2026 NBA draft thread

[Chicagojk]

Listened to the Ginovy interview with Zach Lowe right after the lottery drawing. Similar takes we have seen recently.

Thinks Peterson should be the top pick. Has seen AJ and Peterson on the floor together 8-10 times and never thought AJ was the better player.

Really high on Boozer. Also said some teams are really high on Wilson. Thought Boozer would be in contention at 1.

Said he doesn’t feel this is a legendary deep class. Top 5 yes. After that he thinks it is like other drafts. At 18, things get really slim. Btw this was reported before the pull outs. I think the draft is deeper than 18 though.

Really thinks Ament is a top 5-10 pick.

[hakeemfaan]

Ament. No. I started off a few weeks ago really liking him. A legit 6'10" guy with handles, who operates out of the perimteter and can get to the line will always find a place in this league. However, the more I watch his shot (regardless of his FT% and his workout video with AJ), the more I am inclined to say a hard no.

FWIW, I have moved away from the boom or bust mentality because this team needs players they can be more sure about. Not that there is any 100% guarantee when it comes to the draft, but playing the percentages, they have to go with Burries or Flemings if one of them is available (Flemings over Burries if both are available). Also, while I look at SA and the heights of their young players, OKC would have beaten them if at full strength. Heck, they probably would have won even without being at full strength, if they had better a better shooter than Dort. Putting the ball in the basket is still valuable and both Flemings and Burries can do that.

However, if Schmitz really said that they will look at players who would go higher if there is a redraft in a future year, the more it looks like they will take some high ceiling guy even if his current floor is lower than Flemings or Burries.

[Winter]

Most of the first round after #9 are all 20 years old or older. There are a few exceptions. The biggest exception is Jaden Quaintance at 18.9 years old. He probably has the highest ceiling of anyone after #9. He is such a project though, that I'm not certain he'll get many minutes as a rookie. It's really hard to know who takes a chance on him and where. But he does fit within Schmitz's comments about youth (even though I don't know how serious to take that).

A few others under 20 are Karim Lopez, Allen Graves, Ebuka Okorie, Meleek Thomas, Koa Peat, and Chris Cenac all at 19. Most of the players at #9 or below are right at 20 years old. These include Mikel Brown, Burries, Carr, Johnson, Philon, Evans, Steinbach, and Swain. Late in the first round are guys like Karaban, Stirtz, and Jefferson who are all over 22.

The two oldest players in the First Round are Karaban and Lendeborg. It's going to be interesting to see where Lendeborg goes in the draft. He certainly would have been a top 5-10 lottery pick if he were 19 years old. I'm curious to see how much teams penalize older players with that kind of skill.

Nearly all of the 2nd round is over 21 years old and most over 22. For me, the most interesting pick in the 2nd round is Baba Miller, but Tarris Reed, Brazile, J. Bradley are right up there. Lots of small guards in this round.

[Scott41theMavs]

Most of the first round after #9 are all 20 years old or older. There are a few exceptions.  The biggest exception is Jaden Quaintance at 18.9 years old. He probably has the highest ceiling of anyone after #9. He is such a project though, that I'm not certain he'll get many minutes as a rookie. It's really hard to know who takes a chance on him and where. But he does fit within Schmitz's comments about youth (even though I don't know how serious to take that).

A few others under 20 are Karim Lopez, Allen Graves, Ebuka Okorie, Meleek Thomas, Koa Peat, and Chris Cenac all at 19. Most of the players at #9 or below are right at 20 years old. These include Mikel Brown, Burries, Carr, Johnson, Philon, Evans, Steinbach, and Swain. Late in the first round are guys like Karaban, Stirtz, and Jefferson who are all over 22.

The two oldest players in the First Round are Karaban and Lendeborg. It's going to be interesting to see where Lendeborg goes in the draft. He certainly would have been a top 5-10 lottery pick if he were 19 years old. I'm curious to see how much teams penalize older players with that kind of skill.

Nearly all of the 2nd round is over 21 years old and most over 22. For me, the most interesting pick in the 2nd round is Baba Miller, but Tarris Reed, Brazile, J. Bradley are right up there. Lots of small guards in this round.

