2026 NBA draft thread

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie Top 10 NBA Draft Prospects Since 2015:
1. Victor Wembanyama,
2. Cooper Flagg,
3. Zion Williamson,
4. Cade Cunningham,
5. Karl-Anthony Towns,
6. AJ Dybantsa,
7. Cameron Boozer,
8. Darryn Peterson,
9. Ben Simmons,
10. Markelle Fultz

[Mavs2021]

The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie Top 10 NBA Draft Prospects Since 2015:
1. Victor Wembanyama,
2. Cooper Flagg,
3. Zion Williamson,
4. Cade Cunningham,
5. Karl-Anthony Towns,
6. AJ Dybantsa,
7. Cameron Boozer,
8. Darryn Peterson,
9. Ben Simmons,
10. Markelle Fultz

I try to find a logic where this does not look completely idiotic, but I can´t come up with one.

[Scott41theMavs]

The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie Top 10 NBA Draft Prospects Since 2015:
1. Victor Wembanyama,
2. Cooper Flagg,
3. Zion Williamson,
4. Cade Cunningham,
5. Karl-Anthony Towns,
6. AJ Dybantsa,
7. Cameron Boozer,
8. Darryn Peterson,
9. Ben Simmons,
10. Markelle Fultz

It was cool to see Flagg at #2 - until I saw the rest of the list and that he had Luka outside of the top ten. A person would have to have elephant crap for brains to think that, so yeah, not a great list.

[Dirknows]

One guy can change your fortunes for a decade.

I personally dont know enough about these guys to know who will be good but that's what Schmitz was hired for.  If he believes in one of these dudes over the others, you absolutely must trade up and get that guy.  

So when people on forums talk about all these guys are in the same tier so trade down and get more "value," I am strongly against that kind of thinking.  Unless of course the talent evaluators you are paying millions of dollars to draft these players don't know any better than we do.

Definitely am in the trade up over trade down camp. It’s a strong possibility none of the point guards fall to 9. I’m personally a big fan of Mikel Brown Jr., if Masai and Schmitz identify a guy they think is gonna be a stud, I have no problems with them trading up to get them. Issue is, what do we really have that teams in front of us would want? 30 doesn’t move us up, Lakers 2029 might move us to 7? 6?

[mvossman]

One guy can change your fortunes for a decade.

I personally dont know enough about these guys to know who will be good but that's what Schmitz was hired for.  If he believes in one of these dudes over the others, you absolutely must trade up and get that guy.  

So when people on forums talk about all these guys are in the same tier so trade down and get more "value," I am strongly against that kind of thinking.  Unless of course the talent evaluators you are paying millions of dollars to draft these players don't know any better than we do.

It depends on how much he believes that.  We have watched guys getting paid millions of dollars missing all the time.  Even the good ones miss.  There are too many variables to get this right every time.  The risk of trading up is big, because its possible you were better off staying where you were and you took an asset hit.  The risk of trading down is that you don't know how things will play out.  That's actually another risk of trading up.  You don't know who would have fallen to you if you stayed where you were at.

So if there is a guy in that second tier that they think is significantly better than the others, and they either don't think he will fall to them or they like him so much they can't risk it, then you pull the trigger.  I'm sure these guys have different evaluations on their board than the rest of us, but it does not mean they like one enough (over the others) to take that risk.

[Winter]

I seriously doubt our FO will trade up to get a player between 5-8. It will cost too much for what amounts to a player in almost the same tier as #9.

I don't agree that moving down a few spots means a significant loss in value. That all depends on the players right after #9, the teams picking, and the Mavs ability to make a deal. At the end of the draft, there will an evaluation of what happened - picks and trades - and how the roster might change. I think we have to judge the whole draft in aggregate.

I would be surprised if the Mavs just got picks #9, #30, and #48, then called it a day, and everyone else on the Mavs current roster remained. But it's just as possible as any other scenario.

[Dirknows]

I seriously doubt our FO will trade up to get a player between 5-8. It will cost too much for what amounts to a player in almost the same tier as #9.

