Decision Making Timelines

[fifteenth]

So…
 
Nico and JKidd have both said something like "we'll see what we have around Christmas" regarding the state and future of the roster. The last couple games have me thinking about what that might mean, as well as what other decision-making timelines might exist (or should exist). 
 
State of the Roster Timeline
 
My take on Nico's and Kidd's statements has been that the Mavs may decide to swing for a major roster overhaul if the first months of the season don't show that this roster has the potential to contend. Based on the recent poor play, most of us may be thinking that the overhaul is coming. 
 
But the recent poor play has me wondering about other timelines as well.
 
State of the Coaching Timeline
 
Are Nico and Kidd a package deal, so much so, that Nico is married to Kidd? If the team greatly underperforms that which another coach was able to accomplish with essentially the same roster, would Nico consider making a coaching change? If so, when will Nico "know what he as" with Kidd. I'd assume Jason gets at least a year. If the team underperforms for the entire year, would Nico give him another year, or partial year, to show something? Or would he make a change?
 
State of the GM Timeline
 
Again, are Nico and Kidd a package deal? How long will Mark give Nico to do something with his franchise? Does Nico get a chance to remake the roster AND the use of a "it was the coaching" card before Mark considers making a change? Does that mean that Nico would have two years to show something? 
 
The team may turn a corner, figure something out and go on a run that makes these questions irrelevant for the time being. Maybe. But they certainly feel pertinent at the moment. 
 
What say you?

[cow]

If what we've heard about Nico is true and he was just waiting for the right opportunity to join a franchise, there is a 0% change that he's hitched his wagon to Kidd who has shown very little as a head coach.  For that reason, I'd say no to the question of if those two are a packaged deal.  

Cuban might be dumb in some aspects but he's not stupid.  I think on the conservative end, Nico will have through the 2024 season to start building this into a championship team.  That's also the first season he'll have a full compliment of assets to play with.  Baring a disaster, I wouldn't consider moving him until the 2025 season is in the books.

Cuban is also pretty stubborn so I think both Kidd and Nico will get long leashes though I believe Nico's will be much longer.   I think Kidd will get three seasons and I'd be shocked if he got less than two.

[Hypermav]

I am leaning overhaul even if the shooting trends better.  If they can be this bad now, it can happen again.  My overhaul keeps Luka. 

[fifteenth]

If what we've heard about Nico is true and he was just waiting for the right opportunity to join a franchise, there is a 0% change that he's hitched his wagon to Kidd who has shown very little as a head coach.  For that reason, I'd say no to the question of if those two are a packaged deal.  

Makes sense. I buy this. The genesis of my question comes from the reports that Nico and Kidd had talked for a while about working together as coach and GM. That makes me wonder if Nico would be more forgiving of Kidd than a GM should be of a coach. But what you say sounds right. 

Regarding your timelines for Nico and Kidd separately, I tend to buy your Nico timeline, but could see the coaching grace period as much shorter if the team vastly underperforms. If a coach can't help players to get things sorted out, and things spiral out of control, the coach can lose a team to the extent that a change pretty much has to be made.

[KillerLeft]

These are interesting questions, @"fifteenth". 

I agree with @"cow" about both the marriage and the estimate of runway for each. 

But, like everyone else, I'm fully expecting the other shoe to drop with Luka, at some point. So far, he's saying all the things we want to hear, and seems like he's happy and not meddling. I hope he stays like that forever, and I know @"omahen" has suggested that there's a good chance he will (I trust him on all things Luka). 

But, come on...what if this team doesn't make the playoffs this season? That might seem like a joke of an idea in two weeks, but then again, maybe not. I can definitely envision a scenario in which Luka goes scorched Earth pretty soon, and if so, I think Cuban will do whatever he wants.

[Benskix2]

I don't think Nico and Kidd are a packaged deal.  This is Nico's first NBA job though, he didn't hire Jason Kidd, and he's never going to have the authority to fire a coach without Cuban's consent, so it seems unlikely that Kidd doesn't get at least 2 full seasons to prove he's an idiot before Nico even approaches Cuban about firing him. 

New talent enters the league every year, standing pat on your roster isn't a good thing if you failed to advance in the playoffs.  I don't think Kidd will be judged by regular season performance against a f-ed up covid year.  I think this year will be the baseline and he will be expected to make improvement going forward.   

If things get bad I don't see Cuban sticking with Kidd over Nico, he probably secretly hopes to have the chance to fire him after the verbally commit to resign/never mind I'm a Knick thing.

[khaled1987]

I don't think Nico and Kidd are package deal, but I don't think Kidd's fate will be in Nico's hand. Cuban will be the one who gives the ok to fire him or fire him right away if he is ever fired. 
I mean it seems that way in many franchise, as GM needs their boss approval over wasting a few millions over firing a head coach, so imagine with Cuban who is one of the most involved owners in basketball decisions.

