MAVS 98, SUNS 105

[chaparral]

I like Theis for that role, especially because he would be a reasonable starting center when KP is out (we don't really have a good option right now).  I would love a WCS/Green for Theis trade.  Then you have an extra roster spot to grab a bought out Dragic to shore up our desperately needed backup PG spot.

Not sure HOU would do that trade, but I do like the idea of adding Theis.  So, what about Gordon and Theis for Powell, Bullock and Green?

[michaeltex]

this is a scrappy, hard-playing group that is pretty entertaining to watch, but at this point, is too short on talent

I think this is a truth. Especially as long as S. Brown and Bullock continue to under perform.

Offseason acquisition of under performing wings seems to be an annual thing.

[mavsluvr]

I think this is a truth. Especially as long as S. Brown and Bullock continue to under perform.

Offseason acquisition of under performing wings seems to be an annual thing.

There does seem to be a pattern. 

iztok posted some analysis of how the Suns were successfully targeting KP defensively at the end of the game. He didn't put the Mavs' defensive collapse entirely on KP, though, observing that ideally, the Mavs would have had better wing defense.

[Jommybone]

Mavs are getting huge help from Frankie Smokes and pretty close to nothing from any of the other new guys. What that tells me is that only luck, not smarts, kept our offseason from unmitigated-disaster status. It may be too early to give up on Sterling and Reggie. But I’m close to writing them both off. At least Burke has good games once in awhile.

On the other hand, everybody else seems to be significantly better on the defensive end than they were last year. Most importantly, that includes KP. He looks good again. Did he deserve an A- or a B? Debatable. But he was nowhere near F status, unlike most of last year. And even without his most beneficial front-court running mate, Maxi, whose back will eventually let him get back. 

Now, can we just get one more wing to find some offense? Reggie, Sterling, Josh, any one of ya would do.

[KillerLeft]

Mavs are getting huge help from Frankie Smokes and pretty close to nothing from any of the other new guys.

This is undeniable, BUT...

I, personally, have a sense in the back of my mind that Bullock and Brown will both improve as they get more comfortable. 

AND, not meaning to be a party-pooper, I can't help but wonder if the French Prince's shooting and offensive feel are just a temporary hot streak, like "Bubble Burke" was. I hope I'm wrong, because I LOVE what he's giving the team. He's probably the single-best defender on the roster (and that's starting to mean something). But, I mean...last night he hit a crossover, pull-up three from the top of the break. Brunson wasn't even attempting that shot until this season, for comparison. 

He looks GOOD on offense to me, not just passable enough to be playable for defensive purposes. Is that real? Is it sustainable? I'm not sure, but I hope so. What's really baking my noodle is if it IS real, why on Earth was he not playing in NY?

[IamDougieFresh]

@"mavsluvr"

For some reason it won't let me quote your text. Now that I'm thinking about it more, Kidd had no good option. KP is too injury prone to play the whole 4th and Maxi is out. I fear Boban, while possibly slowing Ayton, would have caused even more holes in the perimeter defense. Moses could be a solution, but we don't know what he can do yet. WCS and Powell... no explanation needed.

For your other point... the first thing is by "be great" I am referring to getting out of the first round and being competitive in the second. If you look at our roster, we have the tools to accomplish this.

1. Luka - All time great player already.
2. KP - I'm hopeful after this stretch of games that Luka and KP will continue to grow their chemistry, work out the kinks, and produce highly efficient offense.
3. JB - Much improved secondary creator.
4. THJ - Needed scorer.
5. Maxi - Most underrated defensive player in the league for years now.
6. Dragic - Not on the team yet, but will be huge by allowing us to usually have 2 creators on the court. Should be fresh by the time he gets here.
7. Frank - Great defender. Can dribble, shoot, pass. Amazing pickup.
8. DFS - Back to looking solid after his terrible start to the year.
9. Bullock - Still hopeful he can remember how to shoot and settle into a solid role.
10-12. Moses/Boban/Dwight - Some combination of these 3 will have to get some minutes. We need to see Moses in action quickly to see if we have anything. Dwight should be fine to change things up in LIMITED minutes. Boban can be a problem situationally.

This is your bread and butter and I think they can win a playoff series for sure.

