Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Smitty]

If Dallas wants Expirings + Young player + FRP it's easy to see ATL offering the rumored deal and Dallas countering with the deal we'd all like.

ATL offer: KP + Kennard + Newell + '29 FRP (Atl)

DAL counter: KP + Kennard + Risacher + '26 FRP (NO)

What jumped out at me from that article was it said Atlanta has been resistant to including Risacher AND the New Orleans pick. It could be just clumsy sportsblogger writing, but using AND instead of OR really changes the meaning.

If Atlanta is offering one but not both, which alternative do you prefer?

Expirings + Risacher + '29 (Atl)

Expirings + Newell + '26 (NO)

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Of course, things get complicated if Atlanta adds protections e.g. Expirings + Newell + Top-4 Protected '26 (NO) that if not conveyed reverts to unprotected '29 (Atl)

They won’t do Expirings+ anyone other than ZR or OO unless you think they’ll go into the tax this season. I explained this in depth yesterday.

If they’re willing to pay the tax then I prefer the AD+Gafford+Naji for Expirings+ZR+OO+FRP framework much better.

[vfromlmf]

They did use OR. Atlanta isn't willing to give up either.

Per @MikeAScotto:

• The Hawks have remained reluctant to include the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick or former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher in trade talks for Anthony Davis.
• Atlanta could still explore moving the expiring contracts of Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard, but the team is under no urgency to accelerate negotiations while Davis is dealing with another injury.

The original article used AND 

Regardless, it's most likely just sloppy writing.

[KillerLeft]

This notion that ATL won't include Risacher is ridiculous.

As numerous people have pointed out, there IS no way to do the trade without either Risacher or OO, and ATL's motivation is to add size, not give up the one consistent big they have. I don't think they're sending KP and OO out for a guy who might not play any more than KP would've.

So, either you believe they (ATL) are simply not interested, and never were, or you believe Risacher would be part of the deal. I just don't think it makes sense any other way, and I do believe they were interested before the hand injury. There is still smoke out there about their interest now, with the hand injury, but who knows if that's true. However, imagining they think they can make the deal without Risacher (or would even want to, given the tax implications, especially because they'd have to make some signings after a 3-for-1) is silly to me.

IF a deal goes down with ATL, it's going to include Risacher. I think that's clear, personally.

[mvossman]

This notion that ATL won't include Risacher is ridiculous.

As numerous people have pointed out, there IS no way to do the trade without either Risacher or OO, and ATL's motivation is to add size, not give up the one consistent big they have. I don't think they're sending KP and OO out for a guy who might not play any more than KP would've.

So, either you believe they (ATL) are simply not interested, and never were, or you believe Risacher would be part of the deal. I just don't think it makes sense any other way, and I do believe they were interested before the hand injury. There is still smoke out there about their interest now, with the hand injury, but who knows if that's true. However, imagining they think they can make the deal without Risacher (or would even want to, given the tax implications, especially because they'd have to make some signings after a 3-for-1) is silly to me.

IF a deal goes down with ATL, it's going to include Risacher. I think that's clear, personally.

Agreed.  And I would prefer that deal with no picks to the Toronto deal with a first (and maybe even two firsts).

[Smitty]

This notion that ATL won't include Risacher is ridiculous.

As numerous people have pointed out, there IS no way to do the trade without either Risacher or OO, and ATL's motivation is to add size, not give up the one consistent big they have. I don't think they're sending KP and OO out for a guy who might not play any more than KP would've.

So, either you believe they (ATL) are simply not interested, and never were, or you believe Risacher would be part of the deal. I just don't think it makes sense any other way, and I do believe they were interested before the hand injury. There is still smoke out there about their interest now, with the hand injury, but who knows if that's true. However, imagining they think they can make the deal without Risacher (or would even want to, given the tax implications, especially because they'd have to make some signings after a 3-for-1) is silly to me.

IF a deal goes down with ATL, it's going to include Risacher. I think that's clear, personally.

