MAVS 96, CAVALIERS 114

[omahen]

I would like to find some stats on 3pt shot quality or expected 3FG% comparing this year versus last year. 

I don't know but it seems like the offense just isn't flowing correctly. 

Would be interesting to see if more shots are being taken early or late in the shot clock. 

Also probably impossible to find but it seems like guys aren't getting as many shots in rhythm, especially THJ. 

There are times when THJ catches and rises and you just know it's going in. Seems like he's getting fewer of those looks and he's shooting more from different spots on the floor and/or off the dribble.

We know Luka and KP's shot charts are very different than last year. Stands to reason it may be different for others as well.

Cato wrote about players a couple of days ago. Here is about THJ I find interesting

I’m not sure Hardaway himself has been worse this season than last year, or the one before. His numbers — and, subsequently, his impact — have been worse. But he looks like the same player he’s been since 2019. He’s shooting the same shots, or at least he’s trying to. The impact of the Mavericks’ spacing concerns has centered around Doncic, Porzingis and Dwight Powell. It might actually be Hardaway who has suffered the most from the floor’s shrinkage. 

Yes, Hardaway has shot worse. The highest volume of his 3s are classified as “open” ones, with a defender 4-6 feet away from him, and he’s uncharacteristically converting only 28.1 percent of them. But he’s hitting almost 49 percent of his “wide open” 3s, which prevents me from blaming this on random variance alone. We know Hardaway is a rhythm player; we saw how bad he was in the 2019-20 campaign before Rick Carlisle started him. I reckon his drives and layups build up a rhythm he’s lacking this year. He’ll hit more 3s, but getting him angled toward the rim may be even more important.

[Kammrath]

I would like to find some stats on 3pt shot quality or expected 3FG% comparing this year versus last year. 

Last year the Mavs shot 17.5 wide-open (closest defender is 6+ feet away) threes per game at 37.0%.

This year the Mavs are shooting 17.8 wide-open threes per game at 40.8%.


Last year the Mavs shot 16.5 open (closest defender is 4-6 feet away) threes per game at 36.9%. 

This year they are shooting 15.9 open threes per game at 27.7%


Last year the Mavs shot 3.9 tight (closest defender is 2-4 feet away) threes per game at 29.7%.

This year they are shooting 4.6 tight threes per game at 23.0%.


So the Mavs are down 0.6 open threes per game and up 0.7 tight threes per game and up 0.3 wide-open threes per game. So about 0.5 to 1 three every game is in tighter coverage than last year. But they are also shooting 1.2 more shots per game than last year. 

So from a coverage standpoint the Mavs are getting basically just as good of looks from three as they did last year. 

[mavsluvr]

Thanks for the recap. A couple of observations from my side. I don't think rebounding was a problem. Sure Cavs had many more rebounds, but this is due to huge number of missed shots by Mavs. Cavs only had 5 offensive rebounds which may be a better indicator about rebounding status.

A more precise stat would be the rebounding rate, which (as you know) is the percentage of available rebounds collected. 


Defensive rebound rate:  Cavs 86%, Mavs 74%

Offensive rebound rate:  Cavs 14%, Mavs 14%

[dirkfansince1998]

Last year the Mavs shot 17.5 wide-open (closest defender is 6+ feet away) threes per game at 37.0%.

This year the Mavs are shooting 17.8 wide-open threes per game at 40.8%.


Last year the Mavs shot 16.5 open (closest defender is 4-6 feet away) threes per game at 36.9%. 

This year they are shooting 15.9 open threes per game at 27.7%


Last year the Mavs shot 3.9 tight (closest defender is 2-4 feet away) threes per game at 29.7%.

This year they are shooting 4.6 tight threes per game at 23.0%.


So the Mavs are down 0.6 open threes per game and up 0.7 tight threes per game and up 0.3 wide-open threes per game. So about 1 three every other game is in tighter coverage than last year. But they are also shooting 1.2 more shoots per game than last year. 

So from a coverage standpoint the Mavs are getting basically just as good of looks from three as they did last year. 

