AROUND the NBA:

[mvossman]

If the choice is between Nate Ament and Koi Peat, then really??? Are you so good at analysis that you know which will be better? Of course there's a percentage difference, but outside the top 5, I doubt there's a lot of certainty. I don't think any team will consider it a regular season fight to see who places 7th and 8th in the draft. This isn't Boozer or Peterson we're talking about.

It isn't even mid-season yet. Coaches aren't going to massage their lineups in the regular season to conspicuously lose in a fight for 7 or 8 unless maybe it's the last game of the season. Then Maybe. But you won't be entirely sure how teams will pick above you even then.

This is a really strange way to look at it. It is about Boozer or Peterson.  That percentage difference in landing one of them is significant and you want to increase your odds as best as you can.  

I'm not sure Kidd hasn't been massaging his lineups to lose at various points this season already and he better start now regardless.  This might be the last significant asset this team has for the next 10 years, especially after the latest AD injury.  They need to do everything they can to increase its potential value.

[khaled1987]

I would argue that the difference of ending up 6th or 9th is probably not worth complaining about. Consider where we were slotted last year in the lottery... and where we ended up. Also consider that the lottery picks after the first 5 seem like a real crapshoot in this draft. They are all pretty good, but nothing really stands out.

Back in 2009 Knicks gave Stephen Curry a promise at 8, and he avoided teams that were picking earlier.HSW picked him anyway and Knicks picked Jordan Hill, the best players available were Derozen and Holiday who weren't even close. 

Obviously, very specific example, but if you trust the team to make the right selection, those slots matter tbh.

I think we finish 7th, as I see Pelicans, Kings and Jazz lower than us from the West, same as Wizards, Pacers and Nets. 

We need a crazy tanking to beat those, in an unhealthy way.  But we shouldn't be at 10th or 9th IMO

[Winter]

Back in 2009 Knicks gave Stephen Curry a promise at 8, and he avoided teams that were picking earlier.HSW picked him anyway and Knicks picked Jordan Hill, the best players available were Derozen and Holiday who weren't even close. 

Obviously, very specific example, but if you trust the team to make the right selection, those slots matter tbh.

I think we finish 7th, as I see Pelicans, Kings and Jazz lower than us from the West, same as Wizards, Pacers and Nets. 

We need a crazy tanking to beat those, in an unhealthy way.  But we shouldn't be at 10th or 9th IMO

Tanking excitement is going to keep this board thoroughly occupied. It's a weird place to be I think. I can't imagine what the Wizards go though every year. I'm sure they thought Flagg was theirs last year.

[Winter]

This is a really strange way to look at it. It is about Boozer or Peterson.  That percentage difference in landing one of them is significant and you want to increase your odds as best as you can.  

Just out of curiosity, what are you saying to the fans who have season tickets? Come watch us lose. We're going to make sure it happens. I think it's a real problem for ticket buyers.

I agree really of what Kidd did last night. Play newer players. Good idea really. If they lose, no one complains. But I don't think it's a good look just to fail with any intent. I don't want to watch the Mavs trying to be worse than their opponent, especially at mid-season. They're bad enough as is.

Edit: re-reading it's possible we are close to saying the same thing. But I wouldn't be massaging games in the last minute just to make certain I lose. Not now anyway. In my thought process, I'm not focusing on a winning game strategy with my rotations, but that doesn't mean I message the players to intentionally lose games.

[Scott41theMavs]

Just out of curiosity, what are you saying to the fans who have season tickets? Come watch us lose. We're going to make sure it happens. I think it's a real problem for ticket buyers.

I agree really of what Kidd did last night. Play newer players. Good idea really. If they lose, no one complains. But I don't think it's a good look just to fail with any intent. I don't want to watch the Mavs trying to be worse than their opponent, especially at mid-season. They're bad enough as is.

Come watch Coop improve and show promise in spite of a team around him that can't win.

[Winter]

Come watch Coop improve and show promise in spite of a team around him that can't win.

Well I do watch Youtube videos of Flagg after most games. Panda, or someone like that, usually has some selective videos. I try to do that. He's worth watching.

[F Gump]

I'm not focusing on a winning game strategy with my rotations, but that doesn't mean I message the players to intentionally lose games.

"We have players being told to lose" is a common  misperception of  tanking. 

No team, in the history of ever, tells (or would even dream of telling) their PLAYERS to intentionally lose games. Play hard, play the best you can, try to win -- those are always expected. (If a team tells their players to try to lose, that's ILLEGAL and can land both players and cosches and anyone else in on it in jail, banned from the NBA, etc. The gambling implications become huge as well. So players playing to lose is NOT part of the equation.)

