2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[KillerLeft]

Like you, I wasn't so much worried about Gobert. I thought he'd eventually get played off the floor against Dallas. It's the KAT/Reid frontcourt that gave me nightmares (still does). It means Gafford becomes unplayable and if PJ gets in any kind of foul trouble then you're left with only DJJ at the 4. IF the Wolves go to that almost exclusively, I think they can win. If Gobert continues to play 38 minutes the rest of the way, I like the Mavs chances.

A KAT/Reid/Anderson big rotation would make them a scarier team, imo (again, from the perspective of a heavy pick and roll team like Dallas), but the issue is that they just traded like 87 first round picks for Gobert. To their minds, their team is being BUILT around him, at least defensively. 

I also think Reid is pretty overrated around here. Extremely quick off the dribble for his size? Yes, but only with his right hand, and only in a straight line. Scary as hell as a perimeter catch and shoot spacer? Yes, for sure. Big and strong? Absolutely, but does that translate into good defense? To a point, yes. He's great as a big body coming in to help (on both ends, really), throwing his weight around. But in a 1-on-1 situation, I've observed that he's not all that scary, defensively. I think Bill Simmons said it best the other day. It was something like "if you catch Naz Reid for the exact, right five minutes, you'll think he's an All-NBA second teamer." The point was, and I agree, that he doesn't really make that type of impact if you watch him consistently, although he does have spurts of carnage.

KAT is EASILY the scariest of the bunch, but I'm sorry, I think he's SOFT. And kind of dumb, sometimes. He commits so, so many dumb fouls.

[KillerLeft]

By the way, Smitty, I totally agree with the worry about what happens if Washington gets into foul trouble or (heaven forbid) has to miss a game or two of this series. That's a real concern.

I sure hope O-Max is ready to play next season, because I think in many ways, he's the missing piece here in Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

Speaking of 4/5 depth, should we hold out ANY hope for a Kleber return at some point, or is that just a fantasy, do we think?

[mvossman]

Interesting, I thought the opposite coming in. I'm not ready to change my opinion on that just yet, not that it matters or that we'll ever know. I just thought their size would negate ours and not having Maxi against the Wolves would be almost impossible to overcome.

My biggest fear was Jokic in the post.  Zubac dominated our centers and it was going to be worse with Jokic.  Minny doesn't really have that kind of a post presence.  I also think we match up with them really well on defense.  With DJJ and PJ locking up Ant and Kat, and having rim protecting presence in the middle.  When Gobert is off the floor, we just need to have Lively in (which is why it makes sense to start Gafford but give Lively more minutes).

[KillerLeft]

My biggest fear was Jokic in the post.  Zubac dominated our centers and it was going to be worse with Jokic.  Minny doesn't really have that kind of a post presence.  I also think we match up with them really well on defense.  With DJJ and PJ locking up Ant and Kat, and having rim protecting presence in the middle.  When Gobert is off the floor, we just need to have Lively in (which is why it makes sense to start Gafford but give Lively more minutes).

I did NOT think Zubac dominated Lively. Gafford, yes, but not Lively. You did? 

I wholeheartedly agree with everything else here. It's a good point about how even if Gobert plays less, he's going to start halves, so holding the Lively minutes to more backload him in halves makes a ton of sense.

[Kidnova]

Speaking of 4/5 depth, should we hold out ANY hope for a Kleber return at some point, or is that just a fantasy, do we think?

I thought there were reports he could be ready as soon as game 3?

[KillerLeft]

I thought there were reports he could be ready as soon as game 3?

I heard that, but then I heard later that all he has done so far is shoot (good sign, with the shooting shoulder being the issue) and run on the treadmill. 

I mean...I suppose that it's not a lower body injury, so if he's shooting that's a good start. 

They need him.

[mvossman]

Like you, I wasn't so much worried about Gobert. I thought he'd eventually get played off the floor against Dallas. It's the KAT/Reid frontcourt that gave me nightmares (still does). It means Gafford becomes unplayable and if PJ gets in any kind of foul trouble then you're left with only DJJ at the 4. IF the Wolves go to that almost exclusively, I think they can win. If Gobert continues to play 38 minutes the rest of the way, I like the Mavs chances.

