Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Smitty]

DISCLAIMER, right up front: I WOULD NOT DO THIS - not a suggestion.

I'm curious, though, about the level of panic, anger or even just apathy people are feeling right about now. So, question: have we reached the point for any of you where you would INCLUDE a pick in order to make that ATL deal, rather than expect one? Genuinely curious, because the way some are talking, I have a feeling some people might be in favor.

No, I would not include a pick. There are so many variations of the ATL deal out there but I think I understand you to mean Expirings+Risacher. Where the Mavs are sending the pick in this hypothetical because Davis is a ticking time bomb.

I would however lower my asking price. I would simply do it for the swap rights of the NO pick. I’d also do it with OO instead of ZR.

I want out of the Davis business already. I’ve been optimistic and I like a lot of the on-court things but I think he’s still a positive asset and not at the salary dump level YET. The Mavs are likely stuck with him through next years TDL if I had to guess. Maybe we’ll see that Kyrie-Flagg-Davis trio after all.

[Kidnova]

IF I thought, as I feel many do, that AD's entire time here will be a dumpster fire of nonstop injuries without any hope of putting 40 games together between them, my mind would then settle on the idea that the Mavs "would be lucky to trade him in a salary dump" (to paraphrase some sentiments I'm reading), and at the point where I believed THAT, AD basically becomes TWO MORE SEASONS of supermax dead money. 

It's way more likely that this is the future than otherwise, considering AD has managed to play in more than 60 games only twice in the last 8 seasons, and one of those 2 was only 62 games.  Games played by year for AD since 2018-2019 season: 56, 62, 36, 40, 56, 56, 76, 51, 20 (this season).  Besides the outlier season of 23/24, where is the consistency expected to come from over his age 33 and 34 seasons?  

I'm not in favor of giving up an asset at this TDL to dump his contract, but if the best offer to move him this summer involves including a 2nd rounder or the 2028 pick swap, then I'd probably do that to get his salary off the books.

[KillerLeft]

Let me put it this way.

If his value last week was a young player and a 1st, what do you think his value will be this summer after this injury?  (maybe matching salaries and a meh young player.  maybe matching salaries and a distant 2029 1st) 

If he suits up for the Mavs and gets hurt again, what do you think his value will be next trade deadline?  (probably just matching salaries.  no young talent or future 1sts... aka the KP or Trae Young return)

The only way he rehabs his value is if he plays the entire first half of next season without getting injured.  I'd put the chances of that at about 10-20%.

Sure, I get the point. I think where I might feel differently is that other than the terrible timing of this injury (the exact day the Trae Young deal becomes official and 4 weeks before the deadline - tough to get worse than that), I'm not particularly freaked out about the nature of this specific injury, even in the worst case scenario involving surgery. That would probably slam the door on a TDL deal for sure, but it won't make him run slower or play worse when he comes back. It's just a drag for fans of a team hoping to trade him this month.

Like I said earlier, I'm deflated over it due to what I believe to be the loss of Risacher, specifically. None of the other rumored packages interested me more than the hope that AD could just play well here next year and for it to matter, honestly, regardless of how unlikely that hope was to be realized. If I didn't like Risacher as a fit next to Flagg so much, and I gather that most don't, I'm not sure I'd feel like much had changed this week. 

We ALL agree that the situation is a huge drag, I'm pretty sure. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the best way forward. If that ends up being a salary dump (I'm not saying it will, but IF) then I'd just as soon get it over with, frankly. We spend a lot of time around here talking about the need for a GM to be expert in the art of negotiation, and that's definitely a need, but I'd argue the most important thing needed to run a successful sports team is the ability to identify these pivotal predictive forks in the road and choose the right path. 

For me right now, the best way forward is still to treat AD like he's AD, for a variety of reasons, but I'm starting to wonder if that will end up being a mistake in hindsight when we look back on this in a couple of years.

[KillerLeft]

No, I would not include a pick. There are so many variations of the ATL deal out there but I think I understand you to mean Expirings+Risacher. Where the Mavs are sending the pick in this hypothetical because Davis is a ticking time bomb.

I would however lower my asking price. I would simply do it for the swap rights of the NO pick. I’d also do it with OO instead of ZR.

I want out of the Davis business already. I’ve been optimistic and I like a lot of the on-court things but I think he’s still a positive asset and not at the salary dump level YET. The Mavs are likely stuck with him through next years TDL if I had to guess. Maybe we’ll see that Kyrie-Flagg-Davis trio after all.

I think this is pretty much right where I am. 

