FA: Klay Thompson Comes to Dallas| 3yrs/50mil

[KillerLeft]

https://x.com/dallasmavs/status/1809225882080260352

Interesting the official Mavs twitter account is tweeting Hardy's player picture as #3 instead of his current #1.

Unless this is just a mistake (could easily be) then it seems like Thompson will be #1.

[The Jom]

Klay’s defense looks good to my eyeballs. So I’m a bit confused by all the negative posts here. My attempt to justify optimism with stats:

1. W’s most used 5-man lineup (232 mins of Curry/Green/Wiggins/Kuminga/Podziemski) posted an excellent defensive rating of 105.0 (net 12.3) for the season per NBA.com.

2. But sub Thompson for the rookie and you have the second most used 5-man (157 mins) and an astonishing 98.0 defensive rating (net 18.1) for Curry/Green/Wiggins/Kuminga/Thompson.

3. Now swap Kuminga out for Looney—their only true center—and you get the third most used 5-man lineup (140 mins) and an awful 118.1 defensive rating (net —9.1) for Curry/Green/Wiggins/Looney/Thompson. But I don’t see how you can blame Thompson for having to play with Looney.

4. Replace the defenders from that lineup (Green/Wiggins) with the youngsters (Kuminga/Podziemski) and you get the fourth most used 5-man lineup (108 mins) and a barely conceivable defensive rating of 132.6 (net -19.1) for Curry/Kuminga/Podziemski/Looney/Thompson. And again, this is not something you can readily blame on Thompson’s decline.

5. Sitting the youngsters in favor of sometimes defensive-minded Wiggins plus 39-year-old Chris Paul gets you to the fifth most used 5-man lineup (93 mins) and a very respectable 106.5 defensive rating (net 18.2) for Curry/Wiggins/Paul/Looney/Thompson. Which further confirms Thompson’s defense wasn’t the problem with the Looney lineups (pun intended) listed above.

6. Finally, swapping out senior citizens Paul and Looney for Green and Jackson-Davis brings us to the sixth most used 5-man lineup (69 mins) and a team-best defensive rating of 89.8 (net 28.3) for Curry/Wiggins/Green/Jackson-Davis/Thompson. Which appears to be the W’s best lineup. [Edit: Looney is only 28, I was surprised to discover. He merely looks like a senior citizen.] [Second edit: Not actually team-best defensive rating. But if you look at em critically, you’ll find those small-sample-lineup stats suspect for various reasons.]

Of the remaining lineups, the best defensive ones all include Thompson till you get below 30-minute samples.

Perhaps there are better ways to isolate and assess Klay’s defensive play. But looking at lineups, it’s a lot easier to identify decline in Looney’s play than in Klay’s. And the cynic in me wonders if how they used Klay had more to do with attempting to manage his contract negotiations than how much his defensive abilities had actually declined.

I’ll add this. 2011 Jason Kidd was no longer a 40-minute defensive force. He was not assigned the opposition’s best scoring threat for quarters 1, 2, or 3. But come the closing 6 minutes of the game? Dude would lock somebody down. And his game-closing D looked every bit as dominant to me as in his best years. Perhaps that’s a bit too much to expect of Klay. But I’m not sure about that. It certainly isn’t too much to hope for.

[mvossman]

Klay’s defense looks good to my eyeballs. So I’m a bit confused by all the negative posts here. My attempt to justify optimism with stats:

1. W’s most used 5-man lineup (232 mins of Curry/Green/Wiggins/Kuminga/Podziemski) posted an excellent defensive rating of 105.0 (net 12.3) for the season per NBA.com.

2. But sub Thompson for the rookie and you have the second most used 5-man (157 mins) and an astonishing 98.0 defensive rating (net 18.1) for Curry/Green/Wiggins/Kuminga/Thompson.

3. Now swap Kuminga out for Looney—their only true center—and you get the third most used 5-man lineup (140 mins) and an awful 118.1 defensive rating (net —9.1) for Curry/Green/Wiggins/Looney/Thompson. But I don’t see how you can blame Thompson for having to play with Looney.

