Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Mavs2021]

"Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP"

Count me out on that. IMO wayyyyyyyyy too much talent outgoing from DAL - it feels like the Mavs are bribing a team to take their best talent AD (which is bad roster-building in and of itself) by sending out even more talent, and then they add in a pick (!) (a major no-no to trade away picks when Mavs are rebuilding). 

The goal is to GET talent, not give it all away. 

This is a borderline Nico assessment. Presti would jerk off to his offer, if he was the Mavs GM.

[MaxiThreeba]

I still think the NOP pick lands around 5-6 when it’s all said and done. We have half a season to play out and IND, WAS, BKN, and UTAH will all finish below the Pelicans imo. The Kings are the only wildcard.

The Mavs, depending on what moves they make at the TDL, could finish as high as 7th. A pick swap would give the Mavs two chances at moving up in the lottery drawing or it could just be a move up 1 or 2 spots in the end. I don’t see the Hawks giving that pick outright in any scenario… But I can see a Swap being on the table, maybe it’s protected top 1-2, but I agree with KL and others that Risacher has to be in the deal. I don’t see anyone but maybe FGump being mad with a ZR+NOP FRP Swap return for AD at this point.

Give me the Cavs pick and the #NOPSwap in a KP-Kennard-Risacher deal and I’m good.  I’d take a 2027 pick instead of Cavs but like the idea of maybe being in a position to trade that Cavs pick on draft night if a team is in love with a player (like NOP with Queen).  

Be fine with looping the Hawks into one of the future swaps too (OKC/SAS) where Mavs get worst of all three if that pushed it through.

[mvossman]

"Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP"

Count me out on that. IMO wayyyyyyyyy too much talent outgoing from DAL - it feels like the Mavs are bribing a team to take their best talent AD (which is bad roster-building in and of itself) by sending out even more talent, and then they add in a pick (!) (a major no-no to trade away picks when Mavs are rebuilding). 

The goal is to GET talent, not give it all away. 

That would be a GREAT trade for ATL, of course - they only have to give up a center who isn't really working for them, Risacher (a busted big-salary recent draft pick), and the NO pick (which has no guarantees) for a proven star and two proven starter-level players. But very sucky for Mavs talent level and their future. 

Beyond all that, it leaves ATL over the tax line (a deal killer) with an empty roster slot to fill (pushing them even farther over the tax line), and it makes Mavs waive players to do the deal (the deal needs to be even-numbered since both teams have full rosters). 

Take out Naji (not sure how he even fits their lineup needs) and put in Hardy instead (which leaves ATL under the tax line), and take out the DAL pick, and while I think it's still a bit light for DAL, imo it is getting much closer. That would make it:

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Hardy
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

A note about the NO pick. To me with 3 top prospects available (after which there is a pretty big drop off imo), right now that pick has about a 50-50 chance to be a difference-maker of a pick. ATL will have a hard time letting go of 50-50 odds, of course.

I call it 50-50 now, because I don't think the touted names in slots 4-8 or even lower are necessarily going to be all that great, having watched a few of them and coming away VERY underwhelmed. VERY. 

And those odds of great success can get worse if NO finally starts winning at some point. I thought we would see that already. Sad to say, nope not yet, and we are about 1/2-way through the season. Only about 3 weeks to TDL.

One way forward would be to get the pick but give ATL top-3 protection rather than try to get them to let go - but then DAL loses the enticing aspect of the pick, with the BEST they can get being a much iffier prospect who imo has a decent chance to be a Risacher (big salary, not so exciting prospect after all) so not nearly the value. That's hard to navigate such conflicting values. My hope is that NO starts winning over the next 3 weeks, where the pick loses a lot of its appeal to NO.

Which reminds me - the BEST outcome for DAL is to tank their season away from here, and get a top 5 slot on their own to enter in the lottery. If they can get one of those top 3 guys it would change their trajectory tremendously. It would help to have the NO pick, but that's not the only way to do it.

