MAVS NEWS:

[Scott41theMavs]

Yeah, it comes down to Ishchenko or Cisse for the last two-way. The gave the QO to Cisse, but didn’t draft/choose him. They did pay money for a pick to nab Ish. A lot of it may depend on what Ish does in summer league. Idk, I just feel like Cisse has a path to minutes for this team and Ish can be stashed and developed some more. That’s my thought process anyway…

Also, Morez can absolutely start over Gafford. Idc about that part at all. Matter of fact, I like the suggestion.

I wouldn't think Rez would start the season as a starter, but through the course of the year should earn starter minutes at the very least.

The main argument for Cisse is that he is a decent backup center (quite underrated around here), and the Mavs need to retain that asset. Obviously there is much more need for him if Gafford is sent out. If Gafford stays, I would still prefer not to lose the asset/playable center, especially due to the injury concerns with Lively. (Once again, what a huge shift in the Mavs' fortunes if Lively plays 60+ games...) 

With Ishchenko, I don't know how good he will or won't be, but I'm just speaking in terms of what others have said about the international situation/Russia etc. - that if he came over from summer league, he's staying, and if he doesn't stay after that on the basis of the Mavs' decision making, my spec is that's probably the last we see of him in a Mavs jersey.

I get the arguments folks have had for Thompson staying put. I just keep coming back to the roster just not looking right with all of Marshall, PJ, Gafford, and Thompson back here. And goodness gracious, Martin is such an eyesore taking up needed space on this roster. Probably have to get rid of one or two of those four to get rid of him. 

To avoid being a major liability, especially in the starting lineup, Max will need to shoot 42%+ from three on fairly high volume and be at least a neutral-level perimeter defender.

[KillerLeft]

For our team, sure.  And I'm not saying there is no upside, but he feels more like a feel-good story than anything else at this point.

That's how I felt about Kai Jones last year. Idk, I could be wrong, but I really think Cisse has something, and I'd love to lock him in at 3-4 years for DIRT CHEAP.

[Scott41theMavs]

Everyone knows I love an underdog and I really enjoy Cisse's hustle, but I don't see him as a rotational piece.

As I was saying, quite underrated around here.

[KillerLeft]

I don´t think they are done. There is still a post LeDecision FA phase that has not even begun yet, where all the veterans are distributed.

I really think you've got to be right about this. I mean, I KNOW you're right about it from the league's POV, but I'm hoping you're right about the Mavs having business remaining.

[Smitty]

A great conversation... I’ve actually tweaked a few of my views. This community continues to be the best in the NBA!

[cow]

As I was saying, quite underrated around here.

I'd say he's overrated around here, thank fully I'm here to balance things out.

Everyone needs to get on the Lawal pet cat hype train anyway.

[Smitty]

Still feels like we need a move or two as we are light in the pants in the shot creation department.

Naji+Klay for Jrue.

[Smitty]

I wouldn't think Rez would start the season as a starter, but through the course of the year should earn starter minutes at the very least.

I’m not sure Rez starts game 1. Definitely not against it. May owes nothing to Gafford or Lively (if healthy). He has leeway to do what he wants tbh. BUT I do think he’ll start out at minimum around ~24mpg, with it gradually increasing throughout the season. He’ll prove too good to keep off the floor. Just my sense.

[KillerLeft]

Naji+Klay for Jrue.

I'd probably do that, at this point. I'm not sure having one big expiring contract is any better than having two medium sized ones, but I do think he'd make the team better in the meantime.

[Scott41theMavs]

I’m not sure Rez starts game 1. Definitely not against it. May owes nothing to Gafford or Lively (if healthy). He has leeway to do what he wants tbh. BUT I do think he’ll start out at minimum around ~24mpg, with it gradually increasing throughout the season. He’ll prove too good to keep off the floor. Just my sense.

That's why I said starter minutes at least. I do think he finishes the season in the top five of total minutes for the Mavs in the '26-'27 season.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'd probably do that, at this point. I'm not sure having one big expiring contract is any better than having two medium sized ones, but I do think he'd make the team better in the meantime.

Of course he would! And massively more balanced. I would far rather have one of the kids (Wallace, Scoot, Black, *not* Sharpe), but would be fine with Jrue and even with Murray.

[loki]

Of course he would! And massively more balanced. I would far rather have one of the kids (Wallace, Scoot, Black, *not* Sharpe), but would be fine with Jrue and even with Murray.

