Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[HoosierDaddyKid]

This one makes even less sense than Kuminga, imho. Lakers have 16 players under contract already. Signing a FA would mean they would need to cut 2 players (unless there are takers for guys like Knecht, LaRavia, Bronny or Vando). Biggest Lakers need is a SF/PF starter type of player. Brown is 6-4 and while he plays bigger than his size, I am not convinced. They have Grimes, Carr, Thybulle and Williams at SG/SF position that should probably get more minutes than Brown. They also have a couple of meh SF/PF types already in Vando and LaRavia and with Thiero looking for developmental minutes. I don't think Brown is really better than those guys.

Good call. I don't see a fit either, unless they look at him as a Marcus Smart type of replacement. I just think the Lakers find a way to induce headlines, good, bad, or indifferent. The sibling fight for control of the shares, is just the latest drama involving them.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Jake Weinbach
@JWeinbachNBA

A trade idea between the Lakers, Mavericks, and Bulls:

• Lakers
PJ Washington

• Mavericks
Jaden Hardy
Adou Thiero
2032 first-round pick swap (via LAL)
2032 second-round pick (via WAS from LAL)

• Bulls
Jake LaRavia (via RMLE)


It is a 2032 swap instead of the outright pick.  Thiero is a project, but maybe one that fits what they like?

Something like this would mark a pivot point in some ways.  With Washington, Dallas can field 10-11 players with NBA experience without having to get any minutes from any of the babies.  Trade someone like PJ and you start to open room for Morez and it feels more developmental than if you roll with what you have currently.

[Chicagojk]

Jake Weinbach
@JWeinbachNBA

A trade idea between the Lakers, Mavericks, and Bulls:

• Lakers
PJ Washington

• Mavericks
Jaden Hardy
Adou Thiero
2032 first-round pick swap (via LAL)
2032 second-round pick (via WAS from LAL)

• Bulls
Jake LaRavia (via RMLE)


It is a 2032 swap instead of the outright pick.  Thiero is a project, but maybe one that fits what they like?

Something like this would mark a pivot point in some ways.  With Washington, Dallas can field 10-11 players with NBA experience without having to get any minutes from any of the babies.  Trade someone like PJ and you start to open room for Morez and it feels more developmental than if you roll with what you have currently.

I am having trouble figuring out the value of PJ.    That Lakers value seems weak though, right?  Dallas very well may have a better pick than LAL in 2032.    Thiero is an interesting long range project but not sure that excites me.

PJ is a good player.  PJ had a off year this year.  What we have seen this summer is teams have been shying away from guys with long contracts.   PJ is set to make 19, 21, 22 and 24 over the next four years.    How he played last year, that would be a big overpay imo.   Him getting off to a hot start would seem to be important.  Is there enough minutes to let him play big minutes to make a strong case for him?  I am not sure I see him here in 2 years.   Could it be sooner?   If he doesn't play better this year, is he really hard to move?    I thought it would have been easier to bring him off the bench last year.  This year it seems less likey that he doesn't start imo.

[Mavs2021]

I am having trouble figuring out the value of PJ.    That Lakers value seems weak though, right?

It´s completely moronic. If I created a Twitter account and made up a rumour about Luka coming back in 2028 due to him still texting wth Kyrie it would have more credibility.

[omahen]

It´s completely moronic. If I created a Twitter account and made up a rumour about Luka coming back in 2028 due to him still texting wth Kyrie it would have more credibility.

First a disclaimer, repeating myself, that I don't believe there is interest in this move on any side. I can also agree that valuation seems light in this case, especially as I am not very high on Thiero (he is extremely athletic but very raw). 

However, I think the claim that such valuation is moronic is completely simplified. The situation regarding the overall valuations has shifted dramatically in the apron world. Both valuations of player value and valuations of draft capital. Even in the salary dumps we rarely saw the taking team being able to get any draft assets.

Only the following players signed contracts higher than 20 per this season: Young, Reaves, Kessler, Hartenstein, Coby White, Dosunmu, Watson, Powell and McCollumn (last two with only one guaranteed year). Everyone else is at MLE level or lower. Hachimura or Collins are probably a similar level of players than Pj and they both signed for considerably less. It seems you can only get higher money if you are a top 3 player on a team, rest play for MLE or less. PJ is and would not be a top three player on his team.

Similar is for trades. Most of the action was for players on expiring deals. Minnesota paid BKN to take Randle. Claxton went to Chicago for free. There is little evidence that such contracts as Washington has have higher value on the current market. 