But that obviously isn´t the only thing that matters for shooters. I think the problem isn´t the shooting itself. It starts with the offense in the paint. Mavs aren´t scoring in the paint. They aren´t creating as much scoring opportunities after penetration. That´s how the Mavs used to create 3s in the last two seasons. Inside out. Drive and kick.
Giving the shooter the opportunity to get in position and face the rim prior to the shot. 50 drives per game in 19/20. 47 in 20/21. Less than 40 this season. From close to the top of the league to the bottom of the league.

Mavs rank 29th in PIP. And as you pointed out. It´s mostly about Luka and his pick and roll partners that aren´t scoring at the volume and efficiency that we saw in previous seasons.

I guess it is a little bit of a chicken-egg situation. Bad shooting and spacing impacting the inside scoring. Worse inside scoring and less penetration leading to less kick out opportunities. What is the real problem?
In my opinion. Probably both. The Mavs just  haven´t found their rhythm on offense and I don´t think the current scheme fits the available personal.

[KillerLeft]

I don´t think the current scheme fits the available personal.

This might seem like an overcomplicated statement to some, but I think I agree, at least to an extent. 

Kidd obviously wants players to floor the ball more and be more creative, as we've seen an uptick of that from everyone except for maybe THJ. Ok, I can see how that might be something worth trying. 

But why, then, if that was the plan, were the three off-season acquisitions ALL 3&D guys? I mean, Ntilikina has flashed the ability to be a little more than that at times so far, but Kidd even has Bullock out there attacking closeouts (badly). I don't think the players signed are as bad as they have looked to this point, but I do think they would look better in last season's offense. And, if I was planning to run this season's offense, I might have prioritized playmaking a little bit more. 

Who knows, maybe they did look for that and just couldn't get it done. Lowry would've made a pretty big difference with this offensive approach, and we basically know they wanted him.

[cow]

The best part of the game last night was listening to the Cavs broadcast team which is probably the worse in the league while they absolutely roasted the Mavs (shot selection and defense amongst other things) and were absolutely correct.

Absolutely no to Kemba or Robinson. Both are weak defenders. The answer to this mess is improving the defense even though the offense also sucks. 

If no other change from outside put Bullock and or Frank N/Josh Green in the starting line up. Have more scoring but weaker defense on the bench. With Luka and KP in the starting line up you need defensive intensity from the other spots.   

DP and Maxi have to go. Not blaming them for last night’s loss but those two along with KP might be the worst big men defensive trio in the league.

I think where we differ is that I'm not trying  to improve this mess .  Kemba's corpse is my push towards a rebuild.  And as bad as Kemba's corpse is, he'd still upgrade our pitiful depth.

[mavsluvr]

Moses was +2.

Obviously best player on the floor for Mavs.

But, of course! End of Story! Move along, nothing more to discuss here!

[KillerLeft]

But, of course! End of Story! Move along, nothing more to discuss here!

I'm of course getting the snark you and @"omahen" are exchanging, but if I could capitalize on this opportunity to bring it up:

Can we talk about just how utterly terrible Brown was yesterday? A-W-F-U-L. Lost. Not ready. Not close to being ready. 

I think my biggest pet peeve with sports fans is the whole "just play ______ already. He CAN'T be any worse than _____!"

Turns out that yes, he can.

[Kammrath]

But that obviously isn´t the only thing that matters for shooters. I think the problem isn´t the shooting itself. It starts with the offense in the paint. Mavs aren´t scoring in the paint. They aren´t creating as much scoring opportunities after penetration. That´s how the Mavs used to create 3s in the last two seasons. Inside out. Drive and kick.
Giving the shooter the opportunity to get in position and face the rim prior to the shot. 50 drives per game in 19/20. 47 in 20/21. Less than 40 this season. From close to the top of the league to the bottom of the league.

Mavs rank 29th in PIP. And as you pointed out. It´s mostly about Luka and his pick and roll partners that aren´t scoring at the volume and efficiency that we saw in previous seasons.

I guess it is a little bit of a chicken-egg situation. Bad shooting and spacing impacting the inside scoring. Worse inside scoring and less penetration leading to less kick out opportunities. What is the real problem?
In my opinion. Probably both. The Mavs just  haven´t found their rhythm on offense and I don´t think the current scheme fits the available personal.

I can definitely buy this to an extent. 

