BRUNSON BURNER: to NYK for 4yrs/$104M (no SnT) | NYK docked 2025 2nd for tampering

[Dahlsim]

Value is a hard one for me to wrap my head around these days for sure.  I think we need to keep in mind that we are a bottom tier destination city/organization and we will always need to overpay.  Jalen at north of 25m might not be a highly attractive trade piece but I also don't think it makes him a negative asset either.

Been busy so have only been able to peek in and out on the Brunson story but from what I have seen and from his direct interview, didn't it come down to the Mav's missing a window when they could have extended him Dallas for much less money but then after that the ship was sailed? 

From what I hear Jalen say, he had a window there where he planned to make his career long term in Dallas and even discussed accepting an extension if they Mavs offered it.  The Mavs didn't offer in that window, Brunson's play continued to blow up, enter the NY Knicks and it was all over that point. 

For those that have followed it more closely, do I have this summarized pretty accurately?

[michaeltex]

Been busy so have only been able to peek in and out on the Brunson story but from what I have seen and from his direct interview, didn't it come down to the Mav's missing a window when they could have extended him Dallas for much less money but then after that the ship was sailed? 

From what I hear Jalen say, he had a window there where he planned to make his career long term in Dallas and even discussed accepting an extension if they Mavs offered it.  The Mavs didn't offer in that window, Brunson's play continued to blow up, enter the NY Knicks and it was all over that point. 

For those that have followed it more closely, do I have this summarized pretty accurately?

The only exception I would make is that JB's "blowing up" was a couple of playoff games against a sub-par defense Jazz team. When Luka returned, JB went back to his season averages, which were indeed improvements over previous years. 

IMO, the playoffs cemented in JB's mind that he would never be able to shine while playing with/behind Luka, so it was time to move on and find a different situation if he wanted a chance to really get paid and get recognized.

Wonder how he feels now with all the talk of bringing Mitchell in as a star guard. Or analyst comments that, if he is the main summer signing, then NYKs haven't really done much to improve.

[ItsGoTime]

Been busy so have only been able to peek in and out on the Brunson story but from what I have seen and from his direct interview, didn't it come down to the Mav's missing a window when they could have extended him Dallas for much less money but then after that the ship was sailed? 

From what I hear Jalen say, he had a window there where he planned to make his career long term in Dallas and even discussed accepting an extension if they Mavs offered it.  The Mavs didn't offer in that window, Brunson's play continued to blow up, enter the NY Knicks and it was all over that point. 

For those that have followed it more closely, do I have this summarized pretty accurately?

I think that is pretty accurate to what I’ve read. I think the “window” timing is not solidified, but I’m pretty sure there was a window of opportunity to get the extension done. Rumor has it that Dal didn’t offer cause they were trying to package him in a deal, pretty much all season, including trying to get a SnT with NYK done in the end.

[Kammrath]

From what I hear Jalen say, he had a window there where he planned to make his career long term in Dallas and even discussed accepting an extension if they Mavs offered it.  The Mavs didn't offer in that window, Brunson's play continued to blow up, enter the NY Knicks and it was all over that point. 

For those that have followed it more closely, do I have this summarized pretty accurately?

I don't think anyone but JB could give us the truly accurate version.


My take on what I have seen, trying to parse through the agendas and misinformation:

1) JB wanted to be in DAL long term last summer (2021) and would have signed an extension at that time (4yrs/$55M). DAL chose not to offer the extension last summer, possibly in part due to JB's poor playoff performance and lowered minutes in the playoffs of 2021. 

2) As the season unfolded, JB seems to have still wanted to be in DAL. But as we get closer to the TDL that becomes a more open question. The Mavs do not offer an extension early in the season and we do NOT know whether JB would have signed one once his play started to explode under Kidd (he seems to have clearly outplayed a 4yrs/$55M contract at that point). 

