THE GREEN MACHINE: The Subtle Emergence of Josh Green

[LifeAquatic]

Just now getting to watch the game..

Green is flat out taking his minutes. They have no choice but to keep giving them to him. A difference maker.

[Chicagojk]

Some of those Josh passes last night were Luka-ish.   His confidence he is playing with is eye opening.   How he is attacking the basket and looking to score is making his passing even more dangerous.   It seems like him and Damion Lee were talking a little as well.  I really like this new Josh Green.

[Chicagojk]

https://twitter.com/calliecaplan/status/...16416?s=46&t=DruzXb0mopZFw1NtQqJ2Ww

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ball park figure on Greens contract assuming he keeps trending up?

From a business standpoint, they'd be smart to keep him coming off the bench this season and extend him this summer as a super sub.  As a starter, he'll be pretty expensive this summer.  The number could get crazy a year from now.  If he keeps getting 30+ minutes a game, he'll probably be about 15/4/3 this season with good percentages and good on/off based on his career.  There is upside to some of those numbers.  This season, the five times he's gotten 26 minutes or more he's been 15/3.3/2.6  

For reference, during Michael Finley's age-22 season, he averaged 39 minutes and was 15/4.6/3.5.    On a per 36 basis, Finley at 22 and Green at 22 look very similar (except Green is a better shooter and a MUCH better contributor to his teams on-court success).  Joe Johnson's per 36 his Age-22 season was about a point and an assist better than Finley or Green, but we're just now seeing Josh be let out of the corner.  Green is past the Iggy comparisons at the same age and may stay there because of Green's superior 3 point shot.

Green doesn't have to do much more to be at the level of these guys at the same age.  He just needs the minutes and to keep doing what he's always done when he gets PT.  He's always been much more productive the more time he's gotten...always.  It is really about the time more than needing to 'add' something to his game right now.

[SkenfromLMF]

Who was the reporter that called out Kidd. Kidd said that with Josh playing and contributing in this manner he was going to get PAID.
Somebody told Kidd not to say that... "the last guy you said that about left"
Kidd responded that "wasn't my fault, he got paid. Like I said."

[ItsGoTime]

Who was the reporter that called out Kidd. Kidd said that with Josh playing and contributing in this manner he was going to get PAID.
Somebody told Kidd not to say that... "the last guy you said that about left"
Kidd responded that "wasn't my fault, he got paid. Like I said."

If a person on this board is upset with that, it's at least refreshing to see someone actually speak their mind, which gives us actual information, not cryptic messages saying nothing.

[dynamicalVoid]

All those words and no (dollar)numbers!

[SkenfromLMF]

If a person on this board is upset with that, it's at least refreshing to see someone actually speak their mind, which gives us actual information, not cryptic messages saying nothing.

No, not at all. I wanted to credit him for a great line!

[mvossman]

From a business standpoint, they'd be smart to keep him coming off the bench this season and extend him this summer as a super sub.  As a starter, he'll be pretty expensive this summer.  The number could get crazy a year from now.  If he keeps getting 30+ minutes a game, he'll probably be about 15/4/3 this season with good percentages and good on/off based on his career.  There is upside to some of those numbers.  This season, the five times he's gotten 26 minutes or more he's been 15/3.3/2.6  

For reference, during Michael Finley's age-22 season, he averaged 39 minutes and was 15/4.6/3.5.    On a per 36 basis, Finley at 22 and Green at 22 look very similar (except Green is a better shooter and a MUCH better contributor to his teams on-court success).  Joe Johnson's per 36 his Age-22 season was about a point and an assist better than Finley or Green, but we're just now seeing Josh be let out of the corner.  Green is past the Iggy comparisons at the same age and may stay there because of Green's superior 3 point shot.

Green doesn't have to do much more to be at the level of these guys at the same age.  He just needs the minutes and to keep doing what he's always done when he gets PT.  He's always been much more productive the more time he's gotten...always.  It is really about the time more than needing to 'add' something to his game right now.

I think one thing to point out is Green's insane efficiency.  He is 86% at the rim and 46% from 3 (he does not take mid range shots at all this season).  That efficiency is masking how few shots he takes.  Last night was a good example.  He played over 30 minutes with a 100% TS and only scored 16 points.  His per 36 scoring is less than 13 with that crazy efficiency.  He likely will not be playing that many minutes a game and will likely not hold on to 74% TS for the rest of the season.  His points per game for this season is probably going to be closer to 10-12.

I agree on the starting thing.  You can also make the argument that bringing him off the bench is part of bringing him slowly along.  As long as he is getting 30+ minutes, it does not really matter that much who is starting.

