Yeah, I stated a couple days ago that him making "the leap" absolutely changes this roster drastically for the better. Not only from a playing standpoint this season but from a trade asset perspective. Hitting on a draft prospect IS the way that the roster outlook for teams is changed.

Hopefully we are having the same conversation about Hardy in a year or two.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Preaseason game 1: Still passive.

But I'm going to let this slide for the next two games still, thinking he is just a good pal, letting Pinson and the younger guys get some burn and opportunities to score.

But..

At the start of the season.. should have JG driving and dishing and looking for his shot, rather just take open 3s. I understand deferring to Luka Din and THJ, but no other guard gets to have more shots than him.

[dynamicalVoid]

Preaseason game 1: Still passive.

But I'm going to let this slide for the next two games still, thinking he is just a good pal, letting Pinson and the younger guys get some burn and opportunities to score.

But..

At the start of the season.. should have JG driving and dishing and looking for his shot, rather just take open 3s. I understand deferring to Luka Din and THJ, but no other guard gets to have more shots than him.

ONLY BASED ON TWO PAINT DRIVES...Green looked way more confident in the paint than previous.

One he made a lay up(no contact but had to adjust slightly...so for NBA standards should be nothing) and another he made a great pass for a score.

Only issue is...he still seems pass happy and I think if I can figure that out NBA teams can.  If Josh Green dashes to the paint...1) hes not confident in traffic so most likely will miss a contested layup 2) he is looking to pass...so just be handsy and you can most likely disrupt an attempted pass.   Its really that easy with him in the paint.

I will grant the Green Homers this(and I am a Green supporter whom wants him to succeed but thinks he has major offensive warts) he looked more confident tonight offensively.   His handles werent improved...but his confidence in going to the lane were.  

If this kid can figure out a 3 ball before his next contract we might have a player

[Smitty]

JG is younger than Luka and has figured this out. Come on Luka!!!

You're one of the few posters capable of turning a feel good story about Green into a shot at Luka.

[DanSchwartzgan]

ONLY BASED ON TWO PAINT DRIVES...Green looked way more confident in the paint than previous.

One he made a lay up(no contact but had to adjust slightly...so for NBA standards should be nothing) and another he made a great pass for a score.

Only issue is...he still seems pass happy and I think if I can figure that out NBA teams can.  If Josh Green dashes to the paint...1) hes not confident in traffic so most likely will miss a contested layup 2) he is looking to pass...so just be handsy and you can most likely disrupt an attempted pass.   Its really that easy with him in the paint.

I will grant the Green Homers this(and I am a Green supporter whom wants him to succeed but thinks he has major offensive warts) he looked more confident tonight offensively.   His handles werent improved...but his confidence in going to the lane were.  

If this kid can figure out a 3 ball before his next contract we might have a player

I’ll take 9 points and 4 assists (14.75 and 6.5 per 36) on great shooting splits all day.  I wonder what some of those decisions he made might have looked like with normal spacing.  

I thought Bullock missed a great highlight reel opportunity for Josh on his missed layup.  Josh was coming in for a monster slam on the left wing and Bullock decided to challenge the big.  How differently do we look at last night if Reggie makes a little dump off and Josh scores points 10 and 11 (and maybe gets the and-one) on a highlight reel dunk.  

I didn’t see anything that particularly worried me last night.

[cow]

How differently do we look at last night if Reggie makes a little dump off and Josh scores points 10 and 11 (and maybe gets the and-one) on a highlight reel dunk.  

Less like a pumpkin but still orange.  #JoshPumpkinWatch

[chaparral]

When do the Mavs have to pick-up the TO on Green's 23/24 season?

[SleepingHero]

I felt like Josh regressed a bit from game 1.

Game 1 he was timid, but still looking to get involved. He took 2 or 3 uncharacteristic pull up jumpers (2 from 3pt iirc). He was aggressive more than he had ever been.  Game 2 was more like the Josh of old. Dude is afraid of making mistakes out there, and I don't think it's because of the coaching staff making him feel that way. I just think he's so risk averse that unless there is a play that is 90%+ chance of working he wont make it. Which is odd because Josh really does have fantastic instincts. 