3) As the TDL approaches the Mavs decide to explore trading JB, being confident they can get a deal they like (and this confidence likely goes back to summer 2021). But other teams get the sense that JB will walk to NYK if DAL trades him away, so no one outside of NYK is truly interested. Then as the TDL arrives NYK backs out of any trade talks with DAL, thinking they have a shot to sign him outright if they can clear the capspace (and maybe NYK knew something definitive at this point, hard to say). So DAL is left at the TDL with JB not being traded and now possibly disgruntled. 

4) As the season ends, JB's camp continues to say (including Rick Brunson...but I should note I do not trust a word he says) that JB wants to be in DAL. 

5) Luka is hurt to start the playoffs and JB has the best games of his life, leading DAL to a 2-1 lead over UTA. Everything changes here IMO. Rick Brunson runs to the media and openly begins to start spinning his narrative that DAL has mistreated JB. At this same time Rick is being hired in the background by NYK as an assistant coach. Then as the draft approaches NYK begins to shed the salary they need to make JB an offer. 

6) A few days before FA opens, word leaks that JB is gone. Then word leaks he will meet with DAL and MIA. Those meetings never happen and the rumor of those meetings seems to be in an effort to deflect any obvious tampering. Cuban claims that he never had a chance to offer. But Skin and others say Cuban would not pay more than $20-22M per year and that was his hard limit that was known by JB and his agent. NYK goes much higher than that to $26+M per year.

7) After it leaks that JB is leaving, word comes out that the Mavs have been aware that JB was leaving for "weeks," if not months. And that when they tried to trade him at the TDL they in part tried that because they knew he might walk. But if he walked, they were still confident NYK would do a sign and trade with them. But DET it turned out was willing to use up their capspace to absorb NYK's unwanted salaries. DAL did not foresee this and got left holding nothing after JB walked. 

It seems pretty clear to me that at some point after the TDL, the Mavs decided on a number they were willing to pay JB and that they would not exceed it. They figured he would either accept that number or they would sign and trade him to NYK. I think the BIG thing that DAL thought would never happen was DET willingly using all their capspace and losing out on FAs to take on NYK's unwanted salaries. That was the big miscalculation and mistake in all of this IMO. The whole plan for DAL fell apart when DET did something unexpected and what I bet the Mavs thought was unwise. I think DAL put themselves in the shoes of DET and said they would never take on NYK's salaries. They were wrong and they are paying for it now.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think anyone but JB could give us the truly accurate version.


My take on what I have seen, trying to parse through the agendas and misinformation:

1) JB wanted to be in DAL long term last summer (2021) and would have signed an extension at that time (4yrs/$55M). DAL chose not to offer the extension last summer, possibly in part due to JB's poor playoff performance and lowered minutes in the playoffs of 2021. 

2) As the season unfolded, JB seems to have still wanted to be in DAL. But as we get closer to the TDL that becomes a more open question. The Mavs do not offer an extension early in the season and we do NOT know whether JB would have signed one once his play started to explode under Kidd (he seems to have clearly outplayed a 4yrs/$55M contract at that point). 

3) As the TDL approaches the Mavs decide to explore trading JB, being confident they can get a deal they like (and this confidence likely goes back to summer 2021). But other teams get the sense that JB will walk to NYK if DAL trades him away, so no one outside of NYK is truly interested. Then as the TDL arrives NYK backs out of any trade talks with DAL, thinking they have a shot to sign him outright if they can clear the capspace (and maybe NYK knew something definitive at this point, hard to say). So DAL is left at the TDL with JB not being traded and now possibly disgruntled. 

4) As the season ends, JB's camp continues to say (including Rick Brunson...but I should note I do not trust a word he says) that JB wants to be in DAL. 

5) Luka is hurt to start the playoffs and JB has the best games of his life, leading DAL to a 2-1 lead over UTA. Everything changes here IMO. Rick Brunson runs to the media and openly begins to start spinning his narrative that DAL has mistreated JB. At this same time Rick is being hired in the background by NYK as an assistant coach. Then as the draft approaches NYK begins to shed the salary they need to make JB an offer. 

6) A few days before FA opens, word leaks that JB is gone. Then word leaks he will meet with DAL and MIA. Those meetings never happen and the rumor of those meetings seems to be in an effort to deflect any obvious tampering. Cuban claims that he never had a chance to offer. But Skin and others say Cuban would not pay more than $20-22M per year and that was his hard limit that was known by JB and his agent. NYK goes much higher than that to $26+M per year.

