Playoff Series Imponderables

[Kammrath]

I agree with this, but I ALSO think there's an unpredictable human element to all of this that we just can't make sense of, no matter how hard we try. 

Maybe there's something in Richardson that just changed forever when Miami traded him. Sometimes, people just fall out of love with doing stuff they're really into and stop going so hard. Stuff like that happens around us all the time in real life. It has probably happened TO all of us, at some point.

At the end of the day, all that matters is that the Richardson Dallas had this season is not a player who can help them in the way they need.

This is very astute.

[mavsluvr]

I think you might be right about all of the above, but could also see the kid figuring some things out and looking way better in 2-3 years. Huge mystery, and I hope the Mavs guess the right ending. If he's a dead end, NOW is the time to move him, while his value is high. 

I think Jalen is still useful as a regular season guy, and I think the Mavs are inclined to give him a chance to further prove himself, although I also think they wouldn't hesitate to move on for the right price -- maybe in a trade for that big playmaker they are wanting. 

Having said that, I think the biggest mistake of the series Carlisle made was to go away from Brunson and ride Burke instead during game 7. It wouldn't have bothered me if he tried it in any of the other games (Brunson had a few stinkers) but I just feel like in a game 7 you dance with the one who brung ya.

I don't know how much difference it would have made, but you may be right. 

[KillerLeft]

This is very astute.

[mavsluvr]

That's my guy.  I maintain that he's potentially a much bigger player into the success of the Mavs or some team if they can hurry up and use him before he really hits his big man expiration date.   

Yeah, it was really odd to suddenly in the hottest fire of the playoffs start really using Boban more the way IMO he should have been used all season.   Agree with you the chemistry was lacking which makes it all the more amazing how well the team performed, the general way they held their own for the most part or even better won the +/- during the BIG KP/Boban runs.  

Did they even run this at all during the season?  I don't recall seeing it.  So yeah, if they ran it as a consistent look they go to no doubt the difficulties making the passes into the paint and the turnovers would be greatly decreased.  I thought Boban really helped free up KP. 

I don't think they did. It seems like I recall some announcer saying that KP and Boban had not played together during the season, but I couldn't swear to it. At any rate, it was rarely used, if at all. 

It seems like, if they knew their front court weaknesses rendered it somewhat likely that they would have to resort to this, that they could have been more prepared for it. Even if they didn't want to break it out during games, some basic work on the fundamentals might have been useful -- making crisp, accurate passes into the post, Bobi getting in the habit of keeping the ball high, maybe doing some hand exercises to strengthen his grip strength, if that was part of the issue, etc. 

Yes you're vulnerable to great shooting in the PnR and the 3 but I'm not at all seeing that the Mavs were any worse defensively than they were when they did not play the big lineups.  

The biggest killer runs from the Clippers as I recall came when the JUMBO rotation was NOT on the floor including the 3 point eruptions that killed the Mavs in game 6 and 7.  None of it really had anything to do with slow BIGS.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of that.
  
The standard rotation guys got cooked on defense but the killer is they also went cold at the worst time on offense, which smart use of the BIG lineups could have avoided. 

It really shocked me how they just couldn't buy a bucket for so many possessions. A lot of missed jump shots, but also blown layups, turnovers, failure to grab rebounds, etc. If they could have managed some consistent scoring inside, that would have been a great thing. 

I was disappointed in the big lineups on the rebounding front. It seemed that the super-sized lineups should have been absolutely crushing the small Clippers on the boards, but it didn't happen. Not saying that was Bobi's fault -- he's actually a pretty good rebounder.

[mavsluvr]

Quote:Imponderable - definition is - not ponderable : incapable of being weighed or evaluated with exactness

Consulting the dictionary, eh? I'm impressed!!

[mavsluvr]

Agreed. It's crystal clear that the decision makers, Carlisle included, had a specific vision for a type of player they want sharing the back-court with Luka. Or, if you believe they wanted Kemba Walker, which I do, the Wright/Richardson type was at least one of a few ways they thought they could go with the guard rotation. 

I think they are just as dismayed by the way both situations crumbled as we are. Hopefully, they are learning and adapting. The idea that they'll triple down on that and somehow miss a third time scares me to death. Like, which guy will we get excited about next year, and how long before old, faithful THJ replaces HIM?