13. Trey Burke - Nice 13th man who can actually come in and help if some of our other guards go down.
14. Sterling Brown - Only on the team for agency BS reasons it seems. Fortunately, we don't need him because of Frank's emergence. Still hoping he shows something.
15. Josh Green - I'm already convinced he sucks and don't see a reason he should get minutes over anyone besides Sterling Brown.
16. WCS - Get him out of here.

As far as Kidd's coaching goes... I'm still giving him some more time to implement his system (if he has one) , get everything running smoothly, and of course getting Dwight out of the stating lineup.

[ItsGoTime]

This is undeniable, BUT...

I, personally, have a sense in the back of my mind that Bullock and Brown will both improve as they get more comfortable. 

AND, not meaning to be a party-pooper, I can't help but wonder if the French Prince's shooting and offensive feel are just a temporary hot streak, like "Bubble Burke" was. I hope I'm wrong, because I LOVE what he's giving the team. He's probably the single-best defender on the roster (and that's starting to mean something). But, I mean...last night he hit a crossover, pull-up three from the top of the break. Brunson wasn't even attempting that shot until this season, for comparison. 

He looks GOOD on offense to me, not just passable enough to be playable for defensive purposes. Is that real? Is it sustainable? I'm not sure, but I hope so. What's really baking my noodle is if it IS real, why on Earth was he not playing in NY?

I am so in lock-step with all these thoughts.

[Hypermav]

10-12. Moses/Boban/Dwight - Some combination of these 3 will have to get some minutes. We need to see Moses in action quickly to see if we have anything. Dwight should be fine to change things up in LIMITED minutes. Boban can be a problem situationally.

Aww, you said something nice about KaPowell

[IamDougieFresh]

Aww, you said something nice about KaPowell

Truth be told, I used to like him when his contract was only 6 figures and his role was proportionate to his skill.

[sefant]

5. Maxi - Most underrated defensive player in the league for years now.

Its like people forgot how good he was last year in the regular season. Those were the Luka two man net ratings of last year from the starters:



Luka/Kleber +6.8

Luka/DFS +3.7

Luka/THJ +3.6

Luka/KP +0.5

Luka/JRich +0.3

---

KP / Powell -10

KP/ Kleber +8.1



And those the KP combos.

[IamDougieFresh]

Its like people forgot how good he was last year in the regular season. Those were the Luka two man net ratings of last year from the starters:



Luka/Kleber +6.8

Luka/DFS +3.7

Luka/THJ +3.6

Luka/KP +0.5

Luka/JRich +0.3

---

KP / Powell -10

KP/ Kleber +8.1



And those the KP combos.

I did not forget friend

[mavsluvr]

For your other point... the first thing is by "be great" I am referring to getting out of the first round and being competitive in the second. If you look at our roster, we have the tools to accomplish this.

Thanks for clarifying what you mean by "be great." That is helpful. 


I agree that getting out of the first round and being competitive in the second would be a realistic goal for the team to aim for. 

Also agree that we have some interesting tools in the box, as you describe. They could make it, with some luck, although I don't have a level of confidence about it yet. To get to the second round, they would have to be one of the last four WC teams standing, and I don't necessarily foresee that they are going to end the season being clearly better than twelve of the other teams. But it's a long season, and you never know. In any event, as you point out, it's within the realm of realism. 

As far as Kidd's coaching goes... I'm still giving him some more time to implement his system (if he has one) , get everything running smoothly, and of course getting Dwight out of the stating lineup.

Since you also bring up getting Dwight Powell out of the starting lineup, but still using him in limited minutes, I want to ask you something. As it is, he does not play starter minutes, and is often not on the floor at the end of the game. So the question is, if he plays limited minutes, and doesn't close, why does it matter whether he starts or not? Is it because you think the starting unit should set a tone, and with Dwight on the floor, that's not possible? Or you think they should start with only one big, as their best offensive lineup? Or something else?

[KillerLeft]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much, and that I think is significant (though not sure exactly how, yet) is this:

I thought the refs really let both teams play last night, even by the standards set early this season. The results were surprising, imo, in that I thought this increased level of allowed physical play benefitted the Mavericks, not the other team. 

