THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[Mavsfan12]

At this point I almost wonder if their plan is to run Green as the 3rd PG. Playing point was the only time he looked remotely playable in the playoffs. Not saying it's a good idea but it makes as much sense of their free agency decisions as anything.

Anything is possible with JK.  He famously had some long, athletic Greek kid out there running point for him. Turned out alright.

[MFFL]

Players that have signed an extension on their rookie contract in the 20 years that Cuban owned the team: Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic and Josh Howard.

Let you figure out what the odds are that Green is still here next season.

I assume you are only talking about drafted players? 

And yes, Donnie did a terrible job of drafting

[Winter]

I have said in other posts that Green most likely is packaged in a trade. I feel certain he is in no way an important piece of 2022-23, but it's hard to tell how they feel about his rookie contract since trades are still pending. At any rate, I suspect he is not a Maverick for very long.

The Mavs botched that particular draft pick badly. It wasn't much of a stretch as the 18th pick according to experts, but he was the least interesting of several other players who had stronger offensive skills.

[Jommybone]

. . . The Mavs botched that particular draft pick badly. It wasn't much of a stretch as the 18th pick according to experts, but he was the least interesting of several other players who had stronger offensive skills.

You know, I’m just not gonna let this go. 

The lusted-after Matisse Thybulle:
Age 25
Height 6’5
Wingspan 7’0
Contract 1 yr, 4.4mm
3P% 31.3 (trending down)

The ever-disrespected Josh Green:
Age 21
Height 6’6
Wingspan 6’10
Contract 1 yr, 3.1mm
3P% 35.9 (trending up)

If Green isn’t a Mav this season, it’s because somebody really wanted him in a trade we couldn’t refuse.

[Winter]

You don't have to let it go. I think the board is 50-50 on him. It's just my opinion.

Matisse Thybulle has his warts, but he knew enough about basketball that he could stay in games - even during the playoffs. 

I think uncertainty is JGs problem. I just don't think he knows where he needs to be and the what the right decisions are in certain situations. Sometimes with things like this, it's something you can fix. Sometimes not. I think they (the coaching staff) has had enough to time to know where his trajectory is headed. I realize some people think he's trending upward. I'm just not one of them.

I know he's young, but just because a person is young doesn't mean he's going to "get it" just by playing more. The coaching staff probably already has a handle on what they should do, and I'm as curious as anyone to see what the next few months bring.

[SwisherPrice]

Green still has some potential. Thybulle is 4 years older than him and was a 4-year college player so of course he is more polished. The Mavs play the slowest pace in the league - the slow half court offense isn't something a lot of young players are used to. I hope they keep him simply because they need a few young guys with high motors. If they are worried about paying him another year of his rookie contract then they better be careful because they could also do worse for similar money (ex: Sterling Brown). 

Their roster is the perfect example of why you have to be patient with players. It took some years for DFS, Kleber, and Bullock to become the players they are now. Dinwiddie and Wood are known as scorers now but they did not even average over 10 points until their 4th/5th years.

[mvossman]

You don't have to let it go. I think the board is 50-50 on him. It's just my opinion.

Matisse Thybulle has his warts, but he knew enough about basketball that he could stay in games - even during the playoffs. 

I think uncertainty is JGs problem. I just don't think he knows where he needs to be and the what the right decisions are in certain situations. Sometimes with things like this, it's something you can fix. Sometimes not. I think they (the coaching staff) has had enough to time to know where his trajectory is headed. I realize some people think he's trending upward. I'm just not one of them.

I know he's young, but just because a person is young doesn't mean he's going to "get it" just by playing more. The coaching staff probably already has a handle on what they should do, and I'm as curious as anyone to see what the next few months bring.

Thybulle got 15 minutes a game in the playoffs because he is one of the best defenders in the NBA.  His offense is not any better than Green and he is 4 years older with additional year of experience.  I don't know if Green will improve, but I would rather give it a shot than use him as a throw in for a trade.

[Winter]

Their roster is the perfect example of why you have to be patient with players. It took some years for DFS, Kleber, and Bullock to become the players they are now.

Actually, it didn't. DFS was in the regular rotation during the first year averaging 20 mpg. So was Kleber (16 mpg). Bullock took the longest to get started, but he kept getting traded and kept starting all over.  And Thybulle was getting 20 mpg during his first year and more since.

All of these players had one thing in common. Bullock, Thybulle, and DFS all played at a high level in college for 2-3 years before moving. Kleber had international experience for two years prior. Josh Green did not. One year really wasn't enough for him. He probably needed more. Maybe a lot more. I'm guessing he was a much bigger gamble.

There's two ways to look at this. 1. He needs more time. 2. The Mavs took a swing and missed.

I know where you stand. I think the Mavs have had enough to evaluate him now. We'll see.

