THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[DanSchwartzgan]

If JG can be the 3rd of the 2-way wings, another genuine 3-and-D guy to rotate with DFS and Bullock, that would be huge. The article was certainly offering reasons for optimism, and from someone who has skins on the wall and might know.

If so, then there's only that 1 gaping hole left to fill, the 3rd Offense Creator.

Maybe in time that's their aim for Hardy, but he's a long way away and they definitely need someone this season. You can't seriously start a season with no real backup at all for TWO starters (Luka and SD) -- they need rest, need a backup, need to be prepared in case of injury to one or both, etc. The declaration to Dragic that he would only play every 5th game or so makes no sense, unless ....

Unless they didn't see him as the 3rd guy. It fits if they wanted him in the Trey Burke role and already had a 3rd guy lined up. It kinda fits if they think Dragic just wouldn't be good enough to be that 3rd guy, but dang he'd be so far better than what they seem to have in view right now.

I have to think they have someone lined up who isn't available at the moment, but might become so in the weeks ahead. That would eliminate current free agents. Which brings me back to Rose, if the Knicks pursuit of Mitchell has temporarily gotten in the way, or it might be Kemba, whose reported buyout has been delayed for some unknown reason.

I’ll repeat something I’ve said before.  The Knox exception signing in Detroit is also not final as they still have cap room and would need to hold off on using the part of the exception going to Knox if they plan to use the space.  It is $10mm of space without Knox.  If Dallas sends Powell to Utah and Kemba comes to Dallas, there is room for Detroit to eat $19mm of salary.  I don’t think Utah wants 3 years of Fournier starting at $18mm, but Detroit might and he fits the room they have if Kemba is outgoing to Dallas.

Edit:  Related to Dragic, I heard one of the Dallas beat guys on a podcast theorize that it wasn’t so much “the Burke role”, Dallas was asking him to play.  It was more about saving himself for the playoffs and giving developmental minutes to players currently on the roster.  I wonder if Kemba would similarly get a good dose of nights off as they invest some time in some of the younger guys.

[F Gump]

I’ll repeat something I’ve said before.  The Knox exception signing in Detroit is also not final as they still have cap room and would need to hold off on using the part of the exception going to Knox if they plan to use the space.  It is $10mm of space without Knox.  If Dallas sends Powell to Utah and Kemba comes to Dallas, there is room for Detroit to eat $19mm of salary.  I don’t think Utah wants 3 years of Fournier starting at $18mm, but Detroit might and he fits the room they have if Kemba is outgoing to Dallas.

Very interesting observations. I hadn't considered Kemba via trade. I like him at the minimum, but much less so at 9M.

I think you are onto something with the idea of DET being involved in a Mitchell trade. Your specifics of how they could help make sense, and are intriguing.

There are multiple ways the Mavs could then participate. NY-UT wouldn't need Dallas and Powell for that concept you describe, if they just did Fournier to DET, and Kemba to UT, so other angles may be needed. I'd love to see Rose as part of what had to be moved, then off-loaded to DAL instead --- although, as I think about it, Thibs would probably revolt if he lost Rose. But if he was expendable, for something like Powell-Ntilikina to UT, I'm in.

I do think if Kemba was sent to UT, UT would very likely buy him out. UT will have way too many bodies if they do a Mitchell deal - in fact, may already have way too many after Gobert.

But my favorite would be for the Mavs to send Powell-THJ to UT and get Rose-Bogy back. The money works, it saves UT about 4M this year, and THJ might be attractive to Ainge as a future trade chip since he has a declining-salary contract.

[Chicagojk]

I agree.   I think I may prefer to keep Dwight than Kemba at 9 million, I think. As a minimum guy, I think Kemba could be decent/ok.  He has had some moments the last few years but has quickly fizzled out with a lot of minutes.   I will say if Kemba is the option at the minimum, passing on Dragic would be disappointing.   Although, I sort of like how we are a big team now.   So I wonder if a guy like Bledsoe would be the better option?

[KillerLeft]

I agree.   I think I may prefer to keep Dwight than Kemba at 9 million, I think.

Not me. Both are expiring, but one will help you on the court (when healthy) and kills any idea of rolling with two bigs as a default. 

Give me Kemba if they can’t find anything better.

[F Gump]

   So I wonder if a guy like Bledsoe would be the better option?

Bledsoe is already a FA and available. So he would presumably already be signed, if that was where the Mavs wanted to go.

[F Gump]

Another angle re DET and Kemba is that the Mavs don't have any actual participation planned in a Mitchell deal, but they do have things cooking with DET, and DET is waiting on NY/UT perhaps.