Anthony Black was pretty high on my list of buy low candidates last year. He definitely took a step forward, but I find myself a lot less interested now. It seems Orlando has accepted that Black needs to be a wing even though they're desperate for a PG. He's still a really solid defender. The value proposition just isn't there if he's a mediocre shooting 6'7" wing instead of a 6'7" point guard.

[Scott41theMavs]

Anthony Black was pretty high on my list of buy low candidates last year. He definitely took a step forward, but I find myself a lot less interested now. It seems Orlando has accepted that Black needs to be a wing even though they're desperate for a PG. He's still a really solid defender. The value proposition just isn't there if he's a mediocre shooting 6'7" wing instead of a 6'7" point guard.

If he's definitely not a PG, then I dutifully remove him from my list.

[cow]

Naji+Klay for Jrue.

[DallasMaverick]

He's an abysmal defensive rebounder, I agree. I don't even really hold that against bigs all the time, but when your whole bag is "traditional, big, physical center" I think rebounding kind of needs to be part of your package. He's a very good offensive rebounder, to be fair.

I started by asking Gemini if there was a correlation between blocked shots and defensive rebounds. Yep. 

If a player is aggressively trying to block shots, he’s less likely to get the defensive rebound.

Do blocks matter?

Nice analysis:
https://www.markhw.com/blog/2017/9/22/blocks-over-time

[Scott41theMavs]

Now I'm really on board with it. 

[cow]

Now I'm really on board with it. 

With your vote of confidence, I'm happy to be on the other side of the fence.

[KillerLeft]

I started by asking Gemini if there was a correlation between blocked shots and defensive rebounds. Yep. 

If a player is aggressively trying to block shots, he’s less likely to get the defensive rebound.

Do blocks matter?

Nice analysis:
https://www.markhw.com/blog/2017/9/22/blocks-over-time

Sorry, I missed this. It's a nuanced thing to talk about, imo. 

Rim protection is awesome, but just like any other stat it can be an empty thing. I'm not saying that Gafford's blocks are empty, but I do think his rim protection tends not to impact the game as possitively as Lively's, Flagg's, or even PJW's at times. This is a little anecdotal on my part, but it's certainly not the game changer teams get out of Wembenyama or Gobert. 

I've never really thought about the correlation you're attempting to make between hunting for blocks and defensive rebounding (or even better, boxing out so that others can rebound), but interestingly, I think you might be onto something in terms of why Gafford's rim protection doesn't seem as impactful as it should be. Cause and effect might be weird and I'd want to think/study some more, but the shot blockers I've noticed changing games are usually the ones who can cover a lot of space quickly with their feet. 

I rewatched the last 5 minutes of one of those close games Dallas won against Minnesota back in '24, and Gafford absolutely BEASTED down the stretch. It was a big reason they won, for sure, but man...he was completely selling his body out with every move. Landing on the floor in a heap on every play. On one hand, suuuuuuper cool that he's willing to play that hard in big moments (even as a general rule, I think effort is a strength of his, but this was crazy effort), but on the other hand, it just didn't seem super sustainable or under control. Guys like Wembenyama and Gobert (and I'd include a healthy Lively on that tier) make controlling that end of the floor look easy at times.

[F Gump]

This would seemingly fit what Masai and Mike seem to like (except for the length of contract part).  To me, it makes sense to look at the upper end of your range as Biber could have had more money if we were only trying to save room for a $14mm player.  BTW, I have slightly more room under the tax on my spreadsheet (not saying it is correct).  I have $16.493mm.

FWIW I have guessed a bit less room left than either of you. I am guesstimating Tarik will land at 3,077,000 rather than 3,000,000 or 2,926,829. (Until the deal is actually inked, I still have a tiny bit of wondering if his $6M number may turn out to be the amount he will get in the 1st year only, rather than the total including the TO.)

[dirkfansince1998]

I started by asking Gemini if there was a correlation between blocked shots and defensive rebounds. Yep. 

If a player is aggressively trying to block shots, he’s less likely to get the defensive rebound.

Do blocks matter?

Nice analysis:
https://www.markhw.com/blog/2017/9/22/blocks-over-time

Maybe I am missing something but the methodology is kinda flawed. Comparing the impact of blocks vs a metric that uses blocks in its formula (bball refs defensive rating is boxscore based).