To be clear: You are saying that the "open" looks that shooters get are better (even if the defender is the same distance away) when that look comes from a kick out from the paint? 

I 100% think Luka's inability to penetrate as well as years past is affecting the offense. He is only down 2.0 drives per game (20.3 to 18.3) but he is shooting more and passing less off his drives than last year. AND even though he is shooting more the looks are much worse and more difficult than last year, with only 11% of his shots coming at the rim (18% last year and 26% the year before that). 

This can be explained in two ways 1) poorer spacing in the offense and 2) poorer conditioning from Luka. 

I personally think the lion's share is Luka's conditioning and being noticeably a step or two slower than years past. I think Luka's inability to beat his man like in years past has led to poorer spacing for the team across the board (when Luka gets one on one isolation opportunities he is not getting around his guy in the same way as he used to). Don't get me wrong though, there are definitely times the scheme and Luka's teammates are the culprit for poor spacing as well. 

I think in years past Luka's superior play elevated his teammates to a higher level. Others though think the teammates are bringing Luka down. I disagree because generally speaking I think Luka is the tide that raises the boats of his teammates....I don't think his teammates are the tide that raises the boat of Luka. NOTE: Though of course better teammates WOULD be helpful for Luka, so don't misunderstand me.

[mavsluvr]

I'm of course getting the snark you and @"omahen" are exchanging, but if I could capitalize on this opportunity to bring it up:

Can we talk about just how utterly terrible Brown was yesterday? A-W-F-U-L. Lost. Not ready. Not close to being ready. 

I think my biggest pet peeve with sports fans is the whole "just play ______ already. He CAN'T be any worse than _____!"

Turns out that yes, he can.

It was so bad that I almost felt sorry for the kid -- hope it doesn't turn into a confidence-destroying outing.

Before the game, Kidd suggested he was putting Moses out there to "keep the fans happy." (Be careful what you wish for, fans.) I suspect maybe they really threw him on because Willie was out and they thought they could use him to absorb a few fouls. At any rate, starting him against Allen seemed like a basketball version of cruelty -- Jarrett made him look straight out of the junior varsity.

Agree on the band of fans who are always clamoring for deep bench guys to start, or at least play. Breaking news -- it almost never works. There is a reason those guys aren't getting minutes. I don't think Kidd did Moses any favors throwing him into the deep end like that.

[omahen]

Can we talk about just how utterly terrible Brown was yesterday? A-W-F-U-L. Lost. Not ready. Not close to being ready.

I think it was a really wrong move to put him in this position. I even suspect Kidd did that intentionally as in - here you have M. Brown you want so you can see why we play WCS. Not many teams out there that would be tougher assignment for poor fellow. I maintain that playing a non shooter next to how they want to play KP is a mistake and I don't care if his name is Powell, WCS or Brown.

[dirkfansince1998]

To be clear: You are saying that the "open" looks that shooters get are better (even if the defender is the same distance away) when that look comes from a kick out from the paint? 

I think for the majority of catch and shoot players (except for the best in the league) it is a lot easier to shoot when they are already facing the rim. That´s the basic practice shot. Aligned to the rim and ready to get into the shooting motion as soon as they catch the ball.

[Kammrath]

I think for the majority of catch and shoot players (except for the best in the league) it is a lot easier to shoot when they are already facing the rim. That´s the basic practice shot. Aligned to the rim and ready to get into the shooting motion as soon as they catch the ball.

Cool, that's what I thought you were saying and I definitely think it makes sense.

[hakeemfaan]

The best part of the game last night was listening to the Cavs broadcast team which is probably the worse in the league while they absolutely roasted the Mavs (shot selection and defense amongst other things) and were absolutely correct.


I think where we differ is that I'm not trying  to improve this mess .  Kemba's corpse is my push towards a rebuild.  And as bad as Kemba's corpse is, he'd still upgrade our pitiful depth.

Kemba was a major acquisition for Boston. They couldn’t wait to send him away.  Now the same thing in NY and not just that he is out of the rotation.  I agree we can use upgrades on both offense and defense but my stance is just say no to offense who can’t play defense. If your core is Luka and or KP then get more defense around them. 

