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THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green
#81
My deal with THJ is, he has shown to be quite a bit less than when coming off the bench. He also has shown even more less than so far under Kidd. What if he comes back from injury and looks the same as before he went out? A shooter with a less than reputation of playing defense that is shooting 33.6% from 3? That’s a disaster and is not out of the realm of possibility with players coming off injury. It would also IMO take him out of being an asset at the TDL. If he picks it up toward the end of the season and has a good postseason, THEN we’re talking about him as an asset (because his contract also drops). 

He could come out as great as you guys are thinking as well, but both scenarios are far from a sure thing.
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#82
(07-26-2022, 01:05 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: My deal with THJ is, he has shown to be quite a bit less than when coming off the bench. He also has shown even more less than so far under Kidd. What if he comes back from injury and looks the same as before he went out? A shooter with a less than reputation of playing defense that is shooting 33.6% from 3? That’s a disaster and is not out of the realm of possibility with players coming off injury. It would also IMO take him out of being an asset at the TDL. If he picks it up toward the end of the season and has a good postseason, THEN we’re talking about him as an asset (because his contract also drops). 

He could come out as great as you guys are thinking as well, but both scenarios are far from a sure thing.

Know as I type this that I never wanted to extend THJ.  

-I think you keep him through the season no matter what.  THJ's last two years at 18m and 16m are a decent trade chip.  He's someone you could include in a larger deal and the other team wouldn't have to hold their noses.
-I think you keep him for the rest of his contract.  The dude loves being here and no one should underestimate that.  If he doesn't fit with Kidd, than that needs to get sorted out as you resigned THJ when we knew Kidd was going to be the next coach.  We need to get out of the habit of jettison every player we trade for or sign in free agency as that surely helps other free agents not want to come here.  A long term investment in THJ would be the first in a player we didn't draft or sign as a UDFA in God knows how long.
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#83
(07-26-2022, 01:05 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: My deal with THJ is, he has shown to be quite a bit less than when coming off the bench. He also has shown even more less than so far under Kidd. What if he comes back from injury and looks the same as before he went out? A shooter with a less than reputation of playing defense that is shooting 33.6% from 3? That’s a disaster and is not out of the realm of possibility with players coming off injury. It would also IMO take him out of being an asset at the TDL. If he picks it up toward the end of the season and has a good postseason, THEN we’re talking about him as an asset (because his contract also drops). 

He could come out as great as you guys are thinking as well, but both scenarios are far from a sure thing.

I'm not too worried about the fairly small sample of THJ last year.  The whole team (and NBA for that matter) struggled from three the first couple of months of the season.  I do think it would make sense to put him in the opening lineup with McGee, Dorian, Bullock and Luka.  His spacing and quick trigger would fit nicely there, and Din makes more sense in 5 out lineups when he has some space to get the rim.
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#84
(07-26-2022, 02:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not too worried about the fairly small sample of THJ last year.  The whole team (and NBA for that matter) struggled from three the first couple of months of the season.  I do think it would make sense to put him in the opening lineup with McGee, Dorian, Bullock and Luka.  His spacing and quick trigger would fit nicely there, and Din makes more sense in 5 out lineups when he has some space to get the rim.

Agreed from top to bottom.
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#85
(07-26-2022, 02:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not too worried about the fairly small sample of THJ last year.  The whole team (and NBA for that matter) struggled from three the first couple of months of the season.  I do think it would make sense to put him in the opening lineup with McGee, Dorian, Bullock and Luka.  His spacing and quick trigger would fit nicely there, and Din makes more sense in 5 out lineups when he has some space to get the rim.
Fact of the matter is, he’s a career 35.8% 3 point shooter (not a fairly small sample size). Regressing to the mean is much more likely than continuing on the 2 year aberration (isn’t this the argument for Bertans to get back to what he was?). Especially if he’s coming off the bench where he has struggled in the past.
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#86
Also, 42 games at 33.6% is not that small a sample size.
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#87
(07-26-2022, 03:03 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Fact of the matter is, he’s a career 35.8% 3 point shooter (not a fairly small sample size). Regressing to the mean is much more likely than continuing on the 2 year aberration (isn’t this the argument for Bertans to get back to what he was?). Especially if he’s coming off the bench where he has struggled in the past.

His catch and shoot and wide open shots have always been good percentages, and he gets more of those with Luka then he has in the past, so there is good reason to think he will shoot better than his career average with the Mavs.  I also think its important to mention that his raw 3 percentage is not the only factor that defines him as an offensive player.  The fact that he can get his shot off at will and with high volume has value in itself.  He is also not just a 3 point specialist as he takes plenty of 2 point shots.  He is a scorer that can space the floor and get you 15 a game.  If his 3% goes down a couple percent, it won't have that big an impact on his game.
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#88
(07-26-2022, 02:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not too worried about the fairly small sample of THJ last year.  The whole team (and NBA for that matter) struggled from three the first couple of months of the season.  I do think it would make sense to put him in the opening lineup with McGee, Dorian, Bullock and Luka.  His spacing and quick trigger would fit nicely there, and Din makes more sense in 5 out lineups when he has some space to get the rim.

