'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[KillerLeft]

I don’t think it’s wise to start a playoff rotation thread in November going forward.

Hahaha, my fault. Sorry, my dude - felt safe coming off of a finals run. Lesson learned.

[SleepingHero]

Hahaha, my fault. Sorry, my dude - felt safe coming off of a finals run. Lesson learned.

That’s the thing. 

We all knew that the team in November was going to the playoffs barring something extraordinarily horrible happening.


We just didn’t think the Mavs would CHOOSE the path of no playoffs.

[LukaMVP]

if the mavs were fully healthy they would still be a playoff team with the 2nd round being their floor. now with so many guys injured i would rather they miss the playoffs and get a good rookie from the stacked draft, than snatch a spot in the playoffs only to get bounced in the first round.

[mvossman]

if the mavs were fully healthy they would still be a playoff team with the 2nd round being their floor. now with so many guys injured i would rather they miss the playoffs and get a good rookie from the stacked draft, than snatch a spot in the playoffs only to get bounced in the first round.

Hard to say second round would be the floor.  We don't even know what a healthy team will look like yet.  Its hard to make this many changes and make a deep run in the playoffs, and in a stacked West they were likely going to face a strong opponent in the first round.

[Smitty]

Hahaha, my fault. Sorry, my dude - felt safe coming off of a finals run. Lesson learned.

I'm just glad I have someone other than Nico to blame now, you're on the list KL! 

[Scott41theMavs]

So the remaining team looks like:
Starters: Kyrie, Klay, PJ (when healthy), AD, Lively (when healthy)
Optimal bench players: Exum, Christie, Martin (when he gets healthy), Naji, Gafford
Supplemental bench: Spencer, Hardy, OMax, Powell (when healthy), plus two-ways Kylor, Kessler, Williams

Thank goodness for the injuries, because tanking is key the rest of the way this year. Need our pick to be a good one, if not the Flagg consolation prize. Without the three injuries (four if you count Powell, which you shouldn't), that's a team that's way too good to tank and way too poor to make noise in the playoffs.

Have to say that the PJ-AD-Gafford frontcourt was way more impressive than I expected today, and actually makes me drool a little for PJ-AD-Lively (which we won't see for a long time - maybe next year). But way the hell too much quantity-not-quality in the guards.

Five of the top ten players injured, plus Dwight. No bigs aside from Kylor and OMax (and Kessler for the 4). Playoffs? LOL

[KillerLeft]

Should I unpin this thread now, or wait for the incoming horrible AD injury news to drop first?

[Scott41theMavs]

Should I unpin this thread now, or wait for the incoming horrible AD injury news to drop first?

I think the thread is a good way for us to track which good players are injured. Perhaps the "organic tank rotation" thread would be a better thread title.

[SleepingHero]

Should I unpin this thread now, or wait for the incoming horrible AD injury news to drop first?

Now that AD is confirmed to be out for at least 3 weeks I think its time to unpin it.

Maybe the Mavs surprise us. I'm not really confident that they will. Honestly on second thought, no more surprises from this team. Each surprise has been heart breaking.

[KillerLeft]

Ok, unpinning this thread so that it can die. The sooner it reaches page 2, the sooner we can all start healing.

Sorry I jinxed the season, everyone! I'll never forgive myself.

[LukaMVP]

not your fault bro no one expected injuries could hit us so hard given how deep our roster seemed to be. most of the injuries happened to our bigs somehow and left us severely shorthanded at 4 and 5, to make things worse, maxi and Morris were also sent away.

[LukaMVP]

hate to say it but our tank seems to have been totally wrecked due to the resilient efforts by Kyrie, Christie, Dante, omax as our C and many others, and even Jason Kidd looks somewhat decent and competent in recent games. so is it time to re-stick this thread now?

when everyone is healthy (which is not impossible by playoff time) we probably have the strongest roster of the league imho. Kyrie, davis and a center (either lively or gafford) should be our starters, while the other two starters will be selected according to matchups, in the range of klay, naji, Christie and pj. klay gives the best shooting and championship experience, Christie provides energy and superb defense, pj provides size and also good defense, while naji is perhaps the best handler of the four. this is the 8 man rotation we will use most in the playoffs imho, with solid role players to back them up such as martin, dante, din, omax... deep and stacked.

[F Gump]

When everyone is healthy, I think the playoff minutes-by-position will look something like the following:

Gafford, Lively (and AD)             
AD  (and PJW)                           
PJW, Christie      
Klay (and Christie, Exum)  
Kyrie, Exum      

I think only those 8 would be certain to get solid playing time, as we stand now, and after that it's all up in the air for some leftover scraps. 

I do think a wildcard is Martin - when we see him play, who knows, he may change the thinking and force his way into a role. He's been really good in the playoffs. 

