2026 NBA draft thread

[Scott41theMavs]

As good as this draft is, 5-9 (some may have a few more in this grouping) really scare me.  All are having good seasons for freshman, but I think they fall in line with some past years...maybe with higher upside.  With that being said, I have no idea how to rate these players.  I can see wild swings of outcomes for all these guys.   Maybe watching them in the conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments will give me a better feel.   Not all in this grouping will work out.   It is just really hard to get a grip on which ones will hit.

I'm going to agree to disagree with you, but it might be a matter of semantics. We have seen guys in the top 9 in prior years who have been out of the league after a few years. I don't think that's the case with a single one of the 5-8 guys (Ament will be a bust). All will be competent starters as their floor. That's not to say they'll be perennial all-stars. One or two of them might.

[DallasMaverick]

As good as this draft is, 5-9 (some may have a few more in this grouping) really scare me.  All are having good seasons for freshman, but I think they fall in line with some past years...maybe with higher upside.  With that being said, I have no idea how to rate these players.  I can see wild swings of outcomes for all these guys.   Maybe watching them in the conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments will give me a better feel.   Not all in this grouping will work out.   It is just really hard to get a grip on which ones will hit.

Maybe that’s why expert professional general managers are sometimes wrong, too.

[Scott41theMavs]

Maybe that’s why expert professional general managers are sometimes wrong, too.

You keep saying stuff like that. 

I know that we as fans put too much attention and energy into our fandom, and that other things in life are really more important. That said, insofar as Mavs fandom does matter to me and others, it is franchise-determining that we get this draft right. If we don't, it will likely be years before we can establish a winning team, much less a contender, and in that event, we will see what Cooper is made of - whether winning or money is more important to him. 

Yes, a great GM can still botch a draft. But I would rather have a GM who has the skins on the wall to make that mistake than a Norm Sonju or Frank Zacchanelli or Mark Cuban type. Mostly because in that event it's far less likely to be a mistake.

[Chicagojk]

I'm going to agree to disagree with you, but it might be a matter of semantics. We have seen guys in the top 9 in prior years who have been out of the league after a few years. I don't think that's the case with a single one of the 5-8 guys (Ament will be a bust). All will be competent starters as their floor. That's not to say they'll be perennial all-stars. One or two of them might.

I just want to watch and read more.

Flemings- really haven't paid him much attention yet
Acuff- I really like.  My fear is he is 6'0 or 6'1.  If true, that may impact his draft position
Wagler- low recruit, lack of explosion/quickness.  Has not had a dunk the whole year
Brown- Looks the part, but after watching him for two games he is the type of prospect who scares me.
Ament- I think he has played better, but still some concerns about him.

I am not saying I don't like these guys but I just see wide variances of what they will become.   I will be really surprised if at least one has to fight for a second contract.   I think this tier is a bit better than last years grouping in this range, but that doesn't mean they are slam dunks.

Top top 3/4 would be franchise altering to the Mavs. The 5-9 is really tricky for me.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Top top 3/4 would be franchise altering to the Mavs.  The 5-9 is really tricky for me.

OKC picks at 12 and 16 starting to look good in a trade down.

[Scott41theMavs]

OKC picks at 12 and 16 starting to look good in a trade down.

In spite of what I said earlier about the 5-8 range (no Ament) being at least starters, if there is a star available where the Mavs pick, it's imperative to the future of the franchise that we get that guy. 

If we hire Presti, and he thinks there's no star where we pick but there might be two starters (for the price of one!) at the OKC picks, then I would trade down from that range. Under no other circumstances would I be happy with that as a Mavs fan.

[vfromlmf]

re Wagler: Illinois plays nearly the slowest pace in college basketball but their adjusted offensive efficiency is 1st in the nation. I don't know if that's all Wagler -- certainly not -- but he is super composed and not in a hurry to do anything. He plays very noticeably slow. That could be on the coach, or it could just be the way Wagler likes to play.

Kidd likes to play fast. That could be because of Mavs' current personnel but I don't think so. He tried to get Luka to play faster even while Luka led one of the best offenses in the league.

I really like Wagler but I don't see a great match for him in Dallas.

[Scott41theMavs]

I just want to watch and read more.

Flemings- really haven't paid him much attention yet
Acuff- I really like.  My fear is he is 6'0 or 6'1.  If true, that may impact his draft position
Wagler- low recruit, lack of explosion/quickness.  Has not had a dunk the whole year
Brown- Looks the part, but after watching him for two games he is the type of prospect who scares me.
Ament- I think he has played better, but still some concerns about him.