It wouldn’t be a 3-1 but you’re right that if it’s a simple Hawks-Mavs trade for Davis, with no 3rd team, or no CJ/Kispert non-aggregated deal then Risacher is the obvious inclusion.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
On Toronto:
Maybe the trade machine is broken, but it says neither Barrett + Quickley (Mavs side) nor Barrett + Poeltl (Raptors side) are even legal.

Anyway Barrett is perfectly fine, but Quickley and Poeltl are just disgusting.  

This was what I was talking about last night.  You can design cap-legal trades, but apron-legal trades are a completely different matter with these Toronto guards.  Quickly and Barrett both have high ULI bonuses.  They are absolutely a killer when dealing with teams that are close to being hard capped.

I think FG is right about the "Toronto is gauging interest" quote.  It is interest in trying to find a three way that works for Dallas.  It is interesting that at least one betting site has Toronto as the favorite now for an AD trade with Atlanta now 3rd (I haven't even engaged #2 Milwaukee for a second though).  

There is kind of a rhyme to all these guys who are "scorers" who seem to be available.  They can't shoot...especially from three.  Barrett and Mathurin and Kuminga are all afflicted.  Quickly is horrible from the corner.  I could allow for one of these guys to start the Flagg era.  We definitely need some more self-creation ability.  Yes, we want people who fit next to Flagg (I believe that is actually a moving target as what he is today isn't what he will be a couple of years from now).  As they say, this may need to be the trade that leads to THE trade.  Maybe we need value over fit for now.

[soog]

I have to think there is a package that include AD + Gaff + Naji and a future FRP from Dallas that loosens up their grip on the NOP pick. Makes ATL bigger and increases playmaking and is technically not giving up draft capital, just a delayed swap.

I keep being a proponent of using this trade to roll picks forward rather than try to add them outright. For the Mavs it moves AD, reduces cap, and gives them 2 high draft picks to hit reset immediately.

There are a few ways to make it work financially, but it would have to include both Risacher and OO.

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

[BigDirk41]

I have to think there is a package that include AD + Gaff + Naji and a future FRP from Dallas that loosens up their grip on the NOP pick. Makes ATL bigger and increases playmaking and is technically not giving up draft capital, just a delayed swap.

I keep being a proponent of using this trade to roll picks forward rather than try to add them outright. For the Mavs it moves AD, reduces cap, and gives them 2 high draft picks to hit reset immediately.

There are a few ways to make it work financially, but it would have to include both Risacher and OO.

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

I like the idea and creativity, but that seems like way too much for Dallas to send out. Maybe without the future first attached, but AD, Gafford and Naji are all rotational pieces. AD is one of the best 2 way players in the league. I know his injuries hurt his value, but that's a lot of talent to send out.

[vfromlmf]

This was what I was talking about last night.  You can design cap-legal trades, but apron-legal trades are a completely different matter with these Toronto guards.  Quickly and Barrett both have high ULI bonuses.  They are absolutely a killer when dealing with teams that are close to being hard capped.

I think FG is right about the "Toronto is gauging interest" quote.  It is interest in trying to find a three way that works for Dallas.  It is interesting that at least one betting site has Toronto as the favorite now for an AD trade with Atlanta now 3rd (I haven't even engaged #2 Milwaukee for a second though).  

There is kind of a rhyme to all these guys who are "scorers" who seem to be available.  They can't shoot...especially from three.  Barrett and Mathurin and Kuminga are all afflicted.  Quickly is horrible from the corner.  I could allow for one of these guys to start the Flagg era.  We definitely need some more self-creation ability.  Yes, we want people who fit next to Flagg (I believe that is actually a moving target as what he is today isn't what he will be a couple of years from now).  As they say, this may need to be the trade that leads to THE trade.  Maybe we need value over fit for now.

The Wolves want a PG so you could send Quickley there

MIN out: Conley + DiVincenzo + Dillingham + Berenger 
MIN in: Quickley + pick

TOR out: Barrett + Quickley + 2 picks
TOR in: AD + DiVincenzo

DAL out: AD
DAL in: Conley + Barrett + Dillingham + Berenger + pick

Quickley ($32.5M) is an upgrade on the court over DiVincenzo ($12M) but that's terrible deal for MIN financially. Plus they'd be giving up on two very young recent draftees. They'd certainly expect draft compensation.