If Cuban is telling the truth about viewing that position as the main piece needed to contend, I wonder if the Mavs spend big money on it this offseason. And if so, what happens to THJ. 

Although Timmy has fallen into line when he has been asked to come off the bench, it is a little hard for me to imagine he's going to do that as part of a new signing if he knows that's the situation going in. Unless maybe he truly has a sixth-man role. (I am sure you already realize this, but to be clear, I don't just mean whoever is first off the bench in a particular game. I'm talking about a guy who doesn't start, but routinely plays starter minutes and is usually on the floor to finish games. Like Jet.)

If they ask him to come off the bench in a traditional reserve role, that would seem to presume a much lower level of compensation, and I think he can probably get a starting gig somewhere.

[mavsluvr]

I don't think the "twin towers" effectiveness could have really been foreseen.

No?

I think the BIG rotation failure for RC this year was not seeing that JR needed to be benched like 30 games earlier. I think playing Boban heavy minutes just isn't sustainable, especially next to KP. But I think Boban definitely makes Luka better while KP doesn't (other than creating some spacing).

I think one of the most disappointing things has been the relative lack of synergy between Luka and KP. It seems like there should be a way to unlock that, but maybe not. 

[Dahlsim]

Dahlsim Wrote:
Hard to say here but my 2 cents is that Carlisle and Kristaps have to settle on a role that best maximizes his advantages. Is being Ultra tall and athletic with skill still an advantage in the NBA?  I think it can be.  

For a while, anyway. The ultra-tall component goes to durability. I saw some statistics not long ago on ultra-tall guys in the NBA. The takeaway was that those guys generally last only 5-6 seasons before they have to start missing a lot of games just to stay in the same place. Kris might already be at that point -- hope not, but it's undeniably an issue. 

Agree, as an issue there's no denying it.  On that point I've always thought the style of play is a factor that is not often mentioned.   The other factor often not considered is who the BIG played with on the front line which determines a lot about the role he has to play on the floor. 

Dirk for instance had great longevity as a 7 footer not only because he took care of his body but also because his style of play, especially as he aged, did not require as much of the high flying jumping and impact on his joints, feet, knees etc. 

Being a jump shooter and conserving himself as an effective defender but not an all out throw you body around big, all played into is longevity. 

Tim Duncan. Another big man with great longevity and a Big Fundamental style of play that likely reduced the total number of high impacts to his legs, feet, knees. 

Shaq played 19 years, shifting his weight and knocking defenders around on his way to the HoF. 
I see a current guy like Brook Lopez at 13 years and still going strong having now converted a larger percentage of his offense to standing and shooting from the 3. Inside a lot of banging is absorbed by Giannis. 

I could see KP perhaps extending his body also if he can become a real sharpshooter at his height and size, and also by playing the 4 while big 5's like Boban or some other durable but skilled BIG absorbs a good % of the hits inside. 

Agree that a big part of KP's issues seem like they have something to do with his lack of physical strength. In Dirk's first few years in the league, he had a similar issue with upper body strength. One would also think that he has a fear of getting hurt again, whether he is fully conscious of it or not. 

Valid point again but I also go back to the point I made earlier.  Something people often miss with Dirk is how he was at his best and also protected often by having a strong BIG on the front line with him. 
Erick Dampier might have had scissors for hands but was big strong center, with a 15 year career and 6 in Dallas including going all the way to finals with Dirk. 
Then of course Dirk and Dallas had the 3-headed monster 5 rotation surrounding him the championship year with  Tyson Chandler/Brendan Haywood/Ian Mahinmi providing banging, rebounding, rim protection and just enough offense to free up Nowitzki to use his best talents and stay healthy on the floor.

[Dahlsim]

...

Unfortunately, things turn south when you realize the Mavs were playing Boban & WCS big minutes and we still haven't discussed the Clippers second best player: Paul George.
... 

Can't agree at all with singling out Boban & WCS as part of a turn south. 
Let's look at the facts: 
In fact Boban was DNPCD for the first half of series didn't start playing at all until after the Mavericks were completely controlled at home in Game 3 then were in fact getting completely crushed at home in Game 4.  

• Boban came into Game 4 and not only gave 12 pts and 6 reb. on 5 of 9 less than 15 min but also was the only Plus player on the entire roster with a +3.  
  
