2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

Yeah, but even if they finish best case scenario at the 6 spot. They're far more likely to jump in the top 4 or slide back to 7 or 8 than stay at 6. Kind of crazy that the 6th spot only has an 8.6% chance of actually picking at #6.

There's no way to know how teams stack the guards in this draft. Even this board is all over the place. Either way, I think for me the drop off is really at 9. The top-4 are pretty locked in, then the stack of Guards. That rounds out the top 8 for me. The order won't really matter if the Mavs are getting the last man standing...

As long as Brown gets picked in the top 7 (a good chance) then I agree that 9 is the bigger cutoff.  I can get behind Wagler, but Brown seems like a big risk.  6th spot only has a 6% chance of picking 9 or worse, but 8th spot is nearly 40%.

[Smitty]

As long as Brown gets picked in the top 7 (a good chance) then I agree that 9 is the bigger cutoff.  I can get behind Wagler, but Brown seems like a big risk.  6th spot only has a 6% chance of picking 9 or worse, but 8th spot is nearly 40%.

Hopefully Brown is healthy for the tournament. He had some big games last month, highlighted by the 45-point game against NC State. He followed that up with 29, 29, 19, & 24 before going out with the bad back again. He was the top rated PG coming into the season, and has shown enough flashes, despite the injuries, to stay in that top 10 area of the draft. His size and willingness to shoot the 3 ball are definitely a plus, and things this team could use going forward. He still has one of the highest upsides for me long-term, possible one of the bigger bust potentials also. All of the guards have flaws. The Mavs may not get their pick of the bunch, but I'd be happy with any 4 of them, assuming they pick in the top 8 and the draft goes how I have it stacked.

[mvossman]

Hopefully Brown is healthy for the tournament. He had some big games last month, highlighted by the 45-point game against NC State. He followed that up with 29, 29, 19, & 24 before going out with the bad back again. He was the top rated PG coming into the season, and has shown enough flashes, despite the injuries, to stay in that top 10 area of the draft. His size and willingness to shoot the 3 ball are definitely a plus, and things this team could use going forward. He still has one of the highest upsides for me long-term, possible one of the bigger bust potentials also. All of the guards have flaws. The Mavs may not get their pick of the bunch, but I'd be happy with any 4 of them, assuming they pick in the top 8 and the draft goes how I have it stacked.

He definitely has upside, but the combination of poor shot selection and high turnover rate is concerning.  I think he is going to require some significant development, and I am not sure this is the place to do it.

[Mavs2021]

I like Brown´s game, but the back stuff scares me.

I just hope the sun shines out of the Mavs Nico one more time and they get Wilson. There is a decent chance that means you got 15 years of Scottie Pippen and Kevin Garnett; and that in five years these two are the best defensive players in the league. And then you imagine having a healthy Lively playing behind them. That´s in play. Guards move around a lot more in trades and free agency than forwards.

[Smitty]

@ArtTakesNote
I created a chart to show how the top freshman guards stack up offensively against each other. Here are their shooting percentages for different shot types:




I thought this was an interesting post on X from a few days ago. It doesn't show volume, which is probably just as important. It pretty much matches how I have these guys stacked also (Peterson-Acuff-Flemings-Brown-Wagler-Burries). Maybe I need to look into Burries even more. The few games I've watched I wasn't blown away.

Here's some more comparison between the top guards:

  Screenshot 2026-03-17 122801.png (Size: 7.6 KB / Downloads: 189)

[mvossman]

@ArtTakesNote
I created a chart to show how the top freshman guards stack up offensively against each other. Here are their shooting percentages for different shot types:




I thought this was an interesting post on X from a few days ago. It doesn't show volume, which is probably just as important. It pretty much matches how I have these guys stacked also (Peterson-Acuff-Flemings-Brown-Wagler-Burries). Maybe I need to look into Burries even more. The few games I've watched I wasn't blown away.

Here's some more comparison between the top guards:

I like Burries, but in my mind the Mavs should be focused on acquiring elite creation in this draft if at all possible.  This is their best chance to get it, and I think they should take a risk if they find themselves later in the lottery than they wanted.  So if the Mavs find themselves out of the top 8 then I would pick a guy like Philon over Burries for the chance he is that guy.

[Smitty]

I like Burries, but in my mind the Mavs should be focused on acquiring elite creation in this draft if at all possible.  This is their best chance to get it, and I think they should take a risk if they find themselves later in the lottery than they wanted.  So if the Mavs find themselves out of the top 8 then I would pick a guy like Philon over Burries for the chance he is that guy.

I've tried to like Philon because I've seen him ranked somewhere in the lottery throughout the year. Yes, he's made a big leap offensively this year vs his freshman season, but I just don't think he's anything special. I'll admit, he's the one I've watched the least. 3 games total. So, I'll have to tune in more during the tournament to see if my opinion of him changes any...

[Scott41theMavs]

Yeah, but even if they finish best case scenario at the 6 spot. They're far more likely to jump in the top 4 or slide back to 7 or 8 than stay at 6. Kind of crazy that the 6th spot only has an 8.6% chance of actually picking at #6.