There have been a lot of very knowledgeable basketball folks (including Stein) who have weighed in on AD current value and you are not in the ballpark of any of them.  I don't know if its because you don't want to move AD unless you are blown over by an offer or if you think everybody else is wrong.  If its the former, these posts would seem more reasonable if you just preface with that.

[mvossman]

Give me the Cavs pick and the #NOPSwap in a KP-Kennard-Risacher deal and I’m good.  I’d take a 2027 pick instead of Cavs but like the idea of maybe being in a position to trade that Cavs pick on draft night if a team is in love with a player (like NOP with Queen).  

Be fine with looping the Hawks into one of the future swaps too (OKC/SAS) where Mavs get worst of all three if that pushed it through.

Lol.  Not long ago folks were talking about salary dumping AD, and now folks are talking about getting back Risacher + NOP swap + another first.  Much like Lively, ADs value is going have a wide range of valuations because of the injury concerns (as well as age in his case).  Most likely the seller is going to be in the higher range and the buyer in the lower, which makes me think its unlikely anything is going to get done.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Lol.  Not long ago folks were talking about salary dumping AD, and now folks are talking about getting back Risacher + NOP swap + another first.  

Some of the Mavs fans are living in some alternate reality or they must not follow the NBA at all outside of this forum.  Like every single analyst or talking head is saying AD has no value.  Even the guys that cover the Mavs and are Mavs homers like Stein, DLLS Mavs, Locked on Mavs, etc.  Look at Trae Young or Ja Morant or Zion Williamson.  AD is in the same boat.  Mavs will be lucky to get a 1st. 

On here, it's we need the NOLA pick and this and that.  I'm such a strong negotiator I'm not settling for a crap return.  If I was the GM, things would be different.   Same person that was leading the delusion bus over the summer about the Mavs being contenders.

[Mavs2021]

Some of the Mavs fans are living in some alternate reality or they must not follow the NBA at all outside of this forum.  Like every single analyst or talking head is saying AD has no value.  Even the guys that cover the Mavs and are Mavs homers like Stein, DLLS Mavs, Locked on Mavs, etc.  Look at Trae Young or Ja Morant or Zion Williamson.  AD is in the same boat.  Mavs will be lucky to get a 1st. 

On here, it's we need the NOLA pick and this and that.  I'm such a strong negotiator I'm not settling for a crap return.  If I was the GM, things would be different.   Same person that was leading the delusion bus over the summer about the Mavs being contenders.

They could still finish 34-6 to win 50 games.

[Smitty]

Some of the Mavs fans are living in some alternate reality or they must not follow the NBA at all outside of this forum.  Like every single analyst or talking head is saying AD has no value.  Even the guys that cover the Mavs and are Mavs homers like Stein, DLLS Mavs, Locked on Mavs, etc.  Look at Trae Young or Ja Morant or Zion Williamson.  AD is in the same boat.  Mavs will be lucky to get a 1st. 

On here, it's we need the NOLA pick and this and that.  I'm such a strong negotiator I'm not settling for a crap return.  If I was the GM, things would be different.   Same person that was leading the delusion bus over the summer about the Mavs being contenders.

I think only one “on here” is still holding out for the NO pick. You say the Mavs will be lucky to get a first. I think that’s just as extreme. None of the reporting has suggested the Mavs are looking to trade Davis in a salary dump, like Trea Young, it’s actually been quite the opposite. Of course, everything we hear this time of the year shouldn’t be taken at face value, but I would be shocked if AD is traded in a salary dump move.

[BigDirk41]

I’ve also advocated for the fact that I think AD is worth the NOP pick by himself, but rumors as well as many opinions on here is that he is not. It can’t be both.

So you wouldn’t do this as the Mavs?

This draft looks stacked in the top 6. I’d rather have a guaranteed shot at one of those guys on coops timeline, than multiple stabs at guys in the late 20s in future drafts.