THJ for Burks-Kemba is a legal trade right now. Also doable is Kemba is bought out, and then THJ for Burks.

And of course, since I like Rose better, let's do this one nvolving DET instead: Rose is offloaded to the Mavs in a NY/UT deal for Mitchell, with THJ to DET for Burks, and UT having to take back no player or salary at all except 3 young developing prospects (Toppin, Quickley, Grimes).

UT gets Toppin, Quickley, Grimes, a barrel of picks from NY
NY gets Mitchell
DAL gets Rose-Burks
DET gets THJ

[DanSchwartzgan]

Another angle re DET and Kemba is that the Mavs don't have any actual participation planned in a Mitchell deal, but they do have things cooking with DET, and DET is waiting on NY/UT perhaps.

THJ for Burks-Kemba is a legal trade right now. Also doable is Kemba is bought out, and then THJ for Burks.

And of course, since I like Rose better, let's do this one nvolving DET instead: Rose is offloaded to the Mavs in a NY/UT deal for Mitchell, with THJ to DET for Burks, and UT having to take back no player or salary at all except 3 young developing prospects (Toppin, Quickley, Grimes).

UT gets Toppin, Quickley, Grimes, a barrel of picks from NY
NY gets Mitchell
DAL gets Rose-Burks
DET gets THJ

Interesting.  I like the idea of THJ to Detroit.  It feels like less of a betrayal for him to take less to stay here one year and be traded the next if the trade sends him ‘home’.  I think Burks is a better fit for what Kidd seems to want.  I like losing that third year of Hardaway’s remaining deal and I like turning one player into two.  Are you making THJ for Kemba/Burks into two trades (the second using the TPE created by the first) to do it now and avoid aggregation?

What I hear about the NY/Utah negotiations is all over the place.  I’m pretty certain in my read of things that Utah doesn’t want Barrett or Randle.  As you’ve shown, there are Rose-plus constructs that work, but I also know that Thibs loves him some Rose.  Obviously, Rose can’t be a deal killer for Mitchell, but while you are trying to illustrate paths to get Rose here, I’ve been looking for paths to get Fournier somewhere (and the math works well with the remaining Detroit space).  Its not that I’m against Rose, I’m not.  I hope it works out.  I’m just looking for ways to do the bigger deal that don’t include him leaving NY and don’t include Fournier ending up in Utah.  I do think there is a role in Detroit for what Fournier or Hardaway do…especially if Burks is gone.

[Kammrath]

THJ for Burks-Kemba

I am personally not interested in that swap at all.

[F Gump]

Interesting.  I like the idea of THJ to Detroit.  It feels like less of a betrayal for him to take less to stay here one year and be traded the next if the trade sends him ‘home’.  I think Burks is a better fit for what Kidd seems to want.  I like losing that third year of Hardaway’s remaining deal and I like turning one player into two.  Are you making THJ for Kemba/Burks into two trades (the second using the TPE created by the first) to do it now and avoid aggregation?

To just address this part of your reply ....

I am speculating at the same time on two completely different ways to make "THJ outgoing, with Kemba-Burks incoming" happen. Either works easily, and neither is an aggregation workaround.

Method 1 -
The assumption is that THJ and his scoring potential might be seen as much more desirable to DET than Burks, and the salary difference might be of value to the Mavs because of tax implications, so DET trades Burks for THJ into cap room, and moves to buyout Kemba.
DET buys out Kemba at 7.5M, let's say. (The exact number doesn't matter, but presumably he gets about what he is currently slated to get, minus the veteran minimum approx.) Then Dallas signs Kemba for the minimum.

Method 2 -
DET sends Kemba-Burks to DAL, and Mavs send THJ back in return which is an even money swap more or less. It would lessen DET cap room slightly (by about 0.425M), leaving them with more than 10.5M to play with if needed elsewhere. 

DET has no aggregation restriction on Kemba or Burks in that trade (or in any trade at this point), since they have been doing and would continue to be doing 'cap room' trades.

Re the Rose idea in which NY/UT becomes a 4-way, the moves of Rose to Dallas, and THJ-Burks also occurring, both of those would have to happen in the same trade, so that Dallas can use the THJ outgoing to match both of those salaries.