Compare that with Hardy who hasn't seen a shot he doesn't love and just plays without thinking. There is a middle ground for both of them, although I think if I had to choose a player to play with, give me a guy who wants to make play vs. a guy who's afraid to call his own number.

If I'm going to make a prediction, I think Josh stays timid till at least December. By then he'll get into the groove of the season and it'll be a breaking point imo. Either he'll finally play and we'll see breakout Josh getting 20+mpg, or he'll never be anything and Mavs should cut their losses asap.

[DanSchwartzgan]

When do the Mavs have to pick-up the TO on Green's 23/24 season?

10/31 I believe

[DanSchwartzgan]

I felt like Josh regressed a bit from game 1.

Game 1 he was timid, but still looking to get involved. He took 2 or 3 uncharacteristic pull up jumpers (2 from 3pt iirc). He was aggressive more than he had ever been.  Game 2 was more like the Josh of old. Dude is afraid of making mistakes out there, and I don't think it's because of the coaching staff making him feel that way. I just think he's so risk averse that unless there is a play that is 90%+ chance of working he wont make it. Which is odd because Josh really does have fantastic instincts. 

Compare that with Hardy who hasn't seen a shot he doesn't love and just plays without thinking. There is a middle ground for both of them, although I think if I had to choose a player to play with, give me a guy who wants to make play vs. a guy who's afraid to call his own number.

I’m a little strange, but I tend to question things when a point of view starts to become a commonly held narrative.  Questions like ‘what is the right number of shots for Josh or Hardy’?  ‘Who should we compare them to among teammates who do take enough shots’?  ‘Do the numbers support the eye-test’?

So, who should we compare Josh’s attempts to?  I’d probably argue Bullock, DFS and Maxi are one possible grouping if your view of Josh is 3&D guy.  Dinwiddie, Brunson and THJ might be another grouping if you think Josh is a ball handling scorer.  Last year Josh got up 8.75 attempts per 36.  That compares to Bullock (9.5), DFS (9.4) and Maxi (8.8)…average is 9.25.  So, Josh does shoot less than this group by half a shot per 36.  It is less, but not egregiously so.  I can’t recall anyone saying those three are timid, but at relatively the same pace of attempts, Josh is. 

In game one (which you graded as timid, but looking to get involved) his five attempts end up as 8 attempts per 36.  In game two, his 4 attempts in fewer minutes actually grades out at 9.75 attempts per 36.  I think the eye test is much more dependent on whether they go in than we realize.

BTW, the Hardaway (15.3), Brunson (14.4) and Dinwiddie (13.5) grouping averages 14.4 shot attempts per 36.  If that is the proper group to compare Green to, then yes, he’s way underperforming in the attempts department.  I just think Bullock is a much closer comp to what Josh is asked to do (reasonable people can disagree…the main thing is finding a standard).  Josh was only about a shot every other game light last year.  Time will tell on this year.  

I’ve been making a point to talk about games where Josh gets 20 minutes or more.  In those games last year, his attempts moved from his average of 8.75 to 9.4…basically the same number of attempts as Dorian takes (and no one calls Dorian timid).  Of course, Dorian is a miraculous undrafted player developmental story.  Josh is a dog of a first round pick who should have been any of a half dozen other players instead.  I get that there are open shots that Josh seems to pass up every game (I actually think Maxi is worse at this).  But, I think there is at least a bit of confirmation bias in the timid narrative.

BTW-II, Hardy’s attempts per 36 in game one ended up at 24 (Luka takes 22 attempts per 36).  In game two it ‘moderated’ to 18.4 (a pace that is 20% greater than what Hardaway shoots).  As you say, there is a happy medium for both.  Personally, I feel Hardy as further away from his (based on role) than Green is from his.

[cow]

I think the eye test is much more dependent on whether they go in than we realize.

I don't really agree here.  It's more about feel.  And as far as Josh being a 3&D guy, I'm not really sold on his defense.  Maybe Clarkson just owns his soul and that series is burned in my head, but no matter how connected Josh was, it never seemed to bother him.  

As far as the per 36 numbers are concerned, I'd be curious to see the breakdown of Jaden with the first team versus his run with the end of the bench guys.

