Playoff Series Imponderables

[KillerLeft]

I think JB will get MORE effective in the regular season with an increased role (to an extent), but in the elite speed and intensity of playoff basksetball he looked like he didn't have the physical tools to be on the court. I am not trying to "shock"....but I personally WAS shocked at how out of place he looked. Wasn't expecting it.

[mavsluvr]

What's crazy and a bit counterintuitive is the Mavs forced the Clippers to go small but that had the unfortunate side effect of rendering many of Dallas' best players unplayable too. 

KP couldn't guard the paint so Carlisle had to go big with Boban, WCS and a bit of Powell. That forced KP to forward who took Kleber's minutes. 

Then you had three Mavs who needed 40+ MIN 
- DFS, who Carlisle couldn't take off the floor. 
- THJ, because at least he had balls.
- Of course Luka 

In the end I certainly don't think Brunson, Kleber or JRich played great, but I don't think the loss is an indictment on them at all. It was all just matchups and the combined ripple effect of Luka dominating Beverly & Zubac and KP not being able to defend the rim.

I like this line of thinking -- addressing the domino effect of various primary adjustments, resulting in numerous players becoming unplayable/losing minutes, and others needing to play more and/or in different roles than was considered desirable at the outset. And ultimately turning into a systemic collapse.

---

I think Luka has three major issues:

1) His diet and conditioning. I think this is BY FAR his biggest issue and literally cost the Mavs the series against LAC. This is my biggest concern for his long term career. He can challenge MJ as best player ever IF he gets this together, if he doesn't his career could take a much lower trajectory.

2) Immaturity as a team leader. I talked a lot about this in Dec and Jan when the KP stuff and other on court chemistry started to lurk. Luka just doesn't quite know how to be the Alpha yet...I trust he will figure this out. 

3) Not having enough help from other guards. I think Luka needs more help from other guards to be able to spell him in the playoffs, BUT the greats can all produce 42-48 min nights in the playoffs and not lose a step.

Thanks for this and your other ideas. Will respond in the next couple days.

[vfromlmf]

the domino effect of various primary adjustments, resulting in numerous players becoming unplayable/losing minutes, and others needing to play more and/or in different roles than was considered desirable at the outset. And ultimately turning into a systemic collapse.

I think this is basically the story of the series. The Clippers won 4 of the last five games and the Mavs house of cards came crashing down once Lue figured out how to attack Dallas by going small. 

I oversimplified by pointing directly at KP's inability to defend the paint as the turning point. That was certainly a problem but it may not have been lethal if the Mavs' perimeter defenders did a better job of keeping the Clips out of the paint to begin with. 

The Mavs overall defense just wasn't good enough ... but let's not forget, the series went to 7 games and the Mavs certainly could've won, despite the talent gap.

Lets call Kawhi and Luka a wash 

Reggie Jackson and THJ were pretty close 

Batum and DFS were pretty close

Morris fairly well matched what the Mavs got from KP

Unfortunately, things turn south when you realize the Mavs were playing Boban & WCS big minutes and we still haven't discussed the Clippers second best player: Paul George.

So in the end, a bunch of people on this board are going to call for the Mavs to trade everyone and rebuild the whole thing this this summer. It's tempting. But you can also make the case that they're really only 1-2 players away.

Help Wanted: a center who can defend the paint and a good 2nd fiddle guard/forward

[ItsGoTime]

So in the end, a bunch of people on this board are going to call for the Mavs to trade everyone and rebuild the whole thing this this summer. It's tempting. But you can also make the case that they're really only 1-2 players away.

Help Wanted: a center who can defend the paint and a good 2nd fiddle guard/forward

I think the reason we basically need to tear it down is because we won’t have the money in FA to get the 2 things you’re asking for without trades for those pieces, then you have to fill the holes left from the pieces you traded. A different domino effect.

[mavsluvr]

1) Luka's body clearly has room for improvement.  He's a long way from the "cut" he could achieve and that's something very achievable for he and the coaches.  

Mostly though in the playoffs it was clear he didn't have enough Star level help.  In fact he had no star level help.  In one game he was criticized for playing too much hero ball, then the next he was criticized for passing too much even though he was being double and triple teamed.  

By Game 7 he had a big scoring game and he's help, KP and THJ got a good number looks up.  They cratered from the 3 point line while the opponent good looks and 20-10 3 point advantage for 30 insurmountable points of difference.  If Luka's teammates shot better and Mavs pull out the series, this whole thread discussion perspective is different. 

No mystery at all there.  The main Luka problem is not at all about Luka.  Doncic has some good players around him, but no All Star level support.  Was anyone even in consideration for an All Star berth outside of Doncic. 

