2026 NBA draft thread

[Smitty]

I'll add this about Ament: pay no attention to any names on these examples other than Ament and Flagg, but there are two ways the Mavs could slot him into their thinking, and in my opinion, one moves them in an interesting direction, while the other doubles down on everything that has been wrong with this team since the Luka trade.

1), the interesting way:
Kyrie
Christie
Ament
Flagg
Lively

2), the idea I want literally nothing to do with:
Kyrie
Flagg
Ament
PJW
Lively

Either way, both Flagg and Ament are going to handle the ball, and that's great, but the first way makes them handling the ball an advantage, not an albatross.

And in the playoffs when you have to have a 5-out option:

Kyrie
Christie
Ament
Flagg
PJW (Think Maxi)

[mvossman]

There are a lot of "another DSJ" worries floating around here these days. For me, that's the worry with Carr. He's athletic, yes, but he doesn't seem creatively athletic to me. All the dunks are straight line drives, off the same foot with the same hand. I don't hate him, but I'm not thrilled about him, either. 

The thing that makes Ament palatable for me is this: when it comes to "star" potential, I think he's pretty high on the list. To me, you've got Peterson, Dybantsa, possibly Boozer, Acuff, Brown Jr and then Ament right after if you're listing guys with star potential. Obviously, the top 2-3 have higher floors, but Brown Jr and Ament could do some real damage in the NBA if they figure things out. I don't hate the strategy, especially where the Mavs are. I'd probably still draft Burries over Ament, but I can see the argument for Ament, and if Burries isn't there, well...

I'm just curious, has there even been an NBA star that struggled as much as Ament did in college?  One that shot anywhere near 53% TS with as many turnovers as assists?  I realize its only one season, but its a huge red flag for me.

[KillerLeft]

And in the playoffs when you have to have a 5-out option:

Kyrie
Christie
Ament
Flagg
PJW (Think Maxi)

I actually think Lively IS a 5-out center, tbh. Not in an a "stand in the corner and be ready to shoot" way, but in a Draymond Green "handle the ball while setting screens and dish it to a cutter heading downhill" sort of way. That's kind of the more modern version of "5-out" and the Mavs were in the process of implementing those actions with Lively when his injury flared up again. 

I think a guy like Kleber would be a great thing to have in the tool belt, too, don't get me wrong. I think that being the ONLY way PJW fits sells him pretty short, which is why I'd probably look to move him, personally. 

But, in that first example I gave, with Ament, Flagg and Lively being the front court, EVERYONE except Christie can handle the ball, and there are loads of physical advantages to be found, even before adjusting the lineup/play style. That's pretty interesting. I don't even know that Ament would be a starter in year 1, to be clear, but that would be my vision. One way you could adjust from there is to play Ament and Flagg as the two BIGGEST guys, similar to your PJW take. Imagine how easy it would be to run some team's bench off the floor in that scenario.

[mvossman]

This should absolutely be the mindset, whether it's Ament or someone else.  We have too little long-term talent to get pigeon-holed into taking a guard just because mock drafts and current positional need would point in that direction.  There are other ways to get guards and we have to have a vision for players beyond what they will do in 26/27.  

With that said, if you study drafts, there is a disproportionate amount of failures in the 6-9 range.  Once you get past that point, teams will take someone with one sure-fire NBA skill and hope they can grow other parts of a players game.  But at 6-9 the tendency is to take upside guys who have higher ceilings.  But, they also have lower floors than the guys taken in the top 5.  You have to be right if you are taking the gamble.  

One thing about Ament...I wonder if Risacher isn't going through the same "ugly" that you'd expect Ament to go through his first two years.  Which of them projects to be better?  Would we rather have Gafford/Ament (if that is what Masai decides to do) or Morez/Risacher (especially if the latter means moving from #30 to #23)?  The world has seen Risacher score 30 points in an NBA game (4 times).  We have a much better idea what is possible with him than we do with Ament.

