Incoming powder keg?

[Fuerza1]

The Dallas Mavericks have the 4th EASIEST schedule in the league thus far yet boast a 6-5 record. It could be a lot worse, sure. But shouldn't it be a little better with a top 5 NBA player, all-star caliber talent, and a "top 2 head coach?" 

Contrast that with the Phoenix Suns who hold the 4th HARDEST schedule yet are 7-4 without DeAndre Ayton. 

After 11 games, we still haven't figured it out but seems like some are okay with that? Now we are facing more legit playoff caliber teams in the upcoming weeks and have no idea who we are. Why exactly should we be encouraged?

The trial and error approach is what training camp and preseason is for but the Mavs believe they have the luxury to lollygag through 11 games (and counting) in an unforgiving Western Conference.

We rank 2nd in offensive rating but are a bottom 10 defensive rated team. Remember, that is with the 4th EASIEST schedule in the league; it's only going to get harder. 

Last year's locker room had issues they couldn't overcome. If/when the losses start to pile up, is this a team built for adversity? Brad Townsend's tweet from last night: https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1195190622048657408

The wheels are in motion but in what direction? Is this our come to Dirk moment or is it a powder keg ready to explode?

[ClutchDirk]

11 games only...

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6MbbfNYA.../giphy.gif

[StepBackJay]

I put "other" because I think Mavs will continue their skid for a while and drop out of the playoff race for a while. Mavs have some stiffer competition for some time. Rick always figures out the rotations eventually and the Mavs start looking more in sync but it's hard to say how long that will take and how many losses we will have in the mean-time.

---

The Dallas Mavericks have the 4th EASIEST schedule in the league thus far yet boast a 6-5 record. It could be a lot worse, sure. But shouldn't it be a little better with a top 5 NBA player, all-star caliber talent, and a "top 2 head coach?" 

Contrast that with the Phoenix Suns who hold the 4th HARDEST schedule yet are 7-4 without DeAndre Ayton. 

After 11 games, we still haven't figured it out but seems like some are okay with that? Now we are facing more legit playoff caliber teams in the upcoming weeks and have no idea who we are. Why exactly should we be encouraged?

The trial and error approach is what training camp and preseason is for but the Mavs believe they have the luxury to lollygag through 11 games (and counting) in an unforgiving Western Conference.

We rank 2nd in offensive rating but are a bottom 10 defensive rated team. Remember, that is with the 4th EASIEST schedule in the league; it's only going to get harder. 

Last year's locker room had issues they couldn't overcome. If/when the losses start to pile up, is this a team built for adversity? Brad Townsend's tweet from last night: https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1195190622048657408

The wheels are in motion but in what direction? Is this our come to Dirk moment or is it a powder keg ready to explode?

I haven't watched a lot of Suns games but it seems like Rubio was the catalyst there. They finally have a competent, real PG at the helm and then it makes their team make sense.

Mavs need some kind of catalyst, most likely a trade or a rotation fix or maybe KP getting his S together. I just don't see that happening for a while. I see it continuing to be up and down for a while.

[omahen]

I haven't watched a lot of Suns games but it seems like Rubio was the catalyst there. They finally have a competent, real PG at the helm and then it makes their team make sense.

While Ricky is great, I would put Baines on the throne. He is a monster down low on both ends. He brought grit and grind which was what they needed. I think they will be worse when Ayton takes his minutes.

---

While of course I don't really think we need to blow it up, this team certainly needs more quality players. We don't have cap space in 2020 so hoping that a middle first round pick will be someone capable of putting 20 points per night is a bit optimistic. This means the only chance to improve this team before 2021 FA pipedream is a trade.

Mavs offense (looking at starting five) is like this: 
- ball ends up in Lukas hands who plays one on one with either shooting a three, going to the basket or going to the basket and pass. Or 
- ball ends up in Lukas hands, who receives a screen so that a little worse defender switches on him and than plays one on one with either shooting a three, going to the basket or going to the basket and pass.
- sometimes, before ball gets in Luka's hands, they pass it around a little but no one really wants to do anything with it, so it eventually ends up in Luka hands
- very rarely they play KP post up, which is 90 % inefficient.

