Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[mvossman]

I keep seeing this frequently online in different places where people are automatically putting PJ in the can't shoot category. Yet he's a career 35.4% shooter, and only shot below 34.8% from deep twice in his 7 year career. I know two of them have come in the last 3 seasons, but the fact is he's a better career shooter than someone most are putting in the shooters category, in Santi Aldama, and has had multiple seasons above 37%, where Aldama hasn't had one.

I know there's issues where we were seeing PJ not really passing to Coop much, but I think that's at least partially a coaching/system issue and also possibly a Coop being a rookie issue, where he's now the proven, established star alongside Kyrie (Luka had similar issues his rookie season with some of the experienced vets not giving him the ball). I'm not really ready to write PJ off as a non shooter, when the bulk of his career he's been fine from deep. Especially now that he should have an easier time getting open shots with Kyrie back than he did last season. I also expect him to be given a more defined role on offense, now that we have a coach who actually has an actual interest in implementing one.

I don't think Aldama is a huge upgrade over PJ shooting, but he does shoot roughly the same percentage on higher volume.  He is also a better playmaker (but worse defender).  The forward spot is looking really crowded on this roster and PJ is the only high minutes guy this org hasn't invested in.  He seems like the odd man out.

[F Gump]

I don't put stock in the our guy, not our guy narrative.

All of them are MAV assets, of varying values. MM want the best team, not the MM team. They will want to keep the best values rather than the ones they necessarily added.

See Flagg, C and Irving, K. and also MU track record.

[mvossman]

I don't put stock in the our guy, not our guy narrative.

All of them are MAV assets, of varying values. MM want the best team, not the MM team. They will want to keep the best values rather than the ones they necessarily added.

See Flagg, C and Irving, K. and also MU track record.

MU track record has been to trade away a big name on his new team within less than a year.  Not surprisingly that was not somebody he drafted, traded for or extended.  Its not a crazy assumption that if he does trade away somebody, it probably won't be somebody he has recently invested in.

[Dundalis]

I don't think Aldama is a huge upgrade over PJ shooting, but he does shoot roughly the same percentage on higher volume.  He is also a better playmaker (but worse defender).  The forward spot is looking really crowded on this roster and PJ is the only high minutes guy this org hasn't invested in.  He seems like the odd man out.

Their volume is pretty similar though, its like 0.7 extra shots taken per 36 by Aldama over their careers. PJ shot less volume the last two years, but he's shot much higher volumes in prior years with success. And yeah, Aldama is def a more versatile offensive player than PJ. It's just that a lot of discourse around PJ seems to infer he's a terrible shooter, while Aldama is universally regarded as someone who was brought in to help Coop with spacing. I just find it a bit odd, when their shooting history paints a pretty similar picture.

I don't really have any way to measure whether the org has or hasn't invested in PJ, given he's already on a long term contract, other than him being in trade rumors. Which Im fine with if they get a suitable return. But I'd value him as a solid shooter and spacer, who plays very good switchable defense 1-4, which I think is pretty damn valuable. And if we are getting offers treating him like a guy whos a space clogger purely on last years numbers, then I'd let him try and rehabilitate his value if they want to get off his contract later on.

[mvossman]

Their volume is pretty similar though, its like 0.7 extra shots taken per 36 by Aldama over their careers. PJ shot less volume the last two years, but he's shot much higher volumes in prior years with success. And yeah, Aldama is def a more versatile offensive player than PJ. It's just that a lot of discourse around PJ seems to infer he's a terrible shooter, while Aldama is universally regarded as someone who was brought in to help Coop with spacing. I just find it a bit odd, when their shooting history paints a pretty similar picture.

I don't really have any way to measure whether the org has or hasn't invested in PJ, given he's already on a long term contract, other than him being in trade rumors. Which Im fine with if they get a suitable return. But I'd value him as a solid shooter and spacer, who plays very good switchable defense 1-4, which I think is pretty damn valuable. And if we are getting offers treating him like a guy whos a space clogger purely on last years numbers, then I'd let him try and rehabilitate his value if they want to get off his contract later on.

Agree with pretty much all of this.  I think there is a reason we have heard rumors of Gafford and PJ on the trading block and nothing on Kyrie or Naji.  I'm not worried that Masai is going to get a bad return for PJ.  If anything, his history indicates he has a tendency to set the price too high and wait too long to sell.  I'm on the fence whether PJ is likely to rehabilitate his value this coming season.  As it stands (assuming Klay is gone) there will be a roster crunch and given the need for shooting and creation, he might find his minutes getting cut.