4. Replace the defenders from that lineup (Green/Wiggins) with the youngsters (Kuminga/Podziemski) and you get the fourth most used 5-man lineup (108 mins) and a barely conceivable defensive rating of 132.6 (net -19.1) for Curry/Kuminga/Podziemski/Looney/Thompson. And again, this is not something you can readily blame on Thompson’s decline.

5. Sitting the youngsters in favor of sometimes defensive-minded Wiggins plus 39-year-old Chris Paul gets you to the fifth most used 5-man lineup (93 mins) and a very respectable 106.5 defensive rating (net 18.2) for Curry/Wiggins/Paul/Looney/Thompson. Which further confirms Thompson’s defense wasn’t the problem with the Looney lineups (pun intended) listed above.

6. Finally, swapping out senior citizens Paul and Looney for Green and Jackson-Davis brings us to the sixth most used 5-man lineup (69 mins) and a team-best defensive rating of 89.8 (net 28.3) for Curry/Wiggins/Green/Jackson-Davis/Thompson. Which appears to be the W’s best lineup.

Of the remaining lineups, the best defensive ones all include Thompson till you get below 30-minute samples.

Perhaps there are better ways to isolate and assess Klay’s defensive play. But looking at lineups, it’s a lot easier to identify decline in Looney’s play than in Klay’s. And the cynic in me wonders if how they used Klay had more to do with attempting to manage his contract negotiations than how much his defensive abilities had actually declined.

I’ll add this. 2011 Jason Kidd was no longer a 40-minute defensive force. He was not assigned the opposition’s best scoring threat for quarters 1, 2, or 3. But come the closing 6 minutes of the game? Dude would lock somebody down. And his game-closing D looked every bit as dominant to me as in his best years. Perhaps that’s a bit too much to expect of Klay. But I’m not sure about that. It certainly isn’t too much to hope for.

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor?  

For me the concern is more about a starting lineup without a POA defender. Maybe that is not as important as I think. Maybe Lively makes that much less of a concern. I just know that what they were doing really worked from a defensive standpoint and I have concerns going away from it.

[Dirknows]

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor?  

For me the concern is more about a starting lineup without a POA defender. Maybe that is not as important as I think. Maybe Lively makes that much less of a concern. I just know that what they were doing really worked from a defensive standpoint and I have concerns going away from it.

Lively is gonna be a top-5 defensive center next season.

[KillerLeft]

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor?  

For me the concern is more about a starting lineup without a POA defender. Maybe that is not as important as I think. Maybe Lively makes that much less of a concern. I just know that what they were doing really worked from a defensive standpoint and I have concerns going away from it.

I think you're right to be concerned about the triangular fit on defense between Thompson, Kyrie and Luka. That's valid, but maybe not as concerning as the offense was in the finals, especially considering that other teams will try to replicate that strategy against Dallas now. 

But, I think that in a vacuum, Thompson's defensive decline is bing hyperbolized, somewhat. I think that in a general sense, he's going to be a much better defender than Luka or Kyrie, and that will probably be true through this entire contract (that last part might be pushing it). I think he's very likely to be a plus addition in terms of team defense, attention to detail with rotations, etc, and possibly even one of the team's best in that type of way. You don't win four rings without understanding that you have to make yourself useful on both ends. Hopefully, he can even help expedite the trend of Luka starting to understand this.

Again, the only issue is about Thompson playing at times when DJJ would've (I agree with you), because there's no chance Klay acts as the deodorant to Luka/Kyrie's shortcomings on that end that Jones did. But, he will, as others have said, have Washington and Lively out there to help, and the offense might be so much better in the specific lineup you're worried about that they come out ahead in the aggregate. 

Further, the other two additions, Marshall and Grimes, are both defensive pluses, which to my count puts them at one additional plus defender in the rotation from last season. And, playing either/both of them is easier, because they'll both contribute quite a bit on offense. 

In light of the last point re Marshall/Grimes, I think the other worry that's being overblown a little is that the entire orgainziaton will be walking on eggshells around Thompson, caring most about whether or not he is happy with his role. I do think he's coming here to start, at least at the beginning of the season, and I'm sure he'd love to be a closer, but I also think he has been around the block enough to know what that means (he understands both the strengths and weaknesses of how he fits with Kyrie/Luka better than we ever will, I suspect). I believe that when push comes to shove, Kidd is going to make choices intended to win, not to keep Thompson happy. I also think Thompson will understand this, since, by all accounts, he took less money to be here in order to have a shot to win. 