Opponent defensive game plan is extremely simple atm:
- put your best athletic defender on Luka to try and bother him a little before he gets the ball. Luka will receive a series of screens anyway so another guy will have to eventually guard him
- put two guys on KP and Seth and they should not move from them to prevent spot up shots. Our guys don't do much more, so they don't really need to be anything special defensively. They also don't move a lot without the ball, so staying close is not really that difficult
- the remaining two guys not guarding Luka, KP and Seth should remain close to basket, as none of the other 2 Mavs guys is a real threat from three. They need a lot of space to shoot it, so they might be even quick enough to close and put some pressure on the shot or prevent it. If they decide to dribble, it's over 50 % chance of a lost ball
- by remaining close to basket, they are able to effectively take away alley oops after Luka PnR

If Mavs put someone else instead of DFS, the shooting threat remains approximately the same and defense is worse. If they put someone else instead of Seth, shooting is way worse and opponent can close the paint even more. Mavs have no one better to put in instead of KP or Maxi. If they go small, they have problems defensively and nothing improves on the offensive end. 

So, if they want to play this kind of offense, they desperately need someone, who can play DFS level of defense, shoot the three in the 40 % range and is capable of creating his own shot if defense closes by to that three point shot from Luka pass. Than this team might actually look good, as Luka and the rolling guy will have much more space or defenders from KP and Seth would need to help leaving those guys more open. 

The alternative is, they change the offense and move the ball way more than they do now, move without the ball much more etc.

At this point, there are of course not a lot of players of described qualities available. They were in the summer, but we blew it... Anyway, I am more and more intrigued by CP3 as we would get a legitimate 3-D starter and keep all our bench depth. Gallinari would be great, but I don't think we have the assets. Alternative is to try and get assets for taking bad contracts into remaining TE and for Lee and do something in the summer of 2020. I don't think there are any middle options, as we don't have assets for legit starters.

[StepBackJay]

I think you put a real center in there and the whole thing starts making more sense. I like small-ball for stretches but this small-ball for like 35-48 mpg is not working (ie Boban is the only guy that's an actual center on this team). We thought small-ball was going to be awesome and it isn't. I do wonder what it would look like with Favors next to KP which is an intriguing small-ball lineup but I digress.

A real rim-running, defending, rebounding center will make this thing look better. Also moving Brunson into the starting lineup balances out the playmaking so that it's not all Doncic for the quarter+. Do those 2 things and you will have an offense that makes sense.

---

It is crazy that the Mavs are #2 in offensive rating despite their offense not really looking that great outside of Luka.

[ballsrchr]

I voted other simply because the option I would vote for is not there.  Polls do no good if they are slanted to fulfill some hidden agenda. Well thought out poll options might reveal something worthwhile.  But...hey...relax, we've got THJ...

[MrGoat]

Other. Tweaks need to be made but ultimately I think it will be more than minor tweaks needed. It won't be a blow up because we should keep the Luka KP core but I would not be surprised at all to see us maybe take on CP3's contract during trade season if it becomes clear that more than a minor tweak is needed. We'll get to that bridge when we come to it though, it's still a while until trade season opens. For now we just keep making evaluations

[mavsluvr]

Other. Tweaks need to be made but ultimately I think it will be more than minor tweaks needed. It won't be a blow up because we should keep the Luka KP core but I would not be surprised at all to see us maybe take on CP3's contract during trade season if it becomes clear that more than a minor tweak is needed. We'll get to that bridge when we come to it though, it's still a while until trade season opens. For now we just keep making evaluations

I keep seeing this idea floated here and there, and would like to understand it better. 

It is hard for me to imagine that the Mavs would have any part of CP3 at this point, because --

1.  His contract is truly a monstrosity. He gets around $40M/season, and has two seasons beyond this one left on his contract. 

     a.  Trying to salary match a contract like that is daunting. I don't know what the Mavs would have to offer to even come close. The only reason OKC could do it is because Russ also had a mega contract.

      b.  Paul is a declining player, and that contract, even were it match-able, would prohibit the organization from otherwise improving the team just in the seasons when they most need to get better. 

2.  Paul is not in sync with the time frame of the organization. He is 34 years old and on the down side of the hill, while the other two stars are in their early twenties and on the rise. 

3.  Paul doesn't play a position of need for the Mavs. Luka is the point guard. Luka can also play off the ball, but we have no indication that he is ready or willing to give up his position as floor general. Paul would improve the bench, for sure, but it doesn't make sense to pay $40M/season for a backup PG. 

4.  Paul is undersized, even for his position. That has contributed, imo, to some of his difficulties at the highest level. He has been on numerous very stacked teams, talent-wise, but has nevertheless never even been to the Finals. And some of that is clearly attributable to his struggles against bigger players deep in the playoffs. 