[Mavs2021]

MU track record has been to trade away a big name on his new team within less than a year.  Not surprisingly that was not somebody he drafted, traded for or extended.  Its not a crazy assumption that if he does trade away somebody, it probably won't be somebody he has recently invested in.

I think that´s just a coincidence, but if you want to see it as a d*** swinging move, he already slapped up JK.

[cow]

Agree with pretty much all of this.  I think there is a reason we have heard rumors of Gafford and PJ on the trading block and nothing on Kyrie or Naji.  I'm not worried that Masai is going to get a bad return for PJ.  If anything, his history indicates he has a tendency to set the price too high and wait too long to sell.  I'm on the fence whether PJ is likely to rehabilitate his value this coming season.  As it stands (assuming Klay is gone) there will be a roster crunch and given the need for shooting and creation, he might find his minutes getting cut.

I like PJ a lot and he has the talent to carve out as many minutes as he wants.  I was really disappointed in him last year.  From the outside looking in, he showed up disinterested and seemed to be in a funk all season which had little to do with the the sad state of point guard play on the team and more to do with effort.  Personal life is rough some times and the state of his on court life surely took a hit with all the changes, but he's been in the league long enough to be a pro and has a contract that should demand that level of pride.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Michael Scotto: The Los Angeles Clippers and Jalen Pickett have agreed to a two-way deal, league sources told @hoopshype . The 26-year-old guard spent the past three seasons with the Denver Nuggets where he shot 39% from 3-point range. Pickett was the 32nd pick of the 2023 NBA Draft.

x.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The Kings nearly traded Domantas Sabonis to the Toronto Raptors at the deadline in February -- a move he would've welcomed, a source with knowledge of the situation said -- for a package that included RJ Barrett, but the Raptors were unable to get off the three-year, $84 million remaining on Jakob Poeltl's contract, which doomed the deal.

ESPN

[F Gump]

MU track record has been to trade away a big name on his new team within less than a year.  Not surprisingly that was not somebody he drafted, traded for or extended.  Its not a crazy assumption that if he does trade away somebody, it probably won't be somebody he has recently invested in.

Obviously he can only trade ones he did not obtain, if he just arrived. But the history is that he traded starting players because they wanted out, not because they weren't his acquisition. He's not going to be cleaning house just to get a new set.

With PJ, if he is not the right fit or ability, sure he's highly likely to be traded. But if he's the right guy, I strongly believe MU isn't going to think "I didn't acquire him, so he needs to go." He needs to have the best, not the newest. The 16 players here now are all his players, and who stays or goes from here is a question of who is good enough (at the right price).

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Someone from the front court needs to be traded for a back court player and/or a future asset. That's just me as a Mavs fan looking at the team. (Maybe even 2 front court players being traded would be welcomed by me)

I don't care about the narratives.

[mvossman]

Obviously he can only trade ones he did not obtain, if he just arrived. But the history is that he traded starting players because they wanted out, not because they weren't his acquisition. He's not going to be cleaning house just to get a new set.

With PJ, if he is not the right fit or ability, sure he's highly likely to be traded. But if he's the right guy, I strongly believe MU isn't going to think "I didn't acquire him, so he needs to go." He needs to have the best, not the newest. The 16 players here now are all his players, and who stays or goes from here is a question of who is good enough (at the right price).

I don't remember Gay wanting out.  Who said he was going to clean house just to get a new set?  Or that he is trying to get rid of guys he didn't acquire?  I love how you create straw men out of my posts.

I simply observed that the forward room looks crowded to me, and if they are trading someone to balance out the roster it probably won't be one of the guys he just invested in.  The fact that Masai has invested this much into guys that can play his position is at least a hint that maybe he doesn't think PJ is the right fit.  Or maybe the plan is to play 3 power forward lineups.  I guess we will see.

[F Gump]

Someone from the front court needs to be traded for a back court player and/or a future asset.  That's just me as a Mavs fan looking at the team.  (Maybe even 2 front court players being traded would be welcomed by me)

I don't care about the narratives.

True if - but only if - they don't ascribe to the 1-3-1 model of roster building and lineups, ie
1 center
3 wings of varying sizes, shapes, and skills, mix-and-match as desired
1 pg/ballhandler 

But if that's their model, then any "trade" to adjust the lineup is going to be internal, as they have 3 C, 3 PG, and 10 players currently for those 3 wing spots. Just use the right player(s) in the right lineup in the right way.

