2026 NBA draft thread

[DanSchwartzgan]

Perfectly reasonable to assume the Mavs might have a Wing/Big rated higher than the last of THE5 guards that fall to 9. Burries is the last one standing more times than not. If they aren't as high on him as Rich Paul wishes, then it's likely they look at trade back options as well as picking someone like Ament/Yaxel/Mara/Johnson/Carr instead. BPA for us fans are likely different than BPA of our front office. We see it every draft.

I wonder if we aren't spending enough time on Carr...especially in a trade back scenario.

[Winter]

I wonder if we aren't spending enough time on Carr...especially in a trade back scenario.

I have had that thought, but most of the board is not high on him. 

Baylor was terrible defensively, so it was hard to ascertain too much from his defense. And while we generally don't single out the combine to shape our opinion, it was surprising what the no-ceilings guys had to say about him there.

He didn't have to play in the combine scrimmage (most first-rounders usually don't), but to everyone's surprise, he did. And he came out and just cleaned up. He had 30-something points in 20-something minutes. He was hitting 3s, driving to the basket, ...and it was such a weird stand-out performance that all those analysts just went on and on about him. He was a man among boys out there. So he apparently he really wants to prove his value.

He's got some off-ball work to do, but he is explosive... and he does have the tools.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

The top four and Brown, Wagler, Acuff and Flemings were chalk for the first 8.

That's the only scenario where I'm ok with trading down.

[Smitty]

Do we have to talk about Carr at 9 now?!





@DBCJason
Shooting Score: a simple metric with only 3 inputs (3P%, FT%, 3Pr), weighted by how correlated each are to NBA 3P%

Here are the best shooters in the 2026 NBA Draft and a graph plotting Shooting Score against self-created 3 point scoring in an attempt to capture shooting dynamism

I wonder if we aren't spending enough time on Carr...especially in a trade back scenario.

We talked about Carr quite a bit after being a standout at the combine but not much since. Above is a snapshot of some of the measurables and shooting. 2 things that stand out as both a "Masai guy" and something this team really needs going forward (shooting). I have him at 14, but 7-15 are all in the same tier for me. Basically a 'projected starter' tier. I don't know if that's how an NBA front office will have it split [tiers]... maybe it's a true stack with an overall score based on a point system with weighted metrics. I don't know, but I do think Carr will be a good one at the next level. All of these prospects have flaws. Carr at least has a real NBA skill to work with from day 1, SHOOTING.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Marc J. Spears: I keep hearing from several NBA executives that the Thunder are trying to move up not just the two first-round picks, but the second round pick into the top 10 to get a a player in the top 10. But who wants to give up a player in this draft in the top 10? Good luck, Sam Presti.

YouTube

[HoosierDaddyKid]

1. Washington Wizards. AJ Dybantsa | 6-9 wing | 19 years old | BYU I’m sticking with Dybantsa here, but sources say that Washington continues due diligence and that the Wizards haven’t made a decision yet. One thing that has been made clear in recent days is that the team is doing a lot of research into Darryn Peterson to understand everything it needs to know about him. However, sources have also said not to read too much into the fact that Peterson is not currently scheduled to go to the Utah Jazz to work out; they don’t think that means the Wizards have made an undisclosed promise to pick Peterson. Regardless, sources indicate that the Jazz are also undecided on what to do at No. 2. Do not expect, however, that connections to Cameron Boozer through his father Carlos (who works in the Jazz front office) or Dybantsa through team owner Ryan Smith at BYU will be the deciding factor here.

New York Times

[HoosierDaddyKid]

And NIL money is increasing, seemingly exponentially. This year, the spigot of cash enticed several current U.S. college players to stay in school — along with a slew of international players who opted to play for U.S. colleges next season rather than the pros, severely weakening the second round. Multiple teams told The Athletic they are still highly unsure of who will be taken in the draft’s last 20 picks. But the draft starts with Tuesday’s first round. We start today, with my annual compilation of intel from NBA and college head coaches and assistant coaches, NBA scouts, college executives and NBA front office people. I’ve gathered this over the last three months, going back to before the start of the NCAA Tournament. As ever, the final number of people with whom I spoke will be somewhere between two and three dozen. (I don’t ask coaches about their own players; it’s hard to expect them to be as honest about their own guys as they tend to be about opposing players.)