Thompson is making way, way less money than we feared when this rumor first started. His starting salary is THJ/PJ Washington money. Do we think they'd be scared to sit either of them, if they thought it would help them win? I think Kidd was desperately hoping Hardaway would break out of his funk at some point during the playoffs, and honestly, had he been playing well, I think he'd have made a difference in the finals. I still think they lose, but it might have at least been a semi-competitive series. He was an integral part of the way they were designed to play, and unplayable. Thompson brings that back into the mix, only even better (on both ends). 

I think it might take some time for the team to find the best way to rotate the players to maximum positive effect, and finding that might require Kidd to up his "adjusting on the fly" game a little, but I feel good about the talent and fit of the top guys, mostly. Something had to change, because the Mavs' offense ended as a bad joke.

[Chicagojk]

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor?  

For me the concern is more about a starting lineup without a POA defender. Maybe that is not as important as I think. Maybe Lively makes that much less of a concern. I just know that what they were doing really worked from a defensive standpoint and I have concerns going away from it.

It is my concern as well.  I think (hope) it won’t be a huge problem in the regular season when teams have deeper rotations.  The playoffs are a different animal.  Especially if Klay is going to get a lot of minutes.  We have time to figure that out though

[The Jom]

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor? 

. . . 

Very good question. I don’t have answers. But I wouldn’t assume the explanation is that the top-six 5-man lineup data is misleading and the individual data is the truth revealed. It could be that. But I doubt it.

[audiosway]

I’m wondering how his lineup data looks this good while his individual defensive rating was poor?  

For me the concern is more about a starting lineup without a POA defender. Maybe that is not as important as I think. Maybe Lively makes that much less of a concern. I just know that what they were doing really worked from a defensive standpoint and I have concerns going away from it.

I have a completely different take on Klay with the Mavs. Everyone here is worried about a POA defender. I think Klay can still be that and actually play better defense than DJJ. Let me explain why.

DJJ was great at staying in front of players and making things very difficult on them. His help defense was very good as well.

Klay can still stay in front of players and has no problem guiding them into help. The difference is that Klay creates more turnovers. That's not something DJJ did a ton of.

Klay has incredibly active hands. He is much smarter on defense than DJJ too. There is a reason that Klay is getting $50m/3 and DJJ is getting $30m/3. Shooting does play a big part of that. But, Klay will also have a positive impact on Luka and Kai playing defense as well.

Luka and Kai are getting worn down playing defense. It's because of the style of defense they have been playing. They are playing more to slow down the offensive player. POA or Man to Man. That's a hard style to play due to it being more exhausting and it still not always stopping the opponent. Klay has never really played that type of defense. He plays more of a ball hawking defense. That's what GS has played through their dynasty. It's also an easier style to play in that it doesn't wear you down as much.

Watch closely with Klay. He plays what I always called a swipe and grab defense. Dirk played that style. Klay is very strong. So, he will slide his feet at the POA of the player then swipe at the ball when they attempt a cross over or other move. It results in a good amount of turnovers without having to stay with the opponent the entire possession. It also creates a lot of fast breaks as a result. That's why the Warriors always play so fast.

Klay is also very good at blocking shots from behind when the player goes by. Then, there are times he'll just grab the ball and take it away from the opponent. These are the kind of things that active hands and BBIQ provide. It's also stuff that Luka and Kai can pick up working with Klay. There are plenty of things that Klay does on the floor that you won't see in the box score. His intangibles are off the charts.

That's why Kidd was still so good on D with Dallas. He couldn't really move anymore but he had incredibly active hands. I think the D next year overall will be better between this and the continuity of the group having more time together.

[The Jom]

I have a completely different take on Klay with the Mavs. Everyone here is worried about a POA defender. I think Klay can still be that and actually play better defense than DJJ. Let me explain why.

DJJ was great at staying in front of players and making things very difficult on them. His help defense was very good as well.

Klay can still stay in front of players and has no problem guiding them into help. The difference is that Klay creates more turnovers. That's not something DJJ did a ton of.