There's no way to know how teams stack the guards in this draft. Even this board is all over the place. Either way, I think for me the drop off is really at 9. The top-4 are pretty locked in, then the stack of Guards. That rounds out the top 8 for me. The order won't really matter if the Mavs are getting the last man standing...

The Grizz and the Mavs (and those top 5 tank seed teams) are trying to lose games; the Pels are not. I would look for the Pels to win about 5-6 of their remaining games. They will finish #8 odds if not lower. The race is between the Mavs and the Grizz, for which the Mavs will have to be extremely disciplined in tanking the rest of the way. They probably cannot afford a single win more if they want to finish sixth. I would guess the Grizz don't win more than one more game, if that, the rest of the way.

The true goal is just to finish with as high of odds as possible and cross your fingers to move up. If they don't move up, then there's a chance they can get one of the small number of second tier guys if they finish sixth and end up with the seventh or eighth pick. There isn't much chance at all if they end up seventh and pick eighth or ninth. To me, it's clearly Dybantsa-Wilson-Peterson-Boozer-Acuff-Flemings, and then essentially a pupu platter of choices. There may be a star left on the board somewhere, but to me, that guy, whoever he is, is clearly a diamond in the rough whom a Presti-Nellie-Pop genius GM would have the skill and insight to be able to identify, although a lesser GM talent might luck into him. 

To reiterate, I am 100% out on Brown. I do not want him with a fox, I do not want him in a box, I do not want him to be our pick under any circumstances. Wagler is probably my pick for the seventh-best in the draft - if not the strangely-underrated Philon - but others have eloquently noted the major concerns with him. Yes, his ceiling is Haliburton. His floor is a very mediocre 3-and-D guard - not what you want to end up with the seventh or eighth pick in this draft. Intangibles are going to be simply gigantically important with him.

[cow]

...for which the Mavs will have to be extremely disciplined in tanking the rest of the way. 

I think we've shown between Kidd and our talent level, that isn't going to happen.

[Smitty]

To reiterate, I am 100% out on Brown. I do not want him with a fox, I do not want him in a box, I do not want him to be our pick under any circumstances. Wagler is probably my pick for the seventh-best in the draft - if not the strangely-underrated Philon - but others have eloquently noted the major concerns with him. Yes, his ceiling is Haliburton. His floor is a very mediocre 3-and-D guard - not what you want to end up with the seventh or eighth pick in this draft. Intangibles are going to be simply gigantically important with him.

That's why I say that everyone is different in how they rank these Guards. As I'm sure GM's of the lottery teams will be also. For me, Brown and Wagler are in a tier or two above guys like Burries, Philon, Mullins, Stirtz, Anderson. I still have Brown over Wagler, because I think he's the better creator of the two. I think Wagler fits the prototypical SG role in the NBA. Same for Peterson. Acuff, Flemings, and Brown are lead Guard types, creators and facilitators, that can score... and also play off-ball plenty.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think we've shown between Kidd and our talent level, that isn't going to happen.

Eh, I would be willing to sig bet you that there's no way they win more than 3 more games, which to me means they would be pretty much guaranteed to finish 7th in lottery odds. No way they finish behind the Pels.

[michaeltex]

Looking through some mock draft sites, I'm seeing Wagler/Brown/Acuff as the Mav's pick at 6/7, so I guess we can debate these guys until the actual draft order is established in mid-May.

For grins, I also looked at who was dialed in to DAL for the 30th pick and there was a lot more variation here. Of course it's a chancier pick, but there was no consensus on what DAL should pick. A few of the names I found were:

Juke Harris - SG Wake
Ebuka Okorie - PG
Joshua Jefferson - PF Iowa State
Isaiah Evans - SF Duke
Tounde Yessoufou - SF Baylor

I also looked at a couple of mocks that went into the 2nd round, and found even more variability

Alex Condon - C Florida
Faye - PF Senegal
Dash Daniels - PG/SG Melbourne United
Malik Reneau - PF Miami

[Winter]

Looking through some mock draft sites, I'm seeing Wagler/Brown/Acuff as the Mav's pick at 6/7, so I guess we can debate these guys until the actual draft order is established in mid-May.

For grins, I also looked at who was dialed in to DAL for the 30th pick and there was a lot more variation here. Of course it's a chancier pick, but there was no consensus on what DAL should pick. A few of the names I found were:

Juke Harris - SG Wake
Ebuka Okorie - PG
Joshua Jefferson - PF Iowa State
Isaiah Evans - SF Duke
Tounde Yessoufou - SF Baylor

I also looked at a couple of mocks that went into the 2nd round, and found even more variability

Alex Condon - C Florida
Faye - PF Senegal
Dash Daniels - PG/SG Melbourne United
Malik Reneau - PF Miami

I think a few of us are high on Evans simply because he looks like a good fit as a wing. I personally like Jefferson too. Even though he's a PF, he has a crazy assist stat for a PF (almost 5 per game).  An unusual playmaker at that position. Maybe a nice fit behind Flagg.

