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TAKE DAT WIT YOU 11/22
#1
IS IT TIME TO SOUND THE ALARM ON THE MAVS?

Brian and Mark duke it out on this question. 


LAST THREE GAMES

All played without Luka. In the two Suns games, Chris Paul was brilliant in stretches, whereas the Mavs faltered down the stretch.

BD. Kidd says that these games have value despite the losses, because the team is learning how to win without Luka. Well, maybe they’re learning experiences, but they surely have not learned to win without Luka. At most, they might claim a moral victory for the first game. It doesn’t appear that they learned much from the experience, since they lost in similar ways in the following two matches.


ROSTER

BD 

After 16 games, we’re back in the same place we always are — three or four good players, and no one else who can step up. The role players just don’t have another gear to go to. 

This is on the front office. The Mavs simply can’t survive for the next 5-10 years swinging and missing in every offseason. The Bullock-Sterling bets are not working thus far; of course, it’s too early to write those guys off, but there is little to be encouraged about at this point. The Mavs are playing with essentially the same roster for the third season. The marginal changes they made before this offseason have mostly been busts, and it looks like the 2021 offseason is going the same way.

It is frustrating that the Mavs just can’t seem to make progress in this area. It is possible to improve rosters without breaking the bank. Look what an impact guys like Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac have had. The Clippers, Bulls, Suns, Knicks, Lakers have all done it in the last couple of years.  But what do the Mavs have to show for three offseasons? Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown. 

For fans who are waiting for Dragic to fly out of the sky like Superman and save the day, Dragic is not that kind of answer to this team’s problems.  He could help a little for a season or two, for sure, but he doesn’t solve this team’s lack of playmaking, short-term or long-term. In Toronto, he is virtually out of the rotation altogether. At any rate, still don’t expect any movement regarding him until the deadline. 

Most teams have four or five guys who can make plays. The Mavs have two — Luka and Brunson, and two guys who can occasionally get themselves a shot in KP and THJ. 

Kidd is dragging for help in unlikely places.  For example, FN is getting meaningful minutes, and that could work out, but now he’s hurt. Burke has played in the last couple of games, but normally doesn’t see the floor. WCS can occasionally surprise by stepping up for a few plays, but you can hardly depend on that. There’s only so much blood you can squeeze out of a turnip. 


PLAYERS

Hardaway

BD.  THJ is too talented to be playing this badly. He has always been inconsistent, and it looks like he always will be. The question is why. Brian thinks it can only mean that he is not putting the work in to be able to do the things that would help him contribute when his shot isn’t falling. He’s not driving to the basket much, he evidently isn’t practicing enough to be a more consistent shooter, and he’s not amping up his defense. 

MF. Mark doesn’t agree with any of that. Thinks that THJ is important to the team in many positive ways, including leadership. Tim works very hard, and is always trying to step up his game. Inconsistent shooting is just a part of being a volume shooter — it’s not only Tim who experiences that. A 40% shooter will shoot 6-10 one night and 2-10 another night. Some of his shots are difficult, such as late-clock situations where he is under duress. Tim would be the first person to admit that his shooting isn’t up to par yet. Mark thinks he will revert to the mean as the season progresses.  

Brunson. Has made a step forward this season. The question is whether the Mavs can/should keep him. He may not want to continue as the second banana, but a lot depends on what kinds of opportunities he can get from other teams. HIghly doubt that he will get traded this season, even if the team thinks the tea leaves point toward his leaving. 

DFS and Maxi. Dorian’s shooting has been better in the last eight games. He’ll probably return to being the guy we expect him to be as the season progresses. Maxi feels good, but admits that he is not yet up to speed with his conditioning or rhythm. It will take a little time for him to get back to being himself. 

Porzingis 

He has shown very exciting progress, but . . . . We understand that he wants to be an offensive focus and play in the post. The question is whether that is the best strategy for the team. They have been trying to feed him every time down the court, and he likes that. 

BD. KP is not a post player in the style of an Olajuwon or a Tim Duncan, where you can just dump the ball off to him and let him work.  The Mavs are going too far in trying to cater to KP by pretending that he is that sort of player. KP might get by with posting up Reggie Jackson, but him making a living out of posting up the likes of Paul George doesn’t cut it.  

MF. It’s not clear that this force-feeding of KP will continue once Luka comes back. It’s just part of stuff they’re trying out, and it's not time to worry about it yet.  


MAVS TEAM ASSESSMENT 

The Mavs are still in the “figuring it out” phase. They don’t have an identity yet, and it’s been hard to develop one when their two best players have had absences.

MF. It's too early to be this pessimistic. Kidd says they’re looking to make an assessment around Christmas. 

BD. Yeah, right. First it’s 15 games, then 20, now it’s Christmas, maybe it’ll be the ASB next time. 


[Well, looks like there’s plenty of reaction here for both homers and naysayers. We shall see.]


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#2
Thanks for recap, I completely agree with the roster assessment. However, one decent move could solve that. Mavs are getting to a phase where adequate assets will be available. Just freaking convince someone he wants to go to Dallas...


