Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[mvossman]

I think this forum generally sells Kyrie way short, in their perceptions. That's not a comment about a trade offer that's too low in return, but rather a failure to appreciate the difference on the court that an all-NBA caliber player brings. The gravity of their game has huge impact. The desire for Flagg to have a top-level running mate to alter the offense's potential would be IMMENSELY changed as soon as day one, just by having a healthy Kyrie.

I think for most folks open to trading Kyrie it's not about his impact on the court today.  Its about his impact on the court in his late 30s when this team is ready to contend.  They are looking at the realities of a long term rebuild around a 19 year old with very limited assets.  From that perspective it would make sense to get maximum asset return for a mid 30s player.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I think for most folks open to trading Kyrie it's not about his impact on the court today.  Its about his impact on the court in his late 30s when this team is ready to contend.  They are looking at the realities of a long term rebuild around a 19 year old with very limited assets.  From that perspective it would make sense to get maximum asset return for a mid 30s player.

Not only that, but a big part of the appeal of Kyrie is that his contract is relatively cheap. He could ball out this season and then opt-out next off-season, and walk for nothing.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I just watched a Chicago based YouTube that suggested the following deal for Giddey.

Klay, Caleb + #30 for Giddey

Clearly, they don't value Giddey.  They envision a buyout for Thompson, so it is basically #30 for Giddey and taking back a contract in Martin that is less bad.  

Is Giddey's D good enough for a championship team?  Probably not, but this isn't a championship team for the three remaining years of his contract (and it isn't like you are giving up anything).  His contract is probably a bit high for what he is today, but when your core is on rookie contracts, this kind of thing is OK.  I think he's be pretty fun starting next to Kyrie, but longer term the fit also works next to someone with more defensive prowess like Burries.

I'd be shocked if he was this cheap, but this was a Chicago based channel.

[cow]

No thanks to Giddy.

[F Gump]

I just watched a Chicago based YouTube that suggested the following deal for Giddey.

Klay, Caleb + #30 for Giddey

Clearly, they don't value Giddey.  They envision a buyout for Thompson, so it is basically #30 for Giddey and taking back a contract in Martin that is less bad.  

Is Giddey's D good enough for a championship team?  Probably not, but this isn't a championship team for the three remaining years of his contract (and it isn't like you are giving up anything).  His contract is probably a bit high for what he is today, but when your core is on rookie contracts, this kind of thing is OK.  I think he's be pretty fun starting next to Kyrie, but longer term the fit also works next to someone with more defensive prowess like Burries.

I'd be shocked if he was this cheap, but this was a Chicago based channel.

My biggest question about Giddey is what does CHI think of him. Is he a distressed asset that they want to get rid of his contract, or is he highly valued? I'm probably interested if he's one they want to move his contract, especially if they will give up a bit of side value to do so. If they highly value him, then I would have no interest, because the price would be wayyyyyy more than I would want to pay. (It actually seems to me like they highly value him as a core and essential piece, but I could be way off.)

But if they want to get rid of him, yeah I'm very interested at the right price ....

Klay, Caleb + #30 for Giddey >> I would do the players, but I would hope to get some positive draft capital, not negative.

PLAYERS -  Klay, Caleb for Giddey ... CHI is getting out from under $75M owed, and only taking on about $37M.
PICKS - negotiable but I would expect Mavs get the better end of this as compensation for taking the financial obligation off of CHI cap. 30,48 for 15 would be my preference.

[DallasMaverick]

I think for most folks open to trading Kyrie it's not about his impact on the court today.  Its about his impact on the court in his late 30s when this team is ready to contend.  They are looking at the realities of a long term rebuild around a 19 year old with very limited assets.  From that perspective it would make sense to get maximum asset return for a mid 30s player.

The problem with this approach is that, if the "target" for contention is 3 or 4 years from now, when Cooper is nearing his prime, there's limited salary cap space. 

The window for massive overproduction relative to salary is the next three years. Another reason I'd favor drafting mature players who can contribute immediately. Or trading current draft picks for players in or nearing their prime who can win now.

That's why I'm skeptical about all the plans to trade PJ, Gaff, Naji for "future" lottery tickets.

[mvossman]

The problem with this approach is that, if the "target" for contention is 3 or 4 years from now, when Cooper is nearing his prime, there's limited salary cap space. 

The window for massive overproduction relative to salary is the next three years. Another reason I'd favor drafting mature players who can contribute immediately. Or trading current draft picks for players in or nearing their prime who can win now.

That's why I'm skeptical about all the plans to trade PJ, Gaff, Naji for "future" lottery tickets.

