TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[Dundalis]

Watching Green and Hardy tonight makes that trade look even more like an unnecessary panic move.  There was an obvious need for some upgrades.  We were starting 4 subpar defenders which will never work long term.  Timmy needs to go and Dinwiddie needed to either move to his proper position as 6th man or go.  But Green is clearly turning into that legit 2 way starter this team desperately needed, and Hardy is looking like he is going to be a high level 6th man in a season or two.  They didn't really need a superstar, just one or two more quality starters that can play defense, and they were going to have the assets in the offseason to potentially get it.

Now the roster seems even more lopsided.  I'm not sure you can put a top 10 defense on the floor with Luka/Kyrie/Wood.  Its a shame and a little surprising to me that we can't get any value out of Wood in the open market.  It will have to be Green and the best defensive big wing we can find, but I don't think it will be enough.

IMO if you can put someone next to Wood that can take care of the opposing teams big, he's passable defensively, because he is pretty decent at weak side help defense in the paint and is quick enough to not be completely terrible on switches and close outs, so you remove the matchup that exposes his biggest defensive weakness. Which is why the lineups with Wood and Kleber together were actually quite good.

[DanSchwartzgan]

But in all seriousnes, I really hope Love is not what they are looking at. They need defenders above everything. He is supposed to be a great locker room guy, but he is very expensive for that role.

Yeah, that is the issue.  Your big rotation is still light with Powell, Maxi and Love.  You’d need another move (THJ for something?).

[omahen]

You’d need another move (THJ for something?).

My prediction is THJ stays and Wood is moved. Or nothing happens. I think THJ just doesn't have value that would make sense for Mavs to move him. I think Mavs will wait until summer and went for another big move with three picks. Shams mentioned this option.

[vfromlmf]

Interesting ...

Powell+Wood+Bertans = $41.3 million

Bogi+Bagley+Noel = $41.2 million

[omahen]

Interesting ...

Powell+Wood+Bertans = $41.3 million

Bogi+Bagley+Noel = $41.2 million

Detroit doesn't really need Wood and they already moved away from him. If they want vets, they prefer Bogi. Also, I don't think Bogi is the right guy next to Luka and Irving. Mavs need a guy who can play both defense and offense, imho.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Interesting ...

Powell+Wood+Bertans = $41.3 million

Bogi+Bagley+Noel = $41.2 million

What is the benefit of swapping Powell for Noel?

Why would Detroit do Bogi/Bagley for Wood/Bertans (unless we are adding draft capital).

[Dundalis]

My immediate reaction was not negativity against the team.  It was negativity against an unnecessary trade that looks more unnecessary the more these two take off.

They were great, I had no friggen clue Green had any of that isolation dribble drive scoring in his bag. Where the hell did that come from and why haven't I seen it before? That being said, Kidd clearly has no interest in giving Hardy any kind of non garbage time role, he couldn't even get minutes with Luka out, it took Dinwiddie and DFS to be gone too. I don't think this performance changes that even unfortunately, even if we didn't trade for Kyrie, Hardy had a breakout 20+ point game a while back too and it made no difference to his game time afterwards.

Green however was always going to get a bigger role as the season went on, but he was hitting some shots off the dribble this game that I have never seen from him, nor did I know he was even capable of. Before this game I projected him purely as a potentially high level 3&D wing who could slash and had some limited ball handling and passing ability. I wanna see whether that was a one off kinda fluke or the offensive creation off the dribble is actually in his bag, though I dunno whether he would have the confidence to try it when Luka and Kyrie are back. But if that is legit in his bag it completely changes his ceiling as a player I think. I just have no idea if it's real.

The more I think about the deal, the more I'm ok with the likelihood of it not working out. I will reserve full judgement until the trade deadline passes any other trades they do or don't make will affect my judgement of the deal to bring in Kyrie. I will say I don't think Green or Hardy's performances change anything that much. Despite how impressive they were, they are such one offs, you cannot have any confidence whatsoever that they can bring that type of performance on any kind of consistent basis which is what we need.

[vfromlmf]

Detroit doesn't really need Wood and they already moved away from him.

Wood is just expiring ... but I wouldn't think a 2-team trade of those players would make sense. Maybe Wood goes to a third team. Dallas would also need to include picks. 

Harris+Korkmaz is $43 million ... Westbrook is $47 million ... Bogi+Bags+Noel is $41 million ... these players are all in rumors

[LukaMVP]

young guys like Hardy and Josh deserve more playing time imho. I'm not expecting them to play so great night in and night out, nor do they need to when Luka and Kyrie suit up. guys need to play more to maintain such superb forms so maybe they can become x-factors deep in the playoffs.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

They were great, I had no friggen clue Green had any of that isolation dribble drive scoring in his bag. Where the hell did that come from and why haven't I seen it before? That being said, Kidd clearly has no interest in giving Hardy any kind of non garbage time role, he couldn't even get minutes with Luka out, it took Dinwiddie and DFS to be gone too. I don't think this performance changes that even unfortunately, even if we didn't trade for Kyrie, Hardy had a breakout 20+ point game a while back too and it made no difference to his game time afterwards.

Green however was always going to get a bigger role as the season went on, but he was hitting some shots off the dribble this game that I have never seen from him, nor did I know he was even capable of. Before this game I projected him purely as a potentially high level 3&D wing who could slash and had some limited ball handling and passing ability. I wanna see whether that was a one off kinda fluke or the offensive creation off the dribble is actually in his bag, though I dunno whether he would have the confidence to try it when Luka and Kyrie are back. But if that is legit in his bag it completely changes his ceiling as a player I think. I just have no idea if it's real.

