GAME 68: DAL (42-26) vs. BOS (41-28)| 95-92 WIN!

[DanSchwartzgan]

And no other player can do that while adding better gravy.

Edit: also, Dan was JUST talking about in the playoffs, they take away your first move. After pick and roll, where does Powell go?

It is a good cliche, but we should probably all hope it doesn't apply here.  The team is 20-4 (.833%)when Powell scores 10 or more points.  16 of those 24 double digit games have come since 12/31.  Meanwhile, the team is 9-14 (.391%) when Powell scores 5 or fewer points.  We are 13-8 (.619%) when Powell scores 6-9 points.  Besides the scoring, Powell is ranked 17th in the league in screen assists which generate another 8 points per game.  

If Powell can't stay on the floor in the playoffs, a huge part of our offense vanishes.  It isn't just a matter of Powell being effective at the rim or not.  "Taking Powell away" also impacts Luka's ability as a PNR ball handler.  Good defenses can force you into things you may not want to do.  The playoff theory regarding a roll man like Powell is you can clog the lane and take away the lob while also being able to recover to the three point line.  In the regular season Luka can score himself, hit Powell for the lob or throw a laser to the corner for a three.  It works.  Powell has the highest TS% of any two man combo with Luka among regulars.  Powell is vastly superior to the other options when Luka gets doubled.  He provides a good outlet in the middle of the floor and generally makes good decisions once he receives the ball with a 4 on 3 advantage.  Maxi provides better D, but teams don't have to "take away Maxi" in the playoffs.  We are playing four on five offensively with Maxi on the floor right now.

We don't really know what will happen once the playoffs get here.  I'd be really worried if all of Powell's good games came against bad competition.  But Dallas counts wins against the following playoff teams when Powell has scored 10 or more points:  UTA (2), MIN, DEN, PHI, MEM, GSW, CHI (2), MIL, TOR and BRK.  We can theorize the larger stage will also kill our three point shooting in the playoffs (it isn't hard to imagine given what we've seen from Bullock, Bertans and Maxi lately).  But, we won't know until we know.  It isn't like Powell and the shooters lit the world on fire last year when we almost beat what was arguably the best team in the west.  We forget how good Hardaway was in that series (especially the wins), but we got nothing from a whole bunch of people besides just Powell.  Dinwiddie replaces THJ (hopefully) and we need to get the current versions of Brunson, DFS and Powell rather than the versions we got last year against LAC.  The D was really the biggest issue last year.  We gave up D-Ratings of 120.3, 124.9, 139.1, 116.1, 109.6, 109.4 and 136.9.  The average is 122.3.  I'm hopeful we won't see anywhere close to those numbers this time.  Since 12/31, we've given up a D-Rating of 122 or more twice in 24 games (a bad loss against GSW and a win against NOP).

[Winter]

There are very few starting C's on that list that don't have their way with Powell. There are also only a couple starting C's on that list that I take Powell over (Looney and Plumlee...if Drummond comes on a small salary that allows us to sit him when he isn't effective, I prefer him over Powell to start), and the ones I'd do it with, the teams are looking strongly to improve that position. If Powell played bigger than he is like Green or Adebayo does (extreme names I know), I wouldn't be having this conversation, but he doesn't. Some of the backup names have their way with Powell even, but I take Powell's contribution over theirs as a backup.

I don't share this opinion entirely, but I appreciate this post because it's a good place to look at what other teams are managing with two bigs. 

Rather than talk about Powell, I would ask what are the Mavericks are look for. If I had to guess, I think it's something like Boston or Toronto rather than something like Utah or New Orleans. You don't need a 7-footer as much as you need an athletic banger who can move his feet and move out on the perimeter. You need someone more muscular than Powell.

While Powell frequently can be out-muscled, at the end of the game he statistically beats out many of those other centers by doing other things and not making mistakes. Still, I agree that we need a big with more muscle inside even if Powell is still around.

[ItsGoTime]

Rather than talk about Powell, I would ask what are the Mavericks are look for. If I had to guess, I think it's something like Boston or Toronto rather than something like Utah or New Orleans.

Not sure that is what Kidd is looking to be like (Boston or Toronto...BTW, both teams are looking for a starting C). It's not sustainable over a full season and playoffs. There's a reason Davis said when he got to LA that he would not be a C during the regular season, but would in the playoffs if needed. There's a lot of wear and tear on smaller bodies having to put out the effort to push against the bigger bodies. 

LAC employs Zubac and starts him on a team full of large wings that COULD do what people around here are thinking is the best way to build. That says it all to me. They do utilize the small ball C during the game as a change of pace/different look, it's not a full-time strategy like those around here want to be.