• In Game 5 Bobi 20 min 9 pts 7 reb, WCS only plays about 5 minutes and chips in a bucket and reb. Mavs win the game.  
  
• In pivotal Game 6 you have at last a case with WCS checking in at all 20 min of -13 time and for that matter Kleber over 20 min 0-4  of -13 .
  Boban checked in for 17min 12pt. 9 reb. for +5 2nd only of all Mavs to Brunson at +9 so he's hardly your problem there. In fact I could easily make the case that more of Boban/KP minutes in place of Kleber/WCS minutes could have changed the outcome of that game and given Dallas the series. 
  
• Game 7 was pretty much lost by Dallas being -10 on 3 pointers but again Bobi was 7 of 11 10 reb 3 ast. and his -1 was 2nd best only to DFS +1 for the game. 
  
  

Basically the turn big turn South was the only reason Carlisle went big and it did in fact slow the downturn and gave Dallas a chance to win.

[vfromlmf]

Totally agree with your post. My post was pretty poorly written. I intended for the post to be about the Mavs talent gap. If you compare player for player the Mavs guys produced at similar levels to most of the Clippers guys. 

KP’s situation is a case of misplaced expectations. If you expected him to contribute like a number 2 he fell way short. His production most closely matched Morris. Both guys are important but neither is a star. 

Where things really start to diverge in terms of production among guys who got significant minutes is when you get to Boban & WCS. They both did some good things - and in Boban’s case he probably kept the Mavs competitive- but those guys don’t come close to matching Paul George. 

Not sure if that makes sense. It’s just a weird way of pointing out the obvious. Dallas needs a secondary creator. 

And I think I have the answer but that will be the subject of another post.

[mavsluvr]

I think pre COVID Maxi was a lot better on defense. Mavs had the 2nd ranked defense after the first nine games. With Maxi and WCS/Powell playing in the front court. Really thought that they finally found the right scheme and players. Even Richardson´s defense was good. Switch heavy defense. Preventing penetration and easy kick out 3s.
What followed was obviously the worst case scenario. KP returns and is a defensive liability. Mavs lose multiple rotation players because of COVID. Mavs adjusted the scheme because KP cannot play in a switch heavy defense. Return of the drop coverage (I hate it...).
We saw a few games without KP in the 2nd part of the season and the switch everything defense returned. I remember a win against the Jazz with Maxi and Melli as the starting bigs.

For me there are two options Go back to the switch heavy scheme and get rid of KP or invest a lot of assets into better individual defenders on the perimeter.

Very interesting!

[mavsluvr]

I think LAC is legit and they are my favs to win the title after BRK. 

However, I think RC massively underperformed in the LAC series. I think hot shooting from the role players and ELITE, ELITE play from Luka for 3 quarters a game covered up a LOT of coaching and rotation warts. I think the Boban starting decision was REALLY GOOD, but beyond that I don't think RC did much positive from a coaching stand point other than letting Luka go to work and not getting in his way too much. 

I think RC leaned on Maxi, hoping he would be Maxi of old....and he wasn't even close.

Yes, he did lean on Maxi, who wasn't even close to the Maxi of old. Rick attributed that to a season-long procession of illness/injuries, including the Achilles soreness during the series. I guess we'll see whether Maxi can return to his previous form. 

I think RC leaned on DFS to stop Kawhi far too much, and as much as I LOVE DFS, he is NOT an NBA stopper even remotely. 

No, he isn't. By the time he had gotten around to using DFS on Kawhi, what would you have done instead?

Look, I don't think RC has very good pieces at his disposal, but I think RC was a "C" at best as a coach this past year. Really disappointed in his overall performance. I feel like he almost seemed disinterested at times. Who knows.

We could probably have a whole separate discussion on the coaching in the series. 

There were a number of head-scratching moments. For me, it's sort of like an expert card player who holds a worse hand than his opponent. If he loses, you might differ with some of the playing decisions he made, but did the cards mean there was just so much he could do anyway? I'm not saying it's one way or the other, just that it's very hard to separate performance from what he had to work with. 

I have to say, I don't think Rick was uninterested in coaching the team this season. If you are right and his heart isn't in it any more, then he should move on and make room for new blood and fresh ideas. But I think he is a dedicated professional and is giving his best efforts, wrongheaded or not.