I don't agree that moving down a few spots means a significant loss in value. That all depends on the players right after #9, the teams picking, and the Mavs ability to make a deal. At the end of the draft, there will an evaluation of what happened - picks and trades - and how the roster might change. I think we have to judge the whole draft in aggregate.

I would be surprised if the Mavs just got picks #9, #30, and #48, then called it a day, and everyone else on the Mavs current roster remained. But it's just as possible as any other scenario.

Different scenario and front office, but we traded up for Luka. If the front office identifies a guy, he becomes Coopers stud running mate, none of us will care about what we gave up to get them. It definitely is a huge risk, and I do believe there will be all star players drafted who aren’t in the 5-8 tier. I’m just gonna trust the front office to make the right move.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

It depends on how much he believes that.  We have watched guys getting paid millions of dollars missing all the time.  Even the good ones miss.  There are too many variables to get this right every time.  The risk of trading up is big, because its possible you were better off staying where you were and you took an asset hit.  

Losing PJ Washington or Daniel Gafford or Max Christie is a risk I'm willing to take.  I don't know man.  The whole point of doing this (being a GM) is to say I'm one of the best in the world at this job.  I think this guy is going to be a stud.  I don't care what NBA mock drafts say about value.  My goal is to come out of this draft with this player.

Inversely, I am against trading down for the exact same reason.  Like, I dont want to risk getting a worse player so I can pick up some rotation player asset like Daniel Gafford or Max Christie.  Basketball feels different.  Only 5 guys on the court.  If you hit on 2-3, you're set.  F value.

I think fans just aggregate all the mock drafts they see and make their own narrative about what is value. It really should have no bearing on reality unless you got a GM with no balls. Oh a bunch of mock drafts say Burries goes at 9-10. If we trade down and get him 12, oh wow such value. It doesn't really matter in the end if you got good value and some spare asset to go with it. It really just matter who ends up being good.

I am feeling very philosophical today.  lol

[KillerLeft]

Losing PJ Washington or Daniel Gafford or Max Christie is a risk I'm willing to take.  I don't know man.  The whole point of doing this (being a GM) is to say I'm one of the best in the world at this job.  I think this guy is going to be a stud.  I don't care what NBA mock drafts say about value.  My goal is to come out of this draft with this player.

Inversely, I am against trading down for the exact same reason.  Like, I dont want to risk getting a worse player so I can pick up some rotation player asset like Daniel Gafford or Max Christie.  Basketball feels different.  Only 5 guys on the court.  If you hit on 2-3, you're set.  F value.

I think fans just aggregate all the mock drafts they see and make their own narrative about what is value.  It really should have no bearing on reality unless you got a GM with no balls.

I am feeling very philosophical today.  lol

I wish I could like this post twice. Tiers are one thing, but even if the players are arranged accurately into tiers, they're not close to being interchangeable. If there's a guy the front office has identified as having a deeper bag of skills and more potential than the rest, as well as the right personality traits required to fit in here and kill himself to get to the next level (neither of which are givens), then I absolutely think it's worth aggressively trying to move up to get him.

It seems like many on the board believe the players from around 5 to 15ish are all the exact, same quality of prospect. If they're right, then trading down might be smart, but I can't even begin to fathom how they've reached that conclusion. I think the biggest gap in this draft is between tiers 2 and 3, personally, and my goal as a GM would be to identify all of the players from the top 10 I really, really wanted, and then to aggressively pursue the highest name on that list I had a snowball's chance in hell of getting. To a certain extent, this IS the Flagg era on the line this summer. The rookie contract part of it, at least. One GREAT addition moves the needle 100x more than 2-3 mediocre ones.

[Winter]

I wish I could like this post twice. Tiers are one thing, but even if the players are arranged accurately into tiers, they're not close to being interchangeable. If there's a guy the front office has identified as having a deeper bag of skills and more potential than the rest, as well as the right personality traits required to fit in here and kill himself to get to the next level (neither of which are givens), then I absolutely think it's worth aggressively trying to move up to get him.