How does a team tank? The coaches trot out really bad lineups and rotations, and alter minutes and combos of players. They can also find or manage injuries to completely sideline all their top players. (See Kyrie, AD, Lively, PJW.) I'm not suggesting injuries are faked, but there can be a lot of extra caution, and injury management, and vague answers, and lengthened return times, that conveniently work together to kill a team's record. 

Coaches (not player effort) are the key to tanking. But they aren't going to tank (and sabotage their future) unless upper management wants it to happen. It's a tricky world to live in. 

Fans don't get any say. Nor do players. It can be frustrating to watch as the bad play and losses pile up. Lots to criticize. 

We are likely to see the conjunction of an extra number of minutes given to young 3rd stringers to develop, and for some players to get showcase minutes to get good stats and maintain (or enhance) trade values. Glorified garbage time for big chunks of thr game. Odd substitutions where an effective combo doing well gets subbed for. 

The coaches can also play to the opponent. They can trot out tighter rotations and game approaches against the best teams, knowing that even at their best, the depleted lineup likely won't win. A win every so often is necessary because of player morale -- it's hard to lose game after game. Just manage the game a bit differently when playing against the dregs of the league. 

But in all of that, players are going to be pushed to play hard and coached to make shots and defend well. Always. That's a given. I still expect to see good plays, exciting shots made, positive signs, and more, in the middle of losses.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Coaches and FOs tank. Players don't. Never.

Unless they sold games for bet of course hahahahahaha

[Knutsen]

Just out of curiosity, what are you saying to the fans who have season tickets? Come watch us lose. We're going to make sure it happens. I think it's a real problem for ticket buyers.

I agree really of what Kidd did last night. Play newer players. Good idea really. If they lose, no one complains. But I don't think it's a good look just to fail with any intent. I don't want to watch the Mavs trying to be worse than their opponent, especially at mid-season. They're bad enough as is.

Edit: re-reading it's possible we are close to saying the same thing. But I wouldn't be massaging games in the last minute just to make certain I lose. Not now anyway. In my thought process, I'm not focusing on a winning game strategy with my rotations, but that doesn't mean I message the players to intentionally lose games.

I would tell the fans: 
We messed up thanks to Nico. You are our most valuable asset as a fanbase. This season focuses on player development, because we want to win titles in the near future. So come and support our young players and watch our second most important asset Cooper grow - and be part of something truly special from the beginning. 

By the way true support doesn’t depend on regular season wins. But I‘m spoiled coming from Europe, where the greatest supporters are often from the worst teams, that fight against relegation year after year.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I would tell the fans: 
We messed up thanks to Nico. You are our most valuable asset as a fanbase. This season focuses on player development, because we want to win titles in the near future. So come and support our young players and watch our second most important asset Cooper grow - and be part of something truly special from the beginning. 

By the way true support doesn’t depend on regular season wins. But I‘m spoiled coming from Europe, where the greatest supporters are often from the worst teams, that fight against relegation year after year.

This.

[Chicagojk]

who would have thought after last years awful suns season and a team looked to be giving lottery picks to other teams for years, now have the better record than the team they traded KD to (also better than the Clippers who picked up Beal too).  Coach of the year stuff too.

[ballsrchr]

Tanking excitement is going to keep this board thoroughly occupied. It's a weird place to be I think. I can't imagine what the Wizards go though every year. I'm sure they thought Flagg was theirs last year.

I do feel weird and uncomfortable about wanting the Mavs to lose.  This is something that I've never done.  However I understand the need for it.  In addition we need to trade for "options" and high picks.  We have a small, very good core for the team right now.  We need to build a new team around that core.  Can it be done in one year?  I don't know.  Maybe two years.

For these rebuild years we need a high quality GM--as soon as possible!, a very good (new) coach, and some advisors that understand how to tank and the reasons for it.  So, yeah, I guess we could call them "tank gurus" like someone previously mentioned.  And these people are not associated with the team right now.

If it is done right, I will be excited to watch the rebuild.  If not we'll end up with the Cuban "plan powder" and have a bunch of over the hill veterans (again).  I won't be excited with a new "plan powder".

[Chicagojk]

I do feel weird and uncomfortable about wanting the Mavs to lose.  This is something that I've never done.  However I understand the need for it.  In addition we need to trade for "options" and high picks.  We have a small, very good core for the team right now.  We need to build a new team around that core.  Can it be done in one year?  I don't know.  Maybe two years.