As somebody already mentioned, most of the great players did not win a championship on their first contract.  It takes time to build a championship.  The key is have the building blocks in place and go over the cap with bird rights before his big extension.  The ability to do that is more limited now due to the aprons, but I don't think trying to rush a championship in Flagg first 4 years is the right way to approach this.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

A combination of the Mavs, Warriors, Bulls and Hawks trade:

Mavs get #4, Giddey, P. Williams, Kispert, Hield and Moody
Bulls get #11, #23, Klay, Martin and Horford
Warriors get #30 and PJ
Hawks get Gafford

The Mavs take on a LOT of bad money, but end up with #4. This is how they can get Wilson and a guard at #9.

[F Gump]

A combination of the Mavs, Warriors, Bulls and Hawks trade:

Mavs get #4, Giddey, P. Williams, Kispert, Hield and Moody
Bulls get #11, #23, Klay, Martin and Horford
Warriors get #30 and PJ
Hawks get Gafford

The Mavs take on a LOT of bad money, but end up with #4. This is how they can get Wilson and a guard at #9.

Interesting proposition. As for DAL, ATL, and GS, I would think ALL of them would definitely be thrilled at this deal. 

At 1st glance, I would think CHI would not consider giving up 4. Does this really offer CHI the sort of things they would be pursuing? Aren't they more or less where the Mavs are, looking for talented pieces to add and not all that worried about cap payroll? OTOH they might be getting back enough value for 4 where they have to think it does enough that they have to say yes - for 4 they get back 11, 23, so they still get considerable draft value ...and they also get off WILLIAMS plus Giddey (if they have remorse about Giddey's deal) with a chance to wash it out with mostly expiring deals (129M outgoing, some of it really bad, with only 43M incoming). Thought-provoking proposition for CHI.

I can see various ways to tweak this, if needed, but I think the hinge points would be #4 and Giddey.

[F Gump]

On further reflection, I would not include GS. It doesn't help the rest of the trade, and I think PJW + 30 for Moody is a really bad deal for DAL, and don't think Horford adds any value to CHI. I also think Hield needs to stay in ATL - which leaves that part as Gafford for Kispert +23. I would try to add Johnson outgoing to either CHI or ATL. The result then looks like this.

Mavs get #4, Giddey, P. Williams, Kispert
Bulls get #11, #23, Klay, Martin [AJ Johnson?]
Hawks get Gafford, AJ Johnson

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Heat Central: The Heat are out looking for other teams to get involved to complete a Giannis trade, per “I want to point out, Giannis still could remain with the Bucks… but there is a belief he’s going to get moved by next weeks draft. The Miami Heat have been trying to get Giannis for months. They have been making offer to the Bucks for months. We have no deal. What we can take is the Bucks do not love what the Heat are offering and they are out looking for other options. They have been looking for other options. The Celtics ‘could’ get in there. We’ll see how that plays out.” -- Brian Windhorst

x.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Sources around the league say they believe Duren will get more than $30 million per year. The question for Detroit is how big that number will get. As Langdon said, a hefty price tag for Duren cuts down on the Pistons' future flexibility quite a bit.

ESPN

[F Gump]

Sources around the league say they believe Duren will get more than $30 million per year. The question for Detroit is how big that number will get. As Langdon said, a hefty price tag for Duren cuts down on the Pistons' future flexibility quite a bit.

ESPN

Good reminder - the teams packed with talent, tend to get stripped down in just a few years, because the salary increases for that talent don't continue to fit in the cap. OKC and SA are going to be staring at that waterfall ahead soon (OKC begins this summer), as they try to keep their talent together. "Dynasties" of multi-year titles will be really hard to make happen as teams have to splinter over money.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

On further reflection, I would not include GS. It doesn't help the rest of the trade, and I think PJW + 30 for Moody is a really bad deal for DAL, and don't think Horford adds any value to CHI. I also think Hield needs to stay in ATL - which leaves that part as Gafford for Kispert +23. I would try to add Johnson outgoing to either CHI or ATL. The result then looks like this.

Mavs get #4, Giddey, P. Williams, Kispert
Bulls get #11, #23, Klay, Martin [AJ Johnson?]
Hawks get Gafford, AJ Johnson

You can't leave out GS because that's where you get #11. GS does it because PJ immediately fits Curry's timeline. The Mavs need #11 so that they can keep #9.

(One tweak is perhaps you could get Chicago to take Hield instead of Horford, who would make for an amazing end of the bench vet in expiring deal.)