No I wouldn't do the trade if we include any draft capital. Atlanta doesn't have any leverage in the situation. They can't do anything with their expiring contracts once the deadline passes. Nobody actually wants to go to Atlanta, but AD does so he can get paid. We can't afford to give up a future number 1 for any player. I do not believe the Mavs will entertain any trades where we send out draft picks.

[BigDirk41]

The Mavs will just keep AD if he has no value like some are claiming. You don't give away elite talent just because. Bring him back next year, hope he can stay healthy and rebuild his value, but don't give him away now. They can give him away anytime. What's the rush. Get value or keep him.

[Smitty]

Latest news regarding the Warriors and MPJ, per @GrantAfseth:

- There is growing belief that a clean path to a MPJ deal could involve a multi-team construction
- Warriors have legitimate interest in Michael Porter Jr, despite other reports.
- Multiple executives indicate “something is brewing”

[DanSchwartzgan]

Latest news regarding the Warriors and MPJ, per @GrantAfseth:

- There is growing belief that a clean path to a MPJ deal could involve a multi-team construction
-  Warriors have legitimate interest in Michael Porter Jr, despite other reports.
- Multiple executives indicate “something is brewing”

There is a pretty cool version of this where Dallas ends up with Kuminga and Claxton (and maybe one of the Brooklyn PG's).  GSW gets Porter and can take back one more player from Dallas.  Brooklyn gets AD, Hield and Moody.  I suspect the pick equity from GSW would flow to Brooklyn

[Smitty]

There is a pretty cool version of this where Dallas ends up with Kuminga and Claxton (and maybe one of the Brooklyn PG's).  GSW gets Porter and can take back one more player from Dallas.  Brooklyn gets AD, Hield and Moody.  I suspect the pick equity from GSW would flow to Brooklyn

I don’t know if I like it or hate it. I’m guessing a Gafford trade would have to follow. I’m just not a big fan of Kuminga so I see it as AD for Claxton?

[soog]

"Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP"

Count me out on that. IMO wayyyyyyyyy too much talent outgoing from DAL - it feels like the Mavs are bribing a team to take their best talent AD (which is bad roster-building in and of itself) by sending out even more talent, and then they add in a pick (!) (a major no-no to trade away picks when Mavs are rebuilding). 

The goal is to GET talent, not give it all away. 

That would be a GREAT trade for ATL, of course - they only have to give up a center who isn't really working for them, Risacher (a busted big-salary recent draft pick), and the NO pick (which has no guarantees) for a proven star and two proven starter-level players. But very sucky for Mavs talent level and their future. 

Beyond all that, it leaves ATL over the tax line (a deal killer) with an empty roster slot to fill (pushing them even farther over the tax line), and it makes Mavs waive players to do the deal (the deal needs to be even-numbered since both teams have full rosters). 

Take out Naji (not sure how he even fits their lineup needs) and put in Hardy instead (which leaves ATL under the tax line), and take out the DAL pick, and while I think it's still a bit light for DAL, imo it is getting much closer. That would make it:

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Hardy
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

A note about the NO pick. To me with 3 top prospects available (after which there is a pretty big drop off imo), right now that pick has about a 50-50 chance to be a difference-maker of a pick. ATL will have a hard time letting go of 50-50 odds, of course.

I call it 50-50 now, because I don't think the touted names in slots 4-8 or even lower are necessarily going to be all that great, having watched a few of them and coming away VERY underwhelmed. VERY. 

And those odds of great success can get worse if NO finally starts winning at some point. I thought we would see that already. Sad to say, nope not yet, and we are about 1/2-way through the season. Only about 3 weeks to TDL.

One way forward would be to get the pick but give ATL top-3 protection rather than try to get them to let go - but then DAL loses the enticing aspect of the pick, with the BEST they can get being a much iffier prospect who imo has a decent chance to be a Risacher (big salary, not so exciting prospect after all) so not nearly the value. That's hard to navigate such conflicting values. My hope is that NO starts winning over the next 3 weeks, where the pick loses a lot of its appeal to NO.