7) After it leaks that JB is leaving, word comes out that the Mavs have been aware that JB was leaving for "weeks," if not months. And that when they tried to trade him at the TDL they in part tried that because they knew he might walk. But if he walked, they were still confident NYK would do a sign and trade with them. But DET it turned out was willing to use up their capspace to absorb NYK's unwanted salaries. DAL did not foresee this and got left holding nothing after JB walked. 

It seems pretty clear to me that at some point after the TDL, the Mavs decided on a number they were willing to pay JB and that they would not exceed it. They figured he would either accept that number or they would sign and trade him to NYK. I think the BIG thing that DAL thought would never happen was DET willingly using all their capspace and losing out on FAs to take on NYK's unwanted salaries. That was the big miscalculation and mistake in all of this IMO. The whole plan for DAL fell apart when DET did something unexpected and what I bet the Mavs thought was unwise. I think DAL put themselves in the shoes of DET and said they would never take on NYK's salaries. They were wrong and they are paying for it now.

I think this is all fair.  The Detroit miscalculation is certainly an area of potential criticism.  The other thing I’d add is as early as December, I found reports that Jalen’s number was $80mm over 4 years.  If that was already the number in December, was there ever really a chance he would take $55mm once that was out there. 

I just don’t see it.  I do see an (the potential for an ) emotional response to not even being asked and an even more emotional response to (being shopped as) the reason why.  But, (to me it) was not likely to take the $55mm at any point past the summer of 21.  (Now I do see not offering last summer as) another potential area of criticism.  Even as a really good backup (which is what he was at the time), $13.7mm as an average doesn’t seem unreasonable.  But, as you say, none of us have any idea whether JB would have accepted even that (summer) offer.

[ItsGoTime]

I think this is all fair.  The Detroit miscalculation is certainly an area of potential criticism.  The other thing I’d add is as early as December, I found reports that Jalen’s number was $80mm over 4 years.  If that was already the number in December, was there ever really a chance he would take $55mm once that was out there. 

I just don’t see it.  I do see an emotional response to not even being asked and an even more emotional response to the reason why being the team was looking to move me.  But, if he was not likely to take the $55mm at any point past the summer of 21, then whether or not that should have been offered is another potential area of criticism.  Even as a really good backup (which is what he was at the time) $13.7mm as an average doesn’t seem unreasonable.  But, as you say, none of us have any idea whether JB would have accepted even that offer.

We’ll never really know because it was never offered, rumor has it.

[Kammrath]

I think this is all fair.  The Detroit miscalculation is certainly an area of potential criticism.  The other thing I’d add is as early as December, I found reports that Jalen’s number was $80mm over 4 years.  If that was already the number in December, was there ever really a chance he would take $55mm once that was out there. 

I just don’t see it.  I do see an (the potential for an ) emotional response to not even being asked and an even more emotional response to (being shopped as) the reason why.  But, (to me it) was not likely to take the $55mm at any point past the summer of 21.  (Now I do see not offering last summer as) another potential area of criticism.  Even as a really good backup (which is what he was at the time), $13.7mm as an average doesn’t seem unreasonable.  But, as you say, none of us have any idea whether JB would have accepted even that (summer) offer.

I personally do NOT fault the Mavs for thinking DET would not take on NYK's salaries. I would have thought the same thing 100 times out of 100 if asked beforehand. I was SHOCKED at every deal DET was willing to do with NYK. 

I also 100% agree with you that any supposed "we would have signed the extension in January" is total narrative BS from Rick Brunson. Numbers like you say were WAY higher at that point in the media.

[mvossman]

I think this is all fair.  The Detroit miscalculation is certainly an area of potential criticism.  The other thing I’d add is as early as December, I found reports that Jalen’s number was $80mm over 4 years.  If that was already the number in December, was there ever really a chance he would take $55mm once that was out there. 