New York Times

[KillerLeft]

There are a lot of "another DSJ" worries floating around here these days. For me, that's the worry with Carr. He's athletic, yes, but he doesn't seem creatively athletic to me. All the dunks are straight line drives, off the same foot with the same hand. I don't hate him, but I'm not thrilled about him, either. 

The thing that makes Ament palatable for me is this: when it comes to "star" potential, I think he's pretty high on the list. To me, you've got Peterson, Dybantsa, possibly Boozer, Acuff, Brown Jr and then Ament right after if you're listing guys with star potential. Obviously, the top 2-3 have higher floors, but Brown Jr and Ament could do some real damage in the NBA if they figure things out. I don't hate the strategy, especially where the Mavs are. I'd probably still draft Burries over Ament, but I can see the argument for Ament, and if Burries isn't there, well...

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Darryn Peterson | 6-4 1/2 guard | 19 years old | Kansas Eastern Conference scout No. 1: Darryn has the higher floor (over Dybantsa). He’s going to be really good. Can he be a core player, a Steph (Curry) or Klay (Thompson)? I think he has the ability to be Klay-level. He’s really, really good. I went to a few practices, and he’s as good as any college player I’ve seen. It wasn’t like it was a bunch of first-round picks around him, like if he was at Duke. … His high school team was the same way — it wasn’t great. Teams try to take him out. I saw him shoot with his left hand on four straight possessions: a jumper, a layup off the glass. … There’s a lot of poise to him. I don’t like anybody doing the Kobe Bryant, “I’ve got Mamba Mentality.” I don’t really like that. He’s a quiet kid. He’s not going to seek attention. I think he’s closer to Kawhi (Leonard) than Kobe in terms of personality.

New York Times

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Darius Acuff, Jr. | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Everyone knew coming in that Acuff could score. Elite, elite scorer from multiple levels. He did not play to his age as a scorer. Where he evolved this year and put himself in a tier with the top prospects was his playmaking. He made huge, huge strides. Throwing lobs, running pick-and-rolls, trying to find a balance between scoring and playmaking. For a guy who came in as a thirsty guard to now be a legit point guard who can also be an explosive scorer, that is something you look for with a player of his size. The defensive side of the floor is a concern. I worry that he’s going to be a player that teams target. But what gives me hope is that he is built like a tank. … You put the right guys around him, he’s going to be a Tyrese Maxey-level player.

New York Times

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Jake Fischer: I’m told Arizona guard Brayden Burries impressed Clippers staffers during his visit in Los Angeles on Tuesday, and is very much under consideration for the fifth pick in next Tuesday’s NBA Draft. Sources say another top candidate for No. 5, Mikel Brown Jr., is slated to workout for the Clippers tomorrow.

x.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

For now, though, let's say that the Bucks do stay at No. 10. We've already written about Milwaukee's interest in the top guards on the board … everyone from Darius Acuff Jr. to Keaton Wagler to Mikel Brown Jr. after flying down to Orlando to meet with Brown. I've since been told that a Milwaukee contingent including general manager Jon Horst and new head coach Taylor Jenkins also traveled to New York recently to visit with Nate Ament during this pre-draft process. Now the Bucks are being looked at by some rival teams as the absolute floor for the Tennessee forward. Sources say Ament has drawn interest as high as the Clippers at No. 5, Brooklyn at No. 6 and ranks as a strong contender to emerge as Dallas' ultimate pick at No. 9.

marcstein.substack.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Sources say Phoenix is talking trades that could net a first-round pick in this draft. The Suns are currently only guaranteed to make one pick next week: No. 47 in Wednesday's second round.

marcstein.substack.com

[Winter]

There are a lot of "another DSJ" worries floating around here these days. For me, that's the worry with Carr. He's athletic, yes, but he doesn't seem creatively athletic to me. All the dunks are straight line drives, off the same foot with the same hand. I don't hate him, but I'm not thrilled about him, either. 

I think his playmaking is a valid criticism of Carr. I've heard that from some podcasts.

On the other hand, he's always mocked somewhere in the mid-teens, and that kind of flaw just comes with the territory at about #15. He should not be a singular selection at #9 and I don't expect that.

[KillerLeft]

I think that's a valid criticism of Carr. I've heard that from some podcasts.

