Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

Unless they expand this deal before it is legal, it would be tough to send CJ here in a non-aggregated way.  Plus, I think they want him to take up some of Trae’s role in the backcourt.

That is my expectation as well, which means I don't think they would be interested in sending Mavs KP and Okongwu.

[Chicagojk]

I like the trade for Washington.   There is some risk.  Mainly if Trae can only play Trae Ball and the Wizard youngsters just watch him.  But Washington doesn't need to pay their youngsters for a while so they get a look at Young.    Washington has been irrelevant for a long time.  They are still irrelevant, but they finally has a beginning of a nice young core developing.    They got the best player in the deal and now they can see if it is going to work out.

ATL independently decided they were not going to extend Young. So they got out ahead now instead of making things really awkward.    Sure it sucks the value was so low, but they have an ok/solid group of youth and a potential really nice high lottery pick.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The Wizards are operating like they're the Kings. They're crazy for taking on over 90 million left on Trae's deal. Are they seriously trying to build around him?  He's small and a sieve on defense.

Some former OKC guys in that front office now…

Greg Finberg (@GregFinberg)
The Wizards started with Bradley Beal, traded him for CP3 + six seconds + four swaps, traded CP3 for Jordan Poole + a 2030 first-round pick, dumped Poole’s salary for CJ McCollum, then traded McCollum’s expiring salary for Trae Young.

[KillerLeft]

Zaccharie Risacher having the game of his life today:

25 points (8-13 FG; 7-9 3 PT) 8 rebounds

Showing off to the Dallas brain trust.

On a side note, Onyeka Okongwu didn't play today due to an "illness".

If you're the Mavs, would you want the 20 year old Risacher who is still developing or the 25 year old Okongwu who is having a breakout season averaging 16 points 8 rebounds 3 assists and 1 block.  What's impressive is that he's shooting 49 % from the field, 36 % from 3 point land, and 77% from the FT line.  I also like his trajectory as he's improved every year that he's been in the league.

AD for expiring contracts (KP and Kennard), young player (Risacher or Okongwu) and draft capital (Atlanta currently has 2 1st round picks in 2026 - New Orleans and Cleveland)

I think Okongwu is the player that I'm targeting

I'm not sure it matters who the Mavs like better, as Okongwu is undoubtedly part of the core that has ATL tempted to trade for Davis in the first place.

[soog]

  IMG_6892.jpeg (Size: 34.74 KB / Downloads: 108)

[Chicagojk]

Some former OKC guys in that front office now…

Greg Finberg (@GregFinberg)
The Wizards started with Bradley Beal, traded him for CP3 + six seconds + four swaps, traded CP3 for Jordan Poole + a 2030 first-round pick, dumped Poole’s salary for CJ McCollum, then traded McCollum’s expiring salary for Trae Young.

Here is what Bobby Marks says.  Who knows if it anything comes out of this or if this was done by the same front office but pretty good imo.  Giving them a few shots of maybe something working out.

**************

Interesting way to look at this
Bradley Beal
to
Chris Paul
to
Jordan Poole
to
CJ McCollum
to
Trae Young
* 4 years of pick swaps
* 6 seconds
* $16M saved over the next 2 years

[Chicagojk]

Personally I don't care if the Mavs do anything or not.    My biggest concern is making the playin and then winning the playin game.   Although seeing this team recently made me think this is probably not realistic even if AD is healthy.   I think the Mavs should give it time.    Keep saying you are in no rush but keep the conversation going.   Maybe ATL wants a bargain.    If AD stays healthy (I know that is a risk) there will be more deals that come up this offseason.

[mvossman]

Personally I don't care if the Mavs do anything or not.    My biggest concern is making the playin and then winning the playin game.   Although seeing this team recently made me think this is probably not realistic even if AD is healthy.   I think the Mavs should give it time.    Keep saying you are in no rush but keep the conversation going.   Maybe ATL wants a bargain.    If AD stays healthy (I know that is a risk) there will be more deals that come up this offseason.

I'm curious what the options might be in the offseason.  With Boston and Indiana getting their superstars back, this concept of an open East will be gone.  Teams interested in AD will likely be up against aprons and I think it will be a lot harder for Mavs to shed cap in the deal.  Of the teams mentioned to have interest, I'm not sure it will be any easier for them to build a package in the offseason.  It will probably be a lot more difficult for Atlanta.  They won't have the salary fodder to make the deal by then.

[KillerLeft]

Personally I don't care if the Mavs do anything or not.    My biggest concern is making the playin and then winning the playin game.   Although seeing this team recently made me think this is probably not realistic even if AD is healthy.   I think the Mavs should give it time.    Keep saying you are in no rush but keep the conversation going.   Maybe ATL wants a bargain.    If AD stays healthy (I know that is a risk) there will be more deals that come up this offseason.

At this point, I'd be shocked if a DAL/ATL deal doesn't happen, and pretty soon.

