2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[Smitty]

Sorry, but I think you missed my whole point. 

I never remotely said anything at all about a desire to "be right." I even said "I hope I'm wrong" and "I've come around on this." 

I'm worried that the superior style will win the series. If it's NOT the superior style, I'll be the happiest fan here. And, to my mind, Luka and Kyrie are so superior as PLAYERS, compared to Tatum and Brown, that the ONLY reason Boston is favored is that basketball people think their style is superior. Again, I sure hope the Mavs' approach wins out, and I've even stuck with my prediction. I don't know how much clearer I could be. 

Just musing on what's worrying me, as a Mavs fan, ahead of the NBA finals.

I think it was the rooting against yourself part that made my reply start with “not about being right”. It wasn’t a shot at you or anything. You’re the loudest voice here and your desire for 5-out has long been established. I can tell that it’s an internal battle for you is all.

[Branduil]

The last word from me on this series, prior to game 1, is this:

I find myself in the uncomfortable position of rooting against myself, in a way. I LOVE 5-out basketball, and if it were up to me, that's the way my favorite team would play. I think Carlisle's spread pick and roll system that was built around Luka and utilized by Kidd to get to the WCF two years ago was a ton of fun to watch, and I just can't imagine a better way to get Luka into space, where he is essentially unguardable. For years, some of the more frequent contributors pushed back against that fetish, claiming that it was too limiting in other ways, most notably defense and rebounding. I never felt like the play style was the problem, just the defensive system and lack of athletes to implement it. I say that with complete understanding that getting players who can play tough, hard-nosed defense AND thrive in a 5-out, everyone qualified to work in space offense is a tall order.

...except, the Celtics seem to have done it. 

You guys (many of you) got what you've been screaming for these past 5 years: BIGS. Now, I think Lively has a chance to be a super well-rounded, versatile, switchable guy, and I even think if he can get there soon enough, he'll be able to maintain that skillset for 5-7 years, before ending up kind of like Brooke Lopez when he starts to slow down a little. This is certainly a player I would've wanted, even back then. But this idea of two of them, and the way they're implemented into the flow of the game on both ends...hard rolling every time, drop coverage, crashing the offensive glass rather than prioritizing transition defense, etc, etc, etc...this is the style I feel like many Mavs fans have been wanting. 

And, to be fully transparent, I've kind of come around on it. It IS fun to watch your team overtly outmuscle the opponent in the paint. It IS exhilarating to see dunk after dunk after dunk (though I was even more exhilarated when Luka used to be able to walk into the paint for a layup anytime he wanted because the opponent's bigs weren't there). Those guys DO set better screens. It HAS worked, up to this point. 

However, just when I start letting go of the 5-out dream, along comes Boston. They have assembled one of the best 5-out rosters ever, imho. Their entire top 8 are qualified high-volume catch and shoot guys from deep, so you can't really double anyone (I forsee a ton of Luka and Kyrie guarding someone 1-on-1 in space) and like 6 of those 8 can handle well enough to exploit the defense off the dribble anytime they force that defense into rotation. Seriously, they play the style well. The only thing they're missing is a guy like Luka, SGA, etc, but the system is so effective that Tatum kind of looks like that type if you squint. Jesus, I can't even imagine what Luka would do on that team if he had the ball. AND, they play pretty great defense, too. 

I desperately want the Mavs to win this, and so I'm desperately hoping Gafford doesn't get played off the floor. I'm hoping he and Lively can punish them on the offensive glass, and the Mavs can own the paint as they have through most of the postseason. If that happens, I'll let the dream die completely. 

But, if the series plays out the way more and more experts seem to think it will, I won't be upset just at the Mavs' loss, but also for the decision to go away from that play style. The optimist in me is starting to enjoy the advantages this Dallas team has carved out. The pessimist in me doesn't think owning the glass will necessarily matter all that much in this series, because Boston will be raining threes and eventually, when Dallas adjusts, they'll have to concede the paint, too, in attempt to deny the three pointers (this is essentially what happened against GS two years ago, though in a different way). The pessimist in me thinks Boston might be able to get shots of far superior quality to the Mavs pretty frequently in this series. 

I'm still listening to the optimistic side more than the pessimistic, mostly because of Luka and Kyrie, but also because there's something about this team that seems special to me. So, I'm sticking with my prediction of the Mavs in 6. 

...but, I don't mind admitting that I'm getting pretty worried. I feel like PJ Washington and DJJ both have to shoot over 40% from distance in this series for the Mavs to keep up. I hope I'm wrong, or that they can.