[DanSchwartzgan]

As far as the per 36 numbers are concerned, I'd be curious to see the breakdown of Jaden with the first team versus his run with the end of the bench guys.

Fair point.  In the first half of the OKC game, Hardy’s attempt per 36 was 14.4.  Against Orlando it was 15.7.  Both numbers much closer to THJ level attempts that what he did for the full game.

[dirkfansince1998]

I don't really agree here.  It's more about feel.  And as far as Josh being a 3&D guy, I'm not really sold on his defense.  Maybe Clarkson just owns his soul and that series is burned in my head, but no matter how connected Josh was, it never seemed to bother him.  

As far as the per 36 numbers are concerned, I'd be curious to see the breakdown of Jaden with the first team versus his run with the end of the bench guys.

Green slowly replaced Ntilikina in the lineup in the last couple of month of the regular season but after the Jazz series Kidd went back to Frank. And I would argue that with both of them being no shows on offense the decision was all about their defense. For the limited role of 5-15 minutes per game all out pressure on the opposing teams best ballhandler/scorer Josh wasn´t the Mavs first option.
But this year we might be looking at a different role and hopefully the game will start to slow down for him on both ends.

[SleepingHero]

I’m a little strange, but I tend to question things when a point of view starts to become a commonly held narrative.  Questions like ‘what is the right number of shots for Josh or Hardy’?  ‘Who should we compare them to among teammates who do take enough shots’?  ‘Do the numbers support the eye-test’?

So, who should we compare Josh’s attempts to?  I’d probably argue Bullock, DFS and Maxi are one possible grouping if your view of Josh is 3&D guy.  Dinwiddie, Brunson and THJ might be another grouping if you think Josh is a ball handling scorer.  Last year Josh got up 8.75 attempts per 36.  That compares to Bullock (9.5), DFS (9.4) and Maxi (8.8)…average is 9.25.  So, Josh does shoot less than this group by half a shot per 36.  It is less, but not egregiously so.  I can’t recall anyone saying those three are timid, but at relatively the same pace of attempts, Josh is. 

In game one (which you graded as timid, but looking to get involved) his five attempts end up as 8 attempts per 36.  In game two, his 4 attempts in fewer minutes actually grades out at 9.75 attempts per 36.  I think the eye test is much more dependent on whether they go in than we realize.

I'm looking less at the number of attempts he's taking but rather what did in the lead up to those shots. I want Josh to be more proactive and less reactive when it comes to scoring. How many aggressive drives has he had so far vs. standing in the corner for a set shot? Is he creating off the dribble?

So far he's at his most comfortable standing in the far corner waiting for a kickout where he can move the ball to the next man. Nothing wrong here and plenty of players survived hitting those type of shots, but Josh is still hesitant even taking them. 

I’ve been making a point to talk about games where Josh gets 20 minutes or more.  In those games last year, his attempts moved from his average of 8.75 to 9.4…basically the same number of attempts as Dorian takes (and no one calls Dorian timid).  Of course, Dorian is a miraculous undrafted player developmental story.  Josh is a dog of a first round pick who should have been any of a half dozen other players instead.  I get that there are open shots that Josh seems to pass up every game (I actually think Maxi is worse at this).  But, I think there is at least a bit of confirmation bias in the timid narrative.

BTW-II, Hardy’s attempts per 36 in game one ended up at 24 (Luka takes 22 attempts per 36).  In game two it ‘moderated’ to 18.4 (a pace that is 20% greater than what Hardaway shoots).  As you say, there is a happy medium for both.  Personally, I feel Hardy as further away from his (based on role) than Green is from his.

Whether or not there is confirmation bias regarding the timid narrative is inconsequential to me because I don't think anyone here will deny that Green hesitates more often than not. And I think that is biggest hurdle for Josh being a valued rotation player. He's shown he can do it in bursts, but he needs a mindset change on the court or else he won't last. 


With Hardy I totally agree. He is a ways away from reigning in those Melo tendencies. I definitely think Green is closer than Hardy in fixing his issues.