I just don’t see it.  I do see an (the potential for an ) emotional response to not even being asked and an even more emotional response to (being shopped as) the reason why.  But, (to me it) was not likely to take the $55mm at any point past the summer of 21.  (Now I do see not offering last summer as) another potential area of criticism.  Even as a really good backup (which is what he was at the time), $13.7mm as an average doesn’t seem unreasonable.  But, as you say, none of us have any idea whether JB would have accepted even that (summer) offer.

There was also speculation that he would not have taken the max extension last summer.  The thought being that he wanted to go to a team where he could run the offense instead of being stuck behind Luka.  You can also make the argument that 14 mil a year is steep for an undersized backup shooting guard that withered in the playoffs (which was the thought of many on this board at the time)

[DanSchwartzgan]

I personally do NOT fault the Mavs for thinking DET would not take on NYK's salaries. I would have thought the same thing 100 times out of 100 if asked beforehand. I was SHOCKED at every deal DET was willing to do with NYK. 

I also 100% agree with you that any supposed "we would have signed the extension in January" is total narrative BS from Rick Brunson. Numbers like you say were WAY higher at that point in the media.

And, once you get past the TDL, none of what DET/NY does is within the Mav’s control anyway.

If you don’t sign the extension in the summer (and I agree with Mvossman, there were valid reasons in real time to not do so), signing an extension afterwards wasn’t a real option once the $80mm number was out there.  All that is left after Dec/Jan is a trade and if you don’t do that by the TDL, then you are depending on the kindness of others who don’t have your best interest in mind.  

It was surprising that Detroit did what it did.  I wouldn’t mind Burks, Walker and a little draft capital right about now.  But, we were competitors with NY and may have competed hard for all we know.  So, it would have been bad business for them to let the opportunities they had in June pass them by and count on us to play along with their plan.

I also think equal money from Dallas doesn’t get it done (and there are valid reasons to believe $26mm per was already too much for the FO to bid).  People are mad and I get that.  “Someone should have done something” is a common refrain when bad things happen.  If I’m going to pick something to criticize, it is that they didn’t get value at the TDL.  But, you can’t make people trade with you (especially for a UFA).  And if we had traded JB then, we might not have had the joy of three rounds of playoffs.

[cow]

I also think equal money from Dallas doesn’t get it done (and there are valid reasons to believe $26mm per was already too much for the FO to bid).  People are mad and I get that.  “Someone should have done something” is a common refrain when bad things happen.  If I’m going to pick something to criticize, it is that they didn’t get value at the TDL.  But, you can’t make people trade with you (especially for a UFA).  And if we had traded JB then, we might not have had the joy of three rounds of playoffs.

It's not about "someone should have done something", it's the fact that a competent front office wouldn't have put themselves in position to get no value from Jalen.  I'm fine with the MBT not wanting to invest big money into Jalen, I'm fully on board with that sentiment about him as a player but you also have to consider the market you are in and the competency of your front office.  Look at what the Spurs did with Murray.   They either realized that he wasn't the player they wanted in their core group or didn't fit the timing of their rebuild so they extracted value.  You can argue that there is value in the playoff run that Mavs had and that without Jalen, they wouldn't have enjoyed that success but I'd counter with that being shortsighted.  I'm not pinning this on Nico either as most of the damage was already done but the primary reason we hired him has yet to bear fruit.  

I say that with no anger.  I'd be angry if I expected anything different but I'm resigned to having a sub par owner and front office that doesn't maximize the potential of a generational player.  I do think it is rather foolish to believe Luka is going to have the same loyalty as Dirk.  Being a Euro might buy you some time, but not all of his time.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It's not about "someone should have done something", it's the fact that a competent front office wouldn't have put themselves in position to get no value from Jalen.  I'm fine with the MBT not wanting to invest big money into Jalen, I'm fully on board with that sentiment about him as a player but you also have to consider the market you are in and the competency of your front office.  Look at what the Spurs did with Murray.   They either realized that he wasn't the player they wanted in their core group or didn't fit the timing of their rebuild so they extracted value.  You can argue that there is value in the playoff run that Mavs had and that without Jalen, they wouldn't have enjoyed that success but I'd counter with that being shortsighted.  I'm not pinning this on Nico either as most of the damage was already done but the primary reason we hired him has yet to bear fruit.  