Not sure whether this is something I'm prepared to make sense of yet, but it has been a WHILE since I thought the Mavs  played more physically than a good team during a head-to-head matchup in such a way that influenced the flow of the game.

[mvossman]

Since you also bring up getting Dwight Powell out of the starting lineup, but still using him in limited minutes, I want to ask you something. As it is, he does not play starter minutes, and is often not on the floor at the end of the game. So the question is, if he plays limited minutes, and doesn't close, why does it matter whether he starts or not? Is it because you think the starting unit should set a tone, and with Dwight on the floor, that's not possible? Or you think they should start with only one big, as their best offensive lineup? Or something else?

I am not DougieFresh, but my thoughts are that Powell seems to stunt KP offense when they are on the floor together and WCS has been completely useless.  Powell makes the most sense as the primary backup center getting roughly the 16 minutes KP is not on the court.  When Maxi is back, he and DFS can split the 4 minutes.  Hopefully this is how it plays out eventually.

This last offseason we needed to upgrade starter talent, get a secondary ball handler, and based on this strategy of "protecting KP" upgrade the big depth.  Its kind of crazy that we failed to do any of that.  I would much rather have Caruso or Theis (who both got the MLE) than Bullock on this team, and with some squeezing under the cap might have been able to get both.

[mavsluvr]

I am not DougieFresh, but my thoughts are that Powell seems to stunt KP offense when they are on the floor together and WCS has been completely useless.  Powell makes the most sense as the primary backup center getting roughly the 16 minutes KP is not on the court.  When Maxi is back, he and DFS can split the 4 minutes.  Hopefully this is how it plays out eventually.

This last offseason we needed to upgrade starter talent, get a secondary ball handler, and based on this strategy of "protecting KP" upgrade the big depth.  Its kind of crazy that we failed to do any of that.  I would much rather have Caruso or Theis (who both got the MLE) than Bullock on this team, and with some squeezing under the cap might have been able to get both.

No problem, these are all open discussions. It seems that your strategy is a little different than Dougie's. He doesn't want Powell to start. It seems that you feel that Powell and KP should never be on the floor together. 

That could be right. To explore it a bit -- 

Agree that KP and Powell have had some awful displays of poor execution together in this early part of the season. Most of that, however, seems to have consisted of one or the other, or both, not knowing where they are supposed to be, to the point of such clownish occurrences as KP trying to post up and DP rolling to the basket at the same time, or KP and DP running into each other. But I assume that those wrinkles will be ironed out in time, and I believe that combo has had good results in the past. 

Kidd is trying to balance a number of particular things. KP does not have a history of holding up well over the course of a season, and Kidd is trying to hold both his total minutes and his expenditure of energy on the court to moderate levels. Hence, his using a two-big lineup to start the game. Maxi also has a history of not responding well to big minutes (which may be part of the reason that he began the season as a backup). 

Luka really likes playing with Powell, because it enables him to utilize his PNR excellence to advantage. So, there's that. 

Balancing all these goals doesn't seem to me to be all that straightforward. Let's say, trying to keep KP's minutes in the low 30's and having him play center maybe no more than 2/3 of his time on the court. Limit Maxi to 30 mpg or so. Keep Powell on the floor for Luka for maybe at least 20 minutes or so. Don't let KP and Powell take the floor together?

This is all before we even get to particular matchups. I guess my point is that I'm not sure there really is a simple fix to these problems. Having all these centers does enable the team to play different styles. But some of them are pretty limited in what they can do, and KP and/or Maxi may be liable to miss a few stretches. I guess this all leads me to wonder if most of the solutions at these two positions may be more makeshift than not with the current configuration of players. But if shuffling the deck would substantially help the situation without upsetting too many apple carts, it's worth a try.

[mvossman]

No problem, these are all open discussions. It seems that your strategy is a little different than Dougie's. He doesn't want Powell to start. It seems that you feel that Powell and KP should never be on the floor together. 

That could be right. To explore it a bit -- 

Agree that KP and Powell have had some awful displays of poor execution together in this early part of the season. Most of that, however, seems to have consisted of one or the other, or both, not knowing where they are supposed to be, to the point of such clownish occurrences as KP trying to post up and DP rolling to the basket at the same time, or KP and DP running into each other. But I assume that those wrinkles will be ironed out in time, and I believe that combo has had good results in the past. 

