John Collins...Our Third Star

[StepBackJay]

I have a feeling Collins is going to regret turning down that extension. He is a good player with a high floor but to me his extension (4/90) is higher than he should be slotted. I would put him more in the 18-20 type range based on the fact that he's young and has an inside/outside game. He is definitely a high floor player but max money would be silly and even 22.5/yr seems too high to me.

[ItsGoTime]

I have a feeling Collins is going to regret turning down that extension. He is a good player with a high floor but to me his extension (4/90) is higher than he should be slotted. I would put him more in the 18-20 type range based on the fact that he's young and has an inside/outside game. He is definitely a high floor player but max money would be silly and even 22.5/yr seems too high to me.

For me it really depends on the surrounding plan. 

Are we trading KP somewhere? 

• If so, what are the returning pieces? Are we getting a higher end defender at C?
  

• If not, is he gonna be closer to the Capella defender that he could be next year? If so, I’m all for paying him as much as is needed to get Atl to not match and SnT him here.
  

Does JRich and/or THJ stay? 

• If the answer to either of those is yes, the path is pretty much unheard of to get him, but still doable if ATL really doesn’t want him, or really wants our trade package. (Kleber and opted in JRich?)
  
• If no, this is probably the best route to go as far as best assets. 
  

These would be the main questions in my mind. Not keeping these players gives a pretty clear path to getting him. I would love to end up trading KP and JB for Turner and Brogdon (3 team or not), then SnT for Collins with a Kleber based package, give the rMLE to Batum, min to Melli and Bradley and end up with:

MB/Bradley/TT
Luka/Green/Burke
DFS/Batum/Bey
Collins/Powell/Melli
Turner/WCS/Boban

That is a team that secures first round HCA. All 5 starters can hit a 3. Secondary ball handlers . No egos to speak of. Room to grow (youth) as well as spots to possibly tweak on the bench depending on how they play.

[StepBackJay]

I am confident THJ will be back, I think its basically a done deal.

KP is a huge wildcard, I really don't know what to think. I am like 50/50 he stays or goes at this point.

[cjeter24]

Why foul trouble is being used as an excuse?
It is actually worrisome defensively

I mean it's a bad game. He had a good game before. Anyone can get into foul trouble and have a bad game, especially bigs. 

The overreaction off one game is a bit absurd tho. I hope he continues to struggle tho in the playoffs and it really highlights the bad fit with Capela and thus ATL may be willing to move him or let him sign elsewhere.

[embellisher]

Question:

Is Lauri Markkannen that much different than John Collins? 

Sure where they operate is a bit different, Collins preferring an inside out approach, while Lauri earned his reputation as a lethal 3pt shooter. But in terms of talent are they that far off from each other?

Both are questionable defenders. Both are looking for a change of scenery. 1 seems a lot cheaper than the other though...

Is Markkannen a good rebounder? Can he rim roll? Does he set good screens?

[BasketballJones41]

Is Markkannen a good rebounder? Can he rim roll? Does he set good screens?

Yes to all 3.

[SleepingHero]

Is Markkannen a good rebounder? Can he rim roll? Does he set good screens?

I'd say he's a passable rebounder. He's not elite, but he isn't terrible. His TRB% would rank him around top 30 in the league. When he got starter minutes e averaged 9.0rpg

He can certainly rim roll looking at college/Bulls film. It's just that CHI doesn't really use him that way at all though. He ran the PnR 11% of the time this year in CHI which is pitifully low. He ranked in the 34th percentile. In fact in almost all of Markkannen's seasons with the Bulls the most he's ever run the PnR was about 15% of the time. But flashback to when he got starter minutes he was in the 55th percentile (close to WCS this year at 63rd). 

Needless to say I think CHI is misusing him big time there and that'd certainly change in Dallas.

Regarding screens he sets okay screens. In highlights/lowlights he does have a tendency to slip them and drift out, but again he barely runs the PnR. So a question mark.

After watching JC those 2 playoff games and off and on in the regular season, I'd put him and Markkannen pretty damn close to each other. I think Collins is a better finisher around the rim/roller. But Markkannen is hands down a better shooter. The major difference between them is that 1 is possibly available in a JRich SnT and the other is seeking a 4 year max deal. I think it's a no brainer which one the Mavs should prioritize if they're looking for that position.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

The issue with Lauri is the Mavs need 2 rim rollers.

Lauri, Maxi, KP: stretch guys

Powell would be the only rim roller

[embellisher]

The issue with Lauri is the Mavs need 2 rim rollers.

Lauri, Maxi, KP: stretch guys

Powell would be the only rim roller

And that's my concern as well. Lauri isn't any better of a rim roller than KP. Maybe not even as good. Not much better of a screen setter either. 

Even if we keep KP, we need either a defensive stud that can hit threes next to him, or a complete offensive player.

Collins defensive deficiencies aren't quite as big as Markkannen's, and he's an offensively complete big. He can hit the three, and can also play PNR or PNP with Luka. 

