MAVS 94, KINGS 95

[mavsluvr]

Kidd quote on signing IT to fill in for this game --

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...01568?s=20

[cow]

The season feels kind of lost and I hope the recent loses while helmed by a lot of the replacements isn't making people blind to the fact that this team wasn't playing a good brand of basketball prior to the COVID hardships.  Luka and KP injuries certainly didn't help but I'm trying to think what our best win of the season is.  When we defeated winning teams in the past, it feels like the opposing team wasn't at full strength.  I think our Wolves win with our replacements is probably the team's best win of the season.  Ball movement has seemed better while we are shorthanded.

[mavsluvr]

The season feels kind of lost and I hope the recent loses while helmed by a lot of the replacements isn't making people blind to the fact that this team wasn't playing a good brand of basketball prior to the COVID hardships.  Luka and KP injuries certainly didn't help but I'm trying to think what our best win of the season is.  When we defeated winning teams in the past, it feels like the opposing team wasn't at full strength.  I think our Wolves win with our replacements is probably the team's best win of the season.  Ball movement has seemed better while we are shorthanded.

Iztok commented this morning on the effect Luka's absence has had in this regard. He concludes that more passing doesn't necessarily result in better shots. 

He notes that overall shot quality has improved, but largely because Luka and THJ aren't on the floor taking their tough shots. Shot quality for JB, KP, and Powell has decreased with Luka out, especially shots at the rim.

[mavsluvr]

According to BasketballNews.com, approximately one-third of the NBA is currently in COVID protocols. 



Dang.

[cow]

Iztok commented this morning on the effect Luka's absence has had in this regard. He concludes that more passing doesn't necessarily result in better shots. 

He notes that overall shot quality has improved, but largely because Luka and THJ aren't on the floor taking their tough shots. Shot quality for JB, KP, and Powell has decreased with Luka out, especially shots at the rim.

It might not equate to better shots but it might have a positive effect on the team by getting more people touching the ball on the offensive end and not having players standing around and watching.  And it's not like the normal rotation can't do that as I recall a game earlier in the season where the ball movement really stood out.  I wish I could remember the opponent but I remember thinking it was GSW-like.

[mavsluvr]

It might not equate to better shots but it might have a positive effect on the team by getting more people touching the ball on the offensive end and not having players standing around and watching.  And it's not like the normal rotation can't do that as I recall a game earlier in the season where the ball movement really stood out.  I wish I could remember the opponent but I remember thinking it was GSW-like.

Good points. I'm not saying more ball movement is a bad thing. It certainly contributes to basketball as a beautiful game, and can result in great shots. It's just not necessarily always a good thing, either. 

Also reporting iztok's response to the oft-made Mavs-specific comment that the ball moves more without Luka. The ball does move more, but the quality of the shots generated is often worse. And that moving the ball more is not usually a goal in and of itself, while making shots is.

[LukTheShadow]

More touches, lles touches, what you're doing with the ball is important. And motion w/o the ball, spacing is on the same side of shoot qual equation. Simple.
Kings played mucho better than Por 2days ago, mavs adaptd, less touches, could still won.
New guys brought energy, mavs need that this season big time. Relative stable D and unstable O still marks mavs games, with or wo LD. No much change from early season. With a lot of different players. Why?

TNX ML!

[SleepingHero]

 Burning the last timeout with 28 seconds left just to run the clock out. 
     
     Directing Brunson to holding the ball instead of running a play (KP said maybe they should have just let Brunson go to work, but he knew he could get a shot off and thought it was a reasonable decision). 
 
    
     Not instructing his players to guard the three-point line, even it meant giving up a layup (mathematically, some feel the risk was justified).

These 3 things are what lost the Mavs the game. I'm shocked by how poorly Kidd ran the last 30 seconds.

[BackToSquareOne]

Iztok commented this morning on the effect Luka's absence has had in this regard. He concludes that more passing doesn't necessarily result in better shots. 

He notes that overall shot quality has improved, but largely because Luka and THJ aren't on the floor taking their tough shots. Shot quality for JB, KP, and Powell has decreased with Luka out, especially shots at the rim.

However, that's not much of a conclusion. Even if his conclusion was that more passing is not resulting in better shots that's still a fairly weak conclusion. It appears to me that the roster(s) is still learning how to play this way - and the constant changes of the covid-hardship players doesn't help.

[mavsluvr]

He concludes that more passing doesn't necessarily result in better shots. 


However, that's not much of a conclusion. Even if his conclusion was that more passing is not resulting in better shots that's still a fairly weak conclusion. It appears to me that the roster(s) is still learning how to play this way - and the constant changes of the covid-hardship players doesn't help.

Yeah, it seems like more of an obvious thing to me. However, I believe it was generally in response to a number of queries from some fans who were curious as to why the Mavs are playing better without Luka (citing ball-moment stats). He made what seems to be the obvious point that more ball movement doesn't necessarily mean that the team is playing better, or that the team is better off without Luka. I am sure no one on this board would make such a mistake, but apparently a number of more casual fans were under the impression that one equals the other.

[Fuerza1]

4-5 without Luka is commendable. I look back at the 2010-11 season that was literally a championship roster yet they went 2-7 without Dirk when he got hurt. 

The game never comes down to one play but breaking down the Metu game-winner, Ntilikina played way too tight against a player who hasn't made a 3PT in over 2 weeks. 