[cow]

Green slowly replaced Ntilikina in the lineup in the last couple of month of the regular season but after the Jazz series Kidd went back to Frank. And I would argue that with both of them being no shows on offense the decision was all about their defense. For the limited role of 5-15 minutes per game all out pressure on the opposing teams best ballhandler/scorer Josh wasn´t the Mavs first option.
But this year we might be looking at a different role and hopefully the game will start to slow down for him on both ends.

I think the replacement in the playoffs was pretty simple and not much to do with defense.  Josh refused to shoot open threes, Frank would pull the trigger.  

It's a preseason overreaction on my part, but Josh doesn't seem to understand how to insert his aggressiveness into games.  He's at his best when he's scrambling.  That seems to be an easy delineation between overthinking (when to be aggressive) versus not thinking/just playing (scrambling).  

I love to be the party pooper and I was always skeptical of the offseason Josh Green hype.  The preseason so far has confirmed my feelings.  As always, I'm usually wrong but the pumpkin watch is still on.

Further, the Mavs are a would be contender so there are only so many development minutes to go around.  I'd prefer those minutes go to the ones with the most upside.  It's why I'd prefer Josh over Frank at this point even if what Frank gives you game in and game out is more consistent, I think Frank is pretty much a finished product.  In that same vein, I'd take Jaden over Josh.  Maybe that's "new toy" syndrome.

[cow]

Whether or not there is confirmation bias regarding the timid narrative is inconsequential to me because I don't think anyone here will deny that Green hesitates more often than not. And I think that is biggest hurdle for Josh being a valued rotation player. He's shown he can do it in bursts, but he needs a mindset change on the court or else he won't last. 


With Hardy I totally agree. He is a ways away from reigning in those Melo tendencies. I definitely think Green is closer than Hardy in fixing his issues.

Re: Josh.  Maybe he's hard to coach.  Not as in being stubborn or a bad student, but maybe he's not the type that takes criticism well and it leads to self doubt.  There is nothing wrong with being sensitive, I'm guilty of that myself.  I mentioned that conversation he and Kidd had after a scrimmage and Josh looking a little dejected.  I then think about all the hype for Josh coming out of training camp, it kind of felt like trying to build the kid up and give him confidence.  I further think about that podcast Spencer was on and how miserable his time was in the league at the start of his career- and how he navigated the business.  Spencer was successful because he had supreme confidence.  And now we are into preseason games and there isn't a lot to distinguish from last year.  

Re: Hardy.  I'm not sure that's a fair assessment.  He's shown growth from summer league to preseason.  The first thing out of the coaches mouths when talking about him his how hard he is working.  And at the end of the day, I'd far prefer being over aggressive than timid.  I can find a way to make overaggressive work with second units.  There isn't much place for a timid player on the court.

[dirkfansince1998]

I think the replacement in the playoffs was pretty simple and not much to do with defense.  Josh refused to shoot open threes, Frank would pull the trigger.  

It's a preseason overreaction on my part, but Josh doesn't seem to understand how to insert his aggressiveness into games.  He's at his best when he's scrambling.  That seems to be an easy delineation between overthinking (when to be aggressive) versus not thinking/just playing (scrambling).  

I love to be the party pooper and I was always skeptical of the offseason Josh Green hype.  The preseason so far has confirmed my feelings.  As always, I'm usually wrong but the pumpkin watch is still on.

Further, the Mavs are a would be contender so there are only so many development minutes to go around.  I'd prefer those minutes go to the ones with the most upside.  It's why I'd prefer Josh over Frank at this point even if what Frank gives you game in and game out is more consistent, I think Frank is pretty much a finished product.  In that same vein, I'd take Jaden over Josh.  Maybe that's "new toy" syndrome.

Agree on the Frank being a finished product part. But I think for the role the Mavs wanted them to play last season (on ball defense specialist) he is the better option. If Green isn´t showing me anything new this season I would take 10 minutes of Frank to guard the Booker´s and Curry´s of the league.
I guess the question for the future is included in the second part of your post. Can Green reach another level and earn himself a bigger role.

Still view Hardy as a big gamble. He is a chucker. Too early to to tell if that is a good/bad thing. Have no clue where he fits into the hierarchy.