Harrison Press Conference 2-10

[Kammrath]

Last year is guaranteed 10 million. That is not small amount

Last year is guaranteed 5 mil. Better than SD, but still 5 mil lost, if Mavs or someone else dumps him.

Those are small amounts compared to the $36,016,200 fully guaranteed money of KP. 

$15M "lost" is way better than $36M "lost."

[omahen]

KP is owed 70 mil after this season. New guys have 66 mil guaranteed. Basically same.

[haveitall]

I 100% get the people being anxious about Dinwiddie and Bertans when they look at their numbers/play THIS year. But when you look at their body of work? Two solid players that really do fit NEEDS on this team. 

What I struggle most with understanding is the thinking that KP is a big loss in any way. We have so much data now, even with TWO coaches and it just seems quite apparent to me that he is an average NBA player. Yes, he has flashes of above average, but when you take everything into account....average feels like the clear evaluation. And on that contract and with that health risk? Ugh.

19ppg and 8 rpb in 30mpg while being a premier defender is not average.  KP isn't Dirk, but he is almost an all star.  If he played 35 mpg and was healthy no doubt he would be an all star.  Yes health was an issue, but the players you are getting back have the same health issue and they are not in the same stratosphere.  People on this board were debating trading him for Ben Simmons a few months back.  My hope was that he would miss a lot of regular season games and then turn it up in the playoffs.

---

Where is that fire Nico thread

[Kammrath]

KP is owed 70 mil after this season. New guys have 66 mil guaranteed. Basically same.

For sure. I just think the unguaranteed nature, the size, and being two contracts are all also better from a financial standpoint. 

I think the Mavs come out ahead in flexibility as Nico was saying:

1) Financial (less money and more movable contracts)

2) Roster (easier to build a team around Luka without worrying about KP's specific needs/weaknesses)

3) Scheme (easier to play when you don't have someone demanding touches in the post)

All wins in "flexibility."

[Kammrath]

19ppg and 8 rpb in 30mpg while being a premier defender is not average.  KP isn't Dirk, but he is almost an all star. 

"Premier defender"? KP has been a GOOD defender at times in his career....AND a terrible defender (and weak link). I also don't think he is close to "all star" level. 

We'll see. What happens in WAS should be the final nail in the coffin of all the KP debates.

[Winter]

19ppg and 8 rpb in 30mpg while being a premier defender is not average.

KP was not a "premier" defender. He was inconsistent and unreliable. He could protect the rim sometimes and we still need that, but he frequently got beat to the basket by quicker players.

This team will not suffer with him out of the line-up. We still need help, but this team wasn't going to advance even with the current version of KP.

[Chicagojk]

This may be unfair and not a knock on anyone else on this forum.  But I am over giving this front office the benefit of the doubt.  I will not try to read between the lines or build a grand strategy off their words.   They need to prove it.  Until they do, I will remain dubious.

That is just me though...and again not a knock on anyone else.

[MrGoat]

When asked about the buyout market, he said “We’re set. Roster spots are at a premium, so we’re set.” He didn’t qualify this in any way, so my take away is that they are no longer interested in Dragic. This is the team for the rest of the season.

Translation. Goran saw this trade and was no longer interested in coming here. I'm no longer giving the new front office the benefit of the doubt, they'll have to do something to earn my trust back after this

[DanSchwartzgan]

Not that it necessarily means anything to anyone…

Bertans wears Nike’s.

SD started wearing Nike’s, but has since created his own shoe company.

[KillerLeft]

but has since created his own shoe company.

And this, in a nutshell, is why I never wanted Dinwiddie here. 

I know this will endear him to some, and those people might be right, with me being a jerk, but I'm just from a school of thought that needs my professional basketball players to love basketball to an almost unhealthy point, a point where they don't have room for things like this in their life. 

It's not a particularly modern way of thinking, I know. But I feel like pro sports is such a short time in their lives, that there will be time (and money and networking, if they're successful enough) for endeavors like this later. Maybe this shouldn't bother me, but it does. 

Does anyone remember Corbin Bernson's character from the movie Major League?

[MrGoat]

And this, in a nutshell, is why I never wanted Dinwiddie here. 

I know this will endear him to some, and those people might be right, with me being a jerk, but I'm just from a school of thought that needs my professional basketball players to love basketball to an almost unhealthy point, a point where they don't have room for things like this in their life. 

