GAME 5 Playoffs 2024: Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (2-2)

[Scott41theMavs]

Wasn't he injured late in the season? Seems like he's never been fully right since the injury layoff.

So is it lingering injury, or some psychological fear of further injury? He probably just needs a nice offseason rest. 

Exum was absolutely one of my five favorite Mavs during the regular season, and probably one of the five most important Mavs. Lots of folks seemingly willing to throw him into the dumpster, but they're forgetting his efficiency and defensive/winning/chemistry impact in the regular season. 

He's an important bench piece for next year at a bargain price.

[mvossman]

Absolutely!

It's tough, because SGA is so quick and fast that it helps to have someone like Green on him to slow the Thunder down in transition. But yes, in the half court, no matter how "well" Green plays, defensively, even when he doesn't get beat or fall for any of the moves/counter moves AT ALL and the possession ends with a GREAT contest from Green, it doesn't seem to matter. SGA just drains the shot as if he's not there. Mavs2021 has been mentioning this often, comparing Green's defense to Dwight Powell's, in that it's almost always sound but too often ineffective. I'm starting to feel the same way, at least in this matchup. 

DJJ is about perfect to defend SGA, but even PJ, who you'd think wouldn't be quick enough, bothers him way, way more than Green does. I'm finding that more and more fascinating as the series goes on. 

And yet Green does have some obvious utility with his energy. He's the most likely on the team to sneak up as a help defender and swipe the ball away. He's the most likely to get to a loose ball. He's the most consistent in terms of playing at top speed through all of his minutes (though not long minutes, relatively)...I'm not sure what it all means, because I think our collective belief in him around here was built on the idea that he is to be a great defender, and as I sit here today, I just don't think he'll ever be that, exactly. And now that his catch and shoot game has completely abandoned him (temporary, I hope), I don't know what to think. He was becoming one of the better catch and shoot guys on the team, but right now the Thunder are treating him like Giddey, and they're right to do so. 

Part of me thinks that more minutes would help him get into some sort of rhythm, but the other part wonders if he contributes enough to warrant someone else's minutes decreasing. All of this within the context of that extension (that seemed like a bargain when he signed it) and I'm not sure where to go from here.

Its interesting because our biggest complaints with him offensively was that he needed to pull the trigger more.  He had the highest 3 point attempts per 36 of his career this season at 4.5.  For the playoffs he has been at nearly 7.  I wonder if his more frequent shooting is impacting his efficiency.  Or maybe this was one bad game.  He was shooting over 40% in this series before last nights game.  

As for minutes, I thought there were signs of life in Exum the last couple of games and would like to give him another run.  Other than that I would probably rather see Green get minutes over Timmy or Hardy.

[KillerLeft]

He was shooting over 40% in this series before last nights game.  

From 3??? Seriously?? My goodness, it certainly didn't feel like that. Interesting.

[The Jom]

…

Saw where OKC's coach commented on how he felt their offense was "positive" and that they just missed on open shots. Not sure if he really feels that way or if he's just whistling in the dark to keep his team from panicking before Game 6.

Whistling in the dark! Great line! And yeah, Thunder scoring this series:

Game 1: 117
Game 2: 110
Game 3: 101
Game 4: 100
Game 5: 92

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

My semi-annual reminder that our beloved Dorian Finney-Smith was the same age, 23, in his Rookie Season as our much maligned Josh Green is now. I remember at one time it was that Josh would never be a legit 3 point shooter. And he’s 40% and 38.5 last two years. Settle down people. Josh’s best basketball is still ahead of him. He’s still probably 4-5 years away from his prime.

[Winter]

My semi-annual reminder that our beloved Dorian Finney-Smith was the same age, 23, in his Rookie Season as our much maligned Josh Green is now. I remember at one time it was that Josh would never be a legit 3 point shooter. And he’s 40% and 38.5 last two years. Settle down people. Josh’s best basketball is still ahead of him. He’s still probably 4-5 years away from his prime.

If I read you right, you're comparing a rookie DFS to a Josh Green who has been playing in the NBA for 4 years without comparable movement. I'm not entirely sure that's worth remembering.

Josh Green is a decent rotation player, and I do expect he will be better in 4-5 years, but if his trend line is constant he'll only be a slightly better rotation player.

[The Jom]

If I read you right, you're comparing a rookie DFS to a Josh Green who has been playing in the NBA for 4 years without comparable movement. I'm not entirely sure that's worth remembering.

Josh Green is a decent rotation player, and I do expect he will be better in 4-5 years, but if his trend line is constant he'll only be a slightly better rotation player.