(11-23-2021, 01:15 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: Mark doesn’t agree with any of that


Why are you addressing yourself in the third person? Smile
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#3
(11-23-2021, 01:15 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: HIghly doubt that he will get traded this season, even if the team thinks the tea leaves point toward his leaving. 
So we can't trade him because he is so valuable to the team now, but we can let him walk for nothing this summer.  I really hope this is not the plan.
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#4
(11-23-2021, 01:52 PM)Hypermav Wrote: So we can't trade him because he is so valuable to the team now, but we can let him walk for nothing this summer.  I really hope this is not the plan.


This and the KP part are quite off imho from Mavs perspective, if it is in fact really what they think. No matter how good KP plays, I don't believe there will be any team thinking KP is the man to build around. I think he is at best more that "ok there is no star available but we really need to do something to make that final push" guy. Sort of like Hayward, Tobias Harris, John Collins,... Good to have as second or third guy, even if overpaid. If KP really thinks he is the guy, teams will be reluctant to trade for him and the bag of problems he brings with this kind of attitude.

Of course it is possible this is just bluff and the real intension is to showcase both for a TDL trade. Or Mavs have a very solid info they can reach an agreement with JB in the summer.
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#5
(11-23-2021, 01:52 PM)Hypermav Wrote: So we can't trade him because he is so valuable to the team now, but we can let him walk for nothing this summer.  I really hope this is not the plan.

I think the idea is more that they don't want to trade him because they don't think they can get much of anything for him. And by the end of the season, maybe he becomes more enthusiastic about staying. Or other teams don't offer him anything he wants. Or maybe they can work out some kind of sign-and-trade. 

We may or may not agree with the assessment. But I don't find it hard to believe that this is the plan.
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#6
(11-23-2021, 01:15 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: Porzingis 

He has shown very exciting progress, but . . . . We understand that he wants to be an offensive focus and play in the post.


KP is 0.91 PPP for post-ups (49.2 percentile) on 4.0 possessions/game (5th in the NBA) while shooting 42.9%. Last year he was 0.98 PPP (58.8 percentile) on 3.7 possessions/game while shooting 49.2%.  

KP has been average in the post this year. A notch down from last year. I still like KP getting some looks there, but the deeper he catches it the better IMO. KP also continues to be good in the pick and roll (66.3 percentile) and cutting (77.8 percentile). I would like to see more of both of those.



Luka has been abysmal on the other hand. I get why he is getting more touches there (he was REALLY good last year), but that form has not held this year. Luka is 0.78 PPP (24.2 percentile) on 3.5 possessions/game while shooting 38.2%. Last year he was 1.09 PPP (83.8 percentile) on 1.8 possessions/game while shooting 55.8%. 

Luka has been solid (but not elite) in the pick and roll (64.2 percentile) while JB has been elite (96.0 percentile).
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#7
Really like the writeups.  Thank you.  Some interesting thoughts too.

While Dragic not getting any playing time is concerning, I do still wish he winds out here via buyout.   I would start Luka and Jalen and move Hardaway to the super 6th man.    With Dragic, I would have two ball handlers on the court for most times.   In the meantime, we should get a good look at Frank to see how he does though.

I would then look for a big man to pair with KP.   For me, I would always want the better player.  But I don't think the Mavs can make that move at this point.   A guy like Bobby Portis would be perfect imo.  He is not available now, but a player like him is typically available every offseason.  A guy who provides toughness, is pretty skilled and could potentially score 25 if KP was out.   But we may need to compromise some for a guy in the TPE range, which is fine.   I would even take a guy with multiple years on his contract if I thought he could be used as a trade filler in a year or so.
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#8
(11-23-2021, 03:12 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: While Dragic not getting any playing time is concerning, I do still wish he winds out here via buyout.   I would start Luka and Jalen and move Hardaway to the super 6th man.    With Dragic, I would have two ball handlers on the court for most times.   In the meantime, we should get a good look at Frank to see how he does though.
I thought this might happen, but now he's hurt. Did we get an update on him from practice today? Calf injuries typically have a fairly lengthy recovery time, but maybe his won't be that bad.
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#9
(11-23-2021, 01:43 PM)omahen Wrote: Thanks for recap, I completely agree with the roster assessment. However, one decent move could solve that. Mavs are getting to a phase where adequate assets will be available. Just freaking convince someone he wants to go to Dallas...




Why are you addressing yourself in the third person? Smile

Some men ask why. I ask, why not?
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#10
(11-23-2021, 03:01 PM)Kammrath Wrote: KP has been average in the post this year. A notch down from last year. I still like KP getting some looks there, but the deeper he catches it the better IMO. KP also continues to be good in the pick and roll (66.3 percentile) and cutting (77.8 percentile). I would like to see more of both of those.

This is astute.  I agree with it completely.  If he catches the ball deep in the post, turns around, and shoots...KP is ok.  Catch the ball high post and try to back them down...then we get to see the weak, awkward Ichabod Crane style of basketball.  IC...I mean KP...sort of drops the ball like it's the head of a certain headless horseman when trying to back anyone down.  

KP's body style has some advantages and some disadvantages.  He should play to his strengths.  I guess it's up to coaches to show him how that is better...and convince him to do so.
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#11
(11-23-2021, 03:55 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: Some men ask why. I ask, why not?

RFK quote?
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