I mean, ATL has been shopping Young for a couple of years now. They've held onto him this long, presumably because they didn't like the offers they were getting, and I doubt they were significantly worse offers than a simple, straight salary dump, which is what this trade was. They salary dumped a guy many of their fans believe is a top 10, maybe even top 5 Hawk of all time. I honestly don't think they do that, and this far in advance of the deadline no less, without having a desire to do something with the flexibility this trade gives them. Given how the rumors have been shaking out this month, it's pretty hard for me to believe this trade happened just because.

[F Gump]

With the changing landscape, here's where I would want to go.  

ATL gets AD, while still staying below the tax line now, and with no tax issue ahead either.

The meat of the deal for DAL would be AD for Risacher/NO #1/future protected #1.

I'm not sure of the totals re tax for ATL so there may need to be some tweaking, but this either fits all that or comes very close. In any event, it is definitely CBA-legal.

DAL sends AD, Hardy, DAR (perhaps expiring), Exum (expiring)
ATL sends KP (expiring), Wallace (expiring), Risacher, Kispert, NO #1, another FRP in a coming year (which can have protections, so long as it is always a FRP being sent eventually).

EDITED TO ADD - This may not work after all. ATL may have a lot less room under the tax line, which would limit the trade possibilities considerably. More notes in later post.

[KillerLeft]

Doing a deep dive on a couple of Hawks forums tonight.

FWIW, the word there is that this was almost a three team deal, including Dallas, but the Mavs pulled out at the last minute. KP didn't warm up for their game tonight, but eventually ended up dressed and on the bench.

If true, I don't know if this means a Davis to ATL deal is completely dead or what. It might just mean DAL wanted no part of Kispert (thank goodness).

Another thing I'm seeing: "Dallas wants more than cap relief and is still trying to get the Pelicans pick." Woo! Keep trying!

[DanSchwartzgan]

With the changing landscape, here's where I would want to go.  

ATL gets AD, while still staying below the tax line now, and with no tax issue ahead either.

The meat of the deal for DAL would be AD for Risacher/NO #1/future protected #1.

I'm not sure of the totals re tax for ATL so there may need to be some tweaking, but this either fits all that or comes very close. In any event, it is definitely CBA-legal.

DAL sends AD, Hardy, DAR (perhaps expiring), Exum (expiring)
ATL sends KP (expiring), Wallace (expiring), Risacher, Kispert, NO #1, another FRP in a coming year (which can have protections, so long as it is always a FRP being sent eventually).

Interesting stat:  Hawks are 6-1 in the games Wallace has started the last two seasons.  Wallace can't be traded until 1/18, which means this wouldn't have been possible if Killer is right about this almost happening tonight.  I think it could work later as a  two-part deal with D'Lo/Hardy for Kispert.

I think Atlanta ends up slightly under the tax in your version.  It would be nice to have another deal for outgoing Klay if we are taking on Kispert.

My prediction is if this happens, the unprotected pick will be the future pick and 2026 will be the Cleveland pick.  I hope I'm wrong.  If Killer is right about it almost happening tonight, maybe it's Gueye instead of Wallace?

[omahen]

I guess you can do worse than trade Luka for Ad and a pick. Atlanta traded him for McCullom, Kispert and Reddish

[F Gump]

Another thing I'm seeing: "Dallas wants more than cap relief and is still trying to get the Pelicans pick." Woo! Keep trying!

I see it as ATL who has been "trying" to get the unlikely. It takes strong value/assets, to get a difference-making player. But they want to keep all of Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu, etc etc -- ie, all the players they have who are good value. Their other (own) picks will be worthless, once they add AD to their talent mix.

All that's really left is the NO pick, and DAL has likely told them that's necessary. Duh. As for how they REALLY feel about letting go of it, it feels to me like their leaks they "won't" trade it have been pure PR to set up a way to either let their fans down easy on trading it, or on not getting AD. 

Risacher and the NO pick (and hopefully a later year FRP as well, protected but eventually a FRP) is not an exorbitant ask at all for a defender like AD who can dominate the middle and change ATL's trajectory, and who can also give some scoring. They can't get a player like that elsewhere. This is their one chance, and they likely are very aware of that. imo

They know they really need to up their D if they are even going to be elite. They keep edging that way. They really NEED to make this deal, badly.

About the Trae deal. There are multiple ways to make the match numbers work, and the challenge is keeping ATL under the tax line while also not making issues for DAL having too many bodies. Looping DAL into the WAS swap would have opened some possibilities that might make those easier.

But if if I'm the Mavs, my "line in the sand" so to speak would be Risarcher, the NO #1, and a future protected FRP, and the rest of the salary match something to negotiate and compromise on. 

One way to add some flexibility would be for ATL to just take some extra salary and pay some tax. And what if the Mavs offered to send cash to cover the tax bill, as a concession? However, that won't work, because ATL would lose out on a share of the tax collections (est is about $25M per team). So the Mavs' "compromise" would have to be in regards to number of bodies sent, or which bodies, to balance the trade.

[F Gump]

Interesting stat:  Hawks are 6-1 in the games Wallace has started the last two seasons.  Wallace can't be traded until 1/18, which means this wouldn't have been possible if Killer is right about this almost happening tonight. 