I know it's just for probably 6 minutes, but it'd be Luka handling the rock the whole time and no other answer since none of the other 4 guys can handle the ball to a decent degree. Still is an option if we want to go full Hero ball since THJ's C&S game is when he's at his best, but I really would run from THJ having a spotlight, specially at the start of games. 

So far I'd go with a 10-man lineup of:

Luka, Spencer, DFS, Wood (roughly 30-35 mpg) - Yes, an overreliance on Spencer, since we don't have another capable ballhandler. I'm expecting Wood to excel here in a 2nd option role given his tools. Shouldn't have to mention Luka/DFS leading in minutes.

THJ, Maxi, Bullock (roughly 23-27 mpg) - Reducing Bullock a bit to give light for Green's emergence (title of the thread). THJ comes back to his 6th man role coming back from injury and Maxi replies his good role in past seasons.

Green, McGee, Ntilikina (roughly 8-16 mpg) - Here we'll have a good input if Green belongs. McGee is a scratch for me, but worth a shot since we already paid the man (DP could eat this role, but I guess we needed the shot-blocking/rebounding ability now that we have a bunch of switchable defenders.

Leaves as next man up mentality:

Hardy (guard)
Bertans (forward) 
DP (center)
Pinson/Dorsey (cheer/G-League)

Maybe I'm underrating Bertans and should put him in place of Green or Frank, but personally I just want to play youger guys in our defensive oriented system.
We just paid a whole lot of money to a guy that went 9-29 (31%) on FG and 3-20 (15%) 3-pt% in both our win or go home elimination games last couple of playoffs. SMH 
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#89
I hope Dorsey, Hardy, Green and Frank are all in competition for each others minutes.  

I'm not fan of Bertans but I loved his mentality in the playoffs.  I like that he gets real aggressive when he gets frozen out of the offense.  I'd like to see him get minutes and I'd like to see the offense run sets and action to get him looks.
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#90
(07-26-2022, 03:37 PM)mvossman Wrote: His catch and shoot and wide open shots have always been good percentages, and he gets more of those with Luka then he has in the past, so there is good reason to think he will shoot better than his career average with the Mavs.  I also think its important to mention that his raw 3 percentage is not the only factor that defines him as an offensive player.  The fact that he can get his shot off at will and with high volume has value in itself.  He is also not just a 3 point specialist as he takes plenty of 2 point shots.  He is a scorer that can space the floor and get you 15 a game.  If his 3% goes down a couple percent, it won't have that big an impact on his game.
I think you guys are banking on him being the same player as he was for 2 years of his 9 year career way too much more than you should be. There’s a chance he does come back and do what you’re saying. I don’t think you’re giving any credence to the possibility that he might not.
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#91
(07-26-2022, 04:06 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I think you guys are banking on him being the same player as he was for 2 years of his 9 year career way too much more than you should be. There’s a chance he does come back and do what you’re saying. I don’t think you’re giving any credence to the possibility that he might not.

His first three years were on his rookie contract starting at age 21.  Most guys take a few years to get acclimated to the league so I am not going to hold that against him.  His last year with Atlanta he was good enough to land that "albatross" contract.  That is the guy we were hoping to get in the trade, and that is the guy we got.  He was a bit of a chucker in NY, but that org was a shit show.  For the most part we are simply looking for Atlanta/Mavs Timmy and not NY Timmy.
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#92
(07-26-2022, 03:42 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: I know it's just for probably 6 minutes, but it'd be Luka handling the rock the whole time and no other answer since none of the other 4 guys can handle the ball to a decent degree. Still is an option if we want to go full Hero ball since THJ's C&S game is when he's at his best, but I really would run from THJ having a spotlight, specially at the start of games. 

That is basically what we did in 2020 with Powell as the roll man and KP was basically another floor spacer.  You don't want to be doing that all game, particularly in the playoffs and at the end of games, but that is the basic model for the best NBA regular season offense in history.  In most regular season games you could easily get away with 15-20 minutes a game of that.
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#93
(07-26-2022, 04:24 PM)mvossman Wrote: His first three years were on his rookie contract starting at age 21.  Most guys take a few years to get acclimated to the league so I am not going to hold that against him.  His last year with Atlanta he was good enough to land that "albatross" contract.  That is the guy we were hoping to get in the trade, and that is the guy we got.  He was a bit of a chucker in NY, but that org was a shit show.  For the most part we are simply looking for Atlanta/Mavs Timmy and not NY Timmy.
I’m looking at Dal Timmy who isn’t as effective coming off the bench, which you still have yet to address. I’m also looking at coming off injury Timmy which sometimes takes a year to get back to normal. I’m also looking at Kidd Timmy that didn’t show to fit very well. I’m looking at Dal with Kidd and Timmy and Dal with Kidd but without Timmy. I think a case to be made that it’s fine to move off of Timmy as soon as possible is not as far fetched as you’re making it out to be.
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#94
(07-26-2022, 04:39 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I’m looking at Dal Timmy who isn’t as effective coming off the bench, which you still have yet to address. I’m also looking at coming off injury Timmy which sometimes takes a year to get back to normal. I’m also looking at Kidd Timmy that didn’t show to fit very well. I’m looking at Dal with Kidd and Timmy and Dal with Kidd but without Timmy. I think a case to be made that it’s fine to move off of Timmy as soon as possible is not as far fetched as you’re making it out to be.