The remaining question is, if there is higher value for Mavs. Also here the answer is not simple. Mavs have sort of a logjam at center and power forward and seemingly a not great mix of established vets like Gafford and PJ on hefty salaries and up and coming young talent (Lively, Morez) in need of (serious) minutes. If you want Washington to keep his value, he needs to play heavy minutes (and be productive). If not, his valuation will drop. But if he plays heavy minutes, than there are limited minutes for young talent. 

I think if a FRP would be on the table for PJ (or Gafford), they would be traded already. It seems to me, no one is offering it.

[KillerLeft]

I think if a FRP would be on the table for PJ (or Gafford), they would be traded already. It seems to me, no one is offering it.

Agreed. Tough to get more obvious than that. I guess we should amend this to read "so far" at the end, but I'm not sure offers are likely to get better for either player.

[SleepingHero]

Jake Weinbach
@JWeinbachNBA

A trade idea between the Lakers, Mavericks, and Bulls:

• Lakers
PJ Washington

• Mavericks
Jaden Hardy
Adou Thiero
2032 first-round pick swap (via LAL)
2032 second-round pick (via WAS from LAL)

• Bulls
Jake LaRavia (via RMLE)


It is a 2032 swap instead of the outright pick.  Thiero is a project, but maybe one that fits what they like?

Something like this would mark a pivot point in some ways.  With Washington, Dallas can field 10-11 players with NBA experience without having to get any minutes from any of the babies.  Trade someone like PJ and you start to open room for Morez and it feels more developmental than if you roll with what you have currently.

This might be one of the worst fake trades I've seen of all time.

[F Gump]

Jake Weinbach
@JWeinbachNBA

A trade idea between the Lakers, Mavericks, and Bulls:

• Lakers
PJ Washington

• Mavericks
Jaden Hardy
Adou Thiero
2032 first-round pick swap (via LAL)
2032 second-round pick (via WAS from LAL)

• Bulls
Jake LaRavia (via RMLE)


It is a 2032 swap instead of the outright pick.  Thiero is a project, but maybe one that fits what they like?

Something like this would mark a pivot point in some ways.  With Washington, Dallas can field 10-11 players with NBA experience without having to get any minutes from any of the babies.  Trade someone like PJ and you start to open room for Morez and it feels more developmental than if you roll with what you have currently.

I see this as an absurdly low value for PJW, almost a giveaway. Just junk, not a single real asset. No interest whatsoever.

[ACMFFL]

First a disclaimer, repeating myself, that I don't believe there is interest in this move on any side. I can also agree that valuation seems light in this case, especially as I am not very high on Thiero (he is extremely athletic but very raw). 

However, I think the claim that such valuation is moronic is completely simplified. The situation regarding the overall valuations has shifted dramatically in the apron world. Both valuations of player value and valuations of draft capital. Even in the salary dumps we rarely saw the taking team being able to get any draft assets.

Only the following players signed contracts higher than 20 per this season: Young, Reaves, Kessler, Hartenstein, Coby White, Dosunmu, Watson, Powell and McCollumn (last two with only one guaranteed year). Everyone else is at MLE level or lower. Hachimura or Collins are probably a similar level of players than Pj and they both signed for considerably less. It seems you can only get higher money if you are a top 3 player on a team, rest play for MLE or less. PJ is and would not be a top three player on his team.

Similar is for trades. Most of the action was for players on expiring deals. Minnesota paid BKN to take Randle. Claxton went to Chicago for free. There is little evidence that such contracts as Washington has have higher value on the current market. 

The remaining question is, if there is higher value for Mavs. Also here the answer is not simple. Mavs have sort of a logjam at center and power forward and seemingly a not great mix of established vets like Gafford and PJ on hefty salaries and up and coming young talent (Lively, Morez) in need of (serious) minutes. If you want Washington to keep his value, he needs to play heavy minutes (and be productive). If not, his valuation will drop. But if he plays heavy minutes, than there are limited minutes for young talent. 

I think if a FRP would be on the table for PJ (or Gafford), they would be traded already. It seems to me, no one is offering it.

It could also mean that Masai has no interest in trading PJ while his value is at an all-time low; perhaps he believes PJ could be more useful to the Mavs than questionable draft compensation and end-of-bench players..

Unlike Brooklyn and Minnesota—who were in a rush to move salary—the Mavs have no reason to part with PJ just for the sake of it.
Even in the current aprons era, teams don't hesitate to allocate 12% of the cap to their fourth or fifth-best player; if PJ returns to his previous form, he could easily attract more appealing offers than he currently does.