I do not believe even a pick swap on that NO pick was ever likely to be on the table, however, and while that's the kind of thing I'd have been demanding in the exploratory talks leading up to offers, I'd have mostly been doing so to nudge the actual offer in a better direction, not with any actual expectation of getting that asset. And, even in the event that ATL doesn't view this latest injury as a deal breaker, which I'm hoping might be the case, I think they'll easily be able to use it as an excuse to shut down that type of ask. So, I think that might not be lowering the asking price enough at this point if you're truly motivated to get something done. 

I really like Risacher here - the idea of it - so I think your take is the closest to where I am, though I don't think OO would have me quite as excited.

[vfromlmf]

Ive come around on AD’s injury and now think it could be the BEST thing for this team. The offers for AD weren’t good so we’re not missing out anything great by not trading him now. No one was going to include a 2026 lottery pick and the Mavs need to lose as many games as possible anyway.

But the silver lining is AD has 275 million reasons to dominate next season when Kyrie is back. If AD returns to MVP form the Mavs will get much better offers next February.

AD absolutely 100% needs to be traded regardless, but I expect him to be here until the next trade deadline — and I also expect him to have a miraculously healthy season next year.

[Smitty]

I think this is pretty much right where I am. 

I do not believe even a pick swap on that NO pick was ever likely to be on the table, however, and while that's the kind of thing I'd have been demanding in the exploratory talks leading up to offers, I'd have mostly been doing so to nudge the actual offer in a better direction, not with any actual expectation of getting that asset. And, even in the event that ATL doesn't view this latest injury as a deal breaker, which I'm hoping might be the case, I think they'll easily be able to use it as an excuse to shut down that type of ask. So, I think that might not be lowering the asking price enough at this point if you're truly motivated to get something done. 

I really like Risacher here - the idea of it - so I think your take is the closest to where I am, though I don't think OO would have me quite as excited.

I’m hopeful that the potential AD trade is still alive. The problem is that I only see the Hawks as being the team that would still pull the trigger. You’ve done a great job pointing out that the Hawks lose the ability to include KP+Kennard to salary match for AD once the TDL passes, so they have a reason to keep talks alive. I’m certain that Rich Paul will be telling Bryson Graham that Davis will be back after the ASB. If no trade happens I feel pretty confident that Davis will elect to have the surgery instead.

It’s fun to keep the idea alive but it’s most likely dead in the water. 4 weeks is a long time though and a lot can change from now till then. I do expect the Mavs to make a move of some kind. Naji would be the name to watch for me. Could the Mavs combine his salary and someone like Martin just to get an expiring and fix their financials next season?

[mvossman]

I think this is pretty much right where I am. 

I do not believe even a pick swap on that NO pick was ever likely to be on the table, however, and while that's the kind of thing I'd have been demanding in the exploratory talks leading up to offers, I'd have mostly been doing so to nudge the actual offer in a better direction, not with any actual expectation of getting that asset. And, even in the event that ATL doesn't view this latest injury as a deal breaker, which I'm hoping might be the case, I think they'll easily be able to use it as an excuse to shut down that type of ask. So, I think that might not be lowering the asking price enough at this point if you're truly motivated to get something done. 

I really like Risacher here - the idea of it - so I think your take is the closest to where I am, though I don't think OO would have me quite as excited.

I think the Risacher dream is dead.  We don't even know if he was available before the AD injury.  I can't imagine they will be willing to give him up now.  If they offered expiring + Risacher and no picks I would take it in a heartbeat.

[KillerLeft]

I’m hopeful that the potential AD trade is still alive. The problem is that I only see the Hawks as being the team that would still pull the trigger. You’ve done a great job pointing out that the Hawks lose the ability to include KP+Kennard to salary match for AD once the TDL passes, so they have a reason to keep talks alive. I’m certain that Rich Paul will be telling Bryson Graham that Davis will be back after the ASB. If no trade happens I feel pretty confident that Davis will elect to have the surgery instead.

It’s fun to keep the idea alive but it’s most likely dead in the water. 4 weeks is a long time though and a lot can change from now till then. I do expect the Mavs to make a move of some kind. Naji would be the name to watch for me. Could the Mavs combine his salary and someone like Martin just to get an expiring and fix their financials next season?

Very reasonable and helpful! 

I particularly like the emboldened, as I hadn't considered the linking of those events in that order, but when you put it that way your line of thinking makes quite a bit of sense, actually.

[mvossman]

It’s fun to keep the idea alive but it’s most likely dead in the water. 4 weeks is a long time though and a lot can change from now till then. I do expect the Mavs to make a move of some kind. Naji would be the name to watch for me. Could the Mavs combine his salary and someone like Martin just to get an expiring and fix their financials next season?

Man I hate the idea of giving up Naji just to salary dump another contract.  I would much rather send out Klay for hopefully a small asset and expiring to address the cap concerns.  Then they can focus on creating a better fitting roster and accumulating younger players and assets.  Given that AD and Livey will likely both be on this roster next season, Gafford would be top on my list for this.  Naji is a good candidate for this too.