Over the course of those years, Josh has dramatically improved his 3-point shooting and ability to defend without fouling. If playing ineffective D against Shai is his crime, I submit it’s a misdemeanor, not a felony.

[Winter]

Over the course of those years, Josh has dramatically improved his 3-point shooting and ability to defend without fouling. If playing ineffective D against Shai is his crime, I submit it’s a misdemeanor, not a felony.

Well that's not really true is it? He hasn't drastically improved his 3-point shot. It's a little worse this year statistically than last. But I think maybe that's to be expected since there's a slightly higher volume this year. Most of his stats are about the same as last year, some slightly worse than last year. And that's probably who he is going forward.

Josh is fine, really, and those aren't bad numbers. He's a perfectly decent rotation player even if he's inconsistent. But I submit to you the Josh Green fan club suffers from unrealistic expectations in my opinion. I personally think he gets talked about in a way that makes it seem he has more value than he actually has. His 3-point percentage gets talked about a lot, but he's not an eager scorer in any other way outside of the corner 3 (where he is mostly relegated in this offense). Personally, I like his energy and his ability to close out on perimeter players, and of course his corner 3 percentage. He's a good guy and seems hard working, but I don't suspect his peak stats will be dramatically different from his current numbers.

He has value, but my guess is that he may get traded for a more veteran offensive player (or playmaker). I suspect what peak he has will most likely be with another team.

[KillerLeft]

Over the course of those years, Josh has dramatically improved his 3-point shooting and ability to defend without fouling. If playing ineffective D against Shai is his crime, I submit it’s a misdemeanor, not a felony.

This is true, and yet…there’s just something about him that always leaves me wanting. I can’t really explain it.

[The Jom]

Me: “Over the course of those years, Josh has dramatically improved his 3-point shot.”

You: “Well that’s not really true is it?”

Josh 3P% by year (season ending)
21: 16.0%
22: 35.9%
23: 40.2%
24: 38.5%

Call it what you want.

[SleepingHero]

My semi-annual reminder that our beloved Dorian Finney-Smith was the same age, 23, in his Rookie Season as our much maligned Josh Green is now. I remember at one time it was that Josh would never be a legit 3 point shooter. And he’s 40% and 38.5 last two years. Settle down people. Josh’s best basketball is still ahead of him. He’s still probably 4-5 years away from his prime.

I love me some Green. He's largely stagnated this last year. 23 is very very young though. Player improvement is rarely, if ever, a linear one. Maybe Green takes another step. 

Either way what he is right now, today, is still a very productive member of the team. He's not the best defender. He's not the best shooter. He's not the best passer. But he does bring all of those things and does them at an okay rate. 

I don't want to trade Josh unless it's for a clear, bonafide upgrade.

[SleepingHero]

This is true, and yet…there’s just something about him that always leaves me wanting. I can’t really explain it.

He's extremely passive. He plays akin to a cook who has the ability to create these delicious Michelin star meals but prefers to make kraft mac n cheese. Now don't get me wrong, kraft mac n cheese is delicious and this cook makes it really well. But you see this very talented dude who has the ability to be a great cook resign himself to making a relatively basic dish because of some mental block or what have you. It's pretty unsatisfying....

Ok that isn't the best analogy. I tried. I love Josh. But his unwillingness to assert himself in games drives me a bit insane. There was a moment in game 5 where the Mavs were running their post up play for Luka on the wing and Josh had to throw an entry pass. The Thunder knew it was coming and his defender (I think it was Wallace) just sags off of Josh totally and doubles Luka. Josh was WIDE open for a 3. He was WIDE open to drive. He instead forces the pass to Luka because that was the designed play. It was a very hard pass that was nearly stolen. Josh is a near 40% 3pt shooter. The Thunder openly disrespected him by literally leaving him on the wing and giving him an open lane and Josh just let it happen.

That moment is a microcosm of Greens' issue. There was a point last year where that was a drive that leads to a dunk or dish. Heck maybe even a 3. 

Whatever it's not worth chastising the dude after a win and he is no where close to being the main impact guy for the Mavs. But if he could play with the same confidence as PJ or DJJ, Josh would be a 16ppg 2-way monster. Sad he can't seem to realize that.

[The Jom]

Same confidence as PJ (25) or DJJ (27)? Josh (23) may get there before either of them did.

[KillerLeft]

Me: “Over the course of those years, Josh has dramatically improved his 3-point shot.”

You: “Well that’s not really true is it?”

Josh 3P% by year (season ending)
21: 16.0%
22: 35.9%
23: 40.2%
24: 38.5%

Call it what you want.

Huh? I know this isn’t in response to me, because the first thing I wrote was “this is true.”