The ultimate version of this team will be unlocked when Lively starts hitting threes, and they can play 5-out AND 1-in, 4-out on ANY possession, while still protecting the rim on defense.

[KillerLeft]

I think it was the rooting against yourself part that made my reply start with “not about being right”. It wasn’t a shot at you or anything. You’re the loudest voice here and your desire for 5-out has long been established. I can tell that it’s an internal battle for you is all.

Oh, sorry. I took your comment the wrong way. 

Yeah, I'd much rather the Mavs win than "be right." But, it's not just about the debate for me. I actually prefer the merits of their style, though not as much as I would've a few months back. Like I said, I've enjoyed this new style more than I used to, and I'm grateful the dunker spot is empty when they do the 1-5 ball screen thing. 

Part of my worry in this series is that when (not if, but when) they have to switch to Washington or even Jones as screeners, the center will be in the dunker spot, rather than on the bench in favor of Kleber. That's an assumption on my part, because we know Kidd isn't afraid to go with that Kleber/Washington lineup during important moments. I feel like 70% of Mavs fans will lose their minds if he does that, but I believe it's likely to be the right choice. 

And, I agree that Gafford/Lively/Kleber provides OPTIONS. I just kind of wish the SECOND option was the Kleber way so that the team was more accustomed to playing that way when they need to, but then again, a large part of why we haven't seen it lately is obviously because he has been injured. 

I'm just nervous, man. This week of sitting in our own anxiety was a borderline cruel trick by the NBA.

[KillerLeft]

The ultimate version of this team will be unlocked when Lively starts hitting threes, and they can play 5-out AND 1-in, 4-out on ANY possession, while still protecting the rim on defense.

hahaha, the kid has passed every test thrown at him all season. Maybe he'll start putting them up in this series.

[Smitty]

Oh, sorry. I took your comment the wrong way. 

Yeah, I'd much rather the Mavs win than "be right." But, it's not just about the debate for me. I actually prefer the merits of their style, though not as much as I would've a few months back. Like I said, I've enjoyed this new style more than I used to, and I'm grateful the dunker spot is empty when they do the 1-5 ball screen thing. 

Part of my worry in this series is that when (not if, but when) they have to switch to Washington or even Jones as screeners, the center will be in the dunker spot, rather than on the bench in favor of Kleber. That's an assumption on my part, because we know Kidd isn't afraid to go with that Kleber/Washington lineup during important moments. I feel like 70% of Mavs fans will lose their minds if he does that, but I believe it's likely to be the right choice. 

And, I agree that Gafford/Lively/Kleber provides OPTIONS. I just kind of wish the SECOND option was the Kleber way so that the team was more accustomed to playing that way when they need to, but then again, a large part of why we haven't seen it lately is obviously because he has been injured. 

I'm just nervous, man. This week of sitting in our own anxiety was a borderline cruel trick by the NBA.

We’re on the same page with all of that. Gafford is the weakest link against 5-out Boston. No doubt about it. I think I even replied to one of your previous post a few days ago that Maxi will be the X-factor this series and that Mavs fans are going to freak out.

I’ve since listened to Jason Timpf and he highlighted a lot of what we talked about the last few days. The good thing about Luka being LUKA is he can get to what he wants to get to. If they want to put Tatum on Lively I don’t see him abandoning the 1-5 screen. He’s not scared of Tatum of Brown or any of their All-Defensive guys. In fact, he might call him up and try and punish him often. He’s a dawg!

But either way there’s more than one action, one screen, to get to what you want on offense. I’m not even a little worried about that side of the ball.

[fifteenth]

This week off has given us some great basketball talk, including tonight's posts.

That video a few weeks ago that showed Lively hitting threes got me thinking about being able switch styles based on opponent as well. I'm excited for next season even while enjoying the heck out of this run. Not sure I've experienced exactly that before.

[audiosway]

The last word from me on this series, prior to game 1, is this:


However, just when I start letting go of the 5-out dream, along comes Boston. They have assembled one of the best 5-out rosters ever, imho. 

This is my last word on this series before game 1 also. I was coming hear to say that and there you are.  

Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about the 5 out system that Rick had running there in Dallas and how Kidd went away from it. I think I know why. I think it's the reason that the Indiana series was closer than Boston probably would have liked.

The problem is that you can't play the level of defense that's needed to win when it gets tight. Stops are harder to come by. It does spread the floor and leave lanes open to the rim.