I am not saying I don't like these guys but I just see wide variances of what they will become.   I will be really surprised if at least one has to fight for a second contract.   I think this tier is a bit better than last years grouping in this range, but that doesn't mean they are slam dunks.

Top top 3/4 would be franchise altering to the Mavs.  The 5-9 is really tricky for me.

Could you elaborate re: Brown?

[Chicagojk]

Could you elaborate re: Brown?

Sure..this is going off a really small sample size and also aware that none of these guys are finished products.  If I could draw up a skillset, height and athleticism template, Brown would be very high on my list.    A guard who can create and play with other creators.

When I watched him though, I see a guy who takes a ton of tough shots.    Has trouble finishing at the rim. I also didn't feel him put much pressure on the other team setting up others for easy baskets.   His highlights look great.  I bought into the same thing with DSJ.    I really want to see him more, but I just have some concerns.

[mvossman]

Sure..this is going off a really small sample size and also aware that none of these guys are finished products.  If I could draw up a skillset, height and athleticism template, Brown would be very high on my list.    A guard who can create and play with other creators.

When I watched him though, I see a guy who takes a ton of tough shots.    Has trouble finishing at the rim. I also didn't feel him put much pressure on the other team setting up others for easy baskets.   His highlights look great.  I bought into the same thing with DSJ.    I really want to see him more, but I just have some concerns.

His numbers are concerning too.  He is not shooting particularly well and he turns the ball over a lot.  It may be that he is overcompensating for lack of teammate help, but I feel like he has the biggest bust potential of the 4 PGs.

[Winter]

His numbers are concerning too.  He is not shooting particularly well and he turns the ball over a lot.  It may be that he is overcompensating for lack of teammate help, but I feel like he has the biggest bust potential of the 4 PGs.

You're right I think, but I'll just say I suspect he won't be a bust. I just think he's going to need a few years to be good starter material. Probably more than either Flemmings or Acuff. The turnovers and poor shot selection are things that haunt rookies and he's already bad at both.

My guess is that both those things are fixable. But I also suspect his road in the NBA is going to be bumpier.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I didn't include Flemmings in here as don't see him available at pick 7, assuming that's where the Mavs would pick.
But I'd be okay with any of these guys.

Acuff looks small, well built but small. Doesn't wow me with anything he does, but looks good at the things he does nonetheless. He is a safe pick when you're set on taking a PG. He probably won't take a lot of time to be able to understand how to run an NBA team and would probably even be a starter once he gets it. But as an All-Star? Probably not.

Wagler to me would be the 3 and D's of PGs. Not a bad thing. I think his shooting would translate. I can see the fit with Flagg as Wagler spreads the floor more than any player in the draft. Wagler is just a threat to shoot. But his lack of explosiveness limits him to just that. A shooter who can bring the ball, up, play the PG spot decently and with his length won't be a defensive liability, but actually a plus on that side.

Ament lacks two three things: Foot speed, strength and the alpha mentality. Not worried about the last one. Dude isn't Josh Green who won't shoot, Ament is more likely the guy who wants to fit in first and then call his shots when he gets comfortable later on. That may be in year 2 or 3, so I don't expect Ament to be competing for any rookie awards. For handles? I know Josh Green is a low bar, but for a 6'10" dude, his handles are more advance than Green's. Ament has control, command for the battle and is smooth, he can pass, he can pull up from anywhere. Scouts are saying he plays small for his size, and it's true -- he doesn't have the strength to power thru, doesn't have the vertical to just dunk on people, he doesn't punish smaller players on the block. What Ament has is smooth jumper - a mundane standard jumper that is good now, and I don't see getting any worse. His height just allows him to shoot over people comfortably. Just like Acuff, Ament's a safe pick, but unlike Acuff, his height and skill has better chances to propel him to An-All-Star. Ament would only be a bust if you compare relative draft positions, but as a player? He is going to be useful.

None of Acuff, Ament and Wagler feels like an All-Star going to happen. They have their own set of utilities that could land them long NBA careers as good to very good players. A good third-wheel for your duo of stars. Starter level material who just couldn't cut All-Star status. All 3 are safe picks. Mikel Brown isn't. Brown looks the part of a future All-Star but also looks the part of someone who can be out of the NBA in year 7. High risk high reward for this one.

[Scott41theMavs]

I didn't include Flemmings in here as don't see him available at pick 7, assuming that's where the Mavs would pick.
But I'd be okay with any of these guys.

Acuff looks small, well built but small. Doesn't wow me with anything he does, but looks good at the things he does nonetheless. He is a safe pick when you're set on taking a PG. He probably won't take a lot of time to be able to understand how to run an NBA team and would probably even be a starter once he gets it. But as an All-Star? Probably not.