It seems like many on the board believe the players from around 5 to 15ish are all the exact, same quality of prospect. If they're right, then trading down might be smart, but I can't even begin to fathom how they've reached that conclusion. I think the biggest gap in this draft is between tiers 2 and 3, personally, and my goal as a GM would be to identify all of the players from the top 10 I really, really wanted, and then to aggressively pursue the highest name on that list I had a snowball's chance in hell of getting. To a certain extent, this IS the Flagg era on the line this summer. The rookie contract part of it, at least. One GREAT addition moves the needle 100x more than 2-3 mediocre ones.

I don't think the Mavs have the assets to aggressively go after any player with picks - they don't have enough. That's why I say the current picks 1-4 are probably too expensive for the Mavs. That's OK by me, I just think it's less realistic for that kind of movement. Not impossible of course.

For me personally I just think there's easily a tier 1, a very fuzzy tier 2, and then the rest of the players. And there are likely real gems in the "rest of the players". There are also some interesting players between 10-20 that some GMs may value more highly, hence my "fuzzy" description. Almost all the Michigan players fall into that category. Quaintance has always been a wild card. Lopez has risen slowly. Tankathon still has Morez Johnson at #22, and I haven't heard anyone who thinks he'll get picked there. We just don't know how the mid-First round picks are valued by our GMs. 

I don't think our GM is going to go all Yang Hansen on us, but a move down to get two picks is far more likely in my opinion than moving up. Or maybe a trade to get a second pick on top of our #9. Either of those really may be doable with the right dance partner.

[KillerLeft]

For me personally I just think there's easily a tier 1, a very fuzzy tier 2, and then the rest of the players.

Yeah, it's not that I don't understand your thinking, it's just that I think you're wrong.

[Winter]

Yeah, it's not that I don't understand your thinking, it's just that I think you're wrong.

On tiers? I think that's more or less arbitrary.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie Top 10 NBA Draft Prospects Since 2015:
1. Victor Wembanyama,
2. Cooper Flagg,
3. Zion Williamson,
4. Cade Cunningham,
5. Karl-Anthony Towns,
6. AJ Dybantsa,
7. Cameron Boozer,
8. Darryn Peterson,
9. Ben Simmons,
10. Markelle Fultz

I actually respect his take here. It's sooooooooo easy to look back and judge who turned out to be the best players in the last ten years. What he's saying is that, at the time of the draft, who was perceived to be the most generational at time. Obviously, anyone could make a list and say "SGA was a top 10 player". In other words, as much as people want to act like they know who will be the best player in this draft, even with the #1 pick, it's still a crapshoot.

[F Gump]

With the talk about wanting the Mavs to trade up for their best target, I am idly wondering what it might take to trade up to pick 3 or 4. That would be worth it. Trading up to pick 5-8 seems like a waste of assets, since almost anyone in the 5-to-10 group might end up in your lap anyhow.

[Dirknows]

With the talk about wanting the Mavs to trade up for their best target, I am idly wondering what it might take to trade up to pick 3 or 4. That would be worth it. Trading up to pick 5-8 seems like a waste of assets, since almost anyone in the 5-to-10 group might end up in your lap anyhow.

I remember in 2017 when we picked 9 we were all happy about DSJ falling to us. And he ended up being bad enough for us to be in position to draft Luka in 2018. But without hindsight, wouldn’t you rather of us traded up to 5 to get Fox or Lauri at 7 instead of taking the last of the 2017 “top-9.” At the same time, this draft has feels of 2017 as I’m pretty sure at least 2 guys drafted in the 10-20 range will become all stars à la Mitchell and Bam. I don’t know, I’m just gonna trust Masai.

[DallasMaverick]

Unless of course the talent evaluators you are paying millions of dollars to draft these players don't know any better than we do.

Bingo.

It’s all just guessing. Some are slightly better at guessing than others.