[KillerLeft]

This is true, and yet…there’s just something about him that always leaves me wanting. I can’t really explain it.

See?

[KillerLeft]

Well that's not really true is it? He hasn't drastically improved his 3-point shot. It's a little worse this year statistically than last. But I think maybe that's to be expected since there's a slightly higher volume this year. Most of his stats are about the same as last year, some slightly worse than last year. And that's probably who he is going forward.

Josh is fine, really, and those aren't bad numbers. He's a perfectly decent rotation player even if he's inconsistent. But I submit to you the Josh Green fan club suffers from unrealistic expectations in my opinion. I personally think he gets talked about in a way that makes it seem he has more value than he actually has. His 3-point percentage gets talked about a lot, but he's not an eager scorer in any other way outside of the corner 3 (where he is mostly relegated in this offense). Personally, I like his energy and his ability to close out on perimeter players, and of course his corner 3 percentage. He's a good guy and seems hard working, but I don't suspect his peak stats will be dramatically different from his current numbers.

He has value, but my guess is that he may get traded for a more veteran offensive player (or playmaker). I suspect what peak he has will most likely be with another team.

Oh, I see. Sorry, Jom, carry on!

[mvossman]

If I read you right, you're comparing a rookie DFS to a Josh Green who has been playing in the NBA for 4 years without comparable movement. I'm not entirely sure that's worth remembering.

Josh Green is a decent rotation player, and I do expect he will be better in 4-5 years, but if his trend line is constant he'll only be a slightly better rotation player.

Are you sure its not comparable movement?  Actually Josh improved significantly more across his first three seasons than Dorian did.

DFS points/gm:  4.3  5.9  7.5
Josh points/gm: 2.6  4.8  9.1

DFS TS%:  49  48  53
Josh TS%: 49  58  65

DFS took his big step in his 4th season at age 26.  Josh took a small step back in his forth season at age 23.  There is still plenty of room for growth.  Dorian was always the better defender.  I had hopes that Josh would take a bigger jump defensively at some point, but it hasn't happened yet.  As someone mentioned above, growth is not linear as both these players have shown, and being so young there is reason to hope Josh has another jump in him before he peaks.

[Winter]

Are you sure its not comparable movement?  Actually Josh improved significantly more across his first three seasons than Dorian did.

DFS points/gm:  4.3  5.9  7.5
Josh points/gm: 2.6  4.8  9.1

DFS TS%:  49  48  53
Josh TS%: 49  58  65

DFS took his big step in his 4th season at age 26.  Josh took a small step back in his forth season at age 23.  There is still plenty of room for growth.  Dorian was always the better defender.  I had hopes that Josh would take a bigger jump defensively at some point, but it hasn't happened yet.  As someone mentioned above, growth is not linear as both these players have shown, and being so young there is reason to hope Josh has another jump in him before he peaks.

I just think these are pretty much the same comments that are posted about Josh every week for the last two years. I just don't see anything "dramatic" and most of it feels like it's wishful thinking.

[michaeltex]

I think Green is has been somewhat static the last two years, but that's not a bad thing. He continues to bring energy and hustle whenever he's on the court. Defense may not be ALL NBA, but you can't criticize the effort. His shooting % has improved, but I agree he doesn't always read the situation properly and assert himself when necessary.

In his defense, he's a role player on a team that has had a LOT of roster massage the last season and a half. Look at the roster just before the 2023 TDL and look at it today. Luka, Josh, DP and THJ are all that's left and DP rarely sees the floor now while THJ may be wearing out his welcome (despite the positive support from Kyrie). Josh isn't a wave maker, so he's content to keep doing Josh and try to fit in with the changing team dynamics. He doesn't necessarily shine most nights, but he's brings a nice consistency as this team grows together.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think Green is has been somewhat static the last two years, but that's not a bad thing. He continues to bring energy and hustle whenever he's on the court. Defense may not be ALL NBA, but you can't criticize the effort. His shooting % has improved, but I agree he doesn't always read the situation properly and assert himself when necessary.

In his defense, he's a role player on a team that has had a LOT of roster massage the last season and a half. Look at the roster just before the 2023 TDL and look at it today. Luka, Josh, DP and THJ are all that's left and DP rarely sees the floor now while THJ may be wearing out his welcome (despite the positive support from Kyrie). Josh isn't a wave maker, so he's content to keep doing Josh and try to fit in with the changing team dynamics. He doesn't necessarily shine most nights, but he's brings a nice consistency as this team grows together.

None of this is wrong - *but* the issue is they paid the man way too much.

Also, you forgot Maxi.