Totally agree that Luka did not have sufficient help. And that he was a solution, not a problem. 


However, any player, no matter how great, has room for improvement. In Luka's case, I think he could play big minutes more comfortably if he were in tiptop shape. As you point out, that should be a doable objective if he wants to commit to it.

[mavsluvr]

I think Luka has three major issues:

1) His diet and conditioning. I think this is BY FAR his biggest issue and literally cost the Mavs the series against LAC. This is my biggest concern for his long term career. He can challenge MJ as best player ever IF he gets this together, if he doesn't his career could take a much lower trajectory.

Hopefully, he can be convinced of the importance of this. 

2) Immaturity as a team leader. I talked a lot about this in Dec and Jan when the KP stuff and other on court chemistry started to lurk. Luka just doesn't quite know how to be the Alpha yet...I trust he will figure this out. 

Yes, these big superstars all have to go through realizing they can't do it all themselves, and successfully incorporating their teammates. Luka's only 22. Agree that he will probably figure it out. 

3) Not having enough help from other guards. I think Luka needs more help from other guards to be able to spell him in the playoffs, BUT the greats can all produce 42-48 min nights in the playoffs and not lose a step.

Yes, when they can't even go for five minutes without bleeding points without him, the situation is untenable. They need a group who can at least hold down the fort for a few. 

[mavsluvr]

Hard to say here but my 2 cents is that Carlisle and Kristaps have to settle on a role that best maximizes his advantages. Is being Ultra tall and athletic with skill still an advantage in the NBA?  I think it can be.  

For a while, anyway. The ultra-tall component goes to durability. I saw some statistics not long ago on ultra-tall guys in the NBA. The takeaway was that those guys generally last only 5-6 seasons before they have to start missing a lot of games just to stay in the same place. Kris might already be at that point -- hope not, but it's undeniably an issue. 

1) KP has to shoot better, work on his shot over the offseason.  Outside 1st at the 3 point line he needs to be a 40% ish guy at volume and I have to believe he can refine at least a single shot or so in the paint and midrange.  
He shoots the Tim Duncan fundamental bank for example.  If he worked hard enough to be consistent with it then its a real weapon in the short and midrange. Look at Embiid in the midrange. Why couldn't KP do that.  No one can really bother it.

I am not sure the question is whether KP can't do that, or whether he won't. He appears to have a pretty crystallized idea of how he wants to play, and I just don't know how committed he really is to re-working his game. He is saying some of the right things, so maybe he is getting a sense of how important adaptability is. Agree that his shooting needs to be more consistent/varied.   

2) I thought Boban with KP was solid, even better than solid, and gave the Clippers the most problems.  Carlisle let them off the Hook because he didn't go with that when the games were really on the line.  He want back to his more standard rotations which I don't have a problem with except that they are not elite.  The shooters are streaky, not elite, not as good as the Clippers as we saw.  

A strong big skilled inside oriented Center worked better than small ball wings surrounding KP or KP at 5 with a meh PF next to him.  KP at 5 doesn't look like he's up for the intense physical challenge of constantly holding the boards and challenging consistently at the rim.  With a big 5 KP can come in now and then using his length as the secondary help. 

Agree that a big part of KP's issues seem like they have something to do with his lack of physical strength. In Dirk's first few years in the league, he had a similar issue with upper body strength. One would also think that he has a fear of getting hurt again, whether he is fully conscious of it or not. The brain has a reaction below the conscious level when the body faces a situation where it has been hurt before, and it takes disciplined training for the conscious brain to overcome that. I don't know whether that has been part of his routine or not. An additional issue would be whether muscling up would have adverse affects on his already limited mobility.  

That said, I get that Coach wants to play small, like all the coaches do.  Problem is are you going to have the best talent playing the same style as the top opponents?  Will your wings be better man for man than the elite wings of the top teams?   
If not then counter matching BIG talent that is undervalued may be the Mavs best bet.

If that is indeed the case at least part of the time, it seems like more focus on getting the BIG lineups sharpened up and in sync might be a bigger priority, going into a season where practice time will not be quite so limited. 

Agree that KP is the biggest conundrum on the roster. I have come to think that the Mavs have reached the point where they will consider trading him, although I don't think they will give him up for peanuts.

[mavsluvr]

I think these are the issues with KP:

1) Attitude and chemistry. His heart was NOT in it this season anything like it was in his first year in DAL. I think he does not "fit" with Luka OR RC for whatever reason from an intangible standpoint.

2) Defense. I think his defense slipped this year because his heart wasn't in it. I think if his head space is off, then his D goes first.

3) Screening and Pick & Roll effectiveness. I also think this flows from the attitude/heart issues. I think he doesn't do the details well at all when his heart is not in it.