Let's just unravel a best case of this trade and draft for next year assuming the Mavs keep Kyrie and everyone else:

M. Brown, Giddey, Moody
Kyrie, Christie, Kispert 
Flagg, Naji, Poulakidas 
Wilson, P. Williams 
Lively, Cisse, Horford 

The Mavs would still have their MLE.

Edit: I moved Giddey to be the 6th man. I think he'd thrive there, playing against teams' bench guards.

[michaeltex]

A combination of the Mavs, Warriors, Bulls and Hawks trade:

Mavs get #4, Giddey, P. Williams, Kispert, Hield and Moody
Bulls get #11, #23, Klay, Martin and Horford
Warriors get #30 and PJ
Hawks get Gafford

The Mavs take on a LOT of bad money, but end up with #4. This is how they can get Wilson and a guard at #9.

DAL keeps #9 as well?

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

DAL keeps #9 as well?

Yes. Remember at the time of the Wizards/AD trade when it was discussed how the Mavs would be getting the value on the back end with cap flexibility? Well, this is it.

The Mavs would be taking on $194 million in semi-bad to terri-bad longterm money. The gymnastics are essentially:
PJ gets #11 + injured Moody
Gafford gets #23 (plus some bad money)
#11 + #23 plus taking on bad money gets #4

Why does Chicago do this? If they don't think Wilson is a true franchise player, why take him, especially when they already have a very similar player in Buzelis?  They could still get a quality player at #11 while their new GM gets to start the books completely over and build the team the way he wants it. It would make Chicago a MONSTER in terms of cap space next off-season. 

If Masai truly does believe "free agency is dead", then this is how he can best use the flexibility while Cooper's price tag is low.

But, yes, the Mavs would still have #9. Dallas would add two blue chips next to Flagg.

[Jakeospikez]

What's the main benefit of trading Kyrie this offseason? Is it because people just fall in love with the current draft class and want to do what they can to get multiple players? He's not gonna net a lottery pick in this draft without some other weirdness. Is it really that bad to wait until the TDL or next offseason. Highly likely the Mavs draft a potential lead guard prospect, shouldn't that player get at least a season to play and practice with Kyrie to accelerate their growth and give them that once in a lifetime experience? Decent chance he improves his value coming off the acl injury since it's probably low right now. Inexperienced teams don't win, so any full series playoff experience a team gets is valuable. I don't think the roster is that far off from being able to win a playoff series and not just be eliminated in the playin. OKC is very young but in terms of playoff experience they're pretty much vets already.

As far as him being pg goes, there's lots of data here where he lead the team with Luka out or just the minutes while Luka was on the bench. He's had some monster games with Luka out and the offense pretty much always looked fine. The reason why he gets paired with other high usage creators is because he has maybe the deepest bag in the league and can take anyone 1 on 1. Using him as a facilitator to just take on double teams all the time is wasting his talent.

Anyway it's likely gonna be about what Kyrie wants. He's got the pull and connections to do whatever so if he wants to get traded somewhere they'll probably accommodate what he wants to do.

[mvossman]

What's the main benefit of trading Kyrie this offseason? Is it because people just fall in love with the current draft class and want to do what they can to get multiple players? He's not gonna net a lottery pick in this draft without some other weirdness. Is it really that bad to wait until the TDL or next offseason. Highly likely the Mavs draft a potential lead guard prospect, shouldn't that player get at least a season to play and practice with Kyrie to accelerate their growth and give them that once in a lifetime experience? Decent chance he improves his value coming off the acl injury since it's probably low right now. Inexperienced teams don't win, so any full series playoff experience a team gets is valuable. I don't think the roster is that far off from being able to win a playoff series and not just be eliminated in the playin. OKC is very young but in terms of playoff experience they're pretty much vets already.

As far as him being pg goes, there's lots of data here where he lead the team with Luka out or just the minutes while Luka was on the bench. He's had some monster games with Luka out and the offense pretty much always looked fine. The reason why he gets paired with other high usage creators is because he has maybe the deepest bag in the league and can take anyone 1 on 1. Using him as a facilitator to just take on double teams all the time is wasting his talent.

Anyway it's likely gonna be about what Kyrie wants. He's got the pull and connections to do whatever so if he wants to get traded somewhere they'll probably accommodate what he wants to do.

The reason to trade him this offseason would be because you get a good offer that might not be there at the TDL.  Sometimes its easier for teams to trade for a big salary during the offseason than at the TDL.  He might have more value because you get him for the full year.  There is risk that he is not the same player he was two years ago before the injury and there is risk that he gets another big injury and tanks his value (see AD).  After this coming season, he has a team option.  He could opt out and bail and they lose him for nothing, or he could opt in and have one last year on his contract to trade, or he could opt out and they S&T him.  Given the contract situation and the fact that he will be a year older, its hard to think his value will be higher at the end of the season.  