Wagler to me would be the 3 and D's of PGs. Not a bad thing. I think his shooting would translate. I can see the fit with Flagg as Wagler spreads the floor more than any player in the draft. Wagler is just a threat to shoot. But his lack of explosiveness limits him to just that. A shooter who can bring the ball, up, play the PG spot decently and with his length won't be a defensive liability, but actually a plus on that side.

Ament lacks two three things: Foot speed, strength and the alpha mentality. Not worried about the last one. Dude isn't Josh Green who won't shoot, Ament is more likely the guy who wants to fit in first and then call his shots when he gets comfortable later on. That may be in year 2 or 3, so I don't expect Ament to be competing for any rookie awards. For handles? I know Josh Green is a low bar, but for a 6'10" dude, his handles are more advance than Green's. Ament has control, command for the battle and is smooth, he can pass, he can pull up from anywhere. Scouts are saying he plays small for his size, and it's true -- he doesn't have the strength to power thru, doesn't have the vertical to just dunk on people, he doesn't punish smaller players on the block. What Ament has is smooth jumper - a mundane standard jumper that is good now, and I don't see getting any worse. His height just allows him to shoot over people comfortably. Just like Acuff, Ament's a safe pick, but unlike Acuff, his height and skill has better chances to propel him to An-All-Star. Ament would only be a bust if you compare relative draft positions, but as a player? He is going to be useful.

None of Acuff, Ament and Wagler feels like an All-Star going to happen. They have their own set of utilities that could land them long NBA careers as good to very good players. A good third-wheel for your duo of stars. Starter level material who just couldn't cut All-Star status. All 3 are safe picks. Mikel Brown isn't. Brown looks the part of a future All-Star but also looks the part of someone who can be out of the NBA in year 7. High risk high reward for this one.

Boy, if you're right, it's move up in the draft, or bust.

[Scott41theMavs]

It was the best of nights, it was the worst of nights. The bad is that the Grizz lost, and are now within 2.5 games of us. Cannot sleep on them. Must keep losing.

Meanwhile, the Jazz were unable to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the Nets won. Now a game and a half back (in tank standings) of the Jazz, four games back of the Nets.

[mvossman]

You're right I think, but I'll just say I suspect he won't be a bust. I just think he's going to need a few years to be good starter material. Probably more than either Flemmings or Acuff. The turnovers and poor shot selection are things that haunt rookies and he's already bad at both.

My guess is that both those things are fixable. But I also suspect his road in the NBA is going to be bumpier.

As someone else mentioned, I think the Mavs have had a lot more luck with guys that are NBA ready than guys that are projectable, which is why I would prefer the go the Flemings/Acuff route vs Brown.

[mvossman]

I didn't include Flemmings in here as don't see him available at pick 7, assuming that's where the Mavs would pick.
But I'd be okay with any of these guys.

Acuff looks small, well built but small. Doesn't wow me with anything he does, but looks good at the things he does nonetheless. He is a safe pick when you're set on taking a PG. He probably won't take a lot of time to be able to understand how to run an NBA team and would probably even be a starter once he gets it. But as an All-Star? Probably not.

Wagler to me would be the 3 and D's of PGs. Not a bad thing. I think his shooting would translate. I can see the fit with Flagg as Wagler spreads the floor more than any player in the draft. Wagler is just a threat to shoot. But his lack of explosiveness limits him to just that. A shooter who can bring the ball, up, play the PG spot decently and with his length won't be a defensive liability, but actually a plus on that side.

Ament lacks two three things: Foot speed, strength and the alpha mentality. Not worried about the last one. Dude isn't Josh Green who won't shoot, Ament is more likely the guy who wants to fit in first and then call his shots when he gets comfortable later on. That may be in year 2 or 3, so I don't expect Ament to be competing for any rookie awards. For handles? I know Josh Green is a low bar, but for a 6'10" dude, his handles are more advance than Green's. Ament has control, command for the battle and is smooth, he can pass, he can pull up from anywhere. Scouts are saying he plays small for his size, and it's true -- he doesn't have the strength to power thru, doesn't have the vertical to just dunk on people, he doesn't punish smaller players on the block. What Ament has is smooth jumper - a mundane standard jumper that is good now, and I don't see getting any worse. His height just allows him to shoot over people comfortably. Just like Acuff, Ament's a safe pick, but unlike Acuff, his height and skill has better chances to propel him to An-All-Star. Ament would only be a bust if you compare relative draft positions, but as a player? He is going to be useful.