[SwisherPrice]

Yes they are a packaged deal. Nico and Kidd have an existing relationship...Cuban didn't even consider any other candidates or go through any interview process with anyone else. As soon as RC was gone, Kidd was hired almost immediately...with RC backing him as his replacement so that makes it seem like RC already knew Cuban's plan. To get Nico to join, Cuban needed Kidd in place.

[Kammrath]

State of the Roster Timeline

I am on the record saying that I think the combined moves of this TDL and upcoming summer will DRASTICALLY reshape the roster (75+% turnover from the roster inherited by Nico). From the time Nico was hired I personally have expected KP and JB to both be moved by this summer. If things "click" that might not happen.....but as of right now I think it will happen.

[fifteenth]

I am on the record saying that I think the combined moves of this TDL and upcoming summer will DRASTICALLY reshape the roster (75+% turnover from the roster inherited by Nico). From the time Nico was hired I personally have expected KP and JB to both be moved by this summer. If things "click" that might not happen.....but as of right now I think it will happen.

Yes, sir. Gotcha down. I was less inclined to believe you at the start of the season.

[mavsluvr]

State of the Coaching Timeline
 
Are Nico and Kidd a package deal, so much so, that Nico is married to Kidd? If the team greatly underperforms that which another coach was able to accomplish with essentially the same roster, would Nico consider making a coaching change? If so, when will Nico "know what he as" with Kidd. I'd assume Jason gets at least a year. If the team underperforms for the entire year, would Nico give him another year, or partial year, to show something? Or would he make a change?
 
State of the GM Timeline
 
Again, are Nico and Kidd a package deal? How long will Mark give Nico to do something with his franchise? Does Nico get a chance to remake the roster AND the use of a "it was the coaching" card before Mark considers making a change? Does that mean that Nico would have two years to show something? 

Package deal?


If Nico and Kidd are a package deal, then we know this front office is a pit of weirdness and dysfunction. 

Nico is a guy who has never been a GM before, or even worked for an NBA team before. Kidd is a guy who has a negative history as a head coach. Neither one of these guys has anything close to the stature and credentials necessary to impose highly unusual and material conditions like this in any kind of professionally run organization. 

I think they are almost certainly not a package deal. (And if they are, then we've really gone down the rabbit hole, and I wouldn't even know how to speculate on the ramifications of that.)


How much rope do they have?

Your questions carry the underlying assumption that Nico is the one who is going to be primarily assessing Kidd and making decisions about whether he stays or goes. 

I would be really surprised if Nico has the authority to fire Kidd. (In that respect, I would be surprised if any GM in the league had the authority to fire the head coach without the owner's approval.) I think Cuban will be the one to decide whether and when he has had enough. 

I don't know if Nico has enough authority for Cuban to hold him responsible for the assembly and development of the roster and performance of the team. My strong impression is that Cuban is still heavily involved, and that Nico is not the only guy he is accepting material input from. (We know, for example, that he is consulting with Finley, Dirk, and various other guys in the organization, and maybe even out of it.)

If we reword the questions, as how much time goes by until Cuban fires Kidd and/or Nico, that would make sense. It's hard to answer, because I don't think Cubes hired these guys based on their qualifications. I think they were just a couple of old boys that Cuban knew and liked, and so he hired them, maybe partly because they were at least arguably underqualified (and less likely to be in a position to try to impose their will). 

Hence, I don't actually think such a decision would necessarily be related to objective performance. That's not how Cuban historically runs his operation. It might be more along the lines of the upheaval triggered by Bob -- maybe a guy he knows secures his ear and convinces Cubes that he can do better. Or, for example, if Luka turns on some of the people in power, I think Mark would react to that. But, until there is some event that forces him to act, I can imagine him just rocking along with his buds as long as ticket sales remain high. 

As to when or if he decides to cut them loose, who knows? If this were your basic, traditionally run sports organization, I would imagine Kidd would get a couple seasons, maybe three. And that Nico might not be held to account for four or five seasons. But in this environment, who knows? Maybe fifteen years. Maybe six months.

ROSTER TIMELINE

I think they'll continue their attempt to reel in a big fish, whether by trade or free agency, and will make smaller changes on an annual basis. I doubt there is a particular timeline on it, unless Luka forces the issue.

[SleepingHero]

How long will Mark give Nico to do something with his franchise

I think Mark, as it's always been, is the one that does stuff with the franchise. And everyone else are basically advisors to him. 

That doesn't mean Mark is the one making trade calls, but nothing gets approved/done without Mark signing off. 

So with that in mind, I think Kidd gets at minimum 2-3 years before any change is made. Cubes doesn't like to make drastic coaching changes. 