I say that with no anger.  I'd be angry if I expected anything different but I'm resigned to having a sub par owner and front office that doesn't maximize the potential of a generational player.  I do think it is rather foolish to believe Luka is going to have the same loyalty as Dirk.  Being a Euro might buy you some time, but not all of his time.

I’m not sure the Murray comparison applies.  What Brunson was last summer and what he is now is viewed pretty differently.  Murray has been the same good player for a while now.  San Antonio dealt him two years prior to his becoming a FA.  Nico didn’t have that luxury with Brunson (and wouldn’t have gotten a thing for him two years ago if he did).

I do agree Donnie didn’t deal Nico the greatest hand on this one.  I do think Nico has done some good things.  I get tired of the ‘smartest guy in the room’ crap and always swinging for the fences.  Nico seems more willing to hit singles and doubles when appropriate.  Hopefully the cupboard is being restocked for a home run swing later.

Who knows if Nico should get credit for Bullock, but that was a nice single.  Wood might be a double, especially for what we gave up.  McGee isn’t ideal, but he is an improvement in rim protection and rebounding at a position we are apparently going to continue to use.  So, another single.  Hardy may be a single or a double also.  Most everyone wanted us to trade back into the draft and we did.  I was watching some Collin Sexton highlights the other day and thought all those mid-range pull-ups looked a lot like something Hardy seems to do well.  IF Hardy just gets rotation minutes, he is another single.  If he can score anything like Sexton (with less tunnel vision and greater efficiency) it may be even better than a double.

[Hooper21]

I’m not sure the Murray comparison applies.  What Brunson was last summer and what he is now is viewed pretty differently.  Murray has been the same good player for a while now.  San Antonio dealt him two years prior to his becoming a FA.  Nico didn’t have that luxury with Brunson (and wouldn’t have gotten a thing for him two years ago if he did).

I do agree Donnie didn’t deal Nico the greatest hand on this one.  I do think Nico has done some good things.  I get tired of the ‘smartest guy in the room’ crap and always swinging for the fences.  Nico seems more willing to hit singles and doubles when appropriate.  Hopefully the cupboard is being restocked for a home run swing later.

Who knows if Nico should get credit for Bullock, but that was a nice single.  Wood might be a double, especially for what we gave up.  McGee isn’t ideal, but he is an improvement in rim protection and rebounding at a position we are apparently going to continue to use.  So, another single.  Hardy may be a single or a double also.  Most everyone wanted us to trade back into the draft and we did.  I was watching some Collin Sexton highlights the other day and thought all those mid-range pull-ups looked a lot like something Hardy seems to do well.  IF Hardy just gets rotation minutes, he is another single.  If he can score anything like Sexton (with less tunnel vision and greater efficiency) it may be even better than a double.

I was thinking that Sexton would probably be a real target if Carlisle was still around.  Reminds me a little of Monta Ellis.  He would be an asset if we could get him for the right price.

[Dahlsim]

I don't think anyone but JB could give us the truly accurate version.....

Agreed and it was JB's direct interview with JJ Redick that inspired my question.  
Thanks for the detailed breakdown and all the insight in the responses. 

For the most part his interview appears to be in sync with everything you said, except of course you add more detail around what happened after "the window" so to speak closed and the unexpected influence of Detroit.  
Its amazing how often over the years teams that seem to be salary cap constrained amazingly find some way to get out of those constraints when they are motivated enough to want to. 

New York was amazingly motivated, and they found a way.  I think its why teams sometimes have to overpay to lock up talent before its clear that the talent is going to be worth the $.  Projection of talent.  A failure to project accurately one way or the other.  One of the reasons the best front offices are worth the big bucks. 

Jalen's words here at about 1:40 if I hear it right seems to be "like, I went to them before they officially offered it (the extension) to me, and by then it was too late. (then in context is when they did offer which was after I started having a 'monster season') ".  