Klay has incredibly active hands. He is much smarter on defense than DJJ too. There is a reason that Klay is getting $50m/3 and DJJ is getting $30m/3. Shooting does play a big part of that. But, Klay will also have a positive impact on Luka and Kai playing defense as well.

Luka and Kai are getting worn down playing defense. It's because of the style of defense they have been playing. They are playing more to slow down the offensive player. POA or Man to Man. That's a hard style to play due to it being more exhausting and it still not always stopping the opponent. Klay has never really played that type of defense. He plays more of a ball hawking defense. That's what GS has played through their dynasty. It's also an easier style to play in that it doesn't wear you down as much.

Watch closely with Klay. He plays what I always called a swipe and grab defense. Dirk played that style. Klay is very strong. So, he will slide his feet at the POA of the player then swipe at the ball when they attempt a cross over or other move. It results in a good amount of turnovers without having to stay with the opponent the entire possession. It also creates a lot of fast breaks as a result. That's why the Warriors always play so fast.

Klay is also very good at blocking shots from behind when the player goes by. Then, there are times he'll just grab the ball and take it away from the opponent. These are the kind of things that active hands and BBIQ provide. It's also stuff that Luka and Kai can pick up working with Klay.

That's why Kidd was still so good on D with Dallas. He couldn't really move anymore but he had incredibly active hands. I think the D next year overall will be better between this and the continuity of the group having more time together.

I like this take. But I worry it’s more about celeb status with the refs than it is about defensive skill. And I don’t think Klay or any Mav sans Luka will get celeb whistles (or non-whistles) here next year.

[mvossman]

I think you're right to be concerned about the triangular fit on defense between Thompson, Kyrie and Luka. That's valid, but maybe not as concerning as the offense was in the finals, especially considering that other teams will try to replicate that strategy against Dallas now. 

But, I think that in a vacuum, Thompson's defensive decline is bing hyperbolized, somewhat. I think that in a general sense, he's going to be a much better defender than Luka or Kyrie, and that will probably be true through this entire contract (that last part might be pushing it). I think he's very likely to be a plus addition in terms of team defense, attention to detail with rotations, etc, and possibly even one of the team's best in that type of way. You don't win four rings without understanding that you have to make yourself useful on both ends. Hopefully, he can even help expedite the trend of Luka starting to understand this.

Again, the only issue is about Thompson playing at times when DJJ would've (I agree with you), because there's no chance Klay acts as the deodorant to Luka/Kyrie's shortcomings on that end that Jones did. But, he will, as others have said, have Washington and Lively out there to help, and the offense might be so much better in the specific lineup you're worried about that they come out ahead in the aggregate. 

Further, the other two additions, Marshall and Grimes, are both defensive pluses, which to my count puts them at one additional plus defender in the rotation from last season. And, playing either/both of them is easier, because they'll both contribute quite a bit on offense. 

In light of the last point re Marshall/Grimes, I think the other worry that's being overblown a little is that the entire orgainziaton will be walking on eggshells around Thompson, caring most about whether or not he is happy with his role. I do think he's coming here to start, at least at the beginning of the season, and I'm sure he'd love to be a closer, but I also think he has been around the block enough to know what that means (he understands both the strengths and weaknesses of how he fits with Kyrie/Luka better than we ever will, I suspect). I believe that when push comes to shove, Kidd is going to make choices intended to win, not to keep Thompson happy. I also think Thompson will understand this, since, by all accounts, he took less money to be here in order to have a shot to win. 

Thompson is making way, way less money than we feared when this rumor first started. His starting salary is THJ/PJ Washington money. Do we think they'd be scared to sit either of them, if they thought it would help them win? I think Kidd was desperately hoping Hardaway would break out of his funk at some point during the playoffs, and honestly, had he been playing well, I think he'd have made a difference in the finals. I still think they lose, but it might have at least been a semi-competitive series. He was an integral part of the way they were designed to play, and unplayable. Thompson brings that back into the mix, only even better (on both ends). 

I think it might take some time for the team to find the best way to rotate the players to maximum positive effect, and finding that might require Kidd to up his "adjusting on the fly" game a little, but I feel good about the talent and fit of the top guys, mostly. Something had to change, because the Mavs' offense ended as a bad joke.