I think Dallas will be smart to play like they have been. You are correct in saying that Boston has the best 5 out roster we've seen. The problem is the system.

What makes 5 out work for Boston in the regular season and look so incredible from an analytic standpoint is that they drive the lane due to all of that space and it gets those guys a few easy buckets which gets them hitting the 3s. Boston has pulled away from teams late in the 3rd or early in the 4th all year. That's when they start feeling the shots falling and hitting the 3s.

The big con is that it just doesn't allow much movement in 5 out and it tends to stagnate a lot. Everyone is already spread, so, outside of a pick where will the movement come from? They end up running a ton of iso which works great in the regular season against bad teams but becomes more difficult when the playoffs come and teams get more physical and the competition level is much higher. Boston and Dallas were both in the top 3 this year for iso play. However, Dallas runs it slightly different where they are running off of a P&R most of the time which leaves open shooters to pass out to as the defense collapses. Dallas also incorporates a good bit of cutting as well similar to Denver.

That's why when Boston played a team like OKC, Minnesota, Denver, etc it was tougher for them to get going. They weren't that great against WC teams above .500. In fact, they lost both games to Denver. On offense Denver lives out of the P&R and getting guys running downhill kicking out to open shooters. Jokic also is able to find open shooters the way Luka is in creating opportunities through passing.

Another thing with Boston is that they struggle defending the P&R. Physical teams are a problem for Boston. They are also easy to get rebounds on and get behind the defense in transition which Ky and Luka love to do. Also, if KP isn't 100% healthy (and I don't think he is) it's going to open up the paint for Dallas to drive. And they will drive at will.

I think these things I pointed out are the same reason Rick had trouble getting out of the first round in the West after winning the title. They won the title as a P&R heavy physical team with Dirk, Jet, and Kidd driving the paint kicking out to open shooters. They played physical defense and made sure nothing was easy. It wasn't until later that he went to more of the D'antoni 5 out style of play. He almost got out of the first round a couple of times but could never get over the hump.

The East is easier since the bottom half of the playoff field wouldn't even be in the playoffs in the WC.

It's a great system in the regular season to get easy wins but when you are up against opponents that make your shots tough it gets difficult to run. When you are winded from playing against a physical team shots start falling flat. That and you are now getting heavily contested shots while the other team is getting lobs, put backs, and layups.

I am not saying it will be an easy series. It will be right up there with the OKC series I believe. Dallas wins in 6 in my book. But, I don't think the 5 out as a system can win it all. Not against a talented and physical team. Same reason why D'Antoni could never get it done. When you get into the playoffs it becomes all about hard fouls, getting stops, and easier buckets. Teams can use all of their energy because they don't have 80 games left.

Side note: A perfect reason as to why I'm not an analytics guy. WCF series against Minnesota +/- for Luka.
He was ON the floor for 201 minutes and the team had a 114.7 offensive rating.
When he was OFF the floor for 39 minutes the team had a 125 offensive rating.

Analytics say the team was better with Luka OFF the floor. That's just one more reason why I think this series is a mental set up for Boston.

[SleepingHero]

This week off has given us some great basketball talk, including tonight's posts.

That video a few weeks ago that showed Lively hitting threes got me thinking about being able switch styles based on opponent as well. I'm excited for next season even while enjoying the heck out of this run. Not sure I've experienced exactly that before.

Speaking of Lively hitting 3s...

This was him after practice today. As the tweet says, sky's the limit for real. 

https://twitter.com/pandahank41/status/1...0592223307

[fifteenth]

JJ and LeBron were talking about the same things as you guys...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4AJamTywdsY

[KillerLeft]

And now, please enjoy some of the best BAD basketball talk (or should I say screaming) of all time:

https://youtu.be/QF-lgRQipdw?si=P9_K3goLAn2byPQ_

[audiosway]

JJ and LeBron were talking about the same things as you guys...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4AJamTywdsY

Very interesting. It definitely does point to what I was saying where Boston is vulnerable on the isos they take. But, Boston is for sure a different beast than Dallas has faced so far. For the C's to do what they want though KP has to be healthy. I just don't think he is. That makes it even more interesting.