The more I think about the deal, the more I'm ok with the likelihood of it not working out. I will reserve full judgement until the trade deadline passes any other trades they do or don't make will affect my judgement of the deal to bring in Kyrie. I will say I don't think Green or Hardy's performances change anything that much. Despite how impressive they were, they are such one offs, you cannot have any confidence whatsoever that they can bring that type of performance on any kind of consistent basis which is what we need.

Correct. Both are still young. Last night could be considered a one-off for now. They were great, but at this point, you really can't expect that from them every night, especially against the better teams. They have to mature, and steadily gain confidence.

[KillerLeft]

(players for the current season and expiring contracts in case you have to gun for cap room in the summer).

Yep

[Nowitzki Way]

Its awfully quiet on the trade front now. A little over 48 hours away and its eerily quiet all around the league. I think we're about see some fireworks.

[omahen]

Its awfully quiet on the trade front now. A little over 48 hours away and its eerily quiet all around the league. I think we're about see some fireworks.

As usually, I would expect most of it to happen on the last day.

[mvossman]

I always use a combo to see how good a defender is, because most defensive stats never really paint a whole picture.

For raw stats, Stocks (steals+blocks) is always good to see. A good defender should get a lot of those. 

DPM, Defensive Win Shares, and DRTG I look to see if they all share a similar trend and what percentile that player ranks in each of those advanced stats. 

My absolute favorite though is just what other players shoot when guarded by the guy. Is he holding them to less than 5 percentage points below league average? If yes, and all the other things above tell a similar story, I believe that the guy is a great defender.

Yeah, defense is really tough to gauge with stats.  The boxscore stats are extremely limited.  If I had to pick the best overall, it would be DEPM, which is basically net rating adjusted for noise as much as possible (and there is still a lot of noise) and I generally look at multiple years.  But as you mention, I look at may sources to try to get an overall picture.

The opponent player shooting percentage is a useful stat, but like most of these stats, context has to be taken into account.  Dorian probably didn't have the best opponent player shooting percentage, but he was always in the top 5 regarding guarding the toughest opponent while Luka is getting hidden on poor offensive players.  I also think defense is such a team game that looking at one on one tells only part of the story.

[Chicagojk]

How do club and team options work in buyouts?   For instance, Derrick Rose has a team option next year.  If they bought him out after the deadline will next years money be erased?

Rudy Gay has a player option of a little over 6 million next year (he is probably picking that up, I assume).   So if they approached him after the deadline, would they need to negotiate the money coming to him next year as well?  I guess that would limit any buyout negotiations.

[KillerLeft]

@"DanSchwartzgan", I can honestly see them thinking they can make Powell (expiring), Kleber (keeper, good deal), Love (expiring) and McGee (couldn't move him if they tried) working as a big rotation down the stretch. 

Good opportunity to dump more salary for next year. Love, declined as he has, is still vastly more playable than Bertans, so you'd have TWO bigs who can space the floor, which is only gonna make the Luka/Irving advantage greater. Plus, I bet they'd talk themselves into the idea that Love would help a ton with rebounding, and they might be right. Plus, he and Irving have history at high, winning levels. Plus, he and Cuban are friends. 

I'm literally feeling him even more than Crowder, at this point.

[omahen]

I'm literally feeling him even more than Crowder, at this point.

When I saw Love rumors, I immediately thought Mavs are the ones looking at him. I still don't think that would be a good move. I don't think Mavs should go after cap space next season and if they are so affraid Irving might walk, they should have never traded for him in the first place. If this is such a risk, than they really should go all in and try to win it all this year. Which again I don't see Love as someone who can really help a lot, due to his bad defense.

[Smitty]

@"DanSchwartzgan", I can honestly see them thinking they can make Powell (expiring), Kleber (keeper, good deal), Love (expiring) and McGee (couldn't move him if they tried) working as a big rotation down the stretch. 

Good opportunity to dump more salary for next year. Love, declined as he has, is still vastly more playable than Bertans, so you'd have TWO bigs who can space the floor, which is only gonna make the Luka/Irving advantage greater. Plus, I bet they'd talk themselves into the idea that Love would help a ton with rebounding, and they might be right. Plus, he and Irving have history at high, winning levels. Plus, he and Cuban are friends. 

I'm literally feeling him even more than Crowder, at this point.

I hope you're wrong. I want nothing to do with K. Love. It will cost Wood in that trade scenario and he's also (expiring) so I'd much rather just keep Wood...

[Jym]

Love is officially out of Cavs rotation so I think he's one of the more likely guys to get waived if he's not traded

We should be much more in play for buyout guys this year than the previous years

[KillerLeft]

This won't be popular, I bet, but I'd do this:

Mavs get:

Love
Rubio

Cavs get:

Wood
Bertans
Ntilikina

You upgrade, short term, to much more usable versions of Ntilikina and Bertans. You have a 3rd guard and a second big who can space. Both are infinitely better than the players they'd replace, though much older. MAYBE you can get a 2nd out of it for Wood, but the prize is dumping Bertans. The "cap space fallback plan" becomes truly real.

---

You could also do a version that turns THJ into LaVert along with Wood/Bertans going for Love, if you prefer. I like the one above better, personally.