[Dundalis]

I think Green can work out. Pretty much the only thing preventing him being a solid bench option is the development of his 3 ball. The problem is I think he's on of those slow burn types because he doesn't have that alpha time mentality, you can see how timid he is a lot of the time on the court. I feel like those types are just naturally slow developers. I don't think he develops into a proper NBA player until he's 23-24 where he could maybe be some semblance of his namesake Danny Green, probably with less shooting ability, but a bit more playmaking (this talk of him being a 3rd ball handler option sounds disastrous to me, he's nowhere near good enough as a ball handler or creator for that). I'd have more confidence in Jaden Hardy taking 3rd ball handler duties than Green, despite that also being a very suboptimal solution, Hardy 100% has one of the most advanced handles from this draft and is directly NBA translatable I think. Problem is we don't necessarily have the time to wait for that because we need to improve the roster now, and it's not like we are not waiting for development on an end product that is that much of a needle mover. He's a decent trade piece in a cupboard full of bad trade pieces.

I don't know that i'd move Green for Thybulle, because I expect another year of development to where Green is just solid enough offensively to warrant more playing time in a playoff run than he got last year, so you aren't moving the needle much as Thybulle has the same problems, and Green is obviously 4 years younger with more scope for offensive development. But including him in any move for someone like Harris that also includes Thybulle is a no brainer.

[Winter]

I think Green can work out.

I think it's a question of value (and you imply the same in your post). He was a 1st round pick and is still destined to get paid that way. The Mavs have cap and tax issues. Those two things may not be compatible.

[mvossman]

I think Green can work out. Pretty much the only thing preventing him being a solid bench option is the development of his 3 ball. The problem is I think he's on of those slow burn types because he doesn't have that alpha time mentality, you can see how timid he is a lot of the time on the court. I feel like those types are just naturally slow developers. I don't think he develops into a proper NBA player until he's 23-24 where he could maybe be some semblance of his namesake Danny Green, probably with less shooting ability, but a bit more playmaking (this talk of him being a 3rd ball handler option sounds disastrous to me, he's nowhere near good enough as a ball handler or creator for that). I'd have more confidence in Jaden Hardy taking 3rd ball handler duties than Green, despite that also being a very suboptimal solution, Hardy 100% has one of the most advanced handles from this draft and is directly NBA translatable I think. Problem is we don't necessarily have the time to wait for that because we need to improve the roster now, and it's not like we are not waiting for development on an end product that is that much of a needle mover. He's a decent trade piece in a cupboard full of bad trade pieces.

I don't know that i'd move Green for Thybulle, because I expect another year of development to where Green is just solid enough offensively to warrant more playing time in a playoff run than he got last year, so you aren't moving the needle much as Thybulle has the same problems, and Green is obviously 4 years younger with more scope for offensive development. But including him in any move for someone like Harris that also includes Thybulle is a no brainer.

I was with you on everything until that last paragraph.  Green and Thybulle struggle equally on offense, and there is reason to believe Green has more upside in that area due to youth and playmaking potential, but Thybulle defense is so elite he has unquestioned NBA value.  I want to take another look at Green, but if we could send him out for Thybulle I think you have to pull that trigger.

[mvossman]

I think it's a question of value (and you imply the same in your post). He was a 1st round pick and is still destined to get paid that way. The Mavs have cap and tax issues. Those two things may not be compatible.

He has no real impact on cap and most of our tax issues are mitigated by letting Brunson walk.  If we start dumping young players with upside because we don't want to pay tax on a 3 mil contract I will lose my shit.

[Chicagojk]

I think Green can work out. Pretty much the only thing preventing him being a solid bench option is the development of his 3 ball. The problem is I think he's on of those slow burn types because he doesn't have that alpha time mentality, you can see how timid he is a lot of the time on the court. I feel like those types are just naturally slow developers. I don't think he develops into a proper NBA player until he's 23-24 where he could maybe be some semblance of his namesake Danny Green, probably with less shooting ability, but a bit more playmaking (this talk of him being a 3rd ball handler option sounds disastrous to me, he's nowhere near good enough as a ball handler or creator for that). I'd have more confidence in Jaden Hardy taking 3rd ball handler duties than Green, despite that also being a very suboptimal solution, Hardy 100% has one of the most advanced handles from this draft and is directly NBA translatable I think. Problem is we don't necessarily have the time to wait for that because we need to improve the roster now, and it's not like we are not waiting for development on an end product that is that much of a needle mover. He's a decent trade piece in a cupboard full of bad trade pieces.

I don't know that i'd move Green for Thybulle, because I expect another year of development to where Green is just solid enough offensively to warrant more playing time in a playoff run than he got last year, so you aren't moving the needle much as Thybulle has the same problems, and Green is obviously 4 years younger with more scope for offensive development. But including him in any move for someone like Harris that also includes Thybulle is a no brainer.

I think this is a good take as well.   

Areas for improvement:
-better three point shooter/free throw shooter
-finishing at the rim--especially being able to create off the dribble.  This will open up his passing
-be a better one on one defender.  I view him as a young puppy dog guarding one on one.  He is all over the place, but a patient offensive player can get to his spot and get good looks on him.  He needs to learn the tricks on defense (leverage, holding, positioning, etc)

[Winter]

He has no real impact on cap and most of our tax issues are mitigated by letting Brunson walk.  If we start dumping young players with upside because we don't want to pay tax on a 3 mil contract I will lose my shit.