[Smitty]

Looking through some mock draft sites, I'm seeing Wagler/Brown/Acuff as the Mav's pick at 6/7, so I guess we can debate these guys until the actual draft order is established in mid-May.

For grins, I also looked at who was dialed in to DAL for the 30th pick and there was a lot more variation here. Of course it's a chancier pick, but there was no consensus on what DAL should pick. A few of the names I found were:

Juke Harris - SG Wake
Ebuka Okorie - PG
Joshua Jefferson - PF Iowa State
Isaiah Evans - SF Duke
Tounde Yessoufou - SF Baylor

I also looked at a couple of mocks that went into the 2nd round, and found even more variability

Alex Condon - C Florida
Faye - PF Senegal
Dash Daniels - PG/SG Melbourne United
Malik Reneau - PF Miami

Isaiah Evans, Dailyan Swain, and Meleek Thomas have been the 3 names I’ve liked all year. Some have risen on draft boards, depending on where you look, but they’ve remained my top guys for the second FRP the Mavs have.

I haven’t watched a Stanford game, but for some reason today, I was flooded with highlights of Okorie on my X feed. I was impressed.

[Dirknows]

Isaiah Evans, Dailyan Swain, and Meleek Thomas have been the 3 names I’ve liked all year. Some have risen on draft boards, depending on where you look, but they’ve remained my top guys for the second FRP the Mavs have.

I haven’t watched a Stanford game, but for some reason today, I was flooded with highlights of Okorie on my X feed. I was impressed.

Im kind of excited about pick 30 tbh. Way less pressure but still gonna be some good guys available there. At least one of Evans, Peat, Tounde, Lopez, Thomas or Carr should be there.

[Chicagojk]

https://archive.ph/uLz41

[vfromlmf]

I've tried to like Philon because I've seen him ranked somewhere in the lottery throughout the year. Yes, he's made a big leap offensively this year vs his freshman season, but I just don't think he's anything special. I'll admit, he's the one I've watched the least. 3 games total. So, I'll have to tune in more during the tournament to see if my opinion of him changes any...

I'm probably overrating Philon because of his defensive potential, but that's a projection so who knows if it will translate. He hasn't exactly been a lockdown defender this year. He does have lockdown traits though, and he was better last year when he wasn't shouldering such a heavy offensive burden. Offensively he seems to have a complete game and can score efficiently at all three levels. He takes a lot of step back threes that just look NBA caliber. Eye test stuff. He gets great separation and I think he'll be able to get his shot off in the NBA. He might be a safer pick that some others, or maybe not. He still has plenty of room to develop.

The worry with Wagler and also -- but less-so -- with Acuff is neither have tremendous athletic burst. Acuff may have a more difficult time getting paint shots off against longer and more athletic defenders. And Wagler doesn't even dunk in college. Both are great shooters though and no prospect is perfect. Both players could easily make GMs (and me) look like morons.

Brown Jr can be a superstar. Tough to rate him strictly on his college numbers though. He looked spectacular for a stretch but he's also played hurt didn't make a big statistical impact. I saw one game - don't remember which - but he didn't start and came off the bench after about two minutes. I wondered if he was in Coach's doghouse but it turns out he was still warming up his back. When he came in his presence changed the game pretty dramatically. He didn't do much though and I noticed he was wearing a back sleeve or warmer or something on the bench. The takeaway was, if he can enter a game a have that level of impact, while playing hurt and not shooting well ... well that's pretty special. 

Flemings' game is pretty boring--but that's on Houston. I'd really like to see what he could do if he were uncorked by a guy like Calipari. You can see the talent and he's the best player on one of the best teams in college basketball as a freshman. Plays T-H-E R-I-G-H-T W-A-Y. 

Really tough to rank these guys but I still have Flemings and Brown Jr in one tier and Acuff, Wagler, Philon a notch below. And Acuff is knocking on the door.

[vfromlmf]

I also don´t see these lightning quick Rose/Fox comparisons for Flemings. He seems fairly "normal". You see a Westbrook, the Thompson twins or in this draft Caleb Wilson move and you go WOW. I have never gone wow in any of Flemings´ highlights. He seems fairly crafty and good at changing pace, but there is no line drive or fast break acceleration that made me recognize next level speed.

Mark at 0:21 second

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K8jIt1DF6M

[Chicagojk]

Mara and Ngongba

Two big centers with nice passing skills. If Mavs got a wing or shooting guard, both could be nice options using them to run some offense through.

https://x.com/prospectreportt/status/202...72107?s=61


https://x.com/dukenba/status/1996223673271734445?s=61

[Chicagojk]

Next DFS? Probably not because I don’t think he will shoot it well enough. With that being said, I have not seen Mark Mitchell in many mocks. Could be a second round option. Former five star recruit who played at duke for two years before transferring to Missouri. He has had two good seasons at Missouri who made the tourney again.

https://youtu.be/TvlH-5eWI0g?si=RFop_SVLdPYi1sUc