[F Gump]

What I hear about the NY/Utah negotiations is all over the place.  I’m pretty certain in my read of things that Utah doesn’t want Barrett or Randle.  As you’ve shown, there are Rose-plus constructs that work, but I also know that Thibs loves him some Rose.  Obviously, Rose can’t be a deal killer for Mitchell, but while you are trying to illustrate paths to get Rose here, I’ve been looking for paths to get Fournier somewhere (and the math works well with the remaining Detroit space).  Its not that I’m against Rose, I’m not.  I hope it works out.  I’m just looking for ways to do the bigger deal that don’t include him leaving NY and don’t include Fournier ending up in Utah.  I do think there is a role in Detroit for what Fournier or Hardaway do…especially if Burks is gone.

I agree that NY would prefer Fournier outgoing, far more than Rose.

But I am wishing that Ainge is not interested in salary and veterans in return, and that sending Rose becomes a practical requirement -- because I don't think NY would let keeping Rose be a deal-killer. That's the angle I would hope to see, that would allow the framework of what I'm hoping for. FWIW, some of the room to make that happen comes from DET, of course, but the rest is coming from DAL, as well as presumably the better player in the THJ-Burks swap that then packages all that cap space together to keep UT from having to take Rose.

[F Gump]

I am personally not interested in that swap at all.

Why not? Are you that thrilled about THJ? Or is it the return?

Or is it that you're still convinced a Big Trade is in the works that does magnificent things for the roster? I am definitely not with you on that front, instead working from the assumption that something like this is maybe even more than we should let ourselves wish for. But wishfully speculating.

I'm more inclined to think they are waiting to get Kemba after his buyout. Of course, maybe that itself is dumb. Seems like we were in this loop a year ago, with Dragic, and massive expectations and speculations. And nothing ever happened.

[KillerLeft]

I am personally not interested in that swap at all.

Neither am I. 

I get that it would be turning one player into two, and that the players in question would have roles here, but THJ is the best player in the deal. Superior to the SUM of the other two players, imo.

[Kammrath]

Neither am I. 

I get that it would be turning one player into two, and that the players in question would have roles here, but THJ is the best player in the deal. Superior to the SUM of the other two players, imo.

Yep. THJ is 100% the best player IMO. Have no interest in dumping him for lesser players. If THJ's value is low, then rehab it this year and get it back to what it should be for a NBA shooter.

[Chicagojk]

Yep. THJ is 100% the best player IMO. Have no interest in dumping him for lesser players. If THJ's value is low, then rehab it this year and get it back to what it should be for a NBA shooter.

This is my take as well.

[chaparral]

Maybe we need to look past this upcoming season.  If both Hardaway and Bertans are still here past this season, wont it be hard for Cuban to pay Wood to stay past next year?

So, if we can trade THJ for 2 guys named Burke and Walker we salve a few things.  1. we get our 3rd PG this season.  2. Burke's TO is 7mil cheaper then THJ contract next year.  Take that 7mil and extend Wood for 21mil the following season.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Maybe we need to look past this upcoming season.  If both Hardaway and Bertans are still here past this season, wont it be hard for Cuban to pay Wood to stay past next year?

So, if we can trade THJ for 2 guys named Burke and Walker we salve a few things.  1. we get our 3rd PG this season.  2. Burke's TO is 7mil cheaper then THJ contract next year.  Take that 7mil and extend Wood for 21mil the following season.

Yes.  And, you didn’t even mention Hardaway’s third year.  There is an element of playing chess versus playing checkers here.  The longer term play is the greater flexibility provided by the shorter duration of the incoming Burks/Kemba salaries.

And, that is presuming the THJ > Burks declaration is true.  Last three seasons one player has the higher 3% (over 40% all three years), has the better assist %, the better on-minus-off and WS/48.  That same player has been the better defender by D-EPM, DBPM and D-WS pretty dramatically the last two seasons.  It isn’t Hardaway.

No point getting too worked up though.  Every indication I’ve seen both from Hardaway and from team exec’s say THJ is returning this season.

[F Gump]

I think chaparral's take is insightful. If you have a reasonable way to turn THJ into a useful, needed player or 2, at the 2 positions of need, and you get off of half of his salary going forward, I'm not sure you can expect to find a better deal.

I don't disagree that THJ probably has more in him to show. But to see that, he needs a role where he gets the ball a lot and gets to shoot a lot, and I just don't see how that would be possible with this team as constructed. I see it kinda like the KP deal - in theory you are giving up the better player, but his presence here obstructs progress, and puts a ceiling on his production too. Unless he can become a really stalwart defender, and I don't think he has the disposition in him.

Of course, if you have no sensible offers now, you gotta wait. That's just how it is. But I'm hopeful something like one of these could be out there.