His peak value is probably at the TDL, but there is an argument to pull the trigger now if you get a good enough offer.  There is probably some truth to your last paragraph, especially if he wants out.  But I'm not sure Kyrie wanting to stay means he is going to stay.  Masai has history of trading established big name players like Carmelo (although he wanted out), Rudy Gay and DeRozen (who had just finished 8th in MVP voting).  So far they have been very thorough in communicating they have no interest in trading Kyrie, but apparently Masai told DeRozen he was not going to trade him just days before he traded him, so I'm not sure how serious to read the comments/rumors.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The reason to trade him this offseason would be because you get a good offer that might not be there at the TDL.  Sometimes its easier for teams to trade for a big salary during the offseason than at the TDL.  He might have more value because you get him for the full year.  There is risk that he is not the same player he was two years ago before the injury and there is risk that he gets another big injury and tanks his value (see AD).  After this coming season, he has a team option.  He could opt out and bail and they lose him for nothing, or he could opt in and have one last year on his contract to trade, or he could opt out and they S&T him.  Given the contract situation and the fact that he will be a year older, its hard to think his value will be higher at the end of the season.  

His peak value is probably at the TDL, but there is an argument to pull the trigger now if you get a good enough offer.  There is probably some truth to your last paragraph, especially if he wants out.  But I'm not sure Kyrie wanting to stay means he is going to stay.  Masai has history of trading established big name players like Carmelo (although he wanted out), Rudy Gay and DeRozen (who had just finished 8th in MVP voting).  So far they have been very thorough in communicating they have no interest in trading Kyrie, but apparently Masai told DeRozen he was not going to trade him just days before he traded him, so I'm not sure how serious to read the comments/rumors.

The only thing I'll add is there are a number of potential suitors right now...maybe 5 or more.  That creates a market.  The TDL might create greater despiration among a smaller subset of teams, but you probably have more competition for Irving now than you will later.

You made a ton of good points.  I like it when people can have thoughtful and well reasoned discussions - as opposed to when people say things like I don't know why people just want to give Kyrie away for nothing.  Maybe I missed the post that said that.  If so, my bad.  I think the rest of us are trying to figure out what range of outcomes seems within the realm of possibilities.

[F Gump]

The reason to trade him this offseason would be because you get a good offer that might not be there at the TDL.  Sometimes its easier for teams to trade for a big salary during the offseason than at the TDL.  He might have more value because you get him for the full year.  There is risk that he is not the same player he was two years ago before the injury and there is risk that he gets another big injury and tanks his value (see AD).  After this coming season, he has a team option.  He could opt out and bail and they lose him for nothing, or he could opt in and have one last year on his contract to trade, or he could opt out and they S&T him.  Given the contract situation and the fact that he will be a year older, its hard to think his value will be higher at the end of the season.  

His peak value is probably at the TDL, but there is an argument to pull the trigger now if you get a good enough offer.  There is probably some truth to your last paragraph, especially if he wants out.  But I'm not sure Kyrie wanting to stay means he is going to stay.  Masai has history of trading established big name players like Carmelo (although he wanted out), Rudy Gay and DeRozen (who had just finished 8th in MVP voting).  So far they have been very thorough in communicating they have no interest in trading Kyrie, but apparently Masai told DeRozen he was not going to trade him just days before he traded him, so I'm not sure how serious to read the comments/rumors.

Melo is a reasonable comp for a possible Kyrie trade this summer, a trade of a star when M became a GM. But as you mentioned, that one happened because Melo was trying to force his way out - he was chasing a chance to play in NY - so M made the best deal and moved forward to build a team. If Kyrie starts making waves that he wants out, sure I think he gets traded; but if not, I don't see it happening.   

You mentioned Derozan, but that is not a realistic comp for what M might do in THIS type of situation at all. That's just a GM in a place he has been for quite some time making a trade of a good player to get a better one (which is what it takes sometimes), and he was offered a player who could take them to a title, if he will let go of DeRozan. So of course he did. Fast forward a half dozen years, and if he has a bunch of Robins (some of them fairly raw) needing a Batman, the DR deal is our comp for what he might do in THAT situation.

Rudy Gay was traded because he (with a big contract, and a ball stopper) didn't fit what TOR was building. That was their AD-to-Washington trade, basically -- a deal that freed up minutes, shots, and future payroll. They actually got MUCH better that same season, just by getting him out of the rotation.