DAMN-WIDDIE: All Things Spencer | "Mr Game Seven" (30 pts, 11-15 FGs, +29)

[mvossman]

I mean, the "who" is THJ, even if it's a completely different skillset. I don't think he's enough to replace Brunson, but then again, he's just now starting to play well. In two weeks this all might look a lot better.

I would argue Wood is the closest thing to a Dinwiddie replacement from the standpoint of shot creation.  Nobody is really replacing his playmaking.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Silly comparison considering Brunson got better and better last season and Dinwiddie is most likely going to regress.

What makes it most likely?  These numbers outside of maybe the 3pt% all seem sustainable with his given role and even that seems somewhat sustainable to me because this is the first stop in his career where he's doing more catch and shoot 3 pointers than iso pull ups.

[mvossman]

What makes it most likely?  These numbers outside of maybe the 3pt% all seem sustainable with his given role and even that seems somewhat sustainable to me because this is the first stop in his career where he's doing more catch and shoot 3 pointers than iso pull ups.

He is shooting roughly 46% from 3.  Historically he has shot wide open 3s at less than 40% so there should be a limit to how much improved shot quality will improve his numbers.  I think he will be a better shooter in Dallas than he is for his career, but I would not expect him to shoot the 41% he shot last year, let alone the 46% he is shooting now.  

My point is that it does not make a lot of sense to compare a small sample of a young player who we knew got better as the season went on to a small sample of an older player starting off hot who does not have the growth/development potential of the younger player.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

He is shooting roughly 46% from 3.  Historically he has shot wide open 3s at less than 40% so there should be a limit to how much improved shot quality will improve his numbers.  I think he will be a better shooter in Dallas than he is for his career, but I would not expect him to shoot the 41% he shot last year, let alone the 46% he is shooting now.  

My point is that it does not make a lot of sense to compare a small sample of a young player who we knew got better as the season went on to a small sample of an older player starting off hot who does not have the growth/development potential of the younger player.

I agree with all that and I'm not expecting 46% either but I would not be surprised if he shoots above 40% here this year.

I would say there is something to be said about growth/development of someone new to a system and Dinwiddie has done nothing but improve since he's been here.  That growth obviously has a lower ceiling than someone younger like Brunson but I don't have any concern about Dinwiddie replacing Brunson's production.  I agree with the general sentiment that we need to be thinking about replacing Dinwiddie's role from last year which I think we both agree should be falling more on Wood and less on Hardaway.  I think the sooner Kidd figures that out the sooner we can get out of all this ISO ball.

[F Gump]

He is shooting roughly 46% from 3.  Historically he has shot wide open 3s at less than 40% so there should be a limit to how much improved shot quality will improve his numbers.  I think he will be a better shooter in Dallas than he is for his career, but I would not expect him to shoot the 41% he shot last year, let alone the 46% he is shooting now.  

My point is that it does not make a lot of sense to compare a small sample of a young player who we knew got better as the season went on to a small sample of an older player starting off hot who does not have the growth/development potential of the younger player.

Any certainty that this MUST just be small sample size skewing things, and a future slump is inevitable to revert him to the mean, is very misguided. No way to know that until it's over.

It has to be recognized that players CAN improve their shooting. Not just young players. It's sometimes just a function of the willingness to work. or discovering some issue that needs correcting (and doing the work to make it happen). It remains to be seen if that's what is happening, but it is VERY possible.

[mvossman]

Any certainty that this MUST just be small sample size skewing things, and a future slump is inevitable to revert him to the mean, is very misguided. No way to know that until it's over.

It has to be recognized that players CAN improve their shooting. Not just young players. It's sometimes just a function of the willingness to work. or discovering some issue that needs correcting (and doing the work to make it happen). It remains to be seen if that's what is happening, but it is VERY possible.

Sure there is the possibility for improvement.  But lets not kid ourselves.  This is a career 33% shooter that shot 34% last season and 31% the year before that (skipping his 3 game season).  What is the history of roughly 30 year old NBA players going from a below average 3 point shooter to one of the best in the league?  His improved shot selection might give him a couple of percent, and he might have improved in skill a couple of percent (although there is virtually no history of improvement once he started playing regularly) and maybe some noise/luck will get him another couple of percent, but the odds of him shooting 46% for the rest of the season at this volume are astronomically low.

[F Gump]

Sure there is the possibility for improvement.  But lets not kid ourselves.  This is a career 33% shooter that shot 34% last season and 31% the year before that (skipping his 3 game season).  What is the history of roughly 30 year old NBA players going from a below average 3 point shooter to one of the best in the league?  His improved shot selection might give him a couple of percent, and he might have improved in skill a couple of percent (although there is virtually no history of improvement once he started playing regularly) and maybe some noise/luck will get him another couple of percent, but the odds of him shooting 46% for the rest of the season at this volume are astronomically low.

Don't kid yourself - that negativity is factually wrong. For a parallel in MANY ways, see Kidd, Jason. Kidd was traded to Dallas at age 34, and his 3P% which had been low 30s most of his career moved to over 40% and stayed there that season and 2 more (46, 41, 43).

I don't argue with your idea that SD's improvement MIGHT only be temporary, based on sss -- but because of the very real changes in circumstance on multiple levels, your view may have failed to capture what's become real. We just have to see what happens.

And your idea that a player CAN'T figure it out, and is somehow doomed to the limits of what he has done in the past, is simply not right. There's nothing in SD's game that says he can't learn or improve a skill, and shooting is certainly a developed skill rather than an intuited (and limited) piece of athleticism.