For these rebuild years we need a high quality GM--as soon as possible!, a very good (new) coach, and some advisors that understand how to tank and the reasons for it.  So, yeah, I guess we could call them "tank gurus" like someone previously mentioned.  And these people are not associated with the team right now.

If it is done right, I will be excited to watch the rebuild.  If not we'll end up with the Cuban "plan powder" and have a bunch of over the hill veterans (again).  I won't be excited with a new "plan powder".

It is a tricky spot.   Losses will come but I have trouble rooting for losses.    I mean I watch the games and it is tough to watch them rooting for losses.  I know the season is over but I still want to see meaningful play and development.   I find it hard to root for loses and also playing people I have no interest in seeing their growth on the team.

It is a sucky place to be with teams like Utah, Washington, etc who have spent years rooting for the tank only to see the odds go against you and you drop down in the lottery.   Again, I understand that this pick is a very important asset and I am fine with losing (and even expect it), but I have trouble going into most games hoping for a bad loss.   Maybe if we didn't have Cooper, I would feel different.   Although, I probably wouldn't be watching the games than either.

[ballsrchr]

It is a tricky spot.   Losses will come but I have trouble rooting for losses.    I mean I watch the games and it is tough to watch them rooting for losses.  I know the season is over but I still want to see meaningful play and development.   I find it hard to root for loses and also playing people I have no interest in seeing their growth on the team.

It is a sucky place to be with teams like Utah, Washington, etc who have spent years rooting for the tank only to see the odds go against you and you drop down in the lottery.   Again, I understand that this pick is a very important asset and I am fine with losing (and even expect it), but I have trouble going into most games hoping for a bad loss.   Maybe if we didn't have Cooper, I would feel different.   Although, I probably wouldn't be watching the games than either.

I agree.  I'm not "rooting" for losses.  At the same time I know that losing is the way forward--for now--and that is really weird and uncomfortable.  I feel that each game should be an opportunity to work on basics, learn how to set up plays--and finish them with precision. Explore the qualities of the bench warmers, see how they perform in games under pressure.  I say "bench warmers"...anybody in the NBA is a pretty good basketball player.  But if you can't use them in the games--get somebody you can use.  In truth...going forward...these games should be high quality scrimmages.  To semi-quote someone else:  players should never tank.  They should give it all.  The tanking will be done by coaches and management. I don't think Kidd should be our coach of choice.

I've been watching the Mavs since 1982, through thick and thin.  If it wasn't for Flagg--I might think about taking the season off...

But Flagg is here.

[Mavs2021]

I´ll genuinely believe one of three things will happen in 2028.

Luka signs with Mavs.
Luka signs with Nuggets.
Luka signs with Real Madrid and leaves the NBA all together.

I´d at least sort my cap out in a way that I can react accordingly in 2028.

I think he will find zero joy playing in that LA circus putting ALL the blame on him largely unjustified based on the talent around him offensively and defensively.

[Chicagojk]

I´ll genuinely believe one of three things will happen in 2028.

Luka signs with Mavs.
Luka signs with Nuggets.
Luka signs with Real Madrid and leaves the NBA all together.

I´d at least sort my cap out in a way that I can react accordingly in 2028.

I think he will find zero joy playing in that LA circus putting ALL the blame on him largely unjustified based on the talent around him offensively and defensively.

I would bet they figure it out with this new ownership group.   At times, I think the Lakers have been better than I have thought.   Other times, they have been worse.   This year was never the end game.  If I was a West team though, I would not want to see Luka in a playoff series.  I just can't see them with an extended run in the playoffs at this point.  

What is more interesting to me is what they do this offseason?  From what I understand, they have Reaves on a cap hold where they can go out with a lot of cap room and then sign Reaves after.   Although, I am not sure what the plan is with cap room and not all your future firsts available.   Plus, are your firsts valuable when you are the Lakers?   It is going to be fascinating how you improve by finding a replacement for Lebron?  Do you resign Rui?  Ayton? Smart?  Does cap room and a few first get you anywhere close to the JJJ of Memphis of the worlds?     

I will be really interested to see how they navigate this offseason to get a team closer to contention in the Luka prime.   Never bet against the Lakers, although as if now they have one less noob to bail them out.

[Mavs2021]

I would bet they figure it out with this new ownership group.  