Which reminds me - the BEST outcome for DAL is to tank their season away from here, and get a top 5 slot on their own to enter in the lottery. If they can get one of those top 3 guys it would change their trajectory tremendously. It would help to have the NO pick, but that's not the only way to do it.

There have been a lot of very knowledgeable basketball folks (including Stein) who have weighed in on AD current value and you are not in the ballpark of any of them.  I don't know if its because you don't want to move AD unless you are blown over by an offer or if you think everybody else is wrong.  If its the former, these posts would seem more reasonable if you just preface with that.

No I wouldn't do the trade if we include any draft capital. Atlanta doesn't have any leverage in the situation. They can't do anything with their expiring contracts once the deadline passes. Nobody actually wants to go to Atlanta, but AD does so he can get paid. We can't afford to give up a future number 1 for any player. I do not believe the Mavs will entertain any trades where we send out draft picks.

The giant chasm between the sides on this is interesting to me. Some say Dallas is giving up to much, some say it’s not nearly enough. Tells me the value is somewhere in the middle.

[Mavs2021]

There is a pretty cool version of this where Dallas ends up with Kuminga and Claxton (and maybe one of the Brooklyn PG's).  GSW gets Porter and can take back one more player from Dallas.  Brooklyn gets AD, Hield and Moody.  I suspect the pick equity from GSW would flow to Brooklyn

A MPJ is not that much different than a AD trade. Kuminga and Moody need to be the in deal. Then it´s one of Hield or Horford. You can´t give up Horford, so it has to be Hield. At that point you need more perimeter help, so throw in Cam Thomas and Gui Santos to give yourself a real chance as GS and unlock three unprotected 1st round picks for Brooklyn.

MPJ + Cam Thomas for Kuminga + Moody + Hield + Santos + three first round picks.

It´s actually a pretty simple trade by process of elimination. It only depends on the Warriors willingness to give up all the picks.

[DanSchwartzgan]

A MPJ is not that much different than a AD trade. Kuminga and Moody need to be the in deal. Then it´s one of Hield or Horford. You can´t give up Horford, so it has to be Hield. At that point you need more perimeter help, so throw in Cam Thomas and Gui Santos to give yourself a real chance as GS and unlock three unprotected 1st round picks for Brooklyn.

MPJ + Cam Thomas for Kuminga + Moody + Hield + Santos + three first round picks.

It´s actually a pretty simple trade by process of elimination. It only depends on the Warriors willingness to give up all the picks.

I don't believe this leaves enough room for GSW to get back to 14 players.

[vfromlmf]

There are a bunch of iterations of deal based on

GSW <— MPJ

MIL <— AD

BKN <— Kuzma +

DAL <— Kuminga

It would involve a bunch of filler and picks to even things out but the pieces are there. Dallas could end up reasonable contracts + Kuminga + FRP from MIL or GSW.

[F Gump]

There have been a lot of very knowledgeable basketball folks (including Stein) who have weighed in on AD current value and you are not in the ballpark of any of them.  I don't know if its because you don't want to move AD unless you are blown over by an offer or if you think everybody else is wrong.  If its the former, these posts would seem more reasonable if you just preface with that.

It doesn't really bother me to be in the minority. I think you will see me turning out to be way more on target, in the end.

Part of the disconnect is because so many come at it from what I think is the wrong perspective. They are trying to define what they think other teams can, or will, offer the Mavs for AD these days. But his "value" can only be defined by an actual trade (what a buyer will pay, and the seller will sell for) and theorizing what teams might prefer to offer is really short of answering the question of what a trade would look like if it happens, because it completely ignores the question of what it would take for the Mavs to say yes.

I don't think an AD trade is seen by the Mavs as imperative. I think "no trade" is very feasible, unless some team brings a STRONG offer to the table.

