2026 NBA draft thread

[F Gump]

Siakam is one of the better, more underrated high-post iso players in the league. Since Johnson isn't bringing those skills to the table, even on a rookie level, I'd say .......

Are we sure that's a reliable way to look at this comparison? 

To me the question about Johnson becoming Siakam should not be about comparing Johnson when he's drafted to what Siakam is right now, but rather how Johnson looks compared to the player TOR drafted. I would wager that Rookie Siakam probably didn't bring those "underrated high-post iso skills" to the table either when drafted.

I don't really have a good way to assess exactly what Siakam was on his draft day, but I find this comment about him back then: 
[When Siakam was drafted], "he was primarily an energy player who scored on put-backs, transition plays, and hustle. He lacked a polished jump shot and a diverse half-court offensive game."
I do think it's informative that PS was drafted 27th. To be sure, some of that draft slot flowed from him being 22 on draft day, but I have to think that if there was an expectation he had the potential to become anywhere near what he has become, he would have been drafted much higher.

[mvossman]

Are we sure that's a reliable way to look at this comparison? 

To me the question about Johnson becoming Siakam should not be about comparing Johnson when he's drafted to what Siakam is right now, but rather how Johnson looks compared to the player TOR drafted. I would wager that Rookie Siakam probably didn't bring those "underrated high-post iso skills" to the table either when drafted.

I don't really have a good way to assess exactly what Siakam was on his draft day, but I find this comment about him back then: 
[When Siakam was drafted], "he was primarily an energy player who scored on put-backs, transition plays, and hustle. He lacked a polished jump shot and a diverse half-court offensive game."
I do think it's informative that PS was drafted 27th. To be sure, some of that draft slot flowed from him being 22 on draft day, but I have to think that if there was an expectation he had the potential to become anywhere near what he has become, he would have been drafted much higher.

Should it be?  I mean for every Siakam there have been hundreds of guys drafted with a similar profile to the quote you posted who didn't develop into nearly the offensive player Siakam is.  Can Morez develop into an elite offensive player like Siakam?  Yes.  Is it likely based on his 2 years of college data?  No.  I'm not sure we should be using an extreme development outlier as a blueprint for what we would expect another player to do.

[F Gump]

Should it be?  I mean for every Siakam there have been hundreds of guys drafted with a similar profile to the quote you posted who didn't develop into nearly the offensive player Siakam is.  Can Morez develop into an elite offensive player like Siakam?  Yes.  Is it likely based on his 2 years of college data?  No.  I'm not sure we should be using an extreme development outlier as a blueprint for what we would expect another player to do.

You make my point. Siakam and Johnson were seemingly just about the same guy (however Johnson was a bit younger) when they were drafted, with similar profiles. The same guy - who seems to have a type - picked both players. My point is that it's premature to declare what Johnson CAN'T do, or CAN'T become, or that he can't become THIS (!) - because a "can't become Siakam" ceiling on that type of player does not exist. Siakam himself took that exact path, it seems.

[mvossman]

You make my point. Siakam and Johnson were seemingly just about the same guy (however Johnson was a bit younger) when they were drafted, with similar profiles. The same guy - who seems to have a type - picked both players. My point is that it's premature to declare what Johnson CAN'T do, or CAN'T become, or that he can't become THIS (!) - because a "can't become Siakam" ceiling on that type of player does not exist. Siakam himself took that exact path, it seems.

Looking at the OP (for some reason you didn't put the full post in your response) he never actually said "CAN'T". He literally used the term "unlikely". A single rare event doesn't really argue against something being unlikely.

[windjc]

Its also equally as unlikely that Burries would have significantly upgraded the Mavs team.

[F Gump]

Looking at the OP (for some reason you didn't put the full post in your response) he never actually said "CAN'T".  He literally used the term "unlikely".  A single rare event doesn't really argue against something being unlikely.

Here's a fuller quote, and I was true to the sense of what was being said in what I used ....

"Siakam is one of the better, more underrated high-post iso players in the league. Since Johnson isn't bringing those skills to the table, even on a rookie level, I'd say he's very unlikely to even be asked to develop those skills in the NBA. I guess the chances are never ZERO, but I frankly don't believe he'll ever remind one of Siakam on the offensive end."

he's very unlikely to even be asked to develop those skills
the chances are never ZERO, but

As I said before, the sense of what was written was to compare "Johnson when drafted' to "Siakam now, after years of development" to determine what Johnson can be. And it assumes the Mavs would be making THAT same sort of comparison and therefore would have no real thoughts of seeing if Johnson can develop like S did. Won't even try, why bother, they are too far apart right now. Given that M did it before with a similar starting player, why wouldn't it be extremely LIKELY (not "very unlikely") that he would try to get Johnson on the very same development path as he did with S, and keep pursuing that until (if) it is proven he cannot get there? 

Obviously we can't assume what J will become, as well as what he won't become. But the idea that WE should never think it's possible, basing that on an assumption that the Mavs surely must have already abandoned such thoughts, simply does not fit the history of how Siakam came to be in the first place - and who was in charge of the process that made it happen.

I would also suggest that M may have gone down a similar path with OG, and then again with Barnes, and maybe then again with Colin-Boyles, to turn a limited player into one with a much wider skill set. All ended up in different outcomes from S, but S was not the only TOR draftee who clearly became much more (and different than) the player they were when drafted, right?

[Winter]

Agree with FG above. I'm not sure you can groom him to be Pascal and still have him be Moritz Johnson. Each has something they do better - and probably did better on day one of their rookie contract.

[Smitty]

This conversation is starting to sound a lot like last year with Cooper. Who he is now, what he can't do, or won't be. Then Flagg went out and surprised everyone with his offensive bag, as early as Year 1. Now the projection for most need recalibrated. Hope Morez Johnson does the same. That's all.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Nick Friedell: High praise for Yaxel after the first day of practice. A lot of guys have said he’s even bigger than they thought. And they can see that he can defend all over the floor. A lot of hype for his debut in Cali Classic/Vegas.

x.com

[Chicagojk]

I had been about two weeks behind on podcasts. An extended vacation has put me around a month behind, so I have a lot of work left to do.

Anyway, quick shootout to Isaac Harris from Locked on and Bobby Karalla from DLLs. I listed to two episodes where both said they were fine with Johnson as the pick at 9 three weeks out. Personally I did not study him much, but both deserve some early predictions.