5.  Paul is not the superstar he used to be. Quite the opposite. When the Rox signed him for four years last season, I am sure they expected to get less than their money's worth toward the end of the term, but I think it surprised even them that his decline was so swift. OKC is in the cellar of the conference this season. Paul can still shoot, but he is no longer a high-quality defender. 


These are the things that occur to me when I hear these CP3 rumors. However, I hear them enough to think they must make sense to someone. What am I failing to see?

[MrGoat]

Other. Tweaks need to be made but ultimately I think it will be more than minor tweaks needed. It won't be a blow up because we should keep the Luka KP core but I would not be surprised at all to see us maybe take on CP3's contract during trade season if it becomes clear that more than a minor tweak is needed. We'll get to that bridge when we come to it though, it's still a while until trade season opens. For now we just keep making evaluations

I keep seeing this idea floated here and there, and would like to understand it better. 

It is hard for me to imagine that the Mavs would have any part of CP3 at this point, because --

1.  His contract is truly a monstrosity. He gets around $40M/season, and has two seasons beyond this one left on his contract. 

     a.  Trying to salary match a contract like that is daunting. I don't know what the Mavs would have to offer to even come close. The only reason OKC could do it is because Russ also had a mega contract.

      b.  Paul is a declining player, and that contract, even were it match-able, would prohibit the organization from otherwise improving the team just in the seasons when they most need to get better. 

2.  Paul is not in sync with the time frame of the organization. He is 34 years old and on the down side of the hill, while the other two stars are in their early twenties and on the rise. 

3.  Paul doesn't play a position of need for the Mavs. Luka is the point guard. Luka can also play off the ball, but we have no indication that he is ready or willing to give up his position as floor general. Paul would improve the bench, for sure, but it doesn't make sense to pay $40M/season for a backup PG. 

4.  Paul is undersized, even for his position. That has contributed, imo, to some of his difficulties at the highest level. He has been on numerous very stacked teams, talent-wise, but has nevertheless never even been to the Finals. And some of that is clearly attributable to his struggles against bigger players deep in the playoffs. 

5.  Paul is not the superstar he used to be. Quite the opposite. When the Rox signed him for four years last season, I am sure they expected to get less than their money's worth toward the end of the term, but I think it surprised even them that his decline was so swift. OKC is in the cellar of the conference this season. Paul can still shoot, but he is no longer a high-quality defender. 


These are the things that occur to me when I hear these CP3 rumors. However, I hear them enough to think they must make sense to someone. What am I failing to see?

It's premature now and does depend on what happens between now and trade season, but it is a contingency that should be on our list. But if it becomes tempting here would be my reactions to those concerns

1. The contract? Who cares. We are demonstrably terrible at improving the team in free agency anyway except for bargain bin deals and trades, keeping cap space for 2021 is a fool's errand. 

a. THJ and Lee would be the offer, OKC gets knocked out of luxury tax territory and we don't lose anything important and yes it's legal. If Presti wants more it's moot and good luck dumping that contract

b. What makes you think the MBT could improve the team with space after these last few offseasons? They've lost that benefit of the doubt. The 2011 team except for Dirk was built from trades

2. Yeah, they said that about Jason Kidd too. Luka is only guaranteed to be here two more years after this one, being too passive about immediate improvement is risky

3. CP3 is one of the only players I can think of who is proven successful next to a player as ball dominant as Luka, and his age makes it so he doesn't want to run the whole show anymore so it fits. He averaged 15 and 8 next to Harden's career year last season and he'd likely have a ring if he didn't get injured in game 5 the year before. We'd be similar to that Houston team but with KP instead of Capela. And yeah, he wouldn't be a backup on this roster

4. Size isn't exactly our biggest concern right now. I would say that he was an injury away from helping to conquer the Warriors at full strength. There aren't even the Warriors at full strength standing in anybody's way this season

5. 15-8 average next to Harden and even last season it was working against the Warriors again when the series was at 2-2. Until KD got hurt which kind of ruined the Rockets' defensive plans which relied on baiting KD into bad chucks and ruining the teams' rhythm. 

We botched our best chance over the next few years to seriously improve the team this offseason if what we have now isn't sufficient, and thanks to some trades we're low on picks again. We're not loaded with avenues for improving the team over the next couple of seasons and I don't trust powder. The thought is this trade would at least be taking a serious swing at bringing in some more serious talent for now without really losing anything. FWIW CP3 is the only player I have ever heard publicly express any interest in playing for Rick, and that had to do with what he saw with Jason Kidd here. Last 34 year old talented asshole point guard we traded for worked out pretty well. Of course this is assuming it still looks like a possibility come trade season so right now it's just wait and see and keep this as one of many ideas to keep on the back burner

[mavsluvr]

Other. Tweaks need to be made but ultimately I think it will be more than minor tweaks needed. It won't be a blow up because we should keep the Luka KP core but I would not be surprised at all to see us maybe take on CP3's contract during trade season if it becomes clear that more than a minor tweak is needed. We'll get to that bridge when we come to it though, it's still a while until trade season opens. For now we just keep making evaluations

I keep seeing this idea floated here and there, and would like to understand it better. 