I think the difference in this draft is the 5 guards are closer to 4-5 guys in other drafts.  Most of them have stronger floors than your typical 6-9 pick.  Ament is a classic 6-9 pick in a typical draft with the bust potential to go with it.  My issue with going after the high ceiling guys is that I have watched high floor guys end up with a bigger ceiling than realized, and I have seen too many high ceiling guys bust.

Its interesting that one of the most common comps I read for Ament is Risacher.  Risacher had a very similar NBA rookie season to Ament's college freshman season.  He didn't improve in his second season so folks are ready to give up on him.  There is a reason I would be more than happy to trade Gafford (who I think value is late first at best) for Risacher, but have no interest in spending #9 on Ament.

[Smitty]

I'm just curious, has there even been an NBA star that struggled as much as Ament did in college?  One that shot anywhere near 53% TS with as many turnovers as assists?  I realize its only one season, but its a huge red flag for me.

I think it was you that emphasized how much one college season is such a small sample size. Apologies if I'm wrong there... But we're talking about a ~30 game snapshot of who these guys are. That's not even half of an NBA season. Sure, it's mostly all we have to go on, but that's why it's easy for fans to have such bold and definite opinions. We don't have to be right. We're not making the decision. So much goes into scouting. College performance is only a fraction of it. 

Speaking of small sample sizes, here's why upside is talked about so much with Ament:

First 15 Games: - 14.7 PTS, 6.5 REB, 2.6 AST - 40.0 FG%, 27.3 3P%, 77.8 FT% 
Next 12 Games: - 22.8 PTS, 6.9 REB, 2.5 AST - 46.8 FG%, 44.4 3P%, 83.3 FT%

I'm sure you can do this type of thing with any player, but it just highlights the fact that he's a high ceiling low floor guy is all.

[Smitty]

Give me JQ at #30 all day! The upside is too much to pass on at that point.

[mvossman]

I think it was you that emphasized how much one college season is such a small sample size. Apologies if I'm wrong there... But we're talking about a ~30 game snapshot of who these guys are. That's not even half of an NBA season. Sure, it's mostly all we have to go on, but that's why it's easy for fans to have such bold and definite opinions. We don't have to be right. We're not making the decision. So much goes into scouting. College performance is only a fraction of it. 

Speaking of small sample sizes, here's why upside is talked about so much with Ament:

First 15 Games: - 14.7 PTS, 6.5 REB, 2.6 AST - 40.0 FG%, 27.3 3P%, 77.8 FT% 
Next 12 Games: - 22.8 PTS, 6.9 REB, 2.5 AST - 46.8 FG%, 44.4 3P%, 83.3 FT%

I'm sure you can do this type of thing with any player, but it just highlights the fact that he's a high ceiling low floor guy is all.

I probably said college was a small sample, but that was primarily in reference to looking at three point shooting percentage (which is a very noisy stat that needs a lot of sample).  A college season may only have ~35 games but it spans nearly the full 5 months of an NBA season and is by for the strongest competition these players face (for a good sized sample) prior to NBA.  I have read in a couple of places that teams tend to undervalue college performance and overvalue projection.  Ament would be the poster child of that mindset.

As for the player, I don't think Ament is going to be a star.  I don't think he will be an on ball player.  I think he will provide some level of off ball offense and will struggle some on defense because he doesn't have the lateral quickness on the perimeter or the bulk to defend down low.  That profile just doesn't interest me that much.

[Smitty]

I probably said college was a small sample, but that was primarily in reference to looking at three point shooting percentage (which is a very noisy stat that needs a lot of sample).  A college season may only have ~35 games but it spans nearly the full 5 months of an NBA season and is by for the strongest competition these players face (for a good sized sample) prior to NBA.  I have read in a couple of places that teams tend to undervalue college performance and overvalue projection.  Ament would be the poster child of that mindset.