It depends on what "move off" means.  If you mean trade for another useful player then sure.  If you mean dump him for a crappy expiring to get off his contract as soon as possible, we will have to agree to disagree.  I think that makes us a worse team, and I'm not sure it puts us in an any better cap/asset situation.
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#95
(07-26-2022, 05:29 PM)mvossman Wrote: It depends on what "move off" means.  If you mean trade for another useful player then sure.  If you mean dump him for a crappy expiring to get off his contract as soon as possible, we will have to agree to disagree.  I think that makes us a worse team, and I'm not sure it puts us in an any better cap/asset situation.
This discussion was started by the trade proposal of Burks/Walker for THJ. If Burks is able to fit in with the group and put up the numbers DS showed, I wouldn’t really think of that as a dump. I don’t want Walker, but for 1 year until the contract expires, he should be decent enough insurance (mind you, I don’t think he’s as good as Dragic would’ve been).
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#96
(07-26-2022, 05:42 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: This discussion was started by the trade proposal of Burks/Walker for THJ. If Burks is able to fit in with the group and put up the numbers DS showed, I wouldn’t really think of that as a dump. I don’t want Walker, but for 1 year until the contract expires, he should be decent enough insurance (mind you, I don’t think he’s as good as Dragic would’ve been).

I'm on the fence with Burks.  He had a career year at 30.  What does that mean?  If he is the guy he was last season (basically Bullock with a little more passing ability) then I would be up for it.  If he is what he was the rest of his career, then I am not interested.
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#97
THJ COULD BE the best player in that trade. He also could not be. The defense, to me, is also what is of the greatest value on this team to me too!
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#98
(07-26-2022, 05:56 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm on the fence with Burks.  He had a career year at 30.  What does that mean?  If he is the guy he was last season (basically Bullock with a little more passing ability) then I would be up for it.  If he is what he was the rest of his career, then I am not interested.
Hmmm, I finally looked at his stats and I don’t really see what you’re saying at all. Looks like his biggest issue is his ability to stay healthy in all honesty. Last year was his most games played pretty much by far. His last 3 years of stats are pretty much perfect for the role he would play here (as far as career year last year? Most of his stats declined from the year before). He doesn’t have the flashy ppg stat that we know THJ can produce, but 12 ppg off the bench on pretty good efficiency is all we need if he’s a plus defender. He would for sure solidify our middle of the roster and then next year if he fits can sign to a smaller deal.


I would much prefer a better ball handler than Walker in the deal, but him expiring makes it less a concern.
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#99
(07-28-2022, 07:52 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Hmmm, I finally looked at his stats and I don’t really see what you’re saying at all. Looks like his biggest issue is his ability to stay healthy in all honesty. Last year was his most games played pretty much by far. His last 3 years of stats are pretty much perfect for the role he would play here (as far as career year last year? Most of his stats declined from the year before). He doesn’t have the flashy ppg stat that we know THJ can produce, but 12 ppg off the bench on pretty good efficiency is all we need if he’s a plus defender. He would for sure solidify our middle of the roster and then next year if he fits can sign to a smaller deal.


I would much prefer a better ball handler than Walker in the deal, but him expiring makes it less a concern.

He has been a poor defender throughout most of his career, but has improved to a little better than average the last year or two.  If I look at him a little more deeply, he was better his prior two seasons than he had ever been, so it makes me feel better that he has been trending instead of a single outlier.  Everything did come together for him last season.  He played the best defense of his career, the most games, games started and minutes of his career, and managed to maintain his offensive efficiency.  

I still think Timmy is the better player.  You can make the argument that Burks is the better fit.  A straight up trade of Timmy for Burks makes some sense as it would save 9 mil of tax (and I think Detroit can absorb the cap).  I have no interest in taking Kemba on at 10 mil.  If he gets bought out, he might be somebody to consider at vet min, but it makes no sense to save a roster spot to include him in that trade.  I will be super pissed if it turns out we told Dragic he would ride the pine because we are bringing in Kemba freaking Walker.
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(07-26-2022, 02:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: I'm not too worried about the fairly small sample of THJ last year.  The whole team (and NBA for that matter) struggled from three the first couple of months of the season.  I do think it would make sense to put him in the opening lineup with McGee, Dorian, Bullock and Luka.  His spacing and quick trigger would fit nicely there, and Din makes more sense in 5 out lineups when he has some space to get the rim.

My thoughts exactly. What did we all truly think of this team on 1/1/22? While THJ will never be perfect and may not be an ideal fit for Kidd, I think he shows much better this season and becomes a piece that can fill out an inpactful trade by the TDL.
" I always wanted to be a basketball player. Nothing more, nothing less." - Dirk Nowitzki
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