Its interesting that there is this theme that we are better off with Gobert on the floor and Naz is the real danger, yet for the playoffs Gobert has by far the best net rating and Naz the worst, and it played that same way in the first game of this series.  I recognize that single game net rating for a player is not very meaningful, but I am curious if the playoff long trend continues.

[mvossman]

I did NOT think Zubac dominated Lively. Gafford, yes, but not Lively. You did? 

I wholeheartedly agree with everything else here. It's a good point about how even if Gobert plays less, he's going to start halves, so holding the Lively minutes to more backload him in halves makes a ton of sense.

Dominate is probably a strong term, but I think Lively struggled some.  Maybe just say that he separates himself from typical centers more in space than in the post.

[KillerLeft]

Its interesting that there is this theme that we are better off with Gobert on the floor and Naz is the real danger, yet for the playoffs Gobert has by far the best net rating and Naz the worst, and it played that same way in the first game of this series.  I recognize that single game net rating for a player is not very meaningful, but I am curious if the playoff long trend continues.

But, it's not all in a vacuum. 

Gobert IS a way, way better player than Naz Reid. I hope that's obvious to everyone. 

I'll say it again: Styles make fights. You aren't ever, ever going to beat Luka Doncic with drop coverage, as long as he has a passable rim runner. Even Dwight Powell would be sufficient against a team that plays so much drop. I HATE DROP COVERAGE. It's what soured me on Porzingis, watching Dame Lillard eat his lunch in the bubble. 

Back to whether Denver or Minnesota is the worse matchup for Dallas, I'm sorry...after watching how much trouble Luka (admittedly, dealing with an injury) had against Lu Dort, can you imagine the hell he would've been put through in a 7-game series against Aaron Gordon? I mean, he's like the crossbred child of Dort and McDaniels!!!! I do think McDaniels will eventually find ways to bother Luka with his length, kind of like Wiggins and Mann do, but my goodness, Gordon has EVERYTHING needed to make Luka's life hard in one package!  And Jokic against either Gafford or Lively would've been eye-opening around here, I think. I watched him murder Gobert for three, straight games like he wasn't there, so it's tough for me to envision Lively's length being a problem, and he wouldn't even see Gafford on defense.

[KillerLeft]

The thing to be scared about relative to Minnesota, imo, is Anthony Edwards. Many of you have watched this team a bunch and will now what I'm talking about, but for those who started paying attention last night, he is a BEAST, and last night didn't show his game in adequate light.

There's loads and loads of negative talk out there about him today, which scares me to death. "What's wrong with Edwards? Is he really admitting he was tired?" Etc. That's going to do nothing but piss him off and motivate him. This is a man who, once he's headed downhill, can run through a brick wall and finish at the rim like he didn't even feel it. OR, he can pull up from midrange almost as well as Kyrie/Luka. Or, he can hit transition, back breaking 3's. Or, he can hit catch-and-shoot 3's, stepbacks, etc. AND, when he's locked in, he can actually be one of the better, more physically imposing defenders in the league. HE is scary.

I don't think he understood how to beat the Mavs' defensive gameplan last night, and that's encouraging to me, because I don't think the Wolves can hit those 3's through the entire series, even if they're wide open.

There's a lot of talk on the internet today about this great Chris Finch film session, but if you know Minnesota, you know that was 10000% about their DEFENSIVE effort and attention to detail, and I, for one, trust Luka/Kyrie to have counters ready and loaded for whatever changes come. It's going to be tougher, for sure, and there might be a game or two coming where the Wolves blow our Mavs out, but if packing the paint was THIS effective at neutralizing Edwards in game 1...idk, I just have a good feeling about that.

Kind of reminded me of how Dallas dealt with LeBron in 2011, a little.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Speaking of 4/5 depth, should we hold out ANY hope for a Kleber return at some point, or is that just a fantasy, do we think?

Tim Cato mentioned that he had heard some cautious optimism within the org that he could be ready in the next few games.  He also mentioned the person he heard that from normally is optimistic about these things though.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

But, it's not all in a vacuum. 

Gobert IS a way, way better player than Naz Reid. I hope that's obvious to everyone. 

I'll say it again: Styles make fights. You aren't ever, ever going to beat Luka Doncic with drop coverage, as long as he has a passable rim runner. Even Dwight Powell would be sufficient against a team that plays so much drop. I HATE DROP COVERAGE. It's what soured me on Porzingis, watching Dame Lillard eat his lunch in the bubble. 