Kidd is trying to balance a number of particular things. KP does not have a history of holding up well over the course of a season, and Kidd is trying to hold both his total minutes and his expenditure of energy on the court to moderate levels. Hence, his using a two-big lineup to start the game. Maxi also has a history of not responding well to big minutes (which may be part of the reason that he began the season as a backup). 

Luka really likes playing with Powell, because it enables him to utilize his PNR excellence to advantage. So, there's that. 

Balancing all these goals doesn't seem to me to be all that straightforward. Let's say, trying to keep KP's minutes in the low 30's and having him play center maybe no more than 2/3 of his time on the court. Limit Maxi to 30 mpg or so. Keep Powell on the floor for Luka for maybe at least 20 minutes or so. Don't let KP and Powell take the floor together?

This is all before we even get to particular matchups. I guess my point is that I'm not sure there really is a simple fix to these problems. Having all these centers does enable the team to play different styles. But some of them are pretty limited in what they can do, and KP and/or Maxi may be liable to miss a few stretches. I guess this all leads me to wonder if most of the solutions at these two positions may be more makeshift than not with the current configuration of players. But if shuffling the deck would substantially help the situation without upsetting too many apple carts, it's worth a try.

Some thoughts:

My guess is that Fresh does not want Powell to start because he is not one of the top 7 players on the team.  There needs to be a really good reason to start your 8th (or possibly even 9th if Frank keeps this up) best player, and when Maxi gets back there really won't be one.

The KP/Powell combo worked really well two years ago, but that is when KP was a floor stretcher and nothing else.  It was a one trick pony with Luka running constant P&R with Powell and three shooters waiting for a pass.  It was very effective in the regular season before the achillis, but I'm not sure that would have help up well during the playoffs.  Bubble KP and what we are seeing now has a lot more chance of succeeding in the playoffs.

I have heard a lot of talk about Luka wanting or being more effective with a P&R partner, but the starting lineup last year (when healthy) of KP/Maxi/DFS/Luka/JRich had a 124 offensive rating.  That was even better than the previous year starting lineup with KP/Powell.  Luka has been just as successful (even more so) with a 5 out offense.  Besides, this year KP has run more P&R with Luka, and there will still be minutes when KP is off the floor and Luka can P&R with Powell.

As for protecting KP with another big, I would argue that Maxi is at least as good at that as Powell.  He can get run over by bigger centers, but not any more than Powell.  I don't think I want to run Maxi out there even 30 minutes a game as he tends to wear down, but he can spend some, most or all of his minutes with KP depending on matchup.  If you are staggering Luka/KP then your playing Powell/DFS/Luka when KP is off the court, and KP/Maxi/Brunson when Luka is off the court.  Depending on matchup, you can swap Maxi/DFS as much as you want.  I think the minutes work out just fine as long as everyone is healthy.  Otherwise you have to overextend Powell or worse play WCS.  Honestly, until Maxi gets back I would not mind seeing more of the small ball lineup with DFS at center.

[IamDougieFresh]

I want Dwight out of the starting lineup because I believe it will fix the slow start issue (also he sucks). I think you guys gave good reasons why in the posts above. In my ideal world Dwight is not on the team, but if he has to be, give him like 12 minutes as a changeup guy off the bench.

[LukTheShadow]

More on less all was said abort this game. As this game was lost in crunchtime with total meltdown on the both court sides I found out KP's after-game interview quite interesting in part where he spoke about "missing" or "looking for" LD on the court. If that was said sincere and not only some PR for LD, I hope JK will rest and sit luka for a game or two more. And heal well his injury as well. 
AS this guys are playing with Luka for years now and if they get used to pass game brain to Luka so strong, they should work on this mental issue in real games.

For those who didn't watch KP's aftergamer:

https://youtu.be/pqcxKdbfy_Y?t=151

To add another speculation, RC's leftovers?

Thanks ML for my regular first after games morning readings.

[fifteenth]

More on less all was said abort this game.

This sentence. It's awesome. I'm going to meditate on it for a while. Mistypings are fun.