It is hard for me to imagine that the Mavs would have any part of CP3 at this point, because --

1.  His contract is truly a monstrosity. He gets around $40M/season, and has two seasons beyond this one left on his contract. 

     a.  Trying to salary match a contract like that is daunting. I don't know what the Mavs would have to offer to even come close. The only reason OKC could do it is because Russ also had a mega contract.

      b.  Paul is a declining player, and that contract, even were it match-able, would prohibit the organization from otherwise improving the team just in the seasons when they most need to get better. 

2.  Paul is not in sync with the time frame of the organization. He is 34 years old and on the down side of the hill, while the other two stars are in their early twenties and on the rise. 

3.  Paul doesn't play a position of need for the Mavs. Luka is the point guard. Luka can also play off the ball, but we have no indication that he is ready or willing to give up his position as floor general. Paul would improve the bench, for sure, but it doesn't make sense to pay $40M/season for a backup PG. 

4.  Paul is undersized, even for his position. That has contributed, imo, to some of his difficulties at the highest level. He has been on numerous very stacked teams, talent-wise, but has nevertheless never even been to the Finals. And some of that is clearly attributable to his struggles against bigger players deep in the playoffs. 

5.  Paul is not the superstar he used to be. Quite the opposite. When the Rox signed him for four years last season, I am sure they expected to get less than their money's worth toward the end of the term, but I think it surprised even them that his decline was so swift. OKC is in the cellar of the conference this season. Paul can still shoot, but he is no longer a high-quality defender. 


These are the things that occur to me when I hear these CP3 rumors. However, I hear them enough to think they must make sense to someone. What am I failing to see?

It's premature now and does depend on what happens between now and trade season, but it is a contingency that should be on our list. But if it becomes tempting here would be my reactions to those concerns

1. The contract? Who cares. We are demonstrably terrible at improving the team in free agency anyway except for bargain bin deals and trades, keeping cap space for 2021 is a fool's errand. 

a. THJ and Lee would be the offer, OKC gets knocked out of luxury tax territory and we don't lose anything important and yes it's legal. If Presti wants more it's moot and good luck dumping that contract

b. What makes you think the MBT could improve the team with space after these last few offseasons? They've lost that benefit of the doubt. The 2011 team except for Dirk was built from trades

2. Yeah, they said that about Jason Kidd too. Luka is only guaranteed to be here two more years after this one, being too passive about immediate improvement is risky

3. CP3 is one of the only players I can think of who is proven successful next to a player as ball dominant as Luka, and his age makes it so he doesn't want to run the whole show anymore so it fits. He averaged 15 and 8 next to Harden's career year last season and he'd likely have a ring if he didn't get injured in game 5 the year before. We'd be similar to that Houston team but with KP instead of Capela. And yeah, he wouldn't be a backup on this roster

4. Size isn't exactly our biggest concern right now. I would say that he was an injury away from helping to conquer the Warriors at full strength. There aren't even the Warriors at full strength standing in anybody's way this season

5. 15-8 average next to Harden and even last season it was working against the Warriors again when the series was at 2-2. Until KD got hurt which kind of ruined the Rockets' defensive plans which relied on baiting KD into bad chucks and ruining the teams' rhythm. 

We botched our best chance over the next few years to seriously improve the team this offseason if what we have now isn't sufficient, and thanks to some trades we're low on picks again. We're not loaded with avenues for improving the team over the next couple of seasons and I don't trust powder. The thought is this trade would at least be taking a serious swing at bringing in some more serious talent for now without really losing anything. FWIW CP3 is the only player I have ever heard publicly express any interest in playing for Rick, and that had to do with what he saw with Jason Kidd here. Last 34 year old talented asshole point guard we traded for worked out pretty well. Of course this is assuming it still looks like a possibility come trade season so right now it's just wait and see and keep this as one of many ideas to keep on the back burner

Thanks for this detailed reply, Mr. Goat. Interesting thoughts. 