The Stein stuff, that was a bizarre take from him imo. I was stunned, because he's usually the voice of reason. In essence, he was saying "the Mavs are screwed because AD got hurt and now they will be forced to take a really crappy low offer" and I think that was utter nonsense. Or carrying someone's water for an agenda (trying to entice bidders to try to come take advantage and thus restart the "bidding"?). C'mon Marc. The Mavs are not being FORCED to swap AD for almost no value at all, as he moans, because they can always just keep him (and I think they truly have no issue with doing that). 

I have said from the get-go that my pov is that X (more or less) is what I think an AD deal (his apparent "value") will look like if a deal happens - and have also said that I don't think a deal (from Mavs pov) is going to be a "must do." If there is a deal, and it's for crap, then yes I will have been wrong. But imo his value to the Mavs is much higher than that, and they will either have someone pay that value, or they will keep him and use him for their own roster. The fact that other teams might want to offer less is irrelevant as to defining his value, unless the Mavs agree to sell him at that price. 

Another overlooked factor is that no deal will happen now. With him mending, bidders will not get serious until the last days before the TDL. What we are hearing now is noise.

It is in THAT context - what I think it would take for the Mavs to be interested and perhaps say yes - that I have been addressing the question of what is needed for an AD trade. The Mavs imo are expecting a certain amount of TALENT in return, to let go of AD, which can come via pick(s) or very good players, and I think most of the offers here fall well short of that. You (and others) don't like my pov, but let's see if he gets sold for a lot less. I don't think it will happen.

[Smitty]

It doesn't really bother me to be in the minority. I think you will see me turning out to be way more on target, in the end.

Part of the disconnect is because so many come at it from what I think is the wrong perspective. They are trying to define what they think other teams can, or will, offer the Mavs for AD these days. But his "value" can only be defined by an actual trade (what a buyer will pay, and the seller will sell for) and theorizing what teams might prefer to offer is really short of answering the question of what a trade would look like if it happens, because it completely ignores the question of what it would take for the Mavs to say yes.

I don't think an AD trade is seen by the Mavs as imperative. I think "no trade" is very feasible, unless some team brings a STRONG offer to the table.

The Stein stuff, that was a bizarre take from him imo. I was stunned, because he's usually the voice of reason. In essence, he was saying "the Mavs are screwed because AD got hurt and now they will be forced to take a really crappy low offer" and I think that was utter nonsense. Or carrying someone's water for an agenda (trying to entice bidders to try to come take advantage and thus restart the "bidding"?). C'mon Marc. The Mavs are not being FORCED to swap AD for almost no value at all, as he moans, because they can always just keep him (and I think they truly have no issue with doing that). 

I have said from the get-go that my pov is that X (more or less) is what I think an AD deal (his apparent "value") will look like if a deal happens - and have also said that I don't think a deal (from Mavs pov) is going to be a "must do." If there is a deal, and it's for crap, then yes I will have been wrong. But imo his value to the Mavs is much higher than that, and they will either have someone pay that value, or they will keep him and use him for their own roster. The fact that other teams might want to offer less is irrelevant as to defining his value, unless the Mavs agree to sell him at that price. 

Another overlooked factor is that no deal will happen now. With him mending, bidders will not get serious until the last days before the TDL. What we are hearing now is noise.

It is in THAT context - what I think it would take for the Mavs to be interested and perhaps say yes - that I have been addressing the question of what is needed for an AD trade. The Mavs imo are expecting a certain amount of TALENT in return, to let go of AD, which can come via pick(s) or very good players, and I think most of the offers here fall well short of that. You (and others) don't like my pov, but let's see if he gets sold for a lot less. I don't think it will happen.

A lot of things in here that I agree with. It’s why I continue to appreciate your insistence on pushing back against the rest of us. It’s also why I said RTG was just as extreme with his opinion as he thinks you are with yours. None of us know for sure what will happen, if anything, but one thing is certain… the eventual Davis trade will give all of us some closure and we can start discussing the Mavs on-court product again!