As for the player, I don't think Ament is going to be a star.  I don't think he will be an on ball player.  I think he will provide some level of off ball offense and will struggle some on defense because he doesn't have the lateral quickness on the perimeter or the bulk to defend down low.  That profile just doesn't interest me that much.

All valid points. I respect that opinion. Maybe you were right when you said he's the most polarizing in the draft!

[Chicagojk]

I am intrigued with ament. He wouldn’t be my first choice. Also, I am typically not a trade up guy but I would probably be in favor on a Wagler/Acuff trade up if the price is fair. My feeling is it probably wouldn’t be fair though.

[hakeemfaan]

I think the difference in this draft is the 5 guards are closer to 4-5 guys in other drafts.  Most of them have stronger floors than your typical 6-9 pick.  Ament is a classic 6-9 pick in a typical draft with the bust potential to go with it.  My issue with going after the high ceiling guys is that I have watched high floor guys end up with a bigger ceiling than realized, and I have seen too many high ceiling guys bust.

Its interesting that one of the most common comps I read for Ament is Risacher.  Risacher had a very similar NBA rookie season to Ament's college freshman season.  He didn't improve in his second season so folks are ready to give up on him.  There is a reason I would be more than happy to trade Gafford (who I think value is late first at best) for Risacher, but have no interest in spending #9 on Ament.

I was going to write the same thing but you articulated it better than I could have done 

Again none of us know and maybe the guards flop and Ament becomes a stud. 

However given what we  know currently there is a lot of hope and prayer hoping that Ament improves a lot on two things: His jump shot AND his finishing around the rim. If it was just one of these two things I would feel more comfortable.

[Chicagojk]

Interesting group of teams

https://x.com/krystenpeek/status/2067690...41993?s=46

[cow]

I actually think Lively IS a 5-out center, tbh. Not in an a "stand in the corner and be ready to shoot" way, but in a Draymond Green "handle the ball while setting screens and dish it to a cutter heading downhill" sort of way. That's kind of the more modern version of "5-out" and the Mavs were in the process of implementing those actions with Lively when his injury flared up again. 

I don't see it, personally.  And let's not forget that Draymond is willing to pull the trigger from distance when defenders pull too far off which is something Lively has been unwilling to do.

[KillerLeft]

I was going to write the same thing but you articulated it better than I could have done 

Again none of us know and maybe the guards flop and Ament becomes a stud. 

However given what we  know currently there is a lot of hope and prayer hoping that Ament improves a lot on two things: His jump shot AND his finishing around the rim. If it was just one of these two things I would feel more comfortable.

Everyone and their brother knows I've been screaming "GUARD" into this forum for months. It's just starting to feel like the Mavs like some of the guards more than others, specifically the ones who won't fall to 9. There's even talk that Burries doesn't make it that far now. 

I like Flemings, and I don't know that Dallas doesn't, but there has been like nothing about him here, not even rumors. They've been loosely linked with Brown Jr, Acuff and Burries, but not really Flemings, and it's starting to feel to me like Flemings is the one who'll be there at 9, so...that's why I'm attempting to wrap my head around an Ament pick. 

I don't know how likely I think this is, but if he's Durant, Odom or, hell, even Rashard Lewis, that would be a score. Gotta assume that IF the Mavs draft him it's because Schmitz thinks he will be.

[KillerLeft]

I don't see it, personally.  And let's not forget that Draymond is willing to pull the trigger from distance when defenders pull too far off which is something Lively has been unwilling to do.

They were literally doing it, and VERY effectively, during both of the last two seasons, and that's even with certified non-offensive-genius Jason Kidd on the sideline. I honestly don't even think it requires proof of concept. It's not that I can see it, it's that I HAVE seen it. 

It's just about whether or not the kid can make it through a season, at this point.

