Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Game 55: San Antonio Spurs (11-43) vs. Dallas Mavericks (31-23)
(02-16-2024, 03:19 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I don't think its bashing.  I do wonder if it is true.  I think 82 games is a better way to look at this than B-Ref. because you get more context.

For instance, 82 games shows the O-Rating/D-Rating and Net, which this year is 117.7/125.2 for a net of -7.5.  But, they also show that when he's ON Court the team scores 4.9 more points per 100 possessions and gives up 1.8 points more per 100 possessions.  The team ON nets out to -7.7 scoring 115 and giving up 122.7 (so similar to the O-Rating methodology).  But, we also get to see what it looks like when he's off.  The team is -10.9 when he's off.  So, Washington just sucks.  They suck less by 3.1 points per 100 possessions when Gafford plays.  His history is one where that ON number has been bad most seasons (in fact, the last time it was good was his first 1/2 season in Washington).  But, that Net number has been more positive than negative during his time in Washington.

They also attempt to track what they call his 'net positional production'.  The last four seasons they think he outperforms his direct opponent +7.3, +2.6, -0.7 and -4.5.  As you point out, his own production is just massively good every year (like top decile).  But, his opponent production is also high (also top decile...in the wrong direction).  He's managed to hold his own net-net on this metric until this season, but opposing bigs put up good numbers against him

I think you have to put all of this together to try to get some context.  Washington has tended to be bad when he's on the court (but worse than bad when he's off).  He's capable of dominating his direct matchup and put up big numbers.  But he often gives up big numbers (and this season, he's giving up bigger numbers than he gets).  We don't know if that is an effort issue or maybe he's spending so much time cleaning up messes elsewhere that his direct matchup goes to town.  Or, maybe it is 'empty stats' as I've read a little here.

What we do know is so far in Dallas, the team is +3.4 when he's out the court...great, we've closed a huge gap that existed in the non-Lively minutes.  BUT, he's only +2.2 net (which means Lively and Maxi have been even better through three games).  In Washington he was bad (on a bad team), but not as bad as his backup.  Here, he's been good on a 3-0 team, but not as good as the player in front of him.  82 games only has his first two games so far, but they show he's destroying his direct opponent 52.6 (which is off the charts) to 25.6 (which is too high).  It will be interesting to see if he continues to be 'energized' here like he was when he was traded to Washington, or whether that will wear off over time.  

I suspect it will be possible to play him off the court against certain matchups in the playoffs (but we have Maxi).  But, there are certain matchups where his bulk (compared to Maxi) might be valuable.  I suspect Kidd will do a little bit of test-driving to see what he has exactly and it won't put Gafford in the best light while this is going on.  It is nice to have the optionality he brings and to have an answer for certain matchups that we just didn't have before.  I also think playing more against backups and with Lu-Kai will be very beneficial.  But, he's not going to threaten Lively once Lively is healthy.  Lively is the savior.  Gafford is a top-five backup centers (which is by nature a flawed position or they wouldn't be backups).

Excellent post, Dan. Exactly (and more of) what I was trying to say.
Like Reply
All I know is that.... as a longstanding member of the honorable ABCD clan (Anyone But the Clown Dwight), I am ecstatic that the Mavs FO finally got a replacement in Gafford. He is a good addition to the team. It seems like a Change.org petition will not be needed this summer. Big Grin
[-] The following 1 user Likes RGP1981's post:
  • BigDirk41
Like Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozfLukRoQ-w&ab_channel=AwfulCoaching
Like Reply
(02-16-2024, 03:19 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I don't think its bashing.  I do wonder if it is true.  I think 82 games is a better way to look at this than B-Ref. because you get more context.

For instance, 82 games shows the O-Rating/D-Rating and Net, which this year is 117.7/125.2 for a net of -7.5.  But, they also show that when he's ON Court the team scores 4.9 more points per 100 possessions and gives up 1.8 points more per 100 possessions.  The team ON nets out to -7.7 scoring 115 and giving up 122.7 (so similar to the O-Rating methodology).  But, we also get to see what it looks like when he's off.  The team is -10.9 when he's off.  So, Washington just sucks.  They suck less by 3.1 points per 100 possessions when Gafford plays.  His history is one where that ON number has been bad most seasons (in fact, the last time it was good was his first 1/2 season in Washington).  But, that Net number has been more positive than negative during his time in Washington.

They also attempt to track what they call his 'net positional production'.  The last four seasons they think he outperforms his direct opponent +7.3, +2.6, -0.7 and -4.5.  As you point out, his own production is just massively good every year (like top decile).  But, his opponent production is also high (also top decile...in the wrong direction).  He's managed to hold his own net-net on this metric until this season, but opposing bigs put up good numbers against him

I think you have to put all of this together to try to get some context.  Washington has tended to be bad when he's on the court (but worse than bad when he's off).  He's capable of dominating his direct matchup and put up big numbers.  But he often gives up big numbers (and this season, he's giving up bigger numbers than he gets).  We don't know if that is an effort issue or maybe he's spending so much time cleaning up messes elsewhere that his direct matchup goes to town.  Or, maybe it is 'empty stats' as I've read a little here.

What we do know is so far in Dallas, the team is +3.4 when he's out the court...great, we've closed a huge gap that existed in the non-Lively minutes.  BUT, he's only +2.2 net (which means Lively and Maxi have been even better through three games).  In Washington he was bad (on a bad team), but not as bad as his backup.  Here, he's been good on a 3-0 team, but not as good as the player in front of him.  82 games only has his first two games so far, but they show he's destroying his direct opponent 52.6 (which is off the charts) to 25.6 (which is too high).  It will be interesting to see if he continues to be 'energized' here like he was when he was traded to Washington, or whether that will wear off over time.  

I suspect it will be possible to play him off the court against certain matchups in the playoffs (but we have Maxi).  But, there are certain matchups where his bulk (compared to Maxi) might be valuable.  I suspect Kidd will do a little bit of test-driving to see what he has exactly and it won't put Gafford in the best light while this is going on.  It is nice to have the optionality he brings and to have an answer for certain matchups that we just didn't have before.  I also think playing more against backups and with Lu-Kai will be very beneficial.  But, he's not going to threaten Lively once Lively is healthy.  Lively is the savior.  Gafford is a top-five backup centers (which is by nature a flawed position or they wouldn't be backups).

So my comment was mostly driven on defensive impact on the court.  I didn't specify and I don't remember if it was implied by the context of the thread, but that was my intent.  If you look at the stats you posted, his bad team was better when he was on the court, but that was entirely due to his offensive impact.  They were actually slightly worse on defense.  That is surprising when you look at his big rebound and block numbers.  I'm just pointing out this is actual defensive on court impact may not be quite what the stats (or in a lot of cases eye test) say.  Kind of the opposite of Powell who has good on court impact but many folks think he shouldn't be in the league.

This is not saying I don't think he has value, especially for a team struggling with rebounding and rim protection.  I do think the timing is a little ironic given that it happened at same time we discovered that good Maxi is still a thing.  When he is playing like this, a Lively/Maxi/Powell center rotation would have been just fine.  But that is a fragile grouping, and Gafford brings a package that neither Maxi or Powell can provide.
[-] The following 1 user Likes mvossman's post:
  • DanSchwartzgan
Like Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)