[mvossman]

I hope Kidd doesn't credit himself for this.
Took him long enough to get Green his deserved minutes.

I feel like you could make a fairly good argument that Kidd has handled Green perfectly.  Its hard to remember now, but in Green's first couple of games this season he displayed some of his offensive timidness.  In fact I think one of the regular posters on here said he was done with him right before he started to take off.  Confidence is so important to a basketball player, especially a young one, and Green's confidence after that playoff run was looking fragile.  I think he did a good job bringing him along slowly.  Folks always get frustrated with a coach not making roster moves quick enough, but I think in general its better for the players if moves are made more gradually.

There has been a ton of Kidd bitching this season, but I am starting to come around to the idea that he has some notion of what he is doing.  He has:

Recognized quickly that his choice for starting center was a disaster and removed him entirely from the rotation
Gave all of McGee's minutes to Powell who was originally not planned to be part of the regular rotation
Replaced an underperforming Bullock in the starting lineup with an underperforming Timmy to great results (who was asking for this?)
Has slowly dialed back Bullock's minute while slowly dialing up Greens minutes

Its not been all great.  Would we have won a few more games if he gave Wood another 6-8 minutes when he was playing well?  Why can't this team beat tanking teams or teams missing their best players?  Is it Kidd?  Is it Luka?  Is it the rest of the team?

But I'm starting to see a pattern with Kidd.  There was a lot of complaining early last season as well.  As I step back, I am starting to recognize more good Kidd than bad from a roster management standpoint.  Hopefully it plays out the same way it did last year.

[dynamicalVoid]

Why is no one willing to give a number figure on Green's next contract?  Just a bunch of talking/dancing.

[DallasMaverick]

Why is no one willing to give a number figure on Green's next contract?  Just a bunch of talking/dancing.

$48m / 4 years.

[dynamicalVoid]

$48m / 4 years.

Hey, thanks.


Does he not do everything better than Dorian, though?  While also injecting the team with energy that Dorian doesnt seem to do?  Josh seems to be a better player but also elevate his team more than Dorian.  Also younger.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Why is no one willing to give a number figure on Green's next contract?  Just a bunch of talking/dancing.

Not really a willingness issue.  Just ran out of time this morning.  It is a fairly complex answer.  Do they get it done next summer as an extension?  Do they wait until he’s RFA and let the restricted market set the number?  I think that is two different numbers for his “next contract”.  Let’s assume they are smart enough to do the extension…here are the off-guard comps from the last two summers.  Age and contract status at the time of the deal factor greatly here.  Extensions tend to come at a discount and UFA’s like THJ tend to do better than RFA’s all things being equal.  The salary below is the contact average:

2022

25.0mm. Simons
16.5mm. Dort
14.5mm. Tyus Jones
9.70mm. Monk

2021

18.7mm. THJ
18.2mm. Fournier
18.0mm. N. Powell
17.2mm. Trent Jr.
12.6mm. J. Hart
11.8mm. Graham
9.25mm. Caruso

FWIW, the average is 15.6.  We can quibble about where Green fits on that list or whether I skewed the comps too high (remove Simons and the average is 14.6).  The answer I would have given prior to looking up comps would have been $14mm this summer (average) and a risk of $20mm as the average if done in the summer of 2024 in free agency.  The MLE will be $11mm next summer.  North of that seems appropriate to me.

Some amount of projection is required here.  I have a high opinion of what I see happening by the end of this season.  We have no idea whether he continues to get minutes and continues to shoot efficiently or be as impactful.  When I put him on the list above, I see him North of Josh Hart and a little north of Tyus Jones (though I think Jones may be the best comp right this minute).  If you were a GM of another team and the salaries were equal, would you take Green over Dort?  Trent Jr.?  Norman Powell?  I think $15mm this summer is probably where I see it though I’d ask for a discount since I’m taking some risk of inking this a year early.  I do think he has a chance to get in the 20’s a season and a half from now…especially if a lot of teams have cap space in 2024.

[mvossman]

Not really a willingness issue.  Just ran out of time this morning.  It is a fairly complex answer.  Do they get it done next summer as an extension?  Do they wait until he’s RFA and let the restricted market set the number?  I think that is two different numbers for his “next contract”.  Let’s assume they are smart enough to do the extension…here are the off-guard comps from the last two summers.  Age and contract status at the time of the deal factor greatly here.  Extensions tend to come at a discount and UFA’s like THJ tend to do better than RFA’s all things being equal.  The salary below is the contact average:

2022

25.0mm. Simons
16.5mm. Dort
14.5mm. Tyus Jones
9.70mm. Monk

2021

18.7mm. THJ
18.2mm. Fournier
18.0mm. N. Powell
17.2mm. Trent Jr.
12.6mm. J. Hart
11.8mm. Graham
9.25mm. Caruso

FWIW, the average is 15.6.  We can quibble about where Green fits on that list or whether I skewed the comps too high (remove Simons and the average is 14.6).  The answer I would have given prior to looking up comps would have been $14mm this summer (average) and a risk of $20mm as the average if done in the summer of 2024 in free agency.  The MLE will be $11mm next summer.  North of that seems appropriate to me.