[mvossman]

I wish I could like this post twice. Tiers are one thing, but even if the players are arranged accurately into tiers, they're not close to being interchangeable. If there's a guy the front office has identified as having a deeper bag of skills and more potential than the rest, as well as the right personality traits required to fit in here and kill himself to get to the next level (neither of which are givens), then I absolutely think it's worth aggressively trying to move up to get him.

It seems like many on the board believe the players from around 5 to 15ish are all the exact, same quality of prospect. If they're right, then trading down might be smart, but I can't even begin to fathom how they've reached that conclusion. I think the biggest gap in this draft is between tiers 2 and 3, personally, and my goal as a GM would be to identify all of the players from the top 10 I really, really wanted, and then to aggressively pursue the highest name on that list I had a snowball's chance in hell of getting. To a certain extent, this IS the Flagg era on the line this summer. The rookie contract part of it, at least. One GREAT addition moves the needle 100x more than 2-3 mediocre ones.

So out of curiosity, who is in your tier 2?  Who would you spend the assets it would take to move up to 5 in order to make sure you got?

I think its hard to be confident enough to pay the assets to move up for "that guy".  That is why you don't see teams moving up that often in the draft.  Masai has been drafting for a long time and he has very little history of moving around in the draft.

[DallasMaverick]

I remember in 2017 when we picked 9 we were all happy about DSJ falling to us. And he ended up being bad enough for us to be in position to draft Luka in 2018. But without hindsight, wouldn’t you rather of us traded up to 5 to get Fox or Lauri at 7 instead of taking the last of the 2017 “top-9.” At the same time, this draft has feels of 2017 as I’m pretty sure at least 2 guys drafted in the 10-20 range will become all stars à la Mitchell and Bam. I don’t know, I’m just gonna trust Masai.

Should have traded down and taken Jarrett Allen at 22. Or OG at 23. Or Josh Hart at 30.

All those expert GM’s who made millions of dollars…just don’t know.

[KillerLeft]

So out of curiosity, who is in your tier 2?  Who would you spend the assets it would take to move up to 5 in order to make sure you got?

I feel I've been pretty careful to word things in terms of whether or not the Mavs have identified their guy from among the PG's in that tier. It's very possible that their opinions are just as guess-oriented and gut-feelingish as ours, but I kind of doubt it, since they have access to more info and the players themselves, and...idk, I guess I just really hope they have a better grasp than we do. 

But, I'll state it all again, for the 100th time, I guess: If you don't have a PG, and a very good one, you don't have a basketball team. The only thing that passes for a PG on the Mavs' roster right now is 34, coming off of an entire missed year and I wouldn't be surprised if he'd rather be somewhere else, since the team is quite literally starting over in basically every conceivable way this summer.

If you can get Peterson, great! If not, which seems likely, I could be talked into any of Wagler, Brown, Acuff, Flemings or Burries. But, just because I'm ok with lumping them together doesn't mean they're interchangeable. I'm watching YouTube highlights and listening to podcasts while I work on my real job. The guys who make these choices for a living had better not see those guys as interchangeable, because 1-2 of them will be misses and 1-2 of them will be stars. If the Mavs think they know which will be stars, or more accurately, if they've identified which of them they feel confident they can MAKE into a star, depending on them to fall to #9 in order to move the franchise forward seems like loser thinking to me.

[Mavs2021]

I remember in 2017 when we picked 9 we were all happy about DSJ falling to us. And he ended up being bad enough for us to be in position to draft Luka in 2018. But without hindsight, wouldn’t you rather of us traded up to 5 to get Fox or Lauri at 7 instead of taking the last of the 2017 “top-9.” At the same time, this draft has feels of 2017 as I’m pretty sure at least 2 guys drafted in the 10-20 range will become all stars à la Mitchell and Bam. I don’t know, I’m just gonna trust Masai.

I wanted us to tank and get the #1 odds, when we were last in January. Then I wanted us to tank next year again and take Luka. Then I wanted us to trade the saved Reddish pick + Porzingis picks to acquire a star C and win ten championships with Brunson, Doncic, Tatum/Markkanen and X, but I´m sure Cuban will tell us more about how great he handled that whole culture stretch.