I do think KP is injury prone and has MAYBE lost some of his ability because of the knee injuries.....but I think his HEAD and HEART are the singular issue above all else. I do not think those will be fixed for him as a player in DAL. I think he needs to be traded ASAP.

I tend to think the physical issues may be driving some of the head and heart issues, but at this point, that amounts to little more than quibbling. Whether KP can't do what is necessary, won't do it, or some combination, the fact remains that he isn't performing at the expected levels, however much Rick and Cuban publicly deny it. 

If it's primarily a head and heart issue, then that is at least theoretically fixable, if the Mavs want to go for it and KP is willing. I am more worried that he has already entered a physical decline, despite being only 25. If he will have to miss a lot of games going forward, and will be hobbled in the games he can play, then his usefulness relative to expectations will be greatly diminished. But even if the problem is "just" psychological, KP would have to want to resolve it in a direction acceptable to the Mavs, and whether that is likely remains TBD, as far as we know. You may be right that the situation is past the point of no return.

[mavsluvr]

Don't know about the injuries.  It may just be that JR is at best an above replacement level wing, which may not be bad in your rotation at all IF the stars are there.  In Miami he looked like maybe he might be more.  In Philly he had stars to play off and he looked solid, not really great.  That may be where he lands. solid, not great but a lot better if you have your 1st 2nd and 3rd options in performing.

It seems that the Mavs envision a certain type of player partnering with Luka in the back court, and I think they were hoping that J Rich would fill that role. But he clearly hasn't. Maybe he had lingering COVID issues. Or maybe he's just not that good. Agree that he would probably look better alongside three great players. 


It wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs decide to move on, one way or another. If they keep him, it's not clear to me that he can be a regular starter, but, as always, I hope for the best.

[mavsluvr]

I do not think JR "fell off" one bit this year. I think RC's usage of him "fell off" (thank God!) but I think JR was the weakest link on this team for the whole year (even more than KP). 

He "fell off" in the sense that he went from starter to barely used in a very short time. Agree that he never met expectations. 

I do not think it was injury related, I just think he is not even an average NBA player. Though I have to give RC credit, that JR was MUCH more effective in the tiny role he gave him at the very end of the year.

If he is indeed just not very good, and that is not related to injury or illness, it would seem to indicate a substantial talent mis-evaluation by the front office. Is that what you believe occurred?

[mavsluvr]

Kleber having a tough year, from Covid on top of whatever else is undisclosed had a huge impact on the Mavs season coming up short of some expectations and on Luka having too much load.  
He has looked like a real up and coming bright spot at times but whatever the issues are Coach strongly alluded to   here's to hoping he gets full healthy and back on stride. Indeed.

The Mavs may have over-relied on Maxi to an extent, in the sense of counting on him to do a job that may have been a little too much for him, and that came back to bite them in the playoffs. Or, maybe it was just an unfortunate season of one thing after another going wrong. We know the Achilles soreness was still an issue.


I think the Mavs really like Maxi, who has been the essence of a good soldier, but it wouldn't shock me to see him moved on or changed to a bench role after all is said and done, especially if they decide to beef up the front court.

[Kammrath]

If he is indeed just not very good, and that is not related to injury or illness, it would seem to indicate a substantial talent mis-evaluation by the front office. Is that what you believe occurred?

I think the Mavs wanted three things in the JR trade:

1) An expiring contract to have cap room for this summer.

2) The asset of #36 and what became TBey.

3) A chance to see if JR could have the impact he had in his last year in MIA. 


I think his last year in MIA has been shown to be an outlier. I think Spoelstra (one of the very best coaches in the league IMO) was able to get more out of JR than RC was. I also think that JR just massively overperformed that year and he is just regressing to the mean.

[ItsGoTime]

I am more worried that he has already entered a physical decline, despite being only 25.

I don’t see how we could possibly know that in any way right now. Are you talking about a bone/ligament deterioration, or a muscle type one? JJJ is a pretty solid gauge on this to me. Seeing him come back months after KP did, not sure why the bigger tendency isn’t to point to that. Rather than believing something we couldn’t possibly know, I put my faith in the most likely scenario, he came back too soon and needs time to weight and basketball train.


I think he comes back to begin the season showing us bubble KP and minus major injury, starts to peter out toward the middle/end of the season unless we load manage him like Kawhi. If that actually takes place, I think the phones ring for him again.

The defense is a strength and conditioning thing mostly because he’s done well with it before. He can improve on it as well as his exit interview suggested he would. Strength and conditioning will help with his shot and stamina as well. 

The head stuff...that’ll subside with winning.