[mvossman]

True if - but only if - they don't ascribe to the 1-3-1 model of roster building and lineups, ie
1 center
3 wings of varying sizes, shapes, and skills, mix-and-match as desired
1 pg/ballhandler 

But if that's their model, then any "trade" to adjust the lineup is going to be internal, as they have 3 C, 3 PG, and 10 players currently for those 3 wing spots. Just use the right player(s) in the right lineup in the right way.

I would argue that looks like a Luka template.  And even Luka in his best years had a strong creator next to him (Brunson/Kyrie).

I think they need at least two creators (if not three) on the court at all times.  They have Kyrie/Flagg/Naji/Larry/Sasser, and most of those guys are probably better categorized as secondary creators.  That seems really light.

[Smitty]

True if - but only if - they don't ascribe to the 1-3-1 model of roster building and lineups, ie
1 center
3 wings of varying sizes, shapes, and skills, mix-and-match as desired
1 pg/ballhandler 

But if that's their model, then any "trade" to adjust the lineup is going to be internal, as they have 3 C, 3 PG, and 10 players currently for those 3 wing spots. Just use the right player(s) in the right lineup in the right way.

It will definitely be the model this season. Mostly out of necessity? I suppose they could have drafted Burries over Morez. They could have traded for some non-Wings. It's not like they've kept the inherited roster completely intact. The moves they've made feel more like value plays rather than some team building philosophy, but maybe not?

There's value in being multiple. Having a number of guys with different skillsets, with the ability to play up or down in any 5-man grouping. There's also a ton of value in having multiple ballhandlers on the floor. Legit, real NBA-level ballhandlers.

One thing they can't really do right now is play the ole Rick Carlisle 3-Guard lineups. Sure, Flagg and Naji can function like one, but aren't really what we're talking about there. Although, someone earlier mentioned Naji being more of a backup PG in a sense. If we all view BWill as a Guard, how is Naji any different than him? Very similar playstyle offensively. Is it because one is 6'1 and the other happens to be 6'6? Both create their 'own' shot and live in the paint. Neither can shoot. 

[FireNicoHarrison]

If Luka needed another ballhandler then Kyrie needs for sure another ballhandler... Those 3 wings has to be very good at create.

Kyrie is not even Brunson.

Ok we don't have to win now but we have already seen a similar experiment end very badly.

I hope Sergio is ready for heavy minutes.

[Chicagojk]

Martin wouldn't have interest in this regardless, but I was wondering if a buyout with a player option is possible. Can he decline that now or does he need to wait until next June?

Martin is making 10 million this year and 9 million next year as a player option. Is it possible for Martin to be bought out for 7 or so million and then maybe get the 5-6 million the heat has left over? Otherwise he is here for two years and not in the rotation. He would get 19 million, but maybe playing for a team where he had success (and needs bodies) would be attractive to him. Maybe Miami would not have any interest though.

[Chicagojk]

I think a buyout of Klay is probably the most likely option. Maybe combining him with another player for a larger salary, non star player is the #2 option. I have trouble seeing a 1 for 1 trade for him. Or Dallas talking on longer term salary too.

Mavs have some time. Klay will need to want to play ball as well. Maybe both sides are not at that point yet.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think a buyout of Klay is probably the most likely option.  Maybe combining him with another player for a larger salary, non star player is the #2 option.    I have trouble seeing a 1 for 1 trade for him.  Or Dallas talking on longer term salary too.   

Mavs have some time.    Klay will need to want to play ball as well.  Maybe both sides are not at that point yet.

Sorry to be repetitious, but so are these comments - no buyout prior to the TDL. Find a team that will play ball.

[Smitty]

Although, someone earlier mentioned Naji being more of a backup PG in a sense. If we all view BWill as a Guard, how is Naji any different than him? Very similar playstyle offensively. Is it because one is 6'1 and the other happens to be 6'6? Both create their 'own' shot and live in the paint. Neither can shoot. 

If you were to build out a random regular season game with a 10/11-man rotation and pencil in Naji as the backup PG in this exercise it could look something like this:


   

Kyrie 32 | Naji 24
Max 24 | Sergio 12 
Flagg 36 | Risacher 16 
PJW 24 | Morez 20 
Gafford 20 | Lively 16 | Aldama 16


DNP-CD: Sasser, Tarik, Cisse, Martin, (Klay)

In this scenario you have Naji on the floor with one of Kyrie or Sergio in all but 4 minutes of the game. You can call Naji the PG or not. Doesn't matter. He essentially functions as one when on the floor here?