[KillerLeft]

Man I hate the idea of giving up Naji just to salary dump another contract.  I would much rather send out Klay for hopefully a small asset and expiring to address the cap concerns.  Then they can focus on creating a better fitting roster and accumulating younger players and assets.  Given that AD and Livey will likely both be on this roster next season, Gafford would be top on my list for this.  Naji is a good candidate for this too.

I don't like it, either. 

But, I am fine with giving up Marshall for some purpose. I was hoping it would be a late first, not to dump another player's contract, but I don't think he's a good fit with Flagg and I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is now.

[Smitty]

Man I hate the idea of giving up Naji just to salary dump another contract.  I would much rather send out Klay for hopefully a small asset and expiring to address the cap concerns.  Then they can focus on creating a better fitting roster and accumulating younger players and assets.  Given that AD and Livey will likely both be on this roster next season, Gafford would be top on my list for this.  Naji is a good candidate for this too.

I get it with Naji. I use him because his fit with Flagg isn’t the greatest and he’ll want to get paid more than his $9.4M. Does anyone want to give Naji 14M or so the next 3-4 years at ages 30-33 when his fit with Flagg is less than ideal?

I’m not saying it’s the only move I’d make, just something I’d have to consider. Getting off Martin’s deal is not nothing…

[mvossman]

I get it with Naji. I use him because his fit with Flagg isn’t the greatest and he’ll want to get paid more than his $9.4M. Does anyone want to give Naji 14M or so the next 3-4 years at ages 30-33 when his fit with Flagg is less than ideal?

I’m not saying it’s the only move I’d make, just something I’d have to consider. Getting off Martin’s deal is not nothing…

Getting off Martin's deal is not nothing, but I think for a team in the Mavs position (limited assets and a long timeline) the best option to handle bad contracts is to simply let them play out.  I agree with Naji being a good trade candidate, I would just rather get an asset or a better fitting part with him.

[Smitty]

Getting off Martin's deal is not nothing, but I think for a team in the Mavs position (limited assets and a long timeline) the best option to handle bad contracts is to simply let them play out.  I agree with Naji being a good trade candidate, I would just rather get an asset or a better fitting part with him.

Well yeah. That would be my preference also. All I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be upset if it was used to get off of Martin’s deal is all. (Worst case). Klay gets put in a lot in TDL hypotheticals, but I’m okay keeping him. His shooting is needed and he can be moved next year at the TDL as an expiring if it all falls apart again like it did this year.

[mvossman]

Well yeah. That would be my preference also. All I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be upset if it was used to get off of Martin’s deal is all. (Worst case). Klay gets put in a lot in TDL hypotheticals, but I’m okay keeping him. His shooting is needed and he can be moved next year at the TDL as an expiring if it all falls apart again like it did this year.

But they need to clear salary for this coming offseason.  I think Klay is showing significant signs of decline and I don't know that he will provide any value next season.  I think he is best candidate to clear that salary while trading the other guys for younger shooters.

[Smitty]

But they need to clear salary for this coming offseason.  I think Klay is showing significant signs of decline and I don't know that he will provide any value next season.  I think he is best candidate to clear that salary while trading the other guys for younger shooters.

His value is a shooter off the bench that won’t be needing a new contract and an expiring to use in a deal next year. That’s why I prefer Naji+Martin is all. Either way, I think the Mavs will do something like what we’re discussing. I just haven’t seen a lot of Naji talk on the board is all.

[Smitty]

Stein:

   


Marc Stein also reports that the Mavericks “are not rushing” to waive Dante Exum to create space to convert Ryan Nembhard to a standard NBA contract.

They are waiting to see if a trade materializes that would require his $3.3 million expiring salary.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Browsing Hawks reddit and someone posted this graphic in a discussion about Gafford.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AtlantaHawks/co...urce=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Trade Gafford to the Hawks for their 2029 1st rd pick.

In the summer, give away AD to the Hawks.

Sit back and watch AD destroy the Hawks so that 2029 pick ends up top 5.

profit?

[Smitty]

Browsing Hawks reddit and someone posted this graphic in a discussion about Gafford.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AtlantaHawks/co...urce=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

The Hawks have no need for Kennard with the addition of Kispert. Would they give up Asa in a deal? Would they just do Kennard and the CLE pick for Gafford? Do the Mavs prefer the pick or Asa?

[Winter]

I'm not sure I know enough about Asa. 

I'm more tempted to go with the pick in this draft, but I'm sure that gamble is probably a bad idea given the history of mid first-round picks. Still, I see players at 18 that look pretty good.