Ah I always forget that they are now owned by the UAE. That´s a good point. Then guess who is the jersey sponsor of Real Madrid. Let´s compromise. Real Madrid join NBA Europe and Luka becomes the poster child of the whole entity.

[Chicagojk]

BTW, I think it is awful Lebron is allowing Rich Paul to talk on a podcast weekly.  Agents are much better playing in the shadows.    It just feels like Paul is getting too big for his shoes.     Nothing good comes out of saying they should trade Reeves.  Even if he is just giving his opinion.  Everyone is going to assume this is coming from Lebron due to their relationship.  May not be wrong either.

[F Gump]

LAL will indeed have a huge amount of cap room (quick rough estimate = about 48M, I think) in the summer, assuming Lebron is done there. So they can make multiple moves for new good players. Should be interesting.

That assumes they don't keep Lebron (or Bronny, of course), don't re-sign Rui or Vincent or Hayes or Kleber. Assumes Ayton opts in, and Smart too.

[omahen]

FGump numbers are correct. Lakers will have significant cap space with all their expirings gone. They will also have 3 FRP (2026, 2031 and 2033) to trade in the summer and all picks could have value, because the 2031 and 2033 could go in years where Luka might not be there anymore or start to decline.

Lakers problem this season is LeBron. Not because he is a bad player, but because as he simply doesn't fit next to Luka and Reaves. Of course we could say same thing for Reaves and Luka, but LeBron is not the future of the team, Luka and Reaves are. He is the odd man out after this season. Even if they resign him for vet min it would not help, as they would still be obliged to start him and lineups would not work again. Luka and Reaves lineups are great (+7.3 net rating). Luka-LeBron-Reaves lineups are a disaster (-9.8 net rating) and even just Luka-LeBron lineups don't work (-5.4 net rating). So if he is out, lineups even with the limited talent they have start making sense. LeBron is still a very good player (not max level good anymore) and he can still be a great player on a right team. Lakers with Luka and Reaves are not it and will not be it, no matter what other players one would put around them. It is not just the defense that is a problem. If all three are playing, they take around 60 shots per game out of 80 available - it is simply not enough left for other players to feel included.

This season is really tough. While it was always clear they are not a top contender, they started the season really well (LeBron not playing) which raised expectations. Now they hit a slump which is more than anything a consequence of ill fitting pieces. So now after every game it is just about pointing fingers and blaiming. One game Luka is the reason, next one is LeBron, than Ayton is the problem, than whole supporting cast sucks and so on. Tough mental situation to be in.

Lakers will have almost 50 mil to play with without LeBron and taking into account Reaves cap hold. Assuming Ayton and Smart take their options and Lakers don't trade Knecht or Vando for expiring at TDL. I kind of think Knecht will be gone at this TDL, as that unsuccessful trade really broke him - he is just awful afterwards and he needs a change of scenery. Other than that I don't think Lakers will find a great deal at TDL and will mostly stand pat, saving flexibility and assets for the summer.

The big decision will be related to Rui - is he a long term piece moving forward or not? I kind of think he could be, as he is really excellent shooter and not that bad defensively. But, they could also find another way to go and trade him this TDL (he is the only valuable expiring contract they have). I operate under assumption he stays. If I assume he will get roughly similar deal he has now, Lakers will still have 30 mil of cap space to play with. That is a great number to target one or two free agents or trade for players under contracts into cap space. I think if Lakers add one good wing (think PJ level quality), they could become very dangerous. Someone who is an elite defender and not a zero on offense. Add another player in the cap space exception.

Things could complicate if Lakers decide to move on from Ayton. He has a really bad stretch lately and there were several games in a row where Reddick prefered to finish games with Hayes. Finding both a very good center and a two-way good wing will be difficult. Possible targets for the summer if Lakers go by free agents:
- Wiggins has a player option and Lakers could incentivise him to decline it and sign with them
- if they decide to part ways with Hachimura, Eason could be a great target as Houston will have problems paying him if numbers go over 20 mil per
- OKC might decide to decline team option on Dort
- perhaps Grimes could convince decision makers he is the solution, although I think he is too weak defensively (they really need a player that takes pride playing defense)
- Ellis and Thybulle could be buy-low options

If Lakers rather decide to target trades, they will have the ammo (picks) for the likes of Herb Jones and similar players, whoever becomes available.

Final remark - I agree Rich Paul is a very unnecesary distraction. If anyone, LeBron should be the one moving to the bench and accept even more reduced role. Another reason I really hope Lakers part ways with LeBron in the summer.