I hope your right regarding Klay starting. If it had been the crazy contract I feared, I was sure we would be trapped into starting/finishing him regardless of what worked. I still have concerns given that was the final straw with GS and stars get a ton of leeway in general. I have no question Klay would be valuable coming off the bench, and if I was confident Kidd is willing to go there if it clearly made sense I would have zero issues with this offseason.

[KillerLeft]

I hope your right regarding Klay starting. If it had been the crazy contract I feared, I was sure we would be trapped into starting/finishing him regardless of what worked. I still have concerns given that was the final straw with GS and stars get a ton of leeway in general. I have no question Klay would be valuable coming off the bench, and if I was confident Kidd is willing to go there if it clearly made sense I would have zero issues with this offseason.

I know this is a terrible comparison, and that Thompson is in a different tier completely, but they promised JaVale McGee he'd start, too. That lasted about four games, I think. 

I get what you're saying, but I don't think they're locked into anything that's not working, and I actually think there are ways to make him work as a starter. If there's one thing Dallas knows how to do, it's to have a "token" starter in their rotation. Seems like they do that a lot, including last season, even in the playoffs. 

And, I'm not AS convinced you are that the lineup you're concerned about won't work. I'm a little wary, but I got over it once I thought about it for a few days.

[Winter]

I know this is a terrible comparison, and that Thompson is in a different tier completely, but they promised JaVale McGee he'd start, too. That lasted about four games, I think. 

I get what you're saying, but I don't think they're locked into anything that's not working, and I actually think there are ways to make him work as a starter. If there's one thing Dallas knows how to do, it's to have a "token" starter in their rotation. Seems like they do that a lot, including last season, even in the playoffs. 

And, I'm not AS convinced you are that the lineup you're concerned about won't work. I'm a little wary, but I got over it once I thought about it for a few days.

One of the unknowns is whether the Kyrie and Luka defense we saw in the playoffs has some carry-over into the new season. Can you get that effort from them in regular season games? 

I think Kyrie, Luka, and Klay will need to be made aware of the necessity for real defensive effort with this lineup. If I were Jason Kidd, I'd be talking this shit to Luka as soon as he finishes his play for Slovenia. His knee, conditioning, expectations....

[Chicagojk]

One of the unknowns is whether the Kyrie and Luka defense we saw in the playoffs has some carry-over into the new season. Can you get that effort from them in regular season games? 

I think Kyrie, Luka, and Klay will need to be made aware of the necessity for real defensive effort with this lineup. If I were Jason Kidd, I'd be talking this shit to Luka as soon as he finishes his play for Slovenia. His knee, conditioning, expectations....

Maybe a reduced workload could help….especially in the first half of the season.  May be why Dallas could be exploring guards.  Either in case of emergency or them questioning if they have someone on their roster who can help us win if Luka is at 32 minutes and Kyrie 30 minutes on a random middle of the week game early in the season.

[Smitty]

Maybe a reduced workload could help….especially in the first half of the season.  May be why Dallas could be exploring guards.  Either in case of emergency or them questioning if they have someone on their roster who can help us win if Luka is at 32 minutes and Kyrie 30 minutes on a random middle of the week game early in the season.

That why I’ve been so adamant about a hole at PG. There’s no way the Mavs think it’s sustainable playing Luka 37.5 mpg again next year. Kyrie 35.0. 

Luka his rookie year played 32.2. I don’t think that’s realistic either but getting it down to 33-34 feels like a good target (he averaged 33.6 his second year and 34.3 his 3rd). 

Kryie was actually well below where he’s been the last 5 years but he’s getting older and has missed several games.

Ideally, the Mavs have the depth to get Luka closer to 34mpg and Kyrie 32. It makes a big difference over an 82 game season and then deep playoff runs, that they now have to anticipate and plan for. If/When Exum, Luka, Kyrie are out there’s no PG to fill the hole and those 3 missed 63 games last year. 