I think there is a general sense of frustration among fans that it seems like the team should be better than it is. Maybe that's a failure to use a system that maximizes the talent at their disposal. Maybe some of us have just drunk too much of the front office Kool-Aid. But the coach is a natural place to look after a disappointing performance. The coach isn't perfect, any more than anyone else, and hopefully he and the front office will dig deep to come up with some answers.

---

I think JB will get MORE effective in the regular season with an increased role (to an extent), but in the elite speed and intensity of playoff basksetball he looked like he didn't have the physical tools to be on the court. I am not trying to "shock"....but I personally WAS shocked at how out of place he looked. Wasn't expecting it.

That's really the question, isn't it?

[Kammrath]

No, he isn't. By the time he had gotten around to using DFS on Kawhi, what would you have done instead?

I would have doubled Kawhi more and just thrown a different defender at him more often. Leaving DFS on him for such long periods of time allowed Kawhi to get REALLY comfortable. And a comfortable superstar in the groove is bad news if you are on the other side.

[Kammrath]

it's very hard to separate performance from what he had to work with....

I think there is a general sense of frustration among fans that it seems like the team should be better than it is.

I 100% agree with this. 

At times I find it helpful to process the spectrum below. 


Roster Building Failure |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| Coaching Failure



This is where I tend to fall:

Roster Building Failure |------------------------------------------------------------------X-------------------------| Coaching Failure


The reason I fall there (and I think the reason many fans do) is not so much that we believe the sunshine pumping of the front office, but because we see Luka, who IMO is the best player I have seen since MJ (wouldn't have said that till this past playoff run, but he blew me away for the first 3 quarters of the games). 

I think Luka is SO transcendent that I think RC has underperformed pretty significantly. I also think KP is INCREDIBLY talented and I think RC has really failed to get even close to the most out of him in regard to winning. I think many of the weaker players on the roster RC does GREAT with and really gets MORE out of them than most. But I think RC has massively underperformed with his two most talented players, in the sense of getting as many wins out of them as I think he should. 

Look, I think the roster is massively flawed as well, and Cuban/Donnie deserve tons of blame. But there is lots more going on than "bad players." I think RC is an above average coach in the league, but no way do I think he is top 5 (as many on this board do) and probably not top 10 most of the time when looking at the last decade (post championship). He has BRILLIANT moments and lots of "meh" moments as well. I 100% think RC is the wrong coach for KP and the jury is out for me on whether he is the right coach for Luka. I would give him one more year to win with Luka, otherwise I would make a change right away.

[vfromlmf]

I think Luka is SO transcendent that I think RC has underperformed pretty significantly. I also think KP is INCREDIBLY talented and I think RC has really failed to get even close to the most out of him in regard to winning.

Man I hear ya but go rewatch Game 7. Folks on this board focus a lot of KP's numbers but the Mavs lost because they sucked on defense. The scored plenty of points, and KP didn't play terrible in game 7 on offense.

But when you look at the defensive tape Luka and KP consistently made mistakes and KP just looked totally physically overmatched. KP just can't guard the perimeter and I'm not sure you can pin that on coaching. The dude is a slow 7' 3" center with sloppy footwork and terrible defensive awareness and honestly he looks injured and out of rhythm.

[mavsluvr]

I would have doubled Kawhi more and just thrown a different defender at him more often. Leaving DFS on him for such long periods of time allowed Kawhi to get REALLY comfortable. And a comfortable superstar in the groove is bad news if you are on the other side.

Yeah, I hear you. It hurt my heart to see Kawhi repeatedly mowing our team down like no one was even there.

[Dahlsim]

Totally agree with your post. My post was pretty poorly written. I intended for the post to be about the Mavs talent gap. If you compare player for player the Mavs guys produced at similar levels to most of the Clippers guys. 

KP’s situation is a case of misplaced expectations. If you expected him to contribute like a number 2 he fell way short. His production most closely matched Morris. Both guys are important but neither is a star. 

Where things really start to diverge in terms of production among guys who got significant minutes is when you get to Boban & WCS. They both did some good things - and in Boban’s case he probably kept the Mavs competitive- but those guys don’t come close to matching Paul George. 

Not sure if that makes sense. It’s just a weird way of pointing out the obvious. Dallas needs a secondary creator. 

And I think I have the answer but that will be the subject of another post.