None of Acuff, Ament and Wagler feels like an All-Star going to happen. They have their own set of utilities that could land them long NBA careers as good to very good players. A good third-wheel for your duo of stars. Starter level material who just couldn't cut All-Star status. All 3 are safe picks. Mikel Brown isn't. Brown looks the part of a future All-Star but also looks the part of someone who can be out of the NBA in year 7. High risk high reward for this one.

Don't think any draft has guys past the top 4 that you expect to be all stars.  That is a really high bar.  But honestly, I would not be surprised if Acuff turns into somebody like Garland (who already has a couple of AS appearances).

[Knutsen]

It was the best of nights, it was the worst of nights. The bad is that the Grizz lost, and are now within 2.5 games of us. Cannot sleep on them. Must keep losing.

Meanwhile, the Jazz were unable to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the Nets won. Now a game and a half back (in tank standings) of the Jazz, four games back of the Nets.

No chance at getting caught by the Nets, but things with the Jazz got interesting.

We have to lose these next two winnable games, then I like our odds because the Jazz have more hard to lose games left.

[F Gump]

It was the best of nights, it was the worst of nights. The bad is that the Grizz lost, and are now within 2.5 games of us. Cannot sleep on them. Must keep losing.

Meanwhile, the Jazz were unable to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the Nets won. Now a game and a half back (in tank standings) of the Jazz, four games back of the Nets.

GS was not on the list of teams that UT was thought to be at "risk" of beating, but the Warriors laid an egg.  Yay!!!

At this point, 0-18 is now a LOCK to land the Mavs at no worse than 6 (because NO still plays both DAL and UT), and has a VERY great chance to land the Mavs at 5.

Every game for the Mavs from here to the end is against a team higher in the standings, so the Mavs should be the underdog in them all. And the Mavs haven't won a single game as the underdog since Jan 22. 

I remain hopeful. Winning even a game or two opens the door to a lot of potential slippage. 

Seed 5, as a reminder, is most likely to end up as pick 7 (not 5), but it also has a 42% chance of landing somewhere in the top 4. While 1-4 is not where the top PGs are slotted, I think it's way better to get one of those top 4, as imo that's a FAR better likelihood of getting a star player (instead of a solid starter with a lot of miss potential). There's no way I would trade down if I landed one of those picks. 

NOTE - For some irony, remember all the debates about the value of the NO/ATL pick and how the Mavs needed it? As this is playing out, the Mavs pick is almost certain to be a better one, and as NO keeps winning whatever is winnable, that NO/ATL pick has a strong shot to only be pick 9 or so! ATL perhaps made a better choice getting Kuminga, but the gushing over getting that pick has really died down. (It may turn out that Queen will be more valuable than the pick after all. Who knew.)

[Knutsen]

GS was not on the list of teams that UT was thought to be at "risk" of beating, but the Warriors laid an egg.  Yay!!!

At this point, 0-18 is now a LOCK to land the Mavs at no worse than 6 (because NO still plays both DAL and UT), and has a VERY great chance to land the Mavs at 5.

Every game for the Mavs from here to the end is against a team higher in the standings, so the Mavs should be the underdog in them all. And the Mavs haven't won a single game as the underdog since Jan 22. 

I remain hopeful. Winning even a game or two opens the door to a lot of potential slippage. 

Seed 5, as a reminder, is most likely to end up as pick 7 (not 5), but it also has a 42% chance of landing somewhere in the top 4. While 1-4 is not where the top PGs are slotted, I think it's way better to get one of those top 4, as imo that's a FAR better likelihood of getting a star player (instead of a solid starter with a lot of miss potential). There's no way I would trade down if I landed one of those picks. 

NOTE - For some irony, remember all the debates about the value of the NO/ATL pick and how the Mavs needed it? As this is playing out, the Mavs pick is almost certain to be a better one, and as NO keeps winning whatever is winnable, that NO/ATL pick has a strong shot to only be pick 9 or so! ATL perhaps made a better choice getting Kuminga, but the gushing over getting that pick has really died down. (It may turn out that Queen will be more valuable than the pick after all. Who knew.)

I‘m kind of sad that we don’t have Nellie anymore - would be the perfect time for some mad scientist experiment like playing Gafford at point guard for example

Maybe we should give Flagg the point guard role back and challenge him to average 10 assists from here on out, so that it at least has a true development wrinkle losing all these games, I don’t know.

[F Gump]

Maybe we should give Flagg the point guard role back and .....

Isn't that, or something like it, what they are already doing?

Their starters these days ---
Gaff
PJW
Middleton
Christie
Flagg

There's not a player we would think of as a PG in that lineup. CF is perhaps the primary ball handler, but it goes under the radar now because (a) Mavs world isn't trying to micro-manage what CF should be allowed to do, and (b) CF, after a season of learning on the job, is world's better at it than he was in Oct.