On paper, the Mavs have a crowded frontcourt, but that assumes Lively is healthy and ready to play. Until then, there is plenty of room for both veterans and young talents:

20 Gafford, 20 Aldama, 5 Morez, 3 PJ
27 PJ, 15 Morez, 4 Aldama, 2 Flagg
24 Flagg, 24 Marshall
24 Christie, 24 Risacher
30 Irving, 12 De Larrea, 6 Flagg

[Jym]

It could also mean that Masai has no interest in trading PJ while his value is at an all-time low; perhaps he believes PJ could be more useful to the Mavs than questionable draft compensation and end-of-bench players..

Unlike Brooklyn and Minnesota—who were in a rush to move salary—the Mavs have no reason to part with PJ just for the sake of it.
Even in the current aprons era, teams don't hesitate to allocate 12% of the cap to their fourth or fifth-best player; if PJ returns to his previous form, he could easily attract more appealing offers than he currently does.

On paper, the Mavs have a crowded frontcourt, but that assumes Lively is healthy and ready to play. Until then, there is plenty of room for both veterans and young talents:

20 Gafford, 20 Aldama, 5 Morez, 3 PJ
27 PJ, 15 Morez, 4 Aldama, 2 Flagg
24 Flagg, 24 Marshall
24 Christie, 24 Risacher
30 Irving, 12 De Larrea, 6 Flagg

Yeah that Marshall extension was pretty dang dumb

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The Cleveland Cavaliers waived and stretched Cameron Whitmore's contract. He'll earn $1,819,437 for the next three seasons.

HoopsHype

[HoosierDaddyKid]

After the Heat picked up Nick Richards on a veteran’s minimum contract on Thursday, the list of free- agent big men became even shorter and bleaker. The most significant option for the Lakers could be Dwight Powell, the 6-10, 35-year-old big man who was teammates with Doncic for 6 ½ seasons in Dallas. Notably, Powell has played the most games as a teammate alongside Doncic (389) among the 98 players Doncic has played alongside in his eight-year NBA career. Besides Powell, the other realistic options are veteran journeymen Drew Eubanks, Bismack Biyombo, and Mason Plumlee — demonstrating the lack of quality big man free-agent targets.

New York Post

[omahen]

Even in the current aprons era, teams don't hesitate to allocate 12% of the cap to their fourth or fifth-best player; 

On paper, the Mavs have a crowded frontcourt, but that assumes Lively is healthy and ready to play. Until then, there is plenty of room for both veterans and young talents:

20 Gafford, 20 Aldama, 5 Morez, 3 PJ
27 PJ, 15 Morez, 4 Aldama, 2 Flagg
24 Flagg, 24 Marshall
24 Christie, 24 Risacher
30 Irving, 12 De Larrea, 6 Flagg

Please provide examples of teams not hesitating to spend 20 mil for their fourt or fifth best player. I don't see many around and have provided plenty of examples to the contrary.

Yes, with Lively out there are minutes available. But with Lively in, that chart you provided gets wrong. You also put zero minutes for Sasser and Biberovic, both this years acquisitions.

[omahen]

After the Heat picked up Nick Richards on a veteran’s minimum contract on Thursday, the list of free- agent big men became even shorter and bleaker.  The most significant option for the Lakers could be Dwight Powell, the 6-10, 35-year-old big man who was teammates with Doncic for 6 ½ seasons in Dallas. Notably, Powell has played the most games as a teammate alongside Doncic (389) among the 98 players Doncic has played alongside in his eight-year NBA career.  Besides Powell, the other realistic options are veteran journeymen Drew Eubanks, Bismack Biyombo, and Mason Plumlee — demonstrating the lack of quality big man free-agent targets.

New York Post

Lakers depth at center is Kessler, Mamu and Looney. I don't see Mamu playing wing next to Luka. He was mainly playing center for Toronto. Not sure why Lakers would so desperately need another center. 

As with the example of Brown, getting another free agent makes zero sense for Lakers, who already have 16 players on the roster. Unless there are takers for the likes of Knecht, Vando or Hardy.

[ACMFFL]

Please provide examples of teams not hesitating to spend 20 mil for their fourt or fifth best player. I don't see many around and have provided plenty of examples to the contrary.

Yes, with Lively out there are minutes available. But with Lively in, that chart you provided gets wrong. You also put zero minutes for Sasser and Biberovic, both this years acquisitions.