[audiosway]

And now, please enjoy some of the best BAD basketball talk (or should I say screaming) of all time:

https://youtu.be/QF-lgRQipdw?si=P9_K3goLAn2byPQ_

ok. I went back and realized that they meant Blitz and not like a corner trap. Luka is the most blitzed player in the NBA. But, it just gets the action started faster and Luka will pass to the open player. They would need to not show but then blitz. The problem is that Boston doesn't blitz anyone. They are the lowest in the NBA for blitzing. They are a switching team. Luka is licking his chops over it.

Besides my misunderstanding what they meant...that was some bad bbiq going on in there and I'm not the smartest guy with bbiq.

[OBX Maverick]

Very interesting. It definitely does point to what I was saying where Boston is vulnerable on the isos they take. But, Boston is for sure a different beast than Dallas has faced so far. For the C's to do what they want though KP has to be healthy. I just don't think he is. That makes it even more interesting.

Yeah, that was a great analysis of what Dallas has done so far this playoffs and what they will have to do to combat Boston’s five out. However, as much as I love Maxi, we certainly can’t afford to abandon our traditional centers (more specifically Gafford as he is the one most likely to sit) because of the interior advantage they give us, specifically rebounding and on the offensive end. I think this series could boil down to offense and whether we can punish Boston enough inside with our bigs to offset what Boston can do to us from the perimeter. Also can we scramble enough to effectively close out on open shooters off picks and double teams? You know Boston will be draining threes, and their collective team shooting might win them a couple games by itself no matter what we do defensively. 

Also, I agree about KP.  He didn’t exactly give a glowing endorsement about his health during his press conference, and we know his injury history all too well. I don’t wish ill health on him, but it’s just the reality. Since his knee injury, I think I read he’s only averaging 56 games per year (or something close to that).

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I think one of the keys in the Finals will be for Luka and Kyrie to get Jrue and White in foul trouble. If they can get them in foul trouble, then having them foul them out soon after too.

That can work both ways. Luka and Kyrie aren't prone to not fouling, especially Luka who thinks he never commits a foul, lol.

[Winter]

Speaking of Lively hitting 3s...

This was him after practice today. As the tweet says, sky's the limit for real. 

https://twitter.com/pandahank41/status/1...0592223307

His form just looks great to me. I would bet anything he's shooting these shots next season.

[Chicagojk]

We are here. Lets rock.

Early prediction: Today will be a very unproductive day of work for me.

[Lukedoncic]

I’m saying it right now; if we go all the way this year, I promise to get that iconic picture of Kyrie and Luka, arms on each other’s shoulders, tattooed on me. Location TBD.

[BigDirk41]

Speaking of Lively hitting 3s...

This was him after practice today. As the tweet says, sky's the limit for real. 

https://twitter.com/pandahank41/status/1...0592223307

Lively can definitely hit 3s, but I saw a interview earlier this season where he said Kidd said he's not allowed to shoot them in game. Maybe they will allow him to next season.

[fifteenth]

Lively can definitely hit 3s, but I saw a interview earlier this season where he said Kidd said he's not allowed to shoot them in game. Maybe they will allow him to next season.

I think there has to be a scheme installed that includes DL hitting threes before he starts taking them. 

Total guess here, of course, but I think a 5-out scheme that includes DL hitting threes could be in Kidd's master plan, but that the time wasn't really right for implementing it this season. DL is a rookie, he's had plenty to learn and work on, scheme wise, this season, and there hasn't been enough time post trade to get too fancy this season. They needed to master the schemes that they put in place and not complicate things too much.  I think this playoff run is an amazing and wonderful case of being ahead of schedule. 

I hesitate to say all that just because I know, once you get to the finals, getting back is never a given. My thinking is so impacted by 2006. But what's different about this group is that I don't think they've peaked. The 2006 and 2007 teams were the peak for that group. 

Anyway, I predict DLive threes and some 5-out mixed in next season.

[fifteenth]

It’s not about being right. It’s about winning. Luka likes the rim rolling bigs. He even made Powell look good for a while. I think it’s pretty incredible that Luka/Kidd have gotten two completely different teams to the WCF’s in 3 years and one of them to the finals. The great thing about this team is that they can play multiple ways because of Gafford-Lively-Maxi. The C’s can only play 5-out.

Alley Oop dunks by team in the Playoffs:

Mavs- 54
Nuggets- 9
Thunder- 8
Cavs- 7
Wolves- 6
Celtics- 6
Clippers- 5
Pacers- 5
Knicks- 3
Magic- 3
Lakers- 3
Heat- 3
Pelicans- 1
76ers- 0
Bucks- 0
Suns- 0

The league out oop'd the Mavs 59 to 54