In a perfect world this his how I see the 10-man regular season rotation when everyone is healthy:

Luka 34 | Exum 14
Kyrie 32 | Hardy 16
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 28 | Naji 20
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

Maxi being the 11th guy that can provide a specialist/5-out Center role over Gafford, if needed. Lowry/DSJ/Dinwidde being the emergency 3rd PG or sliding Exum to that role. Then you have Omax getting developmental minutes when PJ or Naji are out. Powell filling in when Lively/Gafford are out. Morris being the locker room guy that holds it all together.

[Smitty]

By the way, some excellent back and forth analysis and discussion here. I have nothing to add really other than an appreciation and respect for the smart people on this board. Great reading material!

[SleepingHero]

Some clips of Klay practicing.

[mvossman]

I know this is a terrible comparison, and that Thompson is in a different tier completely, but they promised JaVale McGee he'd start, too. That lasted about four games, I think. 

I get what you're saying, but I don't think they're locked into anything that's not working, and I actually think there are ways to make him work as a starter. If there's one thing Dallas knows how to do, it's to have a "token" starter in their rotation. Seems like they do that a lot, including last season, even in the playoffs. 

And, I'm not AS convinced you are that the lineup you're concerned about won't work. I'm a little wary, but I got over it once I thought about it for a few days.

To be clear, I’m not convinced it won’t work, just leery of going away from something that we know works.  

There are a few things that give me some hope. The fact that DJJ played less than 20 minutes a game during the post TDL stretch when the defense became dominate.  Green was our other POA defender but he struggled in that area. I do think the Marshall/Grimes combo is better defensively than DJJ/Green combo. As good of a defender DJJ was, he had one of the worst net ratings of rotational players on the team during the regular season. In fact it seems to be a recent trend that Mavs get rid of the players with worst net ratings (Williams, Green, THJ and DJJ).

One last crazy stat. THJ played the second most total minutes on the team. He wasn’t as bad as folks make him out to be (especially in the first half of season) but we are likely going to improve on a lot of those minutes.

[DanSchwartzgan]

There are a few things that give me some hope. The fact that DJJ played less than 20 minutes a game during the post TDL stretch when the defense became dominate.   

I do think the Marshall/Grimes combo is better defensively than DJJ/Green combo.

As good of a defender DJJ was, he had one of the worst net ratings of rotational players on the team during the regular season. In fact it seems to be a recent trend that Mavs get rid of the players with worst net ratings (Williams, Green, THJ and DJJ).

One last crazy stat. THJ played the second most total minutes on the team. He wasn’t as bad as folks make him out to be (especially in the first half of season) but we are likely going to improve on a lot of those minutes.

I had noticed the THJ minutes before and had to do a double-take.  The team was a little worse offensively (-0.6) and a lot worse defensively (+5.3) when THJ was playing those minutes (this is 82games.com's per 48 methodology).  The interesting thing is Golden State was even worse defensively (+7.2) when Klay played.  

A couple of things in Klay's favor...people talk about the gravity of great shooting, but the team's EFG% was actually worse when THJ was on the floor by almost a percentage point.  GSW's EFG% was 1.4 percentage points better with Klay on the floor.  Also, Klay outproduced his positional opponent as measured by positional PER where THJ was worse than his direct opponent.  Post the all-star game, Klay's numbers went way up.  His scoring and efficiency improved and his +/- went from -1.5 to +3.5.  This is also the point where his minutes decreased to 28 per game and he came off the bench about half of these games.  It is hard to know if his increased effectiveness as a result of coming off the bench some or just being further away from his last injury.  His offensive game will seem somewhere similar to THJ's as both get up a shot about every two minutes.  Klay shot a bit more often off the bench than he did as a starter.

I personally think the team would be better with Klay off the bench.  It is easier to do that here than it was in GSW, but it still won't be easy to swallow.  It would be better if Klay came to that conclusion and volunteered for the bench role.  Instead, I suspect it will be one of those things where either Klay or Kyrie will sub out pretty early.  One of the reasons we probably need to start Lively is to better protect the three stars.  I can't imagine Klay starting all three years of his new contract. 

If you like numbers like this, you'll be encouraged by the Naji Marshall addition.  The Pelicans were better offensively by 2.5 points and defensively by 4.5 points when he was in the game.  As you might imagine, DJJ helped the Dallas D by 2.3 points, but you give it up on the offensive side by 2.6 points.