That wasn't exactly what I mean - at least not entirely. I mean is there another player where the money is better spent. Green occupies a roster spot at present. Josh's skill set and his trajectory has to be debated for sure. But there are multiple angles to this having to do roster needs than just Josh's player development. And with current trades still pending, he's the most expendable.

I feel like some people have attached themselves to his development without seeing that the front office has to concern itself with making the Mavericks roster more effective. It's going to be hard giving Green minutes in real games if you're not that comfortable using him in his third year with the club.

[F Gump]

It's going to be hard giving Green minutes in real games if you're not that comfortable using him in his third year with the club.

While that is a true statement in general, it's not a real thing so far. The fact that JG didn't play that much in the playoffs is part of the learning curve, and not unusual. But it is not at all an indicator that they have somehow given up on him.

Not meaning to be disrespectful, but your assertion that they need to get rid of him if they see no real future and have better options is a "Well, duh" kind of thing. No one disagrees with that. Not even the Mavs. They could have easily sent him to HOU in the Wood deal if they didn't want him anymore. They are willing to move on when a player isn't in their plans, but apparently they see enough upside where they're continuing and looking for him to contribute, just like with anyone else.

[Winter]

Not meaning to be disrespectful, but your assertion that they need to get rid of him if they see no real future and have better options is a "Well, duh" kind of thing. No one disagrees with that. Not even the Mavs. They could have easily sent him to HOU in the Wood deal if they didn't want him anymore. They are willing to move on when a player isn't in their plans, but apparently they see enough upside where they're continuing and looking for him to contribute, just like with anyone else.

You're not disrespectful.

My "assertion" was almost every poster talks about Green like they know his upside - as if that were the Mavs only consideration. That's the entire conversation in most threads about Green. It's usually about his youth or his defense. I'm saying his "upside" is relative to several other things besides just his personal growth as a player. The Mavs can only wait so long for a useful wing player. I suspect they can get a minimum contract player to be more useful than Green. I personally think that how he ended the season last year was the writing on the wall. So I don't expect him to be on the roster when the 2023 season is over.

[KillerLeft]

My "assertion" was almost every poster talks about Green like they know his upside - as if that were the Mavs only consideration. His "upside" is relative to several other things besides just his personal growth as a player. The Mavs can only wait so long. I personally think that how he ended the season last year was the writing on the wall. So I don't expect him to be on the roster when the 2023 season is over.

I agree with a part of this thinking. I do think this board (and sports fans, in general) tend to think youth automatically means "huge improvement is coming." It's just not true. The established veterans are viewed with disgust because of some things they can't do, but in reality they have broken through and established footholds in the NBA because they have proven that they are the best of the best of the best, on the court, in the locker room, in practice, etc. They're the ones who get it. The young players will mostly fall by the wayside along the way. Very, very few of them will reach anything close to what fans think of as "their potential."

Having said that, I personally believe you might have given up on Green a little too early. I think last season is reason for optimism, not a final nail in the coffin. Yes, it's true he wasn't ready for the playoffs. Neither was Brunson the year before. It's a new level - I don't think the ability to automatically reach that new level without first experiencing it is requisite to having a future in the league. 

But, back to where I agree with you: Green is getting more expensive as we go, and so the chances are getting higher that they'll move on from him as time passes. Mix in the obvious fact the Mavs should be thinking about what they need to win NOW, and it's not difficult to imagine how the window of Green being worth more here than he is as a throw-in getting smaller.

[mvossman]

But, back to where I agree with you: Green is getting more expensive as we go, and so the chances are getting higher that they'll move on from him as time passes. Mix in the obvious fact the Mavs should be thinking about what they need to win NOW, and it's not difficult to imagine how the window of Green being worth more here than he is as a throw-in getting smaller.

We are definitely in win now mode, but I think you still want to have some young guys with upside on the roster.  Right now we have Frank, Green and Hardy with no draft pick next year.  It's not like his 3 mil contract is going to do much in a trade and it doesn't impact cap.  After the great purge in the Wood trade, roster spots are not that valuable either, and the vet min pool is dry.  My thought is if he shows any improvement next season it will probably make sense to pull the trigger on the club option.

[KillerLeft]

We are definitely in win now mode, but I think you still want to have some young guys with upside on the roster. 

Sure, but maybe not ones that are nearing their second contract, getting paid "drafted in the teens" money while not in the rotation. 

I think @"Winter" has too negative opinion of Green's future potential, but I think he's correct that Green could be on the way out, pretty much any day now. 

If he's on the roster to start this season and NOT able to earn a 20 min+, every night rotation spot, I'd absolutely move him at the deadline. Get what you can for him straight up, use him in a bigger deal, whatever.

[Winter]

I fully admit that I have given up on Green 

However, I would say very few players get three years to hang around on an NBA roster just to see if they improve. I think Hardy will be the new flavor-of-the-month.