On the other hand, he's always mocked somewhere in the mid-teens, and that kind of flaw just comes with the territory at about #15. He should not be a singular selection at #9 and I don't expect that.

Yeah, it's a better gamble if you're picking lower than 9, for sure. I wouldn't hate a Carr pick at a certain level, I just don't agree with the idea by some that the lower level offers the same opportunity as #9. In some drafts, yes, but I don't agree with that thinking in this one.

[Smitty]

There are a lot of "another DSJ" worries floating around here these days. For me, that's the worry with Carr. He's athletic, yes, but he doesn't seem creatively athletic to me. All the dunks are straight line drives, off the same foot with the same hand. I don't hate him, but I'm not thrilled about him, either. 

The thing that makes Ament palatable for me is this: when it comes to "star" potential, I think he's pretty high on the list. To me, you've got Peterson, Dybantsa, possibly Boozer, Brown Jr and then Ament right after if you're listing guys with star potential. Obviously, the top 2-3 have higher floors, but Brown Jr and Ament could do some real damage in the NBA if they figure things out. I don't hate the strategy, especially where the Mavs are. I'd probably still draft Burries over Ament, but I can see the argument for Ament, and if Burries isn't there, well...

I would add Acuff to your "star potential" list, but I agree with your overall point. That's the thing isn't it... If this is the last lottery pick the Mavs will have in the next 5+ years, do you go for high upside or high floor. I probably lean high upside but can see both sides of it. Of course, both high upside and high floor guys aren't likely to be available at pick 9.

In the end none of us know how these guys will pan out. I also don't care to draft the best ROOKIE. Or the best GUARD. I want the best PLAYER. That's why Ament has been in my top 10 all year (upside). I think Dan comparing him to ZR has some merit... That he may not look like a homerun in year 1 or 2. It could take a little longer for someone like him.

I think it was you that shared the Tommy Sheppard clip and he said something similar. That you pick based on upside and when a scout says something like plug and play that usually means he'll be good on the rookie contract but not much better -- alluding to high floor types. There's more than one philosophy and we have no idea what the new MBT are thinking. It will be interesting to watch play out either way.

[KillerLeft]

I would add Acuff to your "star potential" list, but I agree with your overall point. 

Yep, that was an oversight, and I had already added him before you posted this. Good call.

[mvossman]

I am completely out on Brown Jr. I saw a graph a few weeks ago. One of those with four areas (sry language barrier) where each shows a players impact on his teams offensive / defensive stats. He was a big net negative impact wise on both ends.

The similarities to DSJ are terrifying Imo. I was super high on Dennis but he was equally bad at running a halfcourt set and besides some fun shotmaking and athletic finishes he never actually was or developed into an efficient creator. I fear the same will happen with Brown. On the defensive end I have my doubts as well. Brown is a lot taller but that does not move the needle Imo.

Therefore I have come to terms with Burries potentially being the guy. I am not entirely out on Ament but he is a longshot as well.

All that stuff shows how INSANE it was to crap away their lottery odds last season. You loose 16 out of 18 games at one point only to somehow still end the season with a late lottery pick. Absolute madness. They should fire Riccardi and Kidd again just for how badly this was fumbled (& Finley of course but he is somehow still here)

One big difference between Brown and DSJ is that Brown projects to be one of the best 3 point shooters coming out of the draft (based on FT% and volume).  I do worry about his decision making though.

[KillerLeft]

I'll add this about Ament: pay no attention to any names on these examples other than Ament and Flagg, but there are two ways the Mavs could slot him into their thinking, and in my opinion, one moves them in an interesting direction, while the other doubles down on everything that has been wrong with this team since the Luka trade.

1), the interesting way:
Kyrie
Christie
Ament
Flagg
Lively

2), the idea I want literally nothing to do with:
Kyrie
Flagg
Ament
PJW
Lively

Either way, both Flagg and Ament are going to handle the ball, and that's great, but the first way makes them handling the ball an advantage, not an albatross.

[KillerLeft]

One big difference between Brown and DSJ is that Brown projects to be one of the best 3 point shooters coming out of the draft (based on FT% and volume).  I do worry about his decision making though.

Hence the lower floor than the top few names on the list. Still, when it comes to tools, he's got them, and in a way DSJ never did.