1 I think it could work later as a two-part deal with D'Lo/Hardy for Kispert.

I think Atlanta ends up slightly under the tax in your version.  It would be nice to have another deal for outgoing Klay if we are taking on Kispert.

2 My prediction is if this happens, the unprotected pick will be the future pick and 2026 will be the Cleveland pick.  I hope I'm wrong.  If Killer is right about it almost happening tonight, maybe it's Gueye instead of Wallace?

1 " D'Lo/Hardy for Kispert" -- Doesn't match unless you add Exum (3 for 1) and you then need AD to be swapped for 3 (KP, R, and a small salary). However, Wallace or Gueye may be too small outgoing to keep them below tax line, in fact - I originally worked from your "8.3Mish" number, and on closer examination I think it's only about 6.64M of space. 

I hope your number is right, but if not, it really limits the possibilities, because of the roster limits and the looming addition of Nemby. 

It gets very tricky. The only expiring contracts they have, with one to waive before an uneven trade to make it allowable, and then another to waive for Nemby later, would be DP and Exum, unless the terms of the DAR deal does not pay him for that year if he is waived before the option is exercised. The only real solve I came to was ...

AD-Hardy [or DAR, but much prefer Hardy goes] for KP-R-Kennard. The Mavs end up waiving both DP and Exum, which is not preferable, and also only move Hardy off the payroll. Not a very satisfying solution, but it's okay imo IF they get the right picks. IF. With only 6.64M to work with, I don't see any avenue to Kispert because the trade ends up massive.

Side note - Nico really screwed up the payroll big time, with his Hardy and Martin own-goal moves. Sheesh. What a nightmare to navigate past. 

2 "the unprotected pick will be the future pick and 2026 will be the Cleveland pick" -- If I am DAL, that's not even close to acceptable. The expected end result for ATL is that their future picks will all be junk, as they rise to the top of the East. There are no assets going to DAL in that deal.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Atlanta put themself in the corner gifted away Young... Now it's time to stab them hard.

[meistermatze]

You guys are absolutely delusional if you think we could get both Risacher and the Pelicans pick for AD. I keep repeating this, but it seems to be ignored: AD is one injury away from being out of the league, and everyone knows it. On top of that, his contract is enormous.

Yes, he makes you an instant contender if healthy and it might work out this season but he is an extremely high-risk asset. And the most important part: the entire league knows the Mavs cannot afford to wait. If AD gets injured while still on their roster, his trade value instantly collapses. That urgency is obvious to every front office in the league, and it completely destroys Dallas’ leverage in trade negotiations.

So please stop pretending this is some fantasy scenario where AD still has superstar trade value. You remind me of the “Stranger Things”-crowd, where you all collectively will yourselves into an alternate reality. AD’s trade value is already heavily discounted, whether we like it or not.

If we manage to get either Risacher or the Pelicans pick plus some cap relief (for example, taking on a contract like Porzingis), that would be a massive win for us - and honestly, I’m not even convinced that is realistic.

[FireNicoHarrison]

That pick is out of the trade for sure.

But Risacher and Cle 2026 are enough for me. Otherwise next team step up.

That's not another Doncic trade in the shadow with just 1 teams, THIS IS A BIDDING WAR.

Keep calm e listen the offers. Relax.

[Winter]

You guys are absolutely delusional if you think we could get both Risacher and the Pelicans pick for AD. I keep repeating this, but it seems to be ignored: AD is one injury away from being out of the league, and everyone knows it. On top of that, his contract is enormous.

Yes, he makes you an instant contender if healthy and it might work out this season but he is an extremely high-risk asset. And the most important part: the entire league knows the Mavs cannot afford to wait. If AD gets injured while still on their roster, his trade value instantly collapses. That urgency is obvious to every front office in the league, and it completely destroys Dallas’ leverage in trade negotiations.

So please stop pretending this is some fantasy scenario where AD still has superstar trade value. You remind me of the “Stranger Things”-crowd, where you all collectively will yourselves into an alternate reality. AD’s trade value is already heavily discounted, whether we like it or not.

If we manage to get either Risacher or the Pelicans pick plus some cap relief (for example, taking on a contract like Porzingis), that would be a massive win for us - and honestly, I’m not even convinced that is realistic.

I think there are more than a few people that think the Pelicans pick is not really in play. It seems to me Atlanta has already told their fan base that it's off limits.

I do think they want to squeeze two picks out of it though.

[meistermatze]

That pick is out of the trade for sure.
But Risacher and Cle 2026 are enough for me. Otherwise next team step up.
That's not another Doncic trade in the shadow with just 1 teams, THIS IS A BIDDING WAR.
Keep calm e listen the offers. Relax.

Agreed on that front. There is a market for AD, and it’s not a bad one, but we need to manage expectations given the constraints I mentioned earlier. I’d also add that cap relief - moving off AD’s contract - would be extremely valuable under the current CBA. To be honest, it would take a genuinely strong pick for me to prefer that over the financial flexibility.