One more thing -- I do think these ideas, if they were available now, would be less viable as we get into the season. DET may buy out Kemba and force a decision there that can't wait. They will also make moves that dry up at least some of that cap room well before camp. And NY's move on Mitchell, and the potential to obtain Rose, will likely be be finished (or scuttled) by camp also. OTOH, a "restored value" for THJ (if that sort of thing is real) can't happen until well into the season. I think if you get something helpful, and that will help both this season AND the summer of 2023 roster-building, you just take it and move on.

[jdb152]

Yes.  And, you didn’t even mention Hardaway’s third year.  There is an element of playing chess versus playing checkers here.  The longer term play is the greater flexibility provided by the shorter duration of the incoming Burks/Kemba salaries.

And, that is presuming the THJ > Burks declaration is true.  Last three seasons one player has the higher 3% (over 40% all three years), has the better assist %, the better on-minus-off and WS/48.  That same player has been the better defender by D-EPM, DBPM and D-WS pretty dramatically the last two seasons.  It isn’t Hardaway.

No point getting too worked up though.  Every indication I’ve seen both from Hardaway and from team exec’s say THJ is returning this season.

Since you have long been one of our best resources on deals and contracts, I'd like to get your take. With the cap set to rise in the range of 10% each season for the next half decade, doesn't THJ's declining deal become more and more of an asset? Would that be a real consideration when playing cap chess? Of course if the right deal comes along, most everyone is available, but I do feel we're all a little guilty of a devaluation on THJ.

As to the topic of Green, are we all being too dismissive of Green's abillity to take a real leap in his third year, second with Kidd? He's about there as a defender and has shown to be a gifted passer. Getting to league average as a shooter makes him a real piece for the rotation. Are we all so convinced he doesn't have that in him?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Since you have long been one of our best resources on deals and contracts, I'd like to get your take. With the cap set to rise in the range of 10% each season for the next half decade, doesn't THJ's declining deal become more and more of an asset? Would that be a real consideration when playing cap chess? Of course if the right deal comes along, most everyone is available, but I do feel we're all a little guilty of a devaluation on THJ.

As to the topic of Green, are we all being too dismissive of Green's abillity to take a real leap in his third year, second with Kidd? He's about there as a defender and has shown to be a gifted passer. Getting to league average as a shooter makes him a real piece for the rotation. Are we all so convinced he doesn't have that in him?

Thanks for the compliment.  I’ve said for a while that I think THJ is more valuable at the TDL or next summer than he is now (coming off of injury).  So, unless you are getting exactly what you want in a Hardaway based deal now, I’d probably wait.  With that said, his prototype (shooter with limited D and limited creation skills) seems to be one where the contracts look the worst shortly after they are signed.  Hield, Bertans, Duncan Robinson and THJ have limited markets IMHO.  Teams need those guys to hit three’s AND do something else (play great D or create for themselves and others).

So, THJ taking up an ever decreasing percentage of the cap also argues for waiting.  If I were handicapping, I’d bet he is part of the outgoing in a deal this summer.  Mike Shedd was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  When asked what Dallas needs to finish the roster, he didn’t say ball handling.  He said wing play and mentioned DFS and kind of mentioned Bullock and didn’t mention THJ at all in the answer about needing wings (though he later paid him a compliment as a hard worker and locker room guy).  I found that interesting.

I’ve been on the Green bandwagon since his rookie year.  I see the flashes and understand how limited his opportunities have been.  Yes, I’m hopeful he makes a big step and makes someone expendable (like THJ or Bullock).  But, the leap isn’t guaranteed.  So, as much as I like him, I put him in deals that I think better balance the roster.  I’m not in favor of a give away for an average veteran (like Burks or Rose), but give me that type of vet and a youngster like McBride or Saben Lee in a position of greater need and I’m OK with Green being part of the outgoing.  It frightens me, but I’m also pretty high on McBride and Lee.

[Kammrath]

So, THJ taking up an ever decreasing percentage of the cap also argues for waiting.  If I were handicapping, I’d bet he is part of the outgoing in a deal this summer.  Mike Shedd was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  When asked what Dallas needs to finish the roster, he didn’t say ball handling.  He said wing play and mentioned DFS and kind of mentioned Bullock and didn’t mention THJ at all in the answer about needing wings (though he later paid him a compliment as a hard worker and locker room guy).  I found that interesting.

Agreed. I personally will be a little surprised (not shocked) if DP and THJ are on the roster to start the season. I will be shocked if they are on the roster post-TDL.

But with that said, I am NOT in Camp "Dump THJ" at all. I think he is better than many Mavs fans think. I think THJ is enough of a trade asset that the Mavs can center a deal around him to fill a need.