2026-2027 DAL Wins Prediction | Vegas Line: 34.5

[Smitty]

How many games will the Dallas Mavericks win this year?

[KillerLeft]

It's difficult to feel confident with ranges of only two games, but I chose 37-38. That's a tad more optimistic than my true feelings, but hey - I'm a fan of the team.

[Scott41theMavs]

47+. My precise prediction is higher, so I’m kind of sniggering that I can get off with such an amorphous commitment.

[Smitty]

It's easy to say that win totals depend on the health of your best players, but it's true. In the end, I think Kyrie's games played (for the Mavs) is the single biggest X-factor for wins and losses for this group. If Kyrie plays in 60+ games (for the Mavs), this team has a chance to flirt with .500. That's just how the roster is structured to start the year. No other difference making guards. Who knows if he'll get traded at the deadline. Making a prediction is actually difficult this year.

I'll say that Kyrie doesn't get traded and plays in at least 60 games because like KL... I'm a fan of the team.


The '26-'27 Dallas Mavericks will win 39-40 games.


I'm feeling optimistic as the season nears.

[Smitty]

47+. My precise prediction is higher, so I’m kind of sniggering that I can get off with such an amorphous commitment.

Ha. I copied and pasted this exact thread/poll format from the great Kammrath. You can thank him the next time you see him.

[michaeltex]

My target is 42 and I'd like to think I'm being conservative.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

If Kyrie is healthy for the most part, I'd go 38.5.

So mid 30s I think is a good over under taking into account the injury probability.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

There's a small chance both Kyrie and Lively end up playing a good bit and Flagg turns into a top 10 player. That's the outcome I'm rooting for but not sure how likely it is all 3 of those things happen.

[Chicagojk]

I think 37-38.   At the moment, I am not worried about wins.  I just want to see good basketball again with a clear sign that progress is being made.   If we see that, things could turn around quickly whether it is this year or next year.

[dirkfansince1998]

I think 37-38.   At the moment, I am not worried about wins.  I just want to see good basketball again with a clear sign that progress is being made.   If we see that, things could turn around quickly whether it is this year or next year.

This. It's about development. Would rather wins a few games less and see more of the younger guys instead of squeezing the max amount of wins out of a roster that clearly isn't good enough for a playoff run anyway.

[ballsrchr]

Well...I'm an optimistic Mavs fan...BUT I try to temper that with a bit of intelligence. Mainly because all I've got is a "bit" of intelligence. At the beginning of summer I figured the Mavs would win 35 games. As we get closer to the season I'm now at 39 to 40 games. By the time the season starts I'll probably be at an optimistic Mavs homer 45 games. Ah, but then I'll fall back to earth. It can't be as bad as it has been...can it?

[ballsrchr]

double post

[Smitty]

This. It's about development. Would rather wins a few games less and see more of the younger guys instead of squeezing the max amount of wins out of a roster that clearly isn't good enough for a playoff run anyway.

Meh. Nobody but Kyrie is ‘old’ by NBA standards on this team. Klay was a progress stopper, but they fixed that this summer. Martin is the only other guy over 28 years old, and nobody expects him to play much. May the best guys get the most playing time... Try to win the game. The “young guys” will benefit by not developing bad habits that come with lots of losing.

[dirkfansince1998]

Meh. Nobody but Kyrie is ‘old’ by NBA standards on this team. Klay was a progress stopper, but they fixed that this summer. Martin is the only other guy over 28 years old, and nobody expects him to play much. May the best guys get the most playing time... Try to win the game. The “young guys” will benefit by not developing bad habits that come with lots of losing.

I think the bad habits stuff is overrated. Some organizations never had issues like this even when they were tanking (OKC, Spurs). Some don't have a clue (Hornets, Kings). But to get back on topic. I wouldn't be the biggest fan of a minutes distribution that heavily relies on Naji, PJ and Gaff over the younger options even though that's the most likely scenario. Wanted to move on from at least one of them in the offseason for a reason. And I really don't want to run Kyrie into the ground just to win meaningless games (in the bigger picture) in november. 
Doesn't mean that they should just play young guys for the sake of it but I hope they find a way to integrate more and more of them into the rotation as the season progresses.

For me this season is a win if Flagg takes the next step and the Mavs identify/develop 2-3 guys on his timeline that can form the core of his supporting cast.

[Smitty]

I think the bad habits stuff is overrated. Some organizations never had issues like this even when they were tanking (OKC, Spurs). Some don't have a clue (Hornets, Kings). But to get back on topic. I wouldn't be the biggest fan of a minutes distribution that heavily relies on Naji, PJ and Gaff over the younger options even though that's the most likely scenario. Wanted to move on from at least one of them in the offseason for a reason. And I really don't want to run Kyrie into the ground just to win meaningless games (in the bigger picture) in november. 
Doesn't mean that they should just play young guys for the sake of it but I hope they find a way to integrate more and more of them into the rotation as the season progresses.

For me this season is a win if Flagg takes the next step and the Mavs identify/develop 2-3 guys on his timeline that can form the core of his supporting cast.

I think there were bad habits formed just last season. The players that returned said as much. Effort wasn’t there either. I completely disagree with your stance on ‘preference to win less games by playing an inferior 22 year old instead of a 27 year old’. I think this team overall is young and by default “young guys” will play plenty. 

I don’t think a single Mavs fan will disagree with your last statement there. We all want 2-3-4-5 guys that they’ve added to hit. Playing time should, and mostly likely will, have to be earned. I hope May and Co. will have a good problem on their hands. Trying to find PT for several worthy guys.

[CooPerFan]

48 wins. Playoff team

[OldMavsFan]

I would actually have picked 39 to 42, but went with 41 to 42.  I tend to think the first month will be very hard, but I can see them coming on when after the first of year and with no reason to lose games and a shot at the playoffs they will make up for some of the poor start.

[OldMavsFan]

I would actually have picked 39 to 42, but went with 41 to 42.  I tend to think the first month will be very hard, but I can see them coming on when after the first of year and with no reason to lose games and a shot at the playoffs they will make up for some of the poor start.

[JamesConway816]

It's difficult to feel confident with ranges of only two games, but I chose 37-38. That's a tad more optimistic than my true feelings, but hey - I'm a fan of the team.

I had them at 34 last season, I think that is my pick again this year.

Fun & interesting players at almost all positions but also a lot of new / fringe NBA guys on the roster. It will take time to figure out the rotation and I seriously question the halfcourt offense on this squad whenever Kyrie is not on the court which will probably be the case for a good chunk of the season again.

Also the NBA is absurdly talented. Just looking at the Houston starters the other day with Durant, Sengun, Thompson, just to name a few. It is not easy to win 40 games in the NBA.

I also wonder how much the new tanking rules will impact rotations. Last season it was an absurd race to the bottom with teams running out scrub lineups left and right and sitting guys for months at times. I don’t expect that to happen again.

[Dirknows]

35-36 and we secure a top-2 pick and send Charlotte a 2nd rounder.