I saw a recent post-withdrawals mock that had Baba going to us at 30. Yesterday's mid-2nd rounder is now a late first-rounder due to all the withdrawals.

[Winter]

I saw a recent post-withdrawals mock that had Baba going to us at 30. Yesterday's mid-2nd rounder is now a late first-rounder due to all the withdrawals.

I saw that too, and it would not surprise me at all if someone took a chance on him in the first-round. 

Tarris Reed and Baba Miller are the two most interesting players after #30 and are usually slotted right on the cusp of rounds 1 and 2. Miller might be just a little more of a project, but he has a huge upside as a big wing. I'm not sure we can get either player at #30, but I'd be more than happy if we could get one of them.

[mvossman]

Ament. No.  I started off a few weeks ago really liking him.  A legit 6'10" guy with handles, who operates out of the perimteter and can get to the line will always find a place in this league.  However, the more I watch his shot (regardless of his FT% and his workout video with AJ), the more I am inclined to say a hard no. 

FWIW, I have moved away from the boom or bust mentality because this team needs players they can be more sure about.  Not that there is any 100% guarantee when it comes to the draft, but playing the percentages, they have to go with Burries or Flemings if one of them is available (Flemings over Burries if both are available).  Also, while I look at SA and the  heights of their young players, OKC would have beaten them if at full strength. Heck, they probably would have won even without being at full strength, if they had better a better shooter than Dort.  Putting the ball in the basket is still valuable and both Flemings and Burries can do that.

However, if Schmitz really said that they will look at players who would go higher if there is a redraft in a future year, the more it looks like they will take some high ceiling guy even if his current floor is lower than Flemings or Burries.

I'm a little worried about this as well.  Its one thing to take big swings when you are an ESPN analyst, but when you already have Flagg and desperately need to add core young pieces, I think there is an argument for playing it a little safer at 9.  Save the big swing for later in the draft.

[Torielp10]

I’m starting to like ament a lot. He brings something to the table that’s unique with his size and handle. If he can improve his shot making he’s going to be good!!

[KillerLeft]

I’m starting to like ament a lot. He brings something to the table that’s unique with his size and handle. If he can improve his shot making he’s going to be good!!

Yep, and there's the rub. If his shotmaking was already there, he'd be going in the top 4 and most teams wouldn't have a shot at him. But, if someone takes him 5-10 and he never becomes a consistent scorer they've thrown a chance at an impact player in the dirt. And, it's not a thing you can really predict with certainty, no matter how much info you have. So many variables will play a part. Will he fit in with the team that drafts him? Get along with the coaches and other players? Feel at home and welcome in the city and organization? Will his new team give him the room and support he needs to flourish? I mean, the male brain doesn't even finish developing until around age 25 or so. It's all such a huge gamble.

[mvossman]

Yep, and there's the rub. If his shotmaking was already there, he'd be going in the top 4 and most teams wouldn't have a shot at him. But, if someone takes him 5-10 and he never becomes a consistent scorer they've thrown a chance at an impact player in the dirt. And, it's not a thing you can really predict with certainty, no matter how much info you have. So many variables will play a part. Will he fit in with the team that drafts him? Get along with the coaches and other players? Feel at home and welcome in the city and organization? Will his new team give him the room and support he needs to flourish? I mean, the male brain doesn't even finish developing until around age 25 or so. It's all such a huge gamble.

I'm not sure he is top 4 with the shot making.  He does not have the offensive creation upside as the top 3 guys, and he does not have the defensive upside of Wilson.  He has the potential to be a really good player, but I don't see superstar upside with him.  I think guys like Acuff and Brown have as much upside as him and he has a lot farther to get there.

[Winter]

I think every GM has to think about a draft pick a certain way. In Ament's case, he is a unique physical archetype. That's the attractive part. So what we don't know exactly is how much of his game play - the part we see in video clips - is weighted in his selection as opposed to his physical atributes. In shorthand, how much of his game can be fixed by good NBA coaching?