So to offer my 2 cents on this and another 2 cents on the Mavs offseason, it seems yeah, they had a window.  They lost a really good talent without getting a return.    Seems like their super star is even putting out ??? on his long term plans? 
It required a prediction, a projection on Jalen Brunson's talent and career arc and yes, they missed it.  

I'm not saying Brunson will live up the contract he received, but it does appear that with good projection the Mavs could have had a player locked in for another 4 years that would likely be worth significantly more either on roster or in trade value.  Kidd and company had the inside track and someone was too late in at the draw. 

I like Brunson.  My take on him before he "blew up" so to speak with the nice playoff run, was that he has a ceiling kind of like a Chris Paul light.    He may not reach it, but his game suggests that sort of ceiling. 

He also seems like the sort of character you want, a real winning family and college pedigree.    
On the other hand after the window closed, his price shot up and he had a super motivated NBA big market city even go out and hire his dad, the calculus changed and I can see Dallas mostly dropping out.  Mavs having THJ returning and having Spencer Dinwiddie, can't see them living with too much money tied to JB at this point. 

Mavs Offseason: 

Mavs season now besides a beefed up Luka, has good stuff in Dinwiddie who I thought was a good move, THJ who is still talented but brings a different dynamic from Brunson if returning healthy, and McGee who I think was always underrated and criminally underused by Rick Carlisle. 
The wildcard to how far they could go to me is clearly Christian Wood.  I've watched his career arc from his start in Philly.  He has a super high ceiling but his character, unlike Brunson, has always been the big question mark.  If Kidd can work similar magic on CW as he did with Brunson and the team, the Mavs may not miss Brunson in the end.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It required a prediction, a projection on Jalen Brunson's talent and career arc and yes, they missed it.  

I'm not saying Brunson will live up the contract he received, but it does appear that with good projection the Mavs could have had a player locked in for another 4 years that would likely be worth significantly more either on roster or in trade value.  Kidd and company had the inside track and someone was too late in at the draw. 

Good thoughtful post.  To the point you made above, I wonder how much turnover in the front office and coaching staff played a role in missing this.  Should Finley and Keith Grant have pounded the table until someone listened.  Did Nico and Kidd et al need some evaluation time?  Should they have known based on the data and testimonies available to them from staff holdovers?  Not making an excuse necessarily.  But, the timing of the regime change couldn’t have helped.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I was thinking that Sexton would probably be a real target if Carlisle was still around.  Reminds me a little of Monta Ellis.  He would be an asset if we could get him for the right price.

I’ve started a couple of times to write up a Sexton deal.  Trading THJ into Detroit’s space with Kemba returning gets Dallas under the Apron.  From there it isn’t hard to come up with additions that get Sexton more than Cleveland is offering (but not the money Sexton wants) while staying under the apron.  Making it a 3-way also helps overcome the BYC issue.

With all that said, I can’t bring myself to get too excited about anything I’m coming up with (nor a logical place to send Powell).  The only thing that gets me interested is the idea of Sexton is as a trade chip for a future deal.  Interesting question…who is a more valuable trade chip, Sexton at something in the mid teems or THJ at something in the upper teens.

[cow]

I’m not sure the Murray comparison applies.  What Brunson was last summer and what he is now is viewed pretty differently.  Murray has been the same good player for a while now.  San Antonio dealt him two years prior to his becoming a FA.  Nico didn’t have that luxury with Brunson (and wouldn’t have gotten a thing for him two years ago if he did).

I do agree Donnie didn’t deal Nico the greatest hand on this one.  I do think Nico has done some good things.  I get tired of the ‘smartest guy in the room’ crap and always swinging for the fences.  Nico seems more willing to hit singles and doubles when appropriate.  Hopefully the cupboard is being restocked for a home run swing later.

Who knows if Nico should get credit for Bullock, but that was a nice single.  Wood might be a double, especially for what we gave up.  McGee isn’t ideal, but he is an improvement in rim protection and rebounding at a position we are apparently going to continue to use.  So, another single.  Hardy may be a single or a double also.  Most everyone wanted us to trade back into the draft and we did.  I was watching some Collin Sexton highlights the other day and thought all those mid-range pull-ups looked a lot like something Hardy seems to do well.  IF Hardy just gets rotation minutes, he is another single.  If he can score anything like Sexton (with less tunnel vision and greater efficiency) it may be even better than a double.