Brunson and THJ are good. IMO they are good bench players. We need 2 better starting defenders around Luka/KP and for the fifth starter, I can compromise on a bit of defense provided it is a solid shooter.  Given that 2 teams that highly desired him have given up on him, I don’t want to waste any asset capital on him. If he is cut and comes cheap the sure take a flyer.

[dirkfansince1998]

I'm of course getting the snark you and @"omahen" are exchanging, but if I could capitalize on this opportunity to bring it up:

Can we talk about just how utterly terrible Brown was yesterday? A-W-F-U-L. Lost. Not ready. Not close to being ready. 

I think my biggest pet peeve with sports fans is the whole "just play ______ already. He CAN'T be any worse than _____!"

Turns out that yes, he can.

Was he really worse than Powell or WCS. Don´t think so. Just as disappointing but given the lack of reps with the starters and overall experience I did not expect more.
Agree with @"omahen". KP needs to be center and cannot play next to a non shooting big if they want to give him more paint touches. Earlier in the season we saw some pretty succesful lineups that featured four guards next to KP or Boban. Those are the kind of lineups that I would like to see in the coming weeks.
In this case Luka would be the PF on defense. Easily his best position on that end. One of the best post defenders on the roster and probably the best rebounder. That´s how Slovenia used him in the summer.

[Kammrath]

Was he really worse than Powell or WCS. Don´t think so. Just as disappointing but given the lack of reps with the starters and overall experience I did not expect more.
Agree with @omahen. KP needs to be center and cannot play next to a non shooting big if they want to give him more paint touches. Earlier in the season we saw some pretty succesful lineups that featured four guards next to KP or Boban. Those are the kind of lineups that I would like to see in the coming weeks.
In this case Luka would be the PF on defense. Easily his best position on that end. One of the best post defenders on the roster and probably the best rebounder. That´s how Slovenia used him in the summer.

Great post.

Didn't think Moses was bad considering the circumstances. 

I definitely think the 4-guard lineups have been the best ones this season (from eye test alone). If Luka is going to be a step slow, then he MUST be the PF.

[mavsluvr]

This might seem like an overcomplicated statement to some, but I think I agree, at least to an extent. 

Kidd obviously wants players to floor the ball more and be more creative, as we've seen an uptick of that from everyone except for maybe THJ. Ok, I can see how that might be something worth trying. 

But why, then, if that was the plan, were the three off-season acquisitions ALL 3&D guys? I mean, Ntilikina has flashed the ability to be a little more than that at times so far, but Kidd even has Bullock out there attacking closeouts (badly). I don't think the players signed are as bad as they have looked to this point, but I do think they would look better in last season's offense. And, if I was planning to run this season's offense, I might have prioritized playmaking a little bit more. 

Who knows, maybe they did look for that and just couldn't get it done. Lowry would've made a pretty big difference with this offensive approach, and we basically know they wanted him.

I am still keeping an open mind about Kidd, since it's still only 19 games, in, but if he were to receive a grade today, I would have to say that he appears to be a significant downgrade from Carlisle. 

Carlisle apparently had turned into a crotchety old curmudgeon, and maybe it was high time for a change of personalities, but I question whether this is the right fit. 

It appears to me that Kidd wants to coach a team that relies on defense as its engine. Which is okay in a vacuum, but this roster was not built with that type of scheme in mind -- quite the opposite, in fact. 

He also prefers a more mid-range heavy offense to Carlisle's analytics-based spacing schemes, and this roster was built for something else entirely. Ironically, what the new "system" seems to have resulted in is a lot of seriously janky spacing, but still a heavy reliance on high-variance three-point shooting. 

As to which, I am starting to think the poor three-point shooting is not just a statistical outlier. It's hard to explain why they are missing so many good looks. I think it is worth considering whether, now that they are being asked to devote so much energy to actions they don't do well, they don't have much left for things that they should be good at.  

In an odd way, there might be a silver (or at least light gray) lining to this. Carlisle had a knack for putting limited players in a position to succeed, which may have papered over enough cracks to allow the front office (Cuban) to delay accepting the real limitations of this roster. Kidd doesn't seem to have that same ability (yet, anyway), and maybe the poor results will force attention to be paid. 