[ItsGoTime]

Also, I’m not even totally suggesting Powell’s minutes be cut. He’s already playing back up minutes at 21 per game. Bringing in a bigger body to start and play a majority of the other team’s big body minutes with the salary to allow that player to sit when it isn’t advantageous to keep him out there is the compromise I just recently talked about in the Favors trade talk.

[Jason Terry]

Not sure that is what Kidd is looking to be like (Boston or Toronto...BTW, both teams are looking for a starting C). It's not sustainable over a full season and playoffs. There's a reason Davis said when he got to LA that he would not be a C during the regular season, but would in the playoffs if needed. There's a lot of wear and tear on smaller bodies having to put out the effort to push against the bigger bodies. 

LAC employs Zubac and starts him on a team full of large wings that COULD do what people around here are thinking is the best way to build. That says it all to me. They do utilize the small ball C during the game as a change of pace/different look, it's not a full-time strategy like those around here want to be.

Good point on Kidd. We’re not totally sure what he wants to do. It will be clear once we see the postseason and offseason 

Davis is similar to KP in a way. It makes sense to shield them in the reg season and have them do the dirty work only in the playoffs. It’s a shame we couldn’t make it work like that here with KP

The Clippers……yes they use Zubac(and i don’t think anyone is clamoring for a small ball only rotation) but Zubac was a negative last postseason. They didn’t beat us with him. They destroyed us with the wings. It’s almost like we’re at a point in NBA where if you don’t have a small ball option, you will lose

[Jommybone]

Listen, an upgrade would be great at any position. That’s why you call em upgrades. But without a Shaq-like player in the league, it seems obvious to me that what we’ve got works better than a traditional big. 

Somebody who can bang with the big boys would be a nice addition to the team, sure. But short of adding an all star, whoever it is will have trouble getting minutes on this team. Cause it’s a good team already. 

Now, if we can just fix Maxi’s broken deep ball and keep Josh improving on that shot making and, really, everything, the future is now, fellas. It’s the Year of the Luka. Enjoy the ride.

[Winter]

LAC employs Zubac and starts him on a team full of large wings that COULD do what people around here are thinking is the best way to build

Not Zubac in my mind. Even Doncic runs circles around him. In my opinion, he's not the kind of upgrade that makes sense on this team. The one good thing about Dwight Powell is that he moves well. It's just a guess on my part, but I would think Kidd wouldn't want to lose that in the current offense. Zubac is not slow, but I think you would reach for someone who moves better than Zubac.

The Boston/Toronto comparison wasn't about a specific player, but the high usage of active bigs who aren't just slow-footed players living in the paint. Plus, Doncic is making a good living off the P&R. I would think any player coveted by Dallas would be an active player in the P&R. Statistically Mitchell Robinson is both a good P&R man and a good rim protector, so I can see the interest. What they don't want (in my opinion) is a defensive player who can gets burned by smaller players (KP).

[ItsGoTime]

Good point on Kidd. We’re not totally sure what he wants to do. It will be clear once we see the postseason and offseason 

Davis is similar to KP in a way. It makes sense to shield them in the reg season and have them do the dirty work only in the playoffs. It’s a shame we couldn’t make it work like that here with KP

The Clippers……yes they use Zubac(and i don’t think anyone is clamoring for a small ball only rotation) but Zubac was a negative last postseason. They didn’t beat us with him. They destroyed us with the wings. It’s almost like we’re at a point in NBA where if you don’t have a small ball option, you will lose

News flash, the Clippers beat us, and they used him. Sure Luka did his thing to him, that didn’t win us the series though.


Nobody is clamoring for a small ball only lineup? Have you been reading the takes around here?

I would take Zubac over Powell with the team defense we are playing. I don’t think there would be much of a letdown if any at all because he brings intangibles as well as tangibles too. I think the tangibles are more than what Powell brings and there are SOOOOOO many guys around here that bring the intangibles. It’s what all these guys are trying to quantify using advanced stats on this board.

[Arioch]

News flash, the Clippers beat us, and they used him. Sure Luka did his thing to him, that didn’t win us the series though.

Zubac's minutes in last year's series

Game 1:  19  Clippers Loss
Game 2:  22  Clippers Loss
Game 3:  11 - Clippers first win
Game 4:  18 - Luka's injury game, again Clippers Win
Game 5:  20 - Clippers Loss
Game 6:  5 - Clippers Win
Game 7:  3 - Clippers Win

Or in other words, if the Clippers played Zubac against a healthy Luka, we won. To win, they had to keep him off the floor

[ItsGoTime]

Zubac's minutes in last year's series

Game 1:  19  Clippers Loss
Game 2:  22  Clippers Loss
Game 3:  11 - Clippers first win
Game 4:  18 - Luka's injury game, again Clippers Win
Game 5:  20 - Clippers Loss
Game 6:  5 - Clippers Win
Game 7:  3 - Clippers Win

Or in other words, if the Clippers played Zubac against a healthy Luka, we won. To win, they had to keep him off the floor

And 2020:

Game 1: 22 Clippers win
Game 2: 18 Dallas win
Game 3: 29 Clippers win
Game 4: 21 Dallas win
Game 5: 23 Clippers win
Game 6: 33 Clippers win

So they can beat Dallas with or without Zubac.