If Markkannen is worth $16M, then Collins is probably worth $22M. And to get a RFA you have to overpay, so the number is probably his max.

[SleepingHero]

The issue with Lauri is the Mavs need 2 rim rollers.

Lauri, Maxi, KP: stretch guys

Powell would be the only rim roller

That's a fair point and valid criticism behind the idea. However is it not out of this realm to think Lauri could learn to be a roller?  I mean screen setting/rolling is a fundamental skill and isn't necessarily hard. It just takes time. I wonder how an offseason/training camp focusing on that would do for Lauri.

Further I don't think Lauri and KP would play all that much together due to overlapping skillsets (though KP does like the 5 so who knows?). A more realistic partner would be Maxi. And Maxi does know how to set screens and roll. So Lauri would basically be replacing Maxi on offense as a stretch 4 and I don't see how that's a negative given that Lauri is an elite shooter (defense be damned).

[Dundalis]

I would go after Markannen, and then actively look to trade KP. He should be much more gettable than Collins, either in a SnT or RFA offer, plus Collins is basically almost fully utilised to show off his full skillset, whereas Markannen's skillset is being significantly suppressed to where his production can skyrocket in the right setting IMO. I think he's a 7 foot Klay Thompson minus the defense in the right system. I think he's athletic enough with the right energy to absolutely be a proficient rim roller also.

[omahen]

I would go after Markannen, and then actively look to trade KP. He should be much more gettable than Collins, either in a SnT or RFA offer, plus Collins is basically almost fully utilised to show off his full skillset, whereas Markannen's skillset is being significantly suppressed to where his production can skyrocket in the right setting IMO. I think he's a 7 foot Klay Thompson minus the defense in the right system. I think he's athletic enough with the right energy to absolutely be a proficient rim roller also.

Most of us thought KP will be a monster player in Mavs system. Most of us thought Wright will thrive with Mavs, but reality showed he was just basically same player as everywhere else. Most of us thought JRich will explode in Dallas, yet he is basically same guy he was in other teams. So I wouldn't really build everything on a hope someone who has been very average for several years will suddenly turn into an all star. Markkanen sure has potential and I might even see the move in a sense to increase asset base, but I would never see him as a final piece of the puzzle or a franchise cornerstone.

[KillerLeft]

Most of us thought KP will be a monster player in Mavs system. Most of us thought Wright will thrive with Mavs, but reality showed he was just basically same player as everywhere else. Most of us thought JRich will explode in Dallas, yet he is basically same guy he was in other teams. So I wouldn't really build everything on a hope someone who has been very average for several years will suddenly turn into an all star. Markkanen sure has potential and I might even see the move in a sense to increase asset base, but I would never see him as a final piece of the puzzle or a franchise cornerstone.

While it's true that some players do better in different systems or environments, and it's also true that Carlisle has a loooooong history of taking other teams' flameouts and polishing them into gems here in Dallas, I think the above is extremely wise and something we should all actively try to let sink in, mentally.

[juanc]

I hope you guys are watching our third star today! A normal max contract is to low, let's somehow pay him a supermax!

On the serious note, I would love to get Hunter on the Mavs.

[MFFL]

22 points on 10 shots plus 8 rebounds. Let the masses sing his praises!

[StepBackJay]

22 points on 10 shots plus 8 rebounds. Let the masses sing his praises!

We sort of need him to struggle. At this rate I will be surprised if he's on the market this summer.

[MFFL]

I wouldn't throw money at any player who cannot create his own shot

[dynamicalVoid]

I wouldn't throw money at any player who cannot create his own shot

I hope everyone on this board reads your post.   

I scream constantly on this board that Mavs need more basketball players.   Guys that know how to dribble, pass, have good shot mechanics, seem like the have a decent feel for the game.   But guys being able to create their own shot is pretty much what I mean.  

We have a bunch of guys that seem like they have been playing basketball for a couple of years....not born with a basketball in their hands.   And thats what we need.   Not a bunch of one dimensional players.

And...why does it seem like other teams pass the ball around more?  Or...can pass the ball around and get a bucket?  Is it our scheme?  Our lack of playmakers?  Heliocentric offense?  Something seems off in the scheme even though we had best offense ever last year and second half of season we were looking good.

[khaled1987]

If we get beaten next 2 games,  I am all for giving CP3 3 years contract if he opt out.
Too old maybe, but he commands respect , he will move Luka to two and move us away from heliocentric offense.

[dynamicalVoid]

If we get beaten next 2 games,  I am all for giving CP3 3 years contract if he opt out.
Too old maybe, but he commands respect , he will move Luka to two and move us away from heliocentric offense.

I hate to say this about someone I dont know at all...but Chris Paul scares me in a way I cant really describe.  I guess I dont trust him.

I can see him doing the Rondo bit on us.

Get paid...then maybe really lose a step and then just kind of not care anymore because he knows the game has passed him.  I would hate for that to be on our books.

Maybe 3 years isnt a big deal and we could absorb it.   Also...does Chris Paul really need extreme athleticism to produce?  Seems like even if he lost a step he could still produce