[ThisIStheYear]

The giant chasm between the sides on this is interesting to me. Some say Dallas is giving up to much, some say it’s not nearly enough. Tells me the value is somewhere in the middle.

It just tells you that some people on this board don’t understand how NBA GM’s value players and picks.  No GM is giving up a legit shot to get into the top 3 of this generational draft for the honor of paying a  broken down AD $60 million and his agent stirring shit if he doesn’t get an extension that pays him $70 millionuntil he’s practically retired.

[mvossman]

It doesn't really bother me to be in the minority. I think you will see me turning out to be way more on target, in the end.

Part of the disconnect is because so many come at it from what I think is the wrong perspective. They are trying to define what they think other teams can, or will, offer the Mavs for AD these days. But his "value" can only be defined by an actual trade (what a buyer will pay, and the seller will sell for) and theorizing what teams might prefer to offer is really short of answering the question of what a trade would look like if it happens, because it completely ignores the question of what it would take for the Mavs to say yes.

I don't think an AD trade is seen by the Mavs as imperative. I think "no trade" is very feasible, unless some team brings a STRONG offer to the table.

The Stein stuff, that was a bizarre take from him imo. I was stunned, because he's usually the voice of reason. In essence, he was saying "the Mavs are screwed because AD got hurt and now they will be forced to take a really crappy low offer" and I think that was utter nonsense. Or carrying someone's water for an agenda (trying to entice bidders to try to come take advantage and thus restart the "bidding"?). C'mon Marc. The Mavs are not being FORCED to swap AD for almost no value at all, as he moans, because they can always just keep him (and I think they truly have no issue with doing that). 

I have said from the get-go that my pov is that X (more or less) is what I think an AD deal (his apparent "value") will look like if a deal happens - and have also said that I don't think a deal (from Mavs pov) is going to be a "must do." If there is a deal, and it's for crap, then yes I will have been wrong. But imo his value to the Mavs is much higher than that, and they will either have someone pay that value, or they will keep him and use him for their own roster. The fact that other teams might want to offer less is irrelevant as to defining his value, unless the Mavs agree to sell him at that price. 

Another overlooked factor is that no deal will happen now. With him mending, bidders will not get serious until the last days before the TDL. What we are hearing now is noise.

It is in THAT context - what I think it would take for the Mavs to be interested and perhaps say yes - that I have been addressing the question of what is needed for an AD trade. The Mavs imo are expecting a certain amount of TALENT in return, to let go of AD, which can come via pick(s) or very good players, and I think most of the offers here fall well short of that. You (and others) don't like my pov, but let's see if he gets sold for a lot less. I don't think it will happen.

I don't think folks are talking about what they think is offered.  Most folks are simply saying if the deal turns out to be [insert deal], I will be ok with it.  They are not projecting what the offers are or what they think Mavs will do, simply what they would be ok with.  This obviously includes a value assessment of AD market and includes a projection of his future market (if you think its going to be a lot higher in the future, then you are going to want more for him now).

Maybe you are just predicting what Mavs will accept in a trade, but your post that I replied to started with "Count me out on that".  That sounds like the same kind of value judgement everyone else is doing.  

I'm not sure what you think will justify you being on target.  If you think its Mavs getting a package in the ballpark of the NOP pick, I think you are going to be sorely disappointed.  I don't think that will ever happen.  If you think its the Mavs not moving him at all (which I think is the most likely outcome) then it really doesn't justify anything.  We won't really know until he actually gets dealt.

I think you are misrepresenting Stein.  He never said they must dump his salary.  He has always said he thought they were better off waiting until offseason, and when it was reported that he would be out for the rest of the season, Stein didn't think they could get any value out of him then either.  I do think he is concerned about the cap situation.  He seems to think (like most other folks out there) that the Mavs need (and plan to) get out of the tax.  That will be easier to do at the TDL than in the offseason.