Green was helpful to the offense (+1.7), but the D gave up 8.6 more points per 48 when he was on the floor.  Grimes was just the opposite in NY last season.  He hurt the offense by 7.6 points and helped the D by 3.6 points.  23/24 was a down year for both Green and Grimes.  I'm not convinced Grimes will be better than Green, but we know with certainty that the money is $8mm better and without that spread, you either don't get Klay or you don't have the NT MLE to pay Marshall.

[Chicagojk]

That why I’ve been so adamant about a hole at PG. There’s no way the Mavs think it’s sustainable playing Luka 37.5 mpg again next year. Kyrie 35.0. 

Luka his rookie year played 32.2. I don’t think that’s realistic either but getting it down to 33-34 feels like a good target (he averaged 33.6 his second year and 34.3 his 3rd). 

Kryie was actually well below where he’s been the last 5 years but he’s getting older and has missed several games.

Ideally, the Mavs have the depth to get Luka closer to 34mpg and Kyrie 32. It makes a big difference over an 82 game season and then deep playoff runs, that they now have to anticipate and plan for. If/When Exum, Luka, Kyrie are out there’s no PG to fill the hole and those 3 missed 63 games last year. 

In a perfect world this his how I see the 10-man regular season rotation when everyone is healthy:

Luka 34 | Exum 14
Kyrie 32 | Hardy 16
Klay 28 | Grimes 20
PJW 28 | Naji 20
Lively 28 | Gafford 20

Maxi being the 11th guy that can provide a specialist/5-out Center role over Gafford, if needed. Lowry/DSJ/Dinwidde being the emergency 3rd PG or sliding Exum to that role. Then you have Omax getting developmental minutes when PJ or Naji are out. Powell filling in when Lively/Gafford are out. Morris being the locker room guy that holds it all together.

I think this is my favorite minute breakdown. For early in the season if this is our roster.  It allows some to make cases that they should receive minutes.  Mavs can start maxi slow to begin the season and slowly ramp his minutes for the right matchups.  I wonder if Mavs agree or if they are looking for a backcourt upgrade.

Do you think Grimes and or Marshall can help initiating offense at times? This could also help with our current lineup if Luka or Kyrie is out. Otherwise things get dicey quick.

[Jason Terry]

Maybe a reduced workload could help….especially in the first half of the season.  May be why Dallas could be exploring guards.  Either in case of emergency or them questioning if they have someone on their roster who can help us win if Luka is at 32 minutes and Kyrie 30 minutes on a random middle of the week game early in the season.

To me the workload is the #1 problem for this franchise after the playoff run. 

Luka did not look right at any point in the playoffs. We could achieve far greater offensive and defensive improvement in the playoffs by fixing this problem. 

One part to this is lowering his minutes (and Kyrie). It’s similar to the problem Denver has with Jokic. Can we just break even in the non-Luka minutes? Being able to lower Luka’s minutes to 34-35ish instead of top 5 in the league would make a big difference 

Our problem becomes even bigger next year if we make the right changes around the edge with our offensive system. Last season we added the fast pace fast break element and had great success. If we continue with that but add more ball movement and player movement, then it makes it even harder for Luka to play the absurd level of minutes. 

Effort on defense is related to this as well. In the PLAYOFFS WE HAD A PLAYER WHO WOULD LITERALLY TAKE WHOLE HALVES OFF FROM PLAYING DEFENSE. We constantly hear the line about “funnel everyone to the bigs, it’s a strategy”. To me this is just a media talking point the organization uses to explain away why Luka forces us to have our entire defense revolve around his inability to perform in his minutes. It’s a lie that he can’t do it as we saw him turn it on for stretches in the playoffs. He doesn’t have the stamina/health

The fix would need to be someone who can dribble and create offense for themselves and others………The player could be a legit guard who does the same thing Luka/Kai do and we have a 3 man rotation of 34/34/28 mpg………………..or my favorite way would be to get a wing who can do these things so there’s less of a minutes problem and we have a well rounded team. It’s why Avdija made so much sense. If we got a 3 level scoring two way wing like that it would solve most of our problems.