When it comes to trades, I sure hope Mark/Nico has something cooking by January. The team has needed a fresh face for quite some time. I have no clue why Cuban suddenly now loves random role players. We saw under Dirk that Cuban made trade after trade to find some new guys if it wasn't working out. For whatever reason Cuban is in love with a load of 7-8th guys and doesn't want to move them. 

In terms of who I'd like to see the Mavs target, there are different tiers of guys. I have them sorted as  " Tier 1: Wil; give away picks for them/core guys, Tier 2: Lateral move, one dimensional, Tier 3: End of bench/minor assets guys" 

Tier 1:
Jerami Grant 
Brandon Ingram
De'Aaron Fox (Is he even available?)
Myles Turner/Sabonis (Hard to imagine the Pacers doing any deals with us given RC)
Deandre Ayton (Biggest splash move. Doubt the Suns rock the boat in the midst of a 17 win streak)
CJ McCollum (Maybe Portland is enticed by THJ and a load of role players...?)
Joe Ingles (If Utah is dumb enough to trade this dude I'd love the Mavs to go after him)
Dejounte Murray

Tier 2:
Ricky Rubio
Buddy Hield 
Daniel Theis
Valanciunas (don't think he's eligible to be traded this year sadly due to his extension)
Steven Adams
Montrezl Harrell 
Dragic (though I think he'll be bought out before we make a trade)
Marcus Smart
Tyus Jones (Sneaky good 2nd/3rd guard instant offense guy)
Eric Gordon (Hard to make the salaries work, but maybe there's a 3-team trade available here with NYK involving Wall...)


Tier 3: 
Derrick Favors with TPE
Serge Ibaka with TPE (No shot Clips do it, but would just mention it anyways)
Josh Hart
Thad Young 

Plenty of guys here that all would make a significant difference. Only 100% sure fire keepers to me are Luka/KP/DFS/Kleber.

[fifteenth]

@"mavsluvr", I hope you'll laugh with me here. Last night when I saw "by: mavsluvr" beside "last post" I thought "here comes the 'Cuban is actually the boss' post!"

 

Your questions carry the underlying assumption that Nico is the one who is going to be primarily assessing Kidd and making decisions about whether he stays or goes. 

I would be really surprised if Nico has the authority to fire Kidd. (In that respect, I would be surprised if any GM in the league had the authority to fire the head coach without the owner's approval.) I think Cuban will be the one to decide whether and when he has had enough. 

Yes, I have thought that Cuban hired Nico to be the actual GM and that Mark intended to attempt to allow his GM to be the GM. If I consider what evidence there is for your view or mine, I admit that the past weighs in on your side quite heavily. However, I saw and heard things in the early press conferences and interviews that made me think that Mark may have decided to hire a real GM. That doesn't mean that I don't think Cuban won't use his final approval and veto authority (wow, a triple negative!) that comes with being the owner of a business. I certainly could be wrong about all of that, and Nico could simply be the former shoe salesman, staff organizer that you have described. 

I don't know if Nico has enough authority for Cuban to hold him responsible for the assembly and development of the roster and performance of the team. My strong impression is that Cuban is still heavily involved, and that Nico is not the only guy he is accepting material input from. (We know, for example, that he is consulting with Finley, Dirk, and various other guys in the organization, and maybe even out of it.)

My working, barely educated guess is that the former situation, where Donnie (the "GM") was simply one voice among many giving input to the owner (and real GM), was an organizational dysfunction that Mark intended to fix with the hire of a new GM. I believe that an owner can have final approval and veto power and get high level input from a board of directors (Dirk, etc.) while still honoring a healthy organizational structure. A healthy organizational structure can even have a leadership team (Cuban, Nico, Fin, Kidd, etc) that has discussion together, but still honor the organizational structure. 
 
I actually think Cuban is attempting to honor an actual organizational structure and that he is actually allowing Nico to run this franchise. Again...I could be wrong!! The old free for all structure where organizational structure means almost nothing could still be in place. Or Cuban could have set out to correct the dysfunction and then failed to keep himself from reintroducing the dysfunction. 
 
So, most of our difference of opinion in this thread about what Nico is tasked to do stems from the interpretive choices each of us has made given the past, the press conferences and interviews since Nico was hired, and bits of opinion given by various writers on the topic. 

If Nico and Kidd are a package deal, then we know this front office is a pit of weirdness and dysfunction. 

Nico is a guy who has never been a GM before, or even worked for an NBA team before. Kidd is a guy who has a negative history as a head coach. Neither one of these guys has anything close to the stature and credentials necessary to impose highly unusual and material conditions like this in any kind of professionally run organization. 

I think they are almost certainly not a package deal. (And if they are, then we've really gone down the rabbit hole, and I wouldn't even know how to speculate on the ramifications of that.)