I know Marshall has been a regular all season, but I think when the rotations get tightened, there are too many ahead of him for him to play a lot.

That's with everyone healthy, of course, and based on how this season has gone, that's probably unrealistic all by itself.

[KillerLeft]

When everyone is healthy, I think the playoff minutes-by-position will look something like the following:

Gafford, Lively (and AD)             
AD  (and PJW)                           
PJW, Christie      
Klay (and Christie, Exum)  
Kyrie, Exum      

I think only those 8 would be certain to get solid playing time, as we stand now, and after that it's all up in the air for some leftover scraps. 

I do think a wildcard is Martin - when we see him play, who knows, he may change the thinking and force his way into a role. He's been really good in the playoffs. 

I know Marshall has been a regular all season, but I think when the rotations get tightened, there are too many ahead of him for him to play a lot.

That's with everyone healthy, of course, and based on how this season has gone, that's probably unrealistic all by itself.

I think this is about right, but I believe they hold Dinwiddie's role this season in higher regard than you do. During the best stretch of the season, Kidd was closing games with him, even over a healthy Klay Thompson. Over Grimes. Christie and Exum change things, I think, but still. I think Dinwiddie is currently 9th and should be listed as an everyday automatic, at least for now. 

And, I agree Martin will get a shot to find his way in.

[F Gump]

I think this is about right, but I believe they hold Dinwiddie's role this season in higher regard than you do. During the best stretch of the season, Kidd was closing games with him, even over a healthy Klay Thompson. Over Grimes. Christie and Exum change things, I think, but still. I think Dinwiddie is currently 9th and should be listed as an everyday automatic, at least for now. 

And, I agree Martin will get a shot to find his way in.

Re SD, perhaps. But I think 2 things trend in the other direction:
1 the time you think of was a time when they were short handed, and Exum was not an option ... now he will have to be better than Exum to play PG minutes, and I don't he is, especially at PG. 
2 as you noticed, he was used instead of Klay ... that's minutes from the SG/SF basket, which "when everyone is healthy" is now definitely going to be feeding many playoff minutes to PJW, Klay, and Christie, and if any are left then I think both Marshall and Martin will be ahead of SD in that pecking order. Yes Grimes is gone, but Christie, PJW, and Martin have all been added to the mix, and I would say Exum too (for playoff SG minutes, when Kyrie is getting 35 or more at PG).

[Smitty]

Re SD, perhaps. But I think 2 things trend in the other direction:
1 the time you think of was a time when they were short handed, and Exum was not an option ... now he will have to be better than Exum to play PG minutes, and I don't he is, especially at PG. 
2 as you noticed, he was used instead of Klay ... that's minutes from the SG/SF basket, which "when everyone is healthy" is now definitely going to be feeding many playoff minutes to PJW, Klay, and Christie, and if any are left then I think both Marshall and Martin will be ahead of SD in that pecking order. Yes Grimes is gone, but Christie, PJW, and Martin have all been added to the mix, and I would say Exum too (for playoff SG minutes, when Kyrie is getting 35 or more at PG).

Kind of incredible that the Mavs can play an 8-man rotation in the playoffs that doesn’t include Naji and Martin, who are very good. For as much as I’ve silently cussed Nico this week, this is the deepest team the Mavs have had in years.

[Scott41theMavs]

Kind of incredible that the Mavs can play an 8-man rotation in the playoffs that doesn’t include Naji and Martin, who are very good. For as much as I’ve silently cussed Nico this week, this is the deepest team the Mavs have had in years.

I would argue that the Luka-Kai-PJ-Klay-Lively-Gafford-Grimes-Marshall-Exum team would have been almost as deep.

[Smitty]

I would argue that the Luka-Kai-PJ-Klay-Lively-Gafford-Grimes-Marshall-Exum team would have been almost as deep.

I’m mostly referring to past seasons. The ones before Nico. We’ve had to play some bad players out of necessity for many years.

[LukaMVP]

we'll probably see Christie starting in some games where defense is the priority. dude has been so consistent and efficient since he became a mav he definitely deserves a try in the starting five. even playing off the bench he still got starter minutes the past few games.

[F Gump]

we'll probably see Christie starting in some games where defense is the priority. dude has been so consistent and efficient since he became a mav he definitely deserves a try in the starting five. even playing off the bench he still got starter minutes the past few games.

I agree that Christie is starter quality, but if everyone is healthy, I don't see who he replaces. None of these are weak on defense except Kyrie, and Christie's certainly not starting at PG. I think he's 6th man for now.

C - Gaff/Lively
PF - AD
SF - PJW
SG - Klay
PG - Kyrie

He's certainly the Next Starter Up if any of AD, PJW, or Klay are out, however.