 
Ok, I think I see what you're getting at. I guess you're looking at the minutes and the production.  If Boban is your #2 you have problems.  His minutes alone will be a problem but also your offense would need a greater mix of inside outside and well he's not All star.  WCS?  I don't think there's anything even discuss there.  He's a role playing center you hope to give you great impact defensively and score opportunistically.  

Again though, the Mavs were getting killed in game 3 and 4 before Bobi or WCS were really a factor and Boban hadn't played at all in the series.  So the production dropped off in Game 3 and Game 4 it fell off a cliff to the point that Carlisle starting reaching for straws and at least found one. 

Yes, there was no Paul George but Id also wager that if Boban got Pauls George's minutes and offensive touches ran for him we might be surprised.  
But then there was no Morris or Bobby Jackson either, just not a lot of big performances from Mavs not name Doncic, at all.  

KP and THJ were those designated hitters on this roster.

[mavsluvr]

I think this is basically the story of the series. The Clippers won 4 of the last five games and the Mavs house of cards came crashing down once Lue figured out how to attack Dallas by going small. 

I oversimplified by pointing directly at KP's inability to defend the paint as the turning point. That was certainly a problem but it may not have been lethal if the Mavs' perimeter defenders did a better job of keeping the Clips out of the paint to begin with. 

The Mavs overall defense just wasn't good enough ... but let's not forget, the series went to 7 games and the Mavs certainly could've won, despite the talent gap.

Lets call Kawhi and Luka a wash 

Reggie Jackson and THJ were pretty close 

Batum and DFS were pretty close

Morris fairly well matched what the Mavs got from KP

Unfortunately, things turn south when you realize the Mavs were playing Boban & WCS big minutes and we still haven't discussed the Clippers second best player: Paul George.

So in the end, a bunch of people on this board are going to call for the Mavs to trade everyone and rebuild the whole thing this this summer. It's tempting. But you can also make the case that they're really only 1-2 players away.

Help Wanted: a center who can defend the paint and a good 2nd fiddle guard/forward

Just to clarify, when you group these pairs together, I think you are positing a sort of talent ledger for both teams, and showing to what degree the Mavs fall short. As opposed to saying that particular paired players neutralized each other in the series. And suggesting that the Mavs may be a Paul George-level player short in the talent department, as well as identifying the two positions where you see the biggest holes.

[Jommybone]

I think you all are being unfair to the Dallas role players. The Clips have two-way stars who do the bulk of their defending for them. Dallas relies on its role players to handle the lion’s share of the defense. That was a big ask, and they weren’t up to the task. But the Clips’ role players wouldn’t have fared better. They couldn’t slow Luka and they wouldn’t have slowed Kawhi or PG.

[mavsluvr]

I don’t see how we could possibly know that in any way right now.

Agree, as fans, we can't know one way or the other. 

Are you talking about a bone/ligament deterioration, or a muscle type one?

I am referring to the cumulative deterioration of ligaments, cartilage, joints and bones that tends to strip NBA players, particularly super-tall ones, of their mobility as the years and injuries take their toll. Not presenting the potential decline as a fact, but a matter on which there appears to be a basis for concern.   

JJJ is a pretty solid gauge on this to me. Seeing him come back months after KP did, not sure why the bigger tendency isn’t to point to that.

One injury is different from another, and it is tough to compare them one-on-one without more specific information. 

Rather than believing something we couldn’t possibly know, I put my faith in the most likely scenario, he came back too soon and needs time to weight and basketball train.

I like your optimistic outlook, and as fans, there is a lot to be said for looking on the sunny side, cuz why not? The Mavericks organization presumably has much more info, and will need to make clear-eyed decisions. 


I think he comes back to begin the season showing us bubble KP and minus major injury, starts to peter out toward the middle/end of the season unless we load manage him like Kawhi.

That is indeed a possibility. 

If that actually takes place, I think the phones ring for him again.

The defense is a strength and conditioning thing mostly because he’s done well with it before. He can improve on it as well as his exit interview suggested he would. Strength and conditioning will help with his shot and stamina as well. 

Agree that strength and conditioning can only help. It won't solve problems like poor footwork and lack of mobility, but perhaps those won't be big issues with a healthy and strong KP.

The head stuff...that’ll subside with winning.

Could be.