[ItsGoTime]

The season series is split this year with Zubac averaging more minutes than his season average in minutes. He averages 24mpg as a whole and averaged 28mpg in our head-to-head matches. We're tied 2-2 with Kawhi out all games and PG3 out 2 of them.

They can win with and without him.

[Arioch]

The season series is split this year with Zubac averaging more minutes than his season average in minutes. He averages 24mpg as a whole and averaged 28mpg in our head-to-head matches. We're tied 2-2 with Kawhi out all games and PG3 out 2 of them.

They can win with and without him.

Now I'm confused about what point you are trying to make. I thought you were arguing that Powell is not going to be able to continue his current performance level in the playoffs and so we need to upgrade/add a more traditional center (of which Zubac came up as an example) to which the response was that Zubac is also not useful in the playoffs. In which case not sure why the regular season series is relevant (especially since the Luka didn't even play in the first loss and both the first two games were in November when the team was still trying to feature Porzingis--who was Dallas' leading scorer in both games). The 2020 playoffs are, of course playoffs, but it really just extends the progression you see in the most recent series--the longer Luka (or in more general terms a competent ball-handler of which the Mavs will have 3 this time around as opposed to 1+Bubble Burke in 2020), the less useful he gets.

[ItsGoTime]

There have been many points made throughout the discussion. In general, the point is we need a bigger body that can at least move enough to not be immediately replaced on the court. All the other tangents are breakoffs from this main point.

[Jason Terry]

Zubac's minutes in last year's series

Game 1:  19  Clippers Loss
Game 2:  22  Clippers Loss
Game 3:  11 - Clippers first win
Game 4:  18 - Luka's injury game, again Clippers Win
Game 5:  20 - Clippers Loss
Game 6:  5 - Clippers Win
Game 7:  3 - Clippers Win

Or in other words, if the Clippers played Zubac against a healthy Luka, we won. To win, they had to keep him off the floor

They had the humongous 6’8” Nic Batum at center

[ItsGoTime]

They had the humongous 6’8” Nic Batum at center

And we took them to 7 games.


With Zubac, it only took 6.

[Jommybone]

And we took them to 7 games.


With Zubac, it only took 6.

Why do you suppose the dude got 5 and 3 mins in the last 2 playoff games against the Mavs? Are you truly unable to see the point being made? It appears that Coach Lue saw it.

[ItsGoTime]

Why do you suppose the dude got 5 and 3 mins in the last 2 playoff games against the Mavs? Are you truly unable to see the point being made? It appears that Coach Lue saw it.

Because at the time he didn’t know what else to do. This year is proving to show, with a bit of time most can come up with a solution, hence Zubac playing more minutes than his regular season minutes this year head-to-head against the Mavs.

[SleepingHero]

Because at the time he didn’t know what else to do. This year is proving to show, with a bit of time most can come up with a solution, hence Zubac playing more minutes than his regular season minutes this year head-to-head against the Mavs.

Roster versatility matters in the NBA. It would only be a good thing to have an option to match bruising centers. Powell historically has been terrible against guys with size and length. 

Now I don't think we should go all out and try to get a center worth 20+mil unless he's an all-star type (think Ayton). But upgrading Powell's position and moving him to the bench would only help the team imo. Different looks increases the lethality of the offense, something the Mavs have had some issues with this season.

[ItsGoTime]

Roster versatility matters in the NBA. It would only be a good thing to have an option to match bruising centers. Powell historically has been terrible against guys with size and length. 

Now I don't think we should go all out and try to get a center worth 20+mil unless he's an all-star type (think Ayton). But upgrading Powell's position and moving him to the bench would only help the team imo. Different looks increases the lethality of the offense, something the Mavs have had some issues with this season.

This guy gets it

[mvossman]

Roster versatility matters in the NBA. It would only be a good thing to have an option to match bruising centers. Powell historically has been terrible against guys with size and length. 

Now I don't think we should go all out and try to get a center worth 20+mil unless he's an all-star type (think Ayton). But upgrading Powell's position and moving him to the bench would only help the team imo. Different looks increases the lethality of the offense, something the Mavs have had some issues with this season.

Totally agree.  I would argue a mobile defensive anchor at center who does not kill the offense would be the top priority.  Some guys I would be will to spend our meager assets on:

Clint Capela
Robert Williamson
Jakob Poeltl
Richaun Holmes