I don't have any idea. I'm glad though, that the decision in not charged to Nico (or Cuban).

[KillerLeft]

I'm not sure he is top 4 with the shot making.  He does not have the offensive creation upside as the top 3 guys, and he does not have the defensive upside of Wilson.  He has the potential to be a really good player, but I don't see superstar upside with him.  I think guys like Acuff and Brown have as much upside as him and he has a lot farther to get there.

Hard disagree. a 6'10" wing (not someone people wish was a wing, but an actual wing) who can handle the ball, create for others and get shots off from all three levels (and hit them)...I'd have him #3 in this draft, personally. But, it's not a big deal because he isn't that guy. Not yet, at least. 

On a separate note, I personally think the "defensive upside of Wilson" is almost as big of a gamble as Ament's scoring becoming consistent. I'm encountering more and more smart people who say he was straight up "bad," defensively thins year. Obviously he has the tools (so does Ament) but I think there's a world in which he's a Patrick Williams level bust, and I'm pretty relieved he won't be there for the Mavs.

[hakeemfaan]

I'm not sure he is top 4 with the shot making.  He does not have the offensive creation upside as the top 3 guys, and he does not have the defensive upside of Wilson.  He has the potential to be a really good player, but I don't see superstar upside with him.  I think guys like Acuff and Brown have as much upside as him and he has a lot farther to get there.

Even if Ament pans out, I don't know if he will ever be a scoring type. He seems like a good jack of all trades glue guy who will fill out the stat sheet but not be remarkable at anything.  I could be wrong because I didn't think Coop would turn out to be the scorer he was, but Coop has incredible finishing skills around the rim, which Ament is poor at, and a much more solid mid range game than Ament.

If one of the 2nd tier guards after Peterson drops to the Mavs, the Mavs HAVE TO  get that player. It will help Coop , Kyrie and , by extension, the team so much.

[vfromlmf]

Look at it this way: the only other guys the Mavs have who are even close to Ament's size on the wing are PJW and Naji ...and neither one of them can shoot.

Oh, and you have Flagg -- but he can't shoot threes either! Of course, he's obviously talented and we all think he'll improve, right?

I think Ament can and will improve as a shooter because, like Flagg, he's talented and high character -- AND he has a strong history as a shooter. During his junior and senior years at high school, he was widely regarded as an elite recruit and versatile shooter. But like many high-volume freshman prospects, his overall efficiency fluctuated.

A standout six-game run during the heart of conference play where he shot 13-26 from three provides a look at his peak efficiency compared to his full-season totals. In another six-game stretch of conference play, he averaged 23.0 points while hitting 44.6% from the field and 37.5% from three. His mid-range shooting jumping from 24% in his first nine games to 39% in his next seven. Small sample but he only played 35 games as a freshman and he was playing injured in the postseason.

If Ament is there at 9 the Mavs have to take him and develop him. He's the only potentially obtainable guy besides Brown who I think could become the second best player on a championship team.

[KillerLeft]

If Ament is there at 9 the Mavs have to take him and develop him. He's the only potentially obtainable guy besides Brown who I think could become the second best player on a championship team.

I'm not 100% there with the above, but I can see the thought process. I think Flemings could be on this list, too, but he'd require a long range shooting overhaul to get there, just like Ament. Still...two feet in the paint still matters, and Flemings is ready to help in that way from day 1.

I didn't even start checking these guys out until after the lottery, and even in that truncated amount of time I've flip-flopped about 10 times on what I think, so I can't imagine how it has been for you guys following this class all season, lol. I think I've settled (finally) on Brown being the perfect Mavs target (other than Peterson, who they can't get), but sadly, I'm fairly certain he (Brown) doesn't make it to #9. I'm trying to warm up to the possibility of Ament, because I know Flemings just isn't a flavor everyone appreciates, and it isn't clear whether the Mavs will like him as much as I do.

[hakeemfaan]

Look at it this way: the only other guys the Mavs have who are even close to Ament's size on the wing are PJW and Naji ...and one neither of them can shoot.