I don't think they're a package deal either. The question came to mind because it sounds like Nico and Kidd came to the Mavs as a bit of a package deal. So I was playing with what that might mean for their future. But as I turned it over I came to the same conclusion as you.

[michaeltex]

DAL is 10-9 with a string of bad losses and a close win in the last week. There have been some ugly wins and uglier losses. But the team (to borrow a baseball term) seems to be scufflin' and there doesn't seem to be a trend toward improvement. At least IMO.

The next 12 games, including Christmas, include some I consider winnable (NOP, OKC, LAL?) and some that are challenges (BKN, MKE, UTA). But, TBH I have zero confidence the team will even be competitive in any particular game, so who knows what the record will be. It feels like everything is confusion and chaos and that seems reflective of the game performance.

Personally, I've seen enough to warrant trying to reach a bit on trade opportunities, but that's hard to do without assets.

So I'm watching to see if Nico is able to start using his network of contacts to bring in some new blood to get things moving. I'm also watching to see if Kidd is able to instill a team identity. Distribution of power by having Luka defer ('trust') to his teammates isn't paying off so something needs to change and everyone has seen enough to start making decisions and taking action to set up the rest of the season.

I don't think Kidd is in imminent danger of firing, but he might lose the team if frustration builds due to losing games. Nico isn't in any danger yet, but the pressure has to be building to do something positive.

The team may be mostly leftovers from Donnie and Rick, but it's Nico and Kidd's team now.

[mavsluvr]

@mavsluvr, I hope you'll laugh with me here. Last night when I saw "by: mavsluvr" beside "last post" I thought "here comes the 'Cuban is actually the boss' post!"

Uh-oh! I'll try not to be such a JOHNNY ONE-NOTE!

[fifteenth]

Uh-oh! I'll try not to be such a JOHNNY ONE-NOTE!

Oh, no...you're not! 

Interestingly (or maybe not), I'm rererereading LOTR again at the moment, and just the other day I read Frodo saying, "Don't take names to yourself. It's unwise, whether they are true or false." 

Your takes are varied and sundry!! 

It's just that we've talked about Nico a few times and so, when I saw that you posted, I thought you might think that Nico didn't have authority such that my questions would even apply to him.

[ItsGoTime]

My working, barely educated guess is that the former situation, where Donnie (the "GM") was simply one voice among many giving input to the owner (and real GM), was an organizational dysfunction that Mark intended to fix with the hire of a new GM. I believe that an owner can have final approval and veto power and get high level input from a board of directors (Dirk, etc.) while still honoring a healthy organizational structure. A healthy organizational structure can even have a leadership team (Cuban, Nico, Fin, Kidd, etc) that has discussion together, but still honor the organizational structure. 
 
I actually think Cuban is attempting to honor an actual organizational structure and that he is actually allowing Nico to run this franchise. Again...I could be wrong!! The old free for all structure where organizational structure means almost nothing could still be in place. Or Cuban could have set out to correct the dysfunction and then failed to keep himself from reintroducing the dysfunction. 
 
So, most of our difference of opinion in this thread about what Nico is tasked to do stems from the interpretive choices each of us has made given the past, the press conferences and interviews since Nico was hired, and bits of opinion given by various writers on the topic. 

This is how I think it is too with one caveat. This past offseason I think either Cuban basically ran it with Nico being so new, OR, Cuban made a deal with Nico upon hiring him that he and Kidd would keep the team intact and work with them until...let's say...Christmas, then Nico and Kidd would have their feet wet and Cuban would then be just the final "yes" or "no" decision maker.


I agree with Kamm that by this time next year about 75% of the roster will be turned over or have significantly lesser roles (this second part is my thinking, not's Kamm's).

[fifteenth]

OR, Cuban made a deal with Nico upon hiring him that he and Kidd would keep the team intact and work with them until...let's say...Christmas

now that's interesting

[ItsGoTime]

now that's interesting

It's a nagging thought that I've had for a while.

[Kammrath]

Cuban made a deal with Nico upon hiring him that he and Kidd would keep the team intact and work with them until...let's say...Christmas, then Nico and Kidd would have their feet wet and Cuban would then be just the final "yes" or "no" decision maker.

I think this is a legit possibility. It may not have been a "directive" from Cuban, but a collaborative decision by ALL of them. Something like, "Let's take this slow. Let's figure out what we have in all these players now that everything has been shaken up from a coaching and organizational standpoint. Let's give KP a chance with a new coach and environment and better health. Etc."

I will continue to point back to Chad Ford's interview this summer which felt very prescient (and he seemed to have REAL insider information on the Mavs in a way that surprised me). He told Mavs fans to tap the brakes on Nico making any changes that first summer and to give him about a year. His words have stuck with me and continue to guide my own predictions.