Conley is expiring. Dillingham (21) was the 8th pick. Berenger (19) was the 17th pick. You'd get at least one FRP from TOR. Dallas would need to move others to open roster spots or waive Exum, DLo, and Powell.  

Not a huge fan of this deal but I've seen worse ideas.

[Dirknows]

KP+Kennard+Newell+FRP is better than taking on all that Toronto money. I'd push for the CLE or the 2027 swap with NOP/MIL over the ATL 2029.

[DallasMaverick]

Tom Haberstroh: "Here's a stat for you is that in the NBA, we have these 3D camera tracking... what we can see is that Luka Doncic is the 2nd least mobile player in the NBA on defense. 2nd least. The only other guy who covers less ground per minute on the floor defensively is James Harden.“

[mvossman]

Tom Haberstroh: "Here's a stat for you is that in the NBA, we have these 3D camera tracking... what we can see is that Luka Doncic is the 2nd least mobile player in the NBA on defense. 2nd least. The only other guy who covers less ground per minute on the floor defensively is James Harden.“

What is the point of this?  Get over it.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Tom Haberstroh: "Here's a stat for you is that in the NBA, we have these 3D camera tracking... what we can see is that Luka Doncic is the 2nd least mobile player in the NBA on defense. 2nd least. The only other guy who covers less ground per minute on the floor defensively is James Harden.“

Stop your Luka hate. It's embarassing.

[soog]

I like the idea and creativity, but that seems like way too much for Dallas to send out. Maybe without the future first attached, but AD, Gafford and Naji are all rotational pieces. AD is one of the best 2 way players in the league. I know his injuries hurt his value, but that's a lot of talent to send out.

I’ve also advocated for the fact that I think AD is worth the NOP pick by himself, but rumors as well as many opinions on here is that he is not. It can’t be both.

So you wouldn’t do this as the Mavs?

This draft looks stacked in the top 6. I’d rather have a guaranteed shot at one of those guys on coops timeline, than multiple stabs at guys in the late 20s in future drafts.

[Mavs2021]

I’ve also advocated for the fact that I think AD is worth the NOP pick by himself, but rumors as well as many opinions on here is that he is not. It can’t be both.

So you wouldn’t do this as the Mavs?

This draft looks stacked in the top 6. I’d rather have a guaranteed shot at one of those guys on coops timeline, than multiple stabs at guys in the late 20s in future drafts.

If Riccardi/Finley get that NO pick for AD, I´d give them both ten year contracts. Do you see the stunts teams are pulling in January to get into the top 3 odds? New Orleans is in last place despite an incentive to win, which only makes it worse. I would not give that up in any draft for AD, let alone one projected to be generational. Everybody here would like to have the Pelicans pick.

[DallasMaverick]

Stop your Luka hate. It's embarassing.

I love Nico.

[Smitty]

On Toronto:
Maybe the trade machine is broken, but it says neither Barrett + Quickley (Mavs side) nor Barrett + Poeltl (Raptors side) are even legal. 

Legal trades with Quickley:
RJ+IQ for AD, Hardy, DLO
RJ+IQ+Agbaji for AD, Martin, DLO, BWill

Legal trades with Poeltl:
RJ+Poeltl+Agbaji for AD, BWill (waive Exum)
RJ+Poeltl+Agbaji+Temple for AD, BWill, Powell (waive Exum)

[ThisIStheYear]

I have to think there is a package that include AD + Gaff + Naji and a future FRP from Dallas that loosens up their grip on the NOP pick. Makes ATL bigger and increases playmaking and is technically not giving up draft capital, just a delayed swap.

I keep being a proponent of using this trade to roll picks forward rather than try to add them outright. For the Mavs it moves AD, reduces cap, and gives them 2 high draft picks to hit reset immediately.