Kidd is still trying stuff, so it's not fair to pass a final judgment on him yet. So, we'll wait. But, with respect to the roster being one that has a lot of exploding upside if only a coach could find the magic key, we've been waiting a l-o-n-g time to see evidence of that. Now that the book has been written on how to attack them, I suspect this particular group may have already peaked. Naturally, would love to be wrong.

[ItsGoTime]

I am still keeping an open mind about Kidd, since it's still only 19 games, in, but if he were to receive a grade today, I would have to say that he appears to be a significant downgrade from Carlisle. 

Carlisle apparently had turned into a crotchety old curmudgeon, and maybe it was high time for a change of personalities, but I question whether this is the right fit. 

It appears to me that Kidd wants to coach a team that relies on defense as its engine. Which is okay in a vacuum, but this roster was not built with that type of scheme in mind -- quite the opposite, in fact. 

He also prefers a more mid-range heavy offense to Carlisle's analytics-based spacing schemes, and this roster was built for something else entirely. Ironically, what the new "system" seems to have resulted in is a lot of seriously janky spacing, but still a heavy reliance on high-variance three-point shooting. 

As to which, I am starting to think the poor three-point shooting is not just a statistical outlier. It's hard to explain why they are missing so many good looks. I think it is worth considering whether, now that they are being asked to devote so much energy to actions they don't do well, they don't have much left for things that they should be good at.  

In an odd way, there might be a silver (or at least light gray) lining to this. Carlisle had a knack for putting limited players in a position to succeed, which may have papered over enough cracks to allow the front office (Cuban) to delay accepting the real limitations of this roster. Kidd doesn't seem to have that same ability (yet, anyway), and maybe the poor results will force attention to be paid. 

Kidd is still trying stuff, so it's not fair to pass a final judgment on him yet. So, we'll wait. But, with respect to the roster being one that has a lot of exploding upside if only a coach could find the magic key, we've been waiting a l-o-n-g time to see evidence of that. Now that the book has been written on how to attack them, I suspect this particular group may have already peaked. Naturally, would love to be wrong.

So much great insight in this post. Very much what I've been thinking so far! PotD!

[meistermatze]

I thought the Wizards' game was disappointing but that was at least entertaining and, I felt, unnecessarily lost. We could have won that one but it happens...

but THIS?

Just awful. One of the worst outings I have ever seen and that says a lot, considering the last couple of years.

Kidd threw Brown under the bus to prove a point. He played horrible and was nothing close to being ready. I could totally see how an athlet could not recover from something like this.

I really don't have any words. We looked really good in some games this year, but this was just horrible.

I mean it is painfully apparent that this group is not good enough at shooting the ball - they are missing so many wide-open shots and opponents are punishing us. Their only gameplan is to limit Luka and it works. We can't win like this. Luka goes beast-mode and we lose by 30 to the freakin' Cavs - what gives?

[KillerLeft]

Was he really worse than Powell or WCS. Don´t think so. Just as disappointing but given the lack of reps with the starters and overall experience I did not expect more.
Agree with @"omahen". KP needs to be center and cannot play next to a non shooting big if they want to give him more paint touches. Earlier in the season we saw some pretty succesful lineups that featured four guards next to KP or Boban. Those are the kind of lineups that I would like to see in the coming weeks.
In this case Luka would be the PF on defense. Easily his best position on that end. One of the best post defenders on the roster and probably the best rebounder. That´s how Slovenia used him in the summer.

Agree to disagree on whether or not he was worse than those other two guys, although I can agree that they have both been pretty bad, too. I do not think they would have allowed Allen to get so many touches less than a foot away from the rim, personally. I actually thought the first half of Moses might have been the worst center play I have ever seen since I have been following the team. Maybe I’m overreacting.

And please tell me that you know that I also agree with playing KP at Center. It has been my battle cry for over two years, and you and I have had many conversations about it. I realize you’re making a nuanced point based on how they are trying to use him this year, specifically, but I actually think that’s the way to go regardless of how he’s being used.

---

I really don't have any words. We looked really good in some games this year, but this was just horrible.

This pretty much sums it up for me, too, and I keep coming back mentally to the fact that the Mavericks have only beaten two teams who are above .500.