It's not a particularly modern way of thinking, I know. But I feel like pro sports is such a short time in their lives, that there will be time (and money and networking, if they're successful enough) for endeavors like this later. Maybe this shouldn't bother me, but it does. 

Does anyone remember Corbin Bernson's character from the movie Major League?

What bothers me more about Dinwiddie is I'm hearing things that make it sound like he's a bit of a malcontent wherever he is. Not hearing great things about Bertans in the locker room either, makes you wonder if Luka really wanted KP gone. In theory at least he does give us that additional secondary playmaker that we've been looking for, if he could return to his 2020 form this would look a lot better though he's looked like a complete shell of his former self since his big injury. Probably want to stagger his minutes away from Luka's because he's a lousy shooter but he should be a real playmaking option when Luka isn't on the floor, or they could try having Luka play a little bit off ball which he was able to do at Eurobasket. He's got good size for his position but I only hear bad things about his defense when talking with fans who have seen him play more, but his advanced stats aren't terrible on that end, I'd have to see more of him in action to formulate more of an opinion on his defense. Bertans will be a test of just how well Kidd's defensive system can hide a player with serious defensive deficiencies

[Winter]

No one I've seen is "pro-Dinwiddie". This is not a trade to get Dinwiddie. This was a trade to get rid of unreliable player with a bad contract. 

And then we will likely shuffle the deck again in free agency. Dinwiddie and Bertans are merely serviceable in the rotation. Nothing more. They are place-holders. 

It's what teams do. It's maddening. But keeping KP was like keeping a broken toy.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The thing we forgot about unicorns is that they're a myth

KP turned out to be a myth. Giannis, not so much...

[soog]

DB is a shooter, it is THE reason he exists. His career is 40.0% from three....he is down to 31.9% this year. His "whole body" is 40% from three. That is REALLY valuable.

SD is a creator. His PER the three previous seasons were 17.8, 16.3, 15.9...now he is down to 13.6 and his true shooting percent his way down from career as well. 

Point is both are clearly under-performing their career averages, almost across the board. And most importantly their on-court impacts are down as well.



The contracts do NOT last longer. SD's contract is the same length as KP...BUT the last year is unguaranteed whereas KP's was fully guaranteed. So SD's contract is shorter. And DB's contract is one year longer than KP....BUT the last year is unguaranteed, so functionally it is the same length as KP's. 

Their contracts are a HUGE improvement on KP's from a trade asset standpoint.

Re: Dinwiddie - looking at the PER from his best years isn’t the whole body of work.  But even then lets run with the PER you refer to.  His PER was higher in those three seasons. In the latter two of those seasons, his shooting percentage was uncharacteristically high from the field.  His Usage was also through the roof which for a per40 metric makes him look significantly better.  This year he is shooting the ball about as well has he has in his career and has a fairly average usage rate for his career, excluding the first couple of years.  As a result, his PER is…. meh…. So for him to suddenly show a significant improvement in PER he either needs to resume an uncharacteristically high shooting percentage for what he has demonstrated he can do and his usage needs to go back to what it was when he was the best player on a bad team.  Even then, I would argue that it doesn’t really matter what his PER is if he is still the same inefficient player he has proven to be throughout his career.  And let’s not forget that he is coming back from ACL surgery.  Since we have worked with Wes Matthews, Chandler Parsons, and KP - what are your thoughts about the chances that he fully returns to what he once was…?

Re: Bertans - yes, he is a career 40% shooter from deep.  But the guy is one dimensional and wont be able to stay on the floor because it will be hard to hide him as the team is currently constructed.  Let’s say he resumes his 40% shooting with his current usage stats from this year.  He’s going to up his ppg by about 0.8 ppg, but all other aspects of his game will continue to be atrocious

Re: Contract length - You are partially correct.  I looked into this a bit more. It’s not that they are “unguaranteed”, they are only partially guaranteed… sort of…. To start with Dinwiddie only $10M of his last year is guaranteed… unless he plays in 50 games this year and next.  Then it becomes fully guaranteed.  On top of this he has up to almost $8m in bonuses he gets pay just for playing 50 games or more, 50% of playoff games, and advancing in playoffs.  Then for Bertans, his contract does extend on year longer than KPs, but only $5M is guaranteed that year.

When all is said and done:
If Dinwiddie gets his guarantee and hits his bonuses - the Mavs will pay him and Bertans approximately $110M total through the end of the 23/24 season.  
If he doesn’t hit any of this the mavs will pay two of them $94M through 23/24
If they kept KP the would have paid him $101M through 23/24

So maybe this saves them $7M through 23/24 if these guys are so bad they don’t hit their bonuses and we waive them because we’re willing to give them money just to go away.