[KillerLeft]

I would argue Wood is the closest thing to a Dinwiddie replacement from the standpoint of shot creation.  Nobody is really replacing his playmaking.

Well, I interpreted the conversation to be about guard minutes. 

Although I'd be curious to see who has gotten more shots off this season between Wood and THJ.

[Kammrath]

Although I'd be curious to see who has gotten more shots off this season between Wood and THJ.

THJ: 115
Wood: 101

[KillerLeft]

THJ: 115
Wood: 101

Thanks!

[mvossman]

Don't kid yourself - that negativity is factually wrong. For a parallel in MANY ways, see Kidd, Jason. Kidd was traded to Dallas at age 34, and his 3P% which had been low 30s most of his career moved to over 40% and stayed there that season and 2 more (46, 41, 43).

I don't argue with your idea that SD's improvement MIGHT only be temporary, based on sss -- but because of the very real changes in circumstance on multiple levels, your view may have failed to capture what's become real. We just have to see what happens.

And your idea that a player CAN'T figure it out, and is somehow doomed to the limits of what he has done in the past, is simply not right. There's nothing in SD's game that says he can't learn or improve a skill, and shooting is certainly a developed skill rather than an intuited (and limited) piece of athleticism.

Nobody said he can't improve.  The point is the odds that he has improved his 3 by over 10% is exceeding unlikely.  Even if it has happened before (I will get to that) it does not make it likely.  It's wildly more likely that we are experiencing the same noise that has Luka, Bullock and Maxi shooting under 30%.

As for Kidd, he was shooting roughly 35 to 36% for a couple years before he went to Dallas.  That 46 your quoting was a 29 game sample on less than 3 attempts a game.  Small sample.  He did raise his percentage to low 40s for the next two seasons before he dropped back down to mid 30s.  That's maybe a 6% jump, huge for a player at his age, but nowhere near the 13% jump Din would have to be taking to suddenly become a 46% shooter.

I'm surprised we are having this argument.  There is always a bunch of noise in small sample three point shooting and it always eventually regresses (even if the new value shifts some due to changes in skill or shot profile).

[mvossman]

THJ: 115
Wood: 101

Timmy is a chucker, but Wood's unassisted rate is double Timmy's (still not near Din's rate).  He is the closest thing to a third creator.

[F Gump]

As for Kidd, he was shooting roughly 35 to 36% for a couple years before he went to Dallas.  That 46 your quoting was a 29 game sample on less than 3 attempts a game.  Small sample.  He did raise his percentage to low 40s for the next two seasons before he dropped back down to mid 30s.  That's maybe a 6% jump, huge for a player at his age, but nowhere near the 13% jump Din would have to be taking to suddenly become a 46% shooter.

Your insistent doom-and-gloom on this is not well founded at all.

SD shot almost 41 on 3s in Dallas last season. The way he was used, and the shots he was getting (combined with the shots he didn't have to force) compared to team situations for him previously changed the context for him. The workload changed also, and the players around him. Getting better looks, and in better situations, makes a difference.

I suspect he worked on skills this summer to complement the new paradigm. Why wouldn't he? And why wouldn't that work pay off?

This season, his percentages so far are UP, not down. I think it far more likely that SD is who the numbers are saying he is, than the idea he is eternally confined to the mediocre results that resulted from other team contexts. And by the way, whether or not he stays at 46% is not a defining line - the issue is really whether he can be a legit 3 point threat here, or someone whose 3 pt shot can be ignored as was the case on prior teams.

[mvossman]

Your insistent doom-and-gloom on this is not well founded at all.

SD shot almost 41 on 3s in Dallas last season. The way he was used, and the shots he was getting (combined with the shots he didn't have to force) compared to team situations for him previously changed the context for him. The workload changed also, and the players around him. Getting better looks, and in better situations, makes a difference.

I suspect he worked on skills this summer to complement the new paradigm. Why wouldn't he? And why wouldn't that work pay off?

This season, his percentages so far are UP, not down. I think it far more likely that SD is who the numbers are saying he is, than the idea he is eternally confined to the mediocre results that resulted from other team contexts. And by the way, whether or not he stays at 46% is not a defining line - the issue is really whether he can be a legit 3 point threat here, or someone whose 3 pt shot can be ignored as was the case on prior teams.

Its really strange that you think a simple statement that a small sample is likely to regress is "doom and gloom".  I don't think Green is going to shoot 50% for the year either.  Is that doom and gloom?  I think Maxi, Bullock and Luka will be over 30% by the end of the season.  Is that sunshine pumping?

As far as this silly argument is concerned, the issue is whether he will continue to shoot 46%.  That is because what triggered it was the simple statement I made that Dinwiddie will likely regress.  That's not doom and gloom, its math.

Nobody said Dinwiddie could not improve, nobody said his shot profile would not be better in Dallas and nobody said he won't be a 3 point threat.  That is moving the goalposts.  I simply suggested he will very likely not be shooting 46% all year.  That number would have been the best in the league last season.

[Chicagojk]

His final #'s have been good the last two games, but I am not crazy how he has been playing.  Am I alone?   The ball tends to stick quite a bit when he is in there with subs.    I am also not crazy about his high # of three point attempts.  He is making them though.   I just want him to get easier baskets and get to the line more.   Hopefully that is coming.

Someone mentioned in the game chat that him and Wood don't have don't chemistry on the pick and role.   If they continue to play together, hopefully that changes.   That should be the staple when Luka is sitting.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/16...4941021185

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/MavsPR/status/1602525795595046914