Some amount of projection is required here.  I have a high opinion of what I see happening by the end of this season.  We have no idea whether he continues to get minutes and continues to shoot efficiently or be as impactful.  When I put him on the list above, I see him North of Josh Hart and a little north of Tyus Jones (though I think Jones may be the best comp right this minute).  If you were a GM of another team and the salaries were equal, would you take Green over Dort?  Trent Jr.?  Norman Powell?  I think $15mm this summer is probably where I see it though I’d ask for a discount since I’m taking some risk of inking this a year early.  I do think he has a chance to get in the 20’s a season and a half from now…especially if a lot of teams have cap space in 2024.

I think you have to be careful with what we would take vs what the market pays.  There are a lot of guys I would take over Timmy, or Norman Powell that make a lot less.  The market pays for scoring.  It always has.  That is why Timmy is making more than Dorian even though most of us would rather have Dorian.  I would rather have Caruso than a lot of those guys.

In fact, if we are doing comps, I would say Caruso is probably the closest thing to Green.  Neither take a lot of shots, both are good defenders and both can pass the ball.  Caruso doesn't score much, but he is an elite defender who played next to Lebron in the playoffs and nocked down clutch shots during a championship run.  He got the MLE.  In fact, when you look at the high quality 3&D guys around the league, they don't generally get a lot more than the MLE.  The fact that Green can do more with a basketball than Bullock does not mean as much to the market if he is only scoring 10 points a game.

That Tyus contract looks like an outlier.  I assume that was in free agency and not an extension?  Green will either be an extension or restricted, so that also helps reduce the cost.  If I were to project Green for the rest of the season, I would guess that he continues to come from the bench, gets his minutes regularly into the upper 20s, continues to play well but his efficiency almost has to regress.  Probably looking at roughly 10 points a game with good defense.  If I had to take a stab, I would go with a little over MLE on an extension.  Maybe starting at 12.

Its important to point out that it is really early for this conversation and we are basing this on a very small sample.  Guys have played 20 game stretches where they have played much better than their baseline.  Guys have also had years where they have huge improvement throughout the year.  Hard to know where Green falls in that spectrum right now and his playoff performance could be a big part of the equation.

[SleepingHero]

I still think it's too early to start throwing $ numbers around the next contract for Green. 

If you made me make an offer today it'd probably be 3/42 with the last year being partially guaranteed. Green has shown A LOT of growth these last couple of weeks, but it hasn't been enough for me to confidently commit more than 10 mil a year for multiple years. 

I need to see hoe he plays in the playoffs first.

Still, should he continue his 12-15ppg with great defense and passing, I'd be more than happy to throw 4/55 at him.

[Kammrath]

Still, should he continue his 12-15ppg with great defense and passing, I'd be more than happy to throw 4/55 at him.

He is already worth more than DFS who just got 4 yrs/$55M and averages 8 ppg and 4 rpg.

[mvossman]

He is already worth more than DFS who just got 4 yrs/$55M and averages 8 ppg and 4 rpg.

Dorian didn't get paid on a 20 game sample.  He got paid after being a heavy minute starter for multiple years as one of our best defenders and shooting nearly 40% from 3 on decent volume for multiple years.  He also balled out in the playoffs.

Green has a nice 20 game run and everyone is ready to say he is already better than Dorian.  He might be, and the youth factor and potential growth is definitely worth something, but I'm not ready to say he is already better than DFS just yet.  I need to see more, especially in the playoffs.

[Kammrath]

the youth factor and potential growth is definitely worth something

It is worth a LOT IMO.

[ItsGoTime]

Dorian didn't get paid on a 20 game sample.  He got paid after being a heavy minute starter for multiple years as one of our best defenders and shooting nearly 40% from 3 on decent volume for multiple years.  He also balled out in the playoffs.

Green has a nice 20 game run and everyone is ready to say he is already better than Dorian.  He might be, and the youth factor and potential growth is definitely worth something, but I'm not ready to say he is already better than DFS just yet.  I need to see more, especially in the playoffs.

This is exactly it. No reason to discuss when nothing can be done til the end of the season anyway. I have yet to see dV show his work with such a high demand that we go through this exercise.