Oh, and you have Flagg -- but he can't shoot threes either! Of course, he's obviously talented and we all think he'll improve, right?

I think Ament can and will improve as a shooter because, like Fladd, he's talented and high character -- AND he has a strong history as a shooter. During his junior and senior years at high school, he was widely regarded as an elite recruit and versatile shooter. But like many high-volume freshman prospects, his overall efficiency fluctuated.

A standout six-game run during the heart of conference play where he shot 13-26 from three provides a look at his peak efficiency compared to his full-season totals. In another six-game stretch of conference play, he averaged 23.0 points while hitting 44.6% from the field and 37.5% from three. His mid-range shooting jumping from 24% in his first nine games to 39% in his next seven. Small sample but he only played 35 games as a freshman and he was playing injured in the postseason.

If Ament is there at 9 the Mavs have to take him and develop him. He's the only potentially obtainable guy besides Brown who I think could become the second best player on a championship team.

My problem with Ament is this.  If you had someone in college who could finish at the rim very well and was shooting FTs very well, you can say, that he can work on the jump shot and get better at it.  If you had someone who shot FTs very well, shot the ball very well, but had poor finishing skills, you can hope that with a bit more strength he would be able to get better around the rim. 

This guy literally lacks 2 of those things right now. He is not a good shooter and he is a poor finisher.  I know he had a late growth spurt and maybe it has affected him, but I would think growth spurt will help with finishing around the rim.  So it tells me he was poor in at least that area

Again if we were 12 or below, I would not have an issue given that other players who are available might also have significant issues.  However, at 9, in this particular draft, we will have the option of getting a guard who will have much more proven skills at scoring.  This team better be extremely sure if they bypass that and go and get Ament, knowing there are multiple areas as a scorer that he has to dramatically improve.

[KillerLeft]

Hakeem, I don't think you have to worry about it. I won't be surprised if a team above the Mavs takes the challenge with Ament. 6'10" wings just don't come around very often, and I suspect someone will fall in love.

[Chicagojk]

I need to go back and look at Wagler and Acuff. I pretty much decided I am pro Flemings. I didn’t think any of them would reach 9. I will be surprised if Acuff drops there but it sounds like I need to go back on Wagler.

I was at a place where I would have all three over both Brown and Burries. I think I will have Ament in this group as well. It would be great to have one of my higher rated guards drop to us.

Philon, Okorie, Anderson, Stirtz, Kayil (no idea if he is in this range)….that is a lot of point guard only prospects. A few could fall a bit. Am I missing any?

[mvossman]

Hard disagree. a 6'10" wing (not someone people wish was a wing, but an actual wing) who can handle the ball, create for others and get shots off from all three levels (and hit them)...I'd have him #3 in this draft, personally. But, it's not a big deal because he isn't that guy. Not yet, at least. 

On a separate note, I personally think the "defensive upside of Wilson" is almost as big of a gamble as Ament's scoring becoming consistent. I'm encountering more and more smart people who say he was straight up "bad," defensively thins year. Obviously he has the tools (so does Ament) but I think there's a world in which he's a Patrick Williams level bust, and I'm pretty relieved he won't be there for the Mavs.

He doesn't have elite handles and his ability to create for others is limited.  He was asked to play on ball at Tennessee and struggled mightily.  I think his role in the NBA will be off the ball and when I think of Ament making shots I'm thinking more as a finisher (which he wasn't particularly good at in college either).

Wilson was not an elite defender at college, but by any metric he was better than Ament and he has better tools as well.  I did worry about his fit in the NBA and specifically with Flagg, but you are right that we will not have to worry about that.

[mvossman]

Hakeem, I don't think you have to worry about it. I won't be surprised if a team above the Mavs takes the challenge with Ament. 6'10" wings just don't come around very often, and I suspect someone will fall in love.

I hope your right.  Would mean more guard options.

[windjc]

I don’t understand something about this thread. Just a couple of weeks ago posters were giving their best picks and analysis etc etc. Now a few weeks removed from March Madness and a lot of these same guys are changing their opinions based on talking heads on podcasts.

Anyone else seeing this?