[mavsluvr]

Maxi was really poor most of the year. I don't know if he never recovered from COVID or if he just suddenly went "over the hill" in basketball years. He was REALLY disappointing as a defender this year and his O impact really slipped as well. I fear the Mavs might have missed their chance to "sell high" on him and that he will never really be a positive key rotation piece again. But maybe an offseason will get him back in stride.

Carlisle referenced the fact that he had the most serious case of all the COVID guys, and it took him longer to recover. And then, it was just one injury after another the rest of the season -- not necessarily bad enough to prevent him from playing, but enough to limit his mobility and explosion. 

Maybe he can get back to pre-season shape, and that should help. But I suspect he may have reached his ceiling as a player. He is 29 years old, and big leaps in development are not common at that age. If this is the case, I seriously question whether this level is good enough for him to be as heavily relied on as he is. I do think he is a good culture guy, but that goes only so far.

[mavsluvr]

I think the Mavs wanted three things in the JR trade:

1) An expiring contract to have cap room for this summer.

Do you think he will opt in, frustrating this objective?

2) The asset of #36 and what became TBey.

3) A chance to see if JR could have the impact he had in his last year in MIA. 

Iirc, they hyped him as an answer at the starting position, and not just as a guy they were taking a flyer on. I guess it's possible that was just PR, but I had the impression they were expecting more than they got. 


I think his last year in MIA has been shown to be an outlier. I think Spoelstra (one of the very best coaches in the league IMO) was able to get more out of JR than RC was. I also think that JR just massively overperformed that year and he is just regressing to the mean.

It is looking that way, I am sorry to say. 

[KillerLeft]

I think his last year in MIA has been shown to be an outlier. I think Spoelstra (one of the very best coaches in the league IMO) was able to get more out of JR than RC was. I also think that JR just massively overperformed that year and he is just regressing to the mean.

I agree with this, but I ALSO think there's an unpredictable human element to all of this that we just can't make sense of, no matter how hard we try. 

Maybe there's something in Richardson that just changed forever when Miami traded him. Sometimes, people just fall out of love with doing stuff they're really into and stop going so hard. Stuff like that happens around us all the time in real life. It has probably happened TO all of us, at some point.

At the end of the day, all that matters is that the Richardson Dallas had this season is not a player who can help them in the way they need.

[mavsluvr]

Brunson has been good, really good imo for all that could be expected.  Yeah he's not your star.  He's small so he needs some protection out there from bigs. The Clips were definitely a tough matchup with their big athletic wing version of 'small ball' still being too big unless the other positions and provide cover for Jalen. 

Mark Jackson comments that "you don't want to have to ask your backup singers to sing lead".  Brunson did so well as a backup singer that maybe people started expected him to be lead, to play at an All star level against All stars.  Brunson looks good enough to be exceptional with the right support around him.

I like Brunson, and have admired the leaps he has taken in his career with the Mavs. And he may still have room to improve. 


I don't tend to agree with the contingent that thinks Brunson should be promoted to a regular starter, while acknowledging that it might work in some games. The fact that a guy is a great backup does not, as you point out, necessarily mean he will be a great starter. 

My area of concern with the playoffs is that he maybe can't even be a decent backup in that environment. Someone needs to be able to lead a Luka-less unit that does not get destroyed within a few minutes, and in this series, he wasn't able to manage that. Maybe this was just a particularly bad matchup for him. But, unfair as it may seem, size is a limiting factor in the NBA, as well as skill level. 

I am not advocating giving up on Jalen. But if his goal is to be an NBA starter, I'm not sure this is the right place. And I question whether he will be able to be relied on for much in the postseasons. 

You may well be right that better support around him would make a huge difference.

[mavsluvr]

I think Brunson hit his NBA ceiling really quickly and is basically already there. I think his lack of length and explosion have us looking at the best he will be. I hope I am wrong, but after this series I am not looking at him as a top playoff rotation guy.

I don't know if he has hit his ceiling, but I do fear that further improvements that he might make may not serve to materially increase his usefulness in a playoff environment. I guess time will tell.

[Kammrath]

Do you think he will opt in, frustrating this objective?

I do not. He skipped exit interviews, right? To me that says he is LONG gone and cannot wait to be in another situation. 

I could see him opting in with the intention that the Mavs trade him somewhere that he and his agent like.

[Kammrath]

they hyped him as an answer at the starting position, and not just as a guy they were taking a flyer on. I guess it's possible that was just PR, but I had the impression they were expecting more than they got. 

Yes they did. 

The Mavs always act like their new additions are the next greatest thing, so I assume it was hype. But maybe their scouting department REALLY thought that's what he was. RC sure TRIED, TRIED, TRIED to make it work. Way longer than I would have.