Actually there are plenty of examples that prove teams are still willing to spend around 12% of the cap for their 4th or 5th best player.
ATL: Daniels (15.2%)
CLE: Watson (12.4%)
DEN: Braun (13.1%)
HOU: Jabari (14.3%)
IND: Nembhard (11.9%), Neismith (11%)*
MIN: Dosunmu (11.7%)
NOP: Herb (12%)*
NYK: Hart (12.7%)
ORL: WCJ (11%)
OKC: Hartenstein (14%), Caruso (11.9%)
POR: Camara (11%), Sharpe (12.2%)
SAS: Vassell (16.7%)


Well, that's a 10-men depth chart, 
Sasser and Biberovic are end of the bench players at the moment, the fact that they are new signings doesn't automatically mean they will have guaranteed playing time. I mean, they won't get it even if Dallas trades PJ for nothing. After all, the same applies to all the Lakers' new arrivals: not everyone of them will make the rotation when all healthy. 
And, as I’ve already said, Lively needs to prove he is physically healthy before he can be counted on.
When everyone will be available, I think it's Gafford the odd man out, more than PJ.

Also we are acting like injuries don't happen, I mean over the past two years all of Gafford, Lively, Washington, Aldama and Irving averaged less than 60 games per season
57 Washington 
56 Gafford
54 Aldama
25 Irving (58 games if we count the two seasons before ACL)
22 Lively

[omahen]

Actually there are plenty of examples that prove teams are still willing to spend around 12% of the cap for their 4th or 5th best player.
ATL: Daniels (15.2%)
CLE: Watson (12.4%)
DEN: Braun (13.1%)
HOU: Jabari (14.3%)
IND: Nembhard (11.9%), Neismith (11%)*
MIN: Dosunmu (11.7%)
NOP: Herb (12%)*
NYK: Hart (12.7%)
ORL: WCJ (11%)
OKC: Hartenstein (14%), Caruso (11.9%)
POR: Camara (11%), Sharpe (12.2%)
SAS: Vassell (16.7%)


Well, that's a 10-men depth chart, 
Sasser and Biberovic are end of the bench players at the moment, the fact that they are new signings doesn't automatically mean they will have guaranteed playing time. I mean, they won't get it even if Dallas trades PJ for nothing. After all, the same applies to all the Lakers' new arrivals: not everyone of them will make the rotation when all healthy. 
And, as I’ve already said, Lively needs to prove he is physically healthy before he can be counted on.
When everyone will be available, I think it's Gafford the odd man out, more than PJ.

Also we are acting like injuries don't happen, I mean over the past two years all of Gafford, Lively, Washington, Aldama and Irving averaged less than 60 games per season
57 Washington 
56 Gafford
54 Aldama
25 Irving (58 games if we count the two seasons before ACL)
22 Lively

Some of those examples are coming from times when aprons didn't yet hit in full extent. Braun, WCj, Vassel. More importantly, majority of the guys you listed were very young with a lot of potential at times when they signed their current deal. Daniels, Vassell, Watson, Jabari, Nembhard, Herb, Camara, Sharpe for example. 

I think this summer has seen a drastic shift as I listed in the original post. Watson and Dosunmu are rare examples of contracts above MLE for players that are not stars. Watson is 23 and had a great season. Dosunmu is perhaps a lone example of a veteran "role player" getting serious long term money this summer. He had great season, but is still like fourth or fifth player on a good team. Minny will have problems, as they are very top heavy in their salaries. With their picks mostly traded away, it will be very difficult for them to sustain depth behind the top 5 guys. I think they might regret that contract. Unless of course they win it all  

How many of those contracts you listed would you see as having a positive value? Daniels at 25 mil when he can't shoot at all? Braun we all agree is one of the worst deals in the league based on his last season. Herb at 20 mil after last two seasons? Great defender but injured a lot and doesn't provide much more than defense. Sharpe, one of most inefficient players with no defense? Vassell is a perfectly good wing, but at 26 mil?

[Dirknows]

I see this as an absurdly low value for PJW, almost a giveaway. Just junk, not a single real asset. No interest whatsoever.

I mean I saw a fake trade proposal with us DET and GS where we send out Kyrie, PJ and Naji for Ron Holland, Daniss Jenkins, Podz, Moody, Duncan Robinson and a 2028 first from Detroit. Just a slow time of year for the NBA not much to talk about besides made up trade proposals.