[Chicagojk]

Several assumptions here. Not sure I agree with them all. Not even sure his stats are right, but anyway…

https://x.com/flyhigher67/status/2067474...22521?s=46

[cow]

They were literally doing it, and VERY effectively, during both of the last two seasons, and that's even with certified non-offensive-genius Jason Kidd on the sideline. I honestly don't even think it requires proof of concept. It's not that I can see it, it's that I HAVE seen it. 

It's just about whether or not the kid can make it through a season, at this point.

Eh.  I know he catches that ball up top for DHOs and what not, but I still don't think it's comparable to Draymond who does a lot of little things that Lively isn't willing to do or hasn't been asked to do.

[hakeemfaan]

There are a lot of "another DSJ" worries floating around here these days. For me, that's the worry with Carr. He's athletic, yes, but he doesn't seem creatively athletic to me. All the dunks are straight line drives, off the same foot with the same hand. I don't hate him, but I'm not thrilled about him, either. 

The thing that makes Ament palatable for me is this: when it comes to "star" potential, I think he's pretty high on the list. To me, you've got Peterson, Dybantsa, possibly Boozer, Acuff, Brown Jr and then Ament right after if you're listing guys with star potential. Obviously, the top 2-3 have higher floors, but Brown Jr and Ament could do some real damage in the NBA if they figure things out. I don't hate the strategy, especially where the Mavs are. I'd probably still draft Burries over Ament, but I can see the argument for Ament, and if Burries isn't there, well...

I don’t know why folks are comparing him to DSJ. DSJ is a poor long range shooter. Carr is not. DSJ had very good handles. Carr is ok there. Else he would be ranked higher even with questions about his defensive motor. 

They are totally different players. Carr, if his shot translates, can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. DSJ was never looked at as an instant offense type of guy. I look at Carr more as a Zach LaVine type if his shot translates well to the longer NBA line. Outside threat. Lazy defender.

[KillerLeft]

Eh.  I know he catches that ball up top for DHOs and what not, but I still don't think it's comparable to Draymond who does a lot of little things that Lively isn't willing to do or hasn't been asked to do.

Ok, well just forget I mentioned Green then, I guess. You seem focused on the wrong part of the point. I'm simply pointing out that around here, when people mention "5-out," they usually only think of the 5 standing outside the 3-point line, ready to shoot, the way Kleber and Porzingis were used, or the way Nellie used LaFrentz back in the day. I just mean there are other ways to accomplish 5-out spacing and that Lively has the skills with the ball to be used that way. I know this because I've seen it myself and listened to analysts remark at how good he is at it. That's all I'm saying. Lively can thrive in a 5-out system without ever shooting a 3.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t know why folks are comparing him to DSJ. DSJ is a poor long range shooter. Carr is not. DSJ had very good handles. Carr is ok there. Else he would be ranked higher even with questions about his defensive motor. 

They are totally different players. Carr, if his shot translates, can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. DSJ was never looked at as an instant offense type of guy. I look at Carr more as a Zach LaVine type if his shot translates well to the longer NBA line. Outside threat. Lazy defender.

Valid, but I wasn't comparing their play styles. Instead, It was just about someone that pops athletically, gets everyone excited and then you find out he's not actually that great at basketball. THAT's what I was driving at with the comparison. I worry about that some with Carr.

[hakeemfaan]

Eh.  I know he catches that ball up top for DHOs and what not, but I still don't think it's comparable to Draymond who does a lot of little things that Lively isn't willing to do or hasn't been asked to do.

You can’t hide Lively the way GS could do with Dray. They had some of the best shooters ever and so defenses couldn’t cheat. 

Dray will take and make the odd outside shot and can also put the ball and create while driving to the basket. All Lively can try is to roll and dunk.
We all saw how valuable Mitchell Robinson was. So I am not minimizing what that type of a player can do. I just feel Dray is not the right comparison. For all of his ridiculous behavior and flawed jump shot, Dray’ handles and ability to create or finish by himself, make him a very unique player.