You appear to be making an argument on a fan-to-fan basis, which is what we are, of course. My question is not so much whether a twinkle-in-our-eye case can be made for the trade as what would tempt the actual Mavs/OKC front offices to see it as beneficial. As fans, we don't have to care how much a player costs versus his value, we can say we might as well go all in on a fading, oft-injured star because the front office is incompetent to make use of alternative opportunities anyway, etc. The owners will not be thinking that way. 

Afaik, the source for this Paul-to-the-Mavs idea seems to be an article suggesting that this might be an great trade, where a guy was just noodling around, rather than reporting anything. Do you know of something suggesting that either front office is actually interested in this in real life? 

I don't doubt that OKC would be open to trading Paul. I think that was the idea when they got him. But so far, they have reportedly resisted throwing in much at all in the way of sweeteners to compensate for taking on Paul's contract, even though they received a bunch of draft picks and swaps for doing so themselves. If they do decide to pull the trigger, I can't see that they would want Lee and Hardaway, who both have bloated contracts as well. But who knows?

I would be surprised if either team's ownership/management group finds a Paul/Lee-Hardaway trade by itself as attractive. If you have reports otherwise, I of course am always open to being convinced by facts. You say Paul wants to come here? I readily admit, I have been surprised before. 

All this aside, it is interesting as a fan to come up with ideas to add talent, and I am not intending to throw cold water on any creative thoughts in that direction. And as you say, this is one of many propositions on the burner. A lot of proposals that might look like long shots today can evolve into realistic possibilities once the time comes for pulling the trigger.

I guess we'll see what happens! 

Appreciate the response!

[ballsrchr]

This fan does not want CP3.

[mavsluvr]

This fan does not want CP3.

LOL

That is a succinct way of putting it!

[MrGoat]

Thanks for this detailed reply, Mr. Goat. Interesting thoughts. 

You appear to be making an argument on a fan-to-fan basis, which is what we are, of course. My question is not so much whether a twinkle-in-our-eye case can be made for the trade as what would tempt the actual Mavs/OKC front offices to see it as beneficial. As fans, we don't have to care how much a player costs versus his value, we can say we might as well go all in on a fading, oft-injured star because the front office is incompetent to make use of alternative opportunities anyway, etc. The owners will not be thinking that way. 

Afaik, the source for this Paul-to-the-Mavs idea seems to be an article suggesting that this might be an great trade, where a guy was just noodling around, rather than reporting anything. Do you know of something suggesting that either front office is actually interested in this in real life? 

I don't doubt that OKC would be open to trading Paul. I think that was the idea when they got him. But so far, they have reportedly resisted throwing in much at all in the way of sweeteners to compensate for taking on Paul's contract, even though they received a bunch of draft picks and swaps for doing so themselves. If they do decide to pull the trigger, I can't see that they would want Lee and Hardaway, who both have bloated contracts as well. But who knows?

I would be surprised if either team's ownership/management group finds a Paul/Lee-Hardaway trade by itself as attractive. If you have reports otherwise, I of course am always open to being convinced by facts. You say Paul wants to come here? I readily admit, I have been surprised before. 

All this aside, it is interesting as a fan to come up with ideas to add talent, and I am not intending to throw cold water on any creative thoughts in that direction. And as you say, this is one of many propositions on the burner. A lot of proposals that might look like long shots today can evolve into realistic possibilities once the time comes for pulling the trigger.

I guess we'll see what happens! 

Appreciate the response!

Oh I'm sure the owners aren't thinking that way right now, especially on Dallas' side who I fear may already may have started producing a cartoon for Giannis knowing their history. But I do think that could change by January or February depending on where these teams are. The scenario would be that once our schedule toughens up we falter a bit to the point where Luka is frustrated but we are still good enough that we're not out of the playoff race yet and adding a boost before the deadline looks tantalizing. For OKC they would have to be mediocre but not terrible and have failed to find any takers for that CP3 contract to that point (and they'd be looking for one). A CP3 buyout would be awfully expensive, taking on Lee and Hardaway would save them 6M this season, 23M next season, and 44M the season after that, or more than that if Gallo gets hurt before he's tradable and OKC staring at a luxury tax bill. I think the much tougher part of the sell would be convincing Dallas to punt on 2021 (or at least have a very large expiring to find a way to dump if they do somehow convince Giannis to come)

CP3 didn't say he wanted to come to Dallas, he said he found the idea of having the keys to Rick Carlisle's offense ala Jason Kidd intriguing, but that was years ago and he's already passed up two chances to come here in free agency since saying it so I'm not sure if it means anything at this point.