Then back to the length of contract - Dinwiddie’s contract is the same length as KP’s, but Bertans does go one year longer.  And as mentioned before there is still a partial guarantee, so he is owed at least $5M in 24/25.  But to only pay him $5M he had to be so bad that the mavs just paid him to go away.

So best financial scenario, these guys are trash and we pay both a combined $100M stretched out to 24/25 compared to the $101M we owed KP through 23/24. But we could potentially end up paying them $126M through 24/25.  So this is at best a marginal cost savings over the same period of time, and for it to be a marginal cost savings these guys both have to be disappointments.

Only upside as I see it is that the Mavs REALLY value the unguaranteed portion of their contracts as assets in the final year.  Mark said it’s really bad next year but get’s better after that.  The only way that works is if he is already thinking about trading these guys the year before their contracts expire.  Then you have a trade chip that allows another team to get $9M in savings in 23/24 and another trade chip that allows for up to $11M in savings in 24/25.

[MrGoat]

Looking through it, if Dinwiddie plays in only 6 more games on his current contract it becomes fully guaranteed. Still owed 10M year after next even if we keep him out.

Davis is guaranteed 5M in his final year.

So the breakdown looks like this: 

2023: KP: 33.8M, Dinwiddie + Bertans: 34M
2024: KP: 36M (player option), Dinwiddie + Bertans: 27M, goes up to 35.8M if Dinwiddie plays 6 more games
2025: KP: 0, Dinwiddie + Bertans: 5M, 16M if Bertans plays in 75% of games in 2023-4

So basically you take on 5M of salary in 2025 for the chance to save 9M in 2024 assuming we play Dinwiddie in no more than 5 games total. Of course if KP plays just well enough for Washington this and next season that he declines the player option for a chance at more long term security well... yikes

[Kammrath]

Re: Contract length - You are partially correct.  I looked into this a bit more. It’s not that they are “unguaranteed”, they are only partially guaranteed… sort of…. To start with Dinwiddie only $10M of his last year is guaranteed… unless he plays in 50 games this year and next.  Then it becomes fully guaranteed.  On top of this he has up to almost $8m in bonuses he gets pay just for playing 50 games or more, 50% of playoff games, and advancing in playoffs.  Then for Bertans, his contract does extend on year longer than KPs, but only $5M is guaranteed that year.

When all is said and done:
If Dinwiddie gets his guarantee and hits his bonuses - the Mavs will pay him and Bertans approximately $110M total through the end of the 23/24 season.  
If he doesn’t hit any of this the mavs will pay two of them $94M through 23/24
If they kept KP the would have paid him $101M through 23/24

So maybe this saves them $7M through 23/24 if these guys are so bad they don’t hit their bonuses and we waive them because we’re willing to give them money just to go away.

Then back to the length of contract - Dinwiddie’s contract is the same length as KP’s, but Bertans does go one year longer.  And as mentioned before there is still a partial guarantee, so he is owed at least $5M in 24/25.  But to only pay him $5M he had to be so bad that the mavs just paid him to go away.

So best financial scenario, these guys are trash and we pay both a combined $100M stretched out to 24/25 compared to the $101M we owed KP through 23/24. But we could potentially end up paying them $126M through 24/25.  So this is at best a marginal cost savings over the same period of time, and for it to be a marginal cost savings these guys both have to be disappointments.

Only upside as I see it is that the Mavs REALLY value the unguaranteed portion of their contracts as assets in the final year.  Mark said it’s really bad next year but get’s better after that.  The only way that works is if he is already thinking about trading these guys the year before their contracts expire.  Then you have a trade chip that allows another team to get $9M in savings in 23/24 and another trade chip that allows for up to $11M in savings in 24/25.

Thanks for digging into those details. I was not aware of any of the minutiae!

[F Gump]

Only so many minutes so it makes sense now, but what sucks is that Dragic would be probably a better fit and player than Dimwiddie.

Unlikely to hit it but the ceiling for the team would be so much higher with KP and Dragic 

Whether Dragic would be better or worse, I think their reality was that he had become unavailable, once he was traded to the Spurs. That's one reason why they chose to trade for Dinwiddie, because the long-hoped-for signing of GD was not gonna happen, SD was available, and they felt they needed another creator in the mix.