The reason I mention the Spurs is they aren't afraid to take a step back.  That's probably easier for them to do as they aren't as close to competing, but Mark Cuban has rarely liked going backwards for the long term good of the team.  Patience isn't his strong suit and he thinks he can shortcut his way to building a team.  It's not the 2000s anymore and the amount of poorly run franchises is fairly small.  In fact, it could be argued that he helms one of the few that are left.

Losing Jalen for nothing should be disheartening and a better front office wouldn't have allowed that to happen.  Will MBT2.0 learn form it?  

Even if I think Nico was a terrible hire based solely on his complete lack of experience and the mess he inherited from the previous regime, I think he can turn out to be a good or great GM given time.  Bullock might have been an overpay but that's the type of slight overpays we need to hit more often.  Even if Wood is a disaster, I think that's a single just for getting rid of four guys that wouldn't contribute.  The grade for that will be largely incomplete until we figure out what is done with Wood long term.  I was the biggest "sign McGee" guy here and while I like the signing, I hate the contract length because of his age.  I've also long said we need to overpay players to get them here and that's why we have McGee and not Crowder.  And McGee at three years is better than any amount of years for the likes of WCS.  

I'd say those are all mostly wins for the Nico tenure.  It's also the moneyball type of moves I've thought the MBT2.0 needed to operate within to be successful.  

We've got some Debbie Downers on the board but we also have some sunshine pumpers.  I don't think it's really fair to point any of those out or be critical of them. I also don't think the Mavs reaching the WCF validates one side or invalidates the other.  Luka could find success in the NBA with his national team, he's that good.   It's important that no one takes that for granted and it goes double for the MBT2.0.  

Personally, I'm not sure if this current construction of the Mavs will be better or worse.  I do think no matter what direction the pendulum swings, it will be within the margins.  That doesn't mean we'll make the WCF again as other teams have made more significant moves, but it wouldn't surprise me either.  Again, he's that good.  But within the margins is where this roster has been for years.  And unless you are a championship team or competing for the top of the draft lottery, that's not a favorable place to be.

[SleepingHero]

Just saying that the Mavs would've almost have had to go to 30+ mil in order to keep Brunson, not 26 that he got from NYK. 

Brunson wanted the Mavs to beat the Knicks offer. They refused. 

Be realistic, is Brunson a 30 mil a year player EVER? No. Thus keeping Brunson was never a realistic possibility. I never thought he would've been so money driven and was totally for resigning Brunson to a deal that even crossed 5/125-130. Then I sobered up and remembered that Brunson got outplayed in the Warriors and for half of that PHX series.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
We've got some Debbie Downers on the board but we also have some sunshine pumpers.  I don't think it's really fair to point any of those out or be critical of them. I also don't think the Mavs reaching the WCF validates one side or invalidates the other.  Luka could find success in the NBA with his national team, he's that good.   It's important that no one takes that for granted and it goes double for the MBT2.0.  

I tracked with you pretty well up to this paragraph (though I doubt you are seriously advocating a SA style tear down while you have a generational talent you are trying to keep happy).

I will point out though that you are telling me that something that actually happened (WCF's appearance) can't be used to validate a positive view because of something that will never happen and can't be proven (Luka and his national team scrubs would find NBA success).  

Success absolutely validates a positive outlook when the outcome is known.  It might not prove (yet) we can be a good team even after losing Brunson for nothing.  But success definitely proved wrong those opposed to the Kidd hire.  And, those who thought the return we got in the KP trade was horrible were wrong too.  How do I know?  A dramatic turnaround in performance validated by a level of team success not approached prior to said trade.  One of the rules I use when hiring people is if you want to find people who will be successful in the future, find success in their past.  Success is a pattern and we are on a better roll right now than some want to give credit for.