There are a few ways to make it work financially, but it would have to include both Risacher and OO.

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

That would be a spectacular trade for the Mavs. The Mavs could just clean house, clean up the salary sheet, and position themselves to get two top 8 players in a generational draft. It’s a pipe dream though. The NOP pick has massive value.  Peterson is one of the best college players I’ve ever seen over many decades, and the best shooting guard prospect since MJ. No one is giving up a pick with a great chance to win this year’s lottery, particularly when even if you lose it, you have 3 or 4 all star caliber talents available as a consolation prize. Good thought though.

[Smitty]

If Riccardi/Finley get that NO pick for AD, I´d give them both ten year contracts. Do you see the stunts teams are pulling in January to get into the top 3 odds? New Orleans is in last place despite an incentive to win, which only makes it worse. I would not give that up in any draft for AD, let alone one projected to be generational. Everybody here would like to have the Pelicans pick.

I still think the NOP pick lands around 5-6 when it’s all said and done. We have half a season to play out and IND, WAS, BKN, and UTAH will all finish below the Pelicans imo. The Kings are the only wildcard.

The Mavs, depending on what moves they make at the TDL, could finish as high as 7th. A pick swap would give the Mavs two chances at moving up in the lottery drawing or it could just be a move up 1 or 2 spots in the end. I don’t see the Hawks giving that pick outright in any scenario… But I can see a Swap being on the table, maybe it’s protected top 1-2, but I agree with KL and others that Risacher has to be in the deal. I don’t see anyone but maybe FGump being mad with a ZR+NOP FRP Swap return for AD at this point.

[F Gump]

"Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Naji + future FRP
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP"

Count me out on that. IMO wayyyyyyyyy too much talent outgoing from DAL - it feels like the Mavs are bribing a team to take their best talent AD (which is bad roster-building in and of itself) by sending out even more talent, and then they add in a pick (!) (a major no-no to trade away picks when Mavs are rebuilding). 

The goal is to GET talent, not give it all away. 

That would be a GREAT trade for ATL, of course - they only have to give up a center who isn't really working for them, Risacher (a busted big-salary recent draft pick), and the NO pick (which has no guarantees) for a proven star and two proven starter-level players. But very sucky for Mavs talent level and their future. 

Beyond all that, it leaves ATL over the tax line (a deal killer) with an empty roster slot to fill (pushing them even farther over the tax line), and it makes Mavs waive players to do the deal (the deal needs to be even-numbered since both teams have full rosters). 

Take out Naji (not sure how he even fits their lineup needs) and put in Hardy instead (which leaves ATL under the tax line), and take out the DAL pick, and while I think it's still a bit light for DAL, imo it is getting much closer. That would make it:

Atl receives: AD/Gaff/Hardy
Dal receives KP/Kennard/Risacher/OO + 2026 NOP FRP

A note about the NO pick. To me with 3 top prospects available (after which there is a pretty big drop off imo), right now that pick has about a 50-50 chance to be a difference-maker of a pick. ATL will have a hard time letting go of 50-50 odds, of course.

I call it 50-50 now, because I don't think the touted names in slots 4-8 or even lower are necessarily going to be all that great, having watched a few of them and coming away VERY underwhelmed. VERY. 

And those odds of great success can get worse if NO finally starts winning at some point. I thought we would see that already. Sad to say, nope not yet, and we are about 1/2-way through the season. Only about 3 weeks to TDL.

One way forward would be to get the pick but give ATL top-3 protection rather than try to get them to let go - but then DAL loses the enticing aspect of the pick, with the BEST they can get being a much iffier prospect who imo has a decent chance to be a Risacher (big salary, not so exciting prospect after all) so not nearly the value. That's hard to navigate such conflicting values. My hope is that NO starts winning over the next 3 weeks, where the pick loses a lot of its appeal to NO.

Which reminds me - the BEST outcome for DAL is to tank their season away from here, and get a top 5 slot on their own to enter in the lottery. If they can get one of those top 3 guys it would change their trajectory tremendously. It would help to have the NO pick, but that's not the only way to do it.