[ACMFFL]

Some of those examples are coming from times when aprons didn't yet hit in full extent. Braun, WCj, Vassel. More importantly, majority of the guys you listed were very young with a lot of potential at times when they signed their current deal. Daniels, Vassell, Watson, Jabari, Nembhard, Herb, Camara, Sharpe for example. 
I think this summer has seen a drastic shift as I listed in the original post. Watson and Dosunmu are rare examples of contracts above MLE for players that are not stars. Watson is 23 and had a great season. Dosunmu is perhaps a lone example of a veteran "role player" getting serious long term money this summer. He had great season, but is still like fourth or fifth player on a good team. Minny will have problems, as they are very top heavy in their salaries. With their picks mostly traded away, it will be very difficult for them to sustain depth behind the top 5 guys. I think they might regret that contract. Unless of course they win it all  
How many of those contracts you listed would you see as having a positive value? Daniels at 25 mil when he can't shoot at all? Braun we all agree is one of the worst deals in the league based on his last season. Herb at 20 mil after last two seasons? Great defender but injured a lot and doesn't provide much more than defense. Sharpe, one of most inefficient players with no defense? Vassell is a perfectly good wing, but at 26 mil?

Actually all the players I listed signed their contracts after the new CBA had already come into effect (July 2023), Vassell/WCJ/Braun included. Younger for sure but many of them are less proven too.
Well, the question was whether teams still felt comfortable allocating 12% of the salary cap to their fourth- or fifth-best player—not whether they would regret it later—and, in fact, that is precisely the case. Teams are still doing it even in the most recent years (Ayo, Watson, IHart, Coby, Allen, Turner, Braun, Camara, etc) 
I think it said more about the lackluster quality of FA nowadays. Both IHart and Coby signed contracts well above the MLE and they are not star players, maybe a bit more impactful overall than PJ but they also make more money than him.
Also value ain't static, some of the players I listed could improve their value over the course of the season.

And back to the PJ topic, how could questionable draft compensation and end-of-the-bench players help the Mavs this season..?

[F Gump]

Actually all the players I listed signed their contracts after the new CBA had already come into effect (July 2023), Vassell/WCJ/Braun included. Younger for sure but many of them are less proven too.
Well, the question was whether teams still felt comfortable allocating 12% of the salary cap to their fourth- or fifth-best player—not whether they would regret it later—and, in fact, that is precisely the case. Teams are still doing it even in the most recent years (Ayo, Watson, IHart, Coby, Allen, Turner, Braun, Camara, etc) 
I think it said more about the lackluster quality of FA nowadays. Both IHart and Coby signed contracts well above the MLE and they are not star players, maybe a bit more impactful overall than PJ but they also make more money than him.
Also value ain't static, some of the players I listed could improve their value over the course of the season.

And back to the PJ topic, how could questionable draft compensation and end-of-the-bench players help the Mavs this season..?

Your point is great, and well-proven. Thank you. And the claim that we don't have a real view of how teams want to work a payroll under the 2nd apron limits is utter nonsense - this is year FOUR of this CBA and as you wisely note, most deals on today's payrolls were made since then. 

I've written a lot about payroll limits, but to me the problem deals are the ones where you pay a non-star the max, or most of it, when he's clearly not that caliber and doesn't have realistic potential to get there. When you can pay a solid starter role with a salary within MLE + 20%, I think you're GM-ing in the right ballpark financially. Just have to be smart and selective.

[omahen]

And back to the PJ topic, how could questionable draft compensation and end-of-the-bench players help the Mavs this season..?

Please re-read my disclaimer in the initial post  I don't think this move is on the table. I was only discussing the value of role players on 20 per or higher contracts. 

While I do agree that that specific case seems light, I guess the argument the author made is not about this season. There are several positive outlooks, that have a lot to do with how you value the specific player and long-term situation:
- Mavs save huge money. If you see that contract as a negative, that is certainly a plus. It brings more flexibility moving forward. The saving doesn't help this season as it is not needed, but it does help in the future
- Mavs open minutes for other guys in their otherwise forward heavy line-up. This would help improve their value. As currently constructed, Mavs would have a sort of imbalance on the roster, that would result also in playing players out of their natural positions
- one could also argue, that PJ value will further decrease if Mavs decide to play Morez more at the four. It is not like PJ will be expiring after this season, he will still have 3 years left on his deal, will be a year older,...
- Pick swap is basically a lottery ticket. Who knows where Lakers and Mavs will be in 2032, totally subjective. Luka, if he is still on the team, will be 33 at that time. Flagg will be in his early prime. So one could hope that Mavs are much better than Lakers then. Perhaps you are lucky, and Lakers really suck. Teams like OKC with several lottery tickets like that, tend to hit on (some of) them on a regular basis. Of course you can also be more pesimistic and claim that Lakers are always good and their pick swap is worthless.