[KillerLeft]

Success absolutely validates a positive outlook when the outcome is known.  It might not prove (yet) we can be a good team even after losing Brunson for nothing.  But success definitely proved wrong those opposed to the Kidd hire.  And, those who thought the return we got in the KP trade was horrible were wrong too.  How do I know?  A dramatic turnaround in performance validated by a level of team success not approached prior to said trade.  One of the rules I use when hiring people is if you want to find people who will be successful in the future, find success in their past.  Success is a pattern and we are on a better roll right now than some want to give credit for.

I agree with every word of this. I just can't get past the Brunson thing. I feel like people are minimizing his contributions to last season more every day as a defense mechanism. Regardless of whether any individual thinks it's fair to blame anyone, I think losing him was a big deal on the court and in the locker room.

[omahen]

One of the rules I use when hiring people is if you want to find people who will be successful in the future, find success in their past.  Success is a pattern and we are on a better roll right now than some want to give credit for.

This is an interesting quote. Based on it. Would you hire Kidd, who didn't really have coaching success before?  

Regarding KP return and Mavs results. There were numerous factors that lead to increased success, imho, that happened around same time, so it is very difficult to pinpoint this to just the KP move:
- Luka was getting in form (was also injured in the first part of the season, which had a factor in success)
- they stopped playing the "makes no sense" two center rotations, that looked horrible
- shooting started to improve, everyone was shooting horrible in the first part of the season
- THJ injury also contributed to better balanced lineups by placing more defensively oriented players next to Luka

I still claim KP return was bad. We can all see that supposed "increased flexibility" that was mentioned so many times as main reason for the trade by Mavs themselves, didn't really bring any benefit. If Dinwiddie is the guy they wanted, he was a FA in 2021. With a little creativity they could sign him and probably be also be able to keep THJ and bring Bullock. Everyone knew Mavs badly needed another creator in 2021. Mavs included, since they targeted Lowry.

I think sleeping on last year success is the last thing we should do. It was great, but it was an one time thing since 2011. I am far more concerned by the obvious low success rate in nailing the transfer windows (summers and TDLs). I will just point out the big picture how I see it:
2018: Luka draft - could took 20 mil of Bazemore (I think expiring at the time) but rather gave up the pick
2019: had possibility for max cap space, targeted Kemba and lost. Didn't bring in anything (paid to get rid off Wright a year later) and didn't use cap space for assets. 
2020: huge miss in key draft
2021: another max space possibility, targeted Lowry and missed. Improved around the edges.
2022: Lost second best player for nothing, didn't replace the ballhandling lost and didn't bring in the hugely needed wing. They did improve at center.
overall: with all those misses, Mavs totally failed in acquiring any top end talent or assets and we are constantly hearing how they lack the ammo for trade. Roster is also getting old as all key players enter their thirties this season. 

I think it is fair to say that FO is not doing a good job, to put it mildly. I think the success is mainly coming from improvement of some key players (Luka, Brunson and DFS) and not from good work done by the FO. It pains me to watch how Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, Boston are building around their stars and how smart franchises like Toronto or Memphis are run. Dallas is no where near in that regard.


To end, here is the West picture as it looks now (in order from last regular season): 
1. Phoenix: same team, all picks available
2. Memphis: same team, a bunch of young guys added, all picks available
3. GSW: same team, young ones (Wiseman, Moody, Kuminga) might improve, 2 picks available
4. Dallas: same at best, 2 draft picks available
5. Utah: imploded
6. Denver: moves around the edges, Murray and MPJ will likely return, no picks
7. Minnesota: added Gobert, no picks
8. Pelicans: Zion will likely return, added McCullom at TDL, all picks
9. Clippers: Kawhi likely returns, added Powell and RoCo at TDL to already stacked team
10. Spurs: tanking
11. Lakers: on verge of imploding
12. Sacramento: got what seems like good pick, but likely not much better
13. Portland: will likely be better, but not by much
14. OKC: tanking
15. Houston: tanking

So basically, Utah is out and Denver, Minny, Pels and Clippers are likely better. Phoenix, Memphis and GSW all have much better assets than Dallas to further improve team if they want to.