Dirk said during his commentary stint that leaving the corner 3 guy is a cardinal sin in today's NBA. 

At the end of the day, Powell had a choice to make: give Fox the layup to force overtime, which still might have been contested by Ntilikina or give Metu (made two 3's earlier) the easiest shot in the game and potentially a Kings victory. They say he went to Stanford?

[mavsluvr]

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...79297?s=20


Re Powell's decision to leave Metu --

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...23652?s=20

[BackToSquareOne]

4-5 without Luka is commendable. I look back at the 2010-11 season that was literally a championship roster yet they went 2-7 without Dirk when he got hurt. 

The game never comes down to one play but breaking down the Metu game-winner, Ntilikina played way too tight against a player who hasn't made a 3PT in over 2 weeks. 

Dirk said during his commentary stint that leaving the corner 3 guy is a cardinal sin in today's NBA. 

At the end of the day, Powell had a choice to make: give Fox the layup to force overtime, which still might have been contested by Ntilikina or give Metu (made two 3's earlier) the easiest shot in the game and potentially a Kings victory. They say he went to Stanford?

tbh, it's really not obvious even in the cold light of day. 

Suppose DP doesn't make the rotation to fence off the drive. (As said, that's a standard part of the Mavs defence.) Let's give Fox 70% chance of making the lay-up or missing and making 2 free throws, a 10% chance of making the lay-up and a free throw, 20% misses or gets fouled and misses and misses a FT. Let's give the Mavs 50% in an OT game. That gives the Mavs 35% + 20% = 55% win equity.

Let's give Metu a 45% chance on a completely uncontested corner 3 on that night. That also gives the Mavs 55% win equity.

Sure, you can argue the numbers should be different, but I don't know which way.

[TXBamanut]

Ever ask yourself why he took Tyrese Haliburton, who is shooting 43% from 3 on the season, and put him in the backcourt to occupy Josh Green and do nothing?  It's because Haliburton was shooting 20% from 3 last night, so last night he wasn't a 43% shooter.  Ever consider why Gentry put Metu in the on the right side corner, the prime 3 point kickout spot?  Because Metu was shot 50% from 3 last night.

Everyone keeps saying that Powell left a 24% 3 point shooter, but that's not true. Last night, he was a 50% 3 point shooter.  Alvin Gentry is a seasoned coach in the NBA, and he's not an idiot.  I get it when instincts kick in, but you have to relaize who's out there and how they are playing.

[mavsluvr]

Ever ask yourself why he took Tyrese Haliburton, who is shooting 43% from 3 on the season, and put him in the backcourt to occupy Josh Green and do nothing?  It's because Haliburton was shooting 20% from 3 last night, so last night he wasn't a 43% shooter.  Ever consider why Gentry put Metu in the on the right side corner, the prime 3 point kickout spot?  Because Metu was shot 50% from 3 last night.

Everyone keeps saying that Powell left a 24% 3 point shooter, but that's not true. Last night, he was a 50% 3 point shooter.  Alvin Gentry is a seasoned coach in the NBA, and he's not an idiot.  I get it when instincts kick in, but you have to relaize who's out there and how they are playing.

I agree with the facts you stated, but I don't think Powell could fairly be expected to keep track of what percentage Metu was shooting from three on the night. That's on the coaching staff. If they wanted the players to deviate from their normal rotations and stay home on shooters, they should have given them that instruction in the timeout. I suppose it is possible they did, and that Powell/Brunson couldn't execute or went rogue. No one is going to tell us, one way or another. 

If the coaches didn't say anything, then I would bet that Powell's decision was made on instinct, rather than on an in-the-moment calculation based on Metu's up-to-the-minute three-point percentage. I suppose it is arguable that an instinct could be drilled in to have the default action be to stay home on a shooter when your team is up two on the likely last possession, although it is also arguable that you want your player to contest the layup in that situation and rely on his teammate to rotate over to cover his man. 

A real clusterfaff in numerous directions, but I have to say I don't love Kidd's coaching in clutch periods, including this one. This one play is not that important in the grand scheme, but it is such a microcosm of the Mavs' execution problems.

[omahen]

4-5 without Luka is commendable.

Mavs are actually 4-9 without Luka

[mavsluvr]

Mavs are actually 4-9 without Luka

And 12-9 with him.

[luka_skywalker_77]

Ever ask yourself why he took Tyrese Haliburton, who is shooting 43% from 3 on the season, and put him in the backcourt to occupy Josh Green and do nothing?  It's because Haliburton was shooting 20% from 3 last night, so last night he wasn't a 43% shooter.  Ever consider why Gentry put Metu in the on the right side corner, the prime 3 point kickout spot?  Because Metu was shot 50% from 3 last night.

Everyone keeps saying that Powell left a 24% 3 point shooter, but that's not true. Last night, he was a 50% 3 point shooter.  Alvin Gentry is a seasoned coach in the NBA, and he's not an idiot.  I get it when instincts kick in, but you have to relaize who's out there and how they are playing.

Because he is a terrible 3pt shooter. Let's say if Dallas was down 3, and you put Powell in a bail out corner, you'd be out of Dallas so fast your heels wouldn't touch the ground till New Mexico...

[mavsluvr]

OMG --

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/...47428?s=20

[dirkfansince1998]

OMG --

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/...47428?s=20

More content for Mavs trivia questions 20 years from now. Only hardcore fans will know about Isaiah Thomas and his cameo in a Mavs jersey.