Back to whether Denver or Minnesota is the worse matchup for Dallas, I'm sorry...after watching how much trouble Luka (admittedly, dealing with an injury) had against Lu Dort, can you imagine the hell he would've been put through in a 7-game series against Aaron Gordon? I mean, he's like the crossbred child of Dort and McDaniels!!!! I do think McDaniels will eventually find ways to bother Luka with his length, kind of like Wiggins and Mann do, but my goodness, Gordon has EVERYTHING needed to make Luka's life hard in one package!  And Jokic against either Gafford or Lively would've been eye-opening around here, I think. I watched him murder Gobert for three, straight games like he wasn't there, so it's tough for me to envision Lively's length being a problem, and he wouldn't even see Gafford on defense.

Agree here.  Having to guard Jokic and having Luka deal with another physical defender with Gordon always felt a lot more intimidating.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The thing to be scared about relative to Minnesota, imo, is Anthony Edwards. Many of you have watched this team a bunch and will now what I'm talking about, but for those who started paying attention last night, he is a BEAST, and last night didn't show his game in adequate light.

There's loads and loads of negative talk out there about him today, which scares me to death. "What's wrong with Edwards? Is he really admitting he was tired?" Etc. That's going to do nothing but piss him off and motivate him. This is a man who, once he's headed downhill, can run through a brick wall and finish at the rim like he didn't even feel it. OR, he can pull up from midrange almost as well as Kyrie/Luka. Or, he can hit transition, back breaking 3's. Or, he can hit catch-and-shoot 3's, stepbacks, etc. AND, when he's locked in, he can actually be one of the better, more physically imposing defenders in the league. HE is scary.

I don't think he understood how to beat the Mavs' defensive gameplan last night, and that's encouraging to me, because I don't think the Wolves can hit those 3's through the entire series, even if they're wide open.

There's a lot of talk on the internet today about this great Chris Finch film session, but if you know Minnesota, you know that was 10000% about their DEFENSIVE effort and attention to detail, and I, for one, trust Luka/Kyrie to have counters ready and loaded for whatever changes come. It's going to be tougher, for sure, and there might be a game or two coming where the Wolves blow our Mavs out, but if packing the paint was THIS effective at neutralizing Edwards in game 1...idk, I just have a good feeling about that.

Kind of reminded me of how Dallas dealt with LeBron in 2011, a little.

Ant is great and can absolutely explode for some huge games but he has been wildly inconsistent this post season despite what how the national media paints the picture.  If he is given the same treatment that we gave Shai (forcing tough mid range jumpers) then I think he have a worse showing that what Shai gave us.  Not to say that he won't find a way to take games over throughout the series, he just isn't nearly as consistent or as good in the mid range as what we just saw and also has worse shooting (on paper at least) than Shai had at his disposal for drive and kick situations.  Game 2 is going to be very interesting but winning a shooting variance game like we did last night has to have the Wolves kicking themselves today and looking for answers.

[KillerLeft]

Ant is great and can absolutely explode for some huge games but he has been wildly inconsistent this post season despite what how the national media paints the picture.  If he is given the same treatment that we gave Shai (forcing tough mid range jumpers) then I think he have a worse showing that what Shai gave us.  Not to say that he won't find a way to take games over throughout the series, he just isn't nearly as consistent or as good in the mid range as what we just saw and also has worse shooting (on paper at least) than Shai had at his disposal for drive and kick situations.  Game 2 is going to be very interesting but winning a shooting variance game like we did last night has to have the Wolves kicking themselves today and looking for answers.

This is EXCELLENT analysis, and I agree - if Edwards is boxed into the areas SGA was in the previous series, he'll perform much, much worse than SGA did. 

But part of that is that SGA likes those areas. Those are the areas he wants to play from, and he didn't have the physicality to get deeper, anyway. Edwards does NOT want to play from those areas, and he DOES have the physicality to do something about it. 

I am reminded of a scene from the movie Seabiscuit (not a great film, but I remember weird stuff, just the way I am). They were preparing for the big show down with War Admiral, and the trainer is trying to convince the team that Sea Biscuit might be better off trying to race from in front for the duration, rather than the come-from-behind strategy that had worked up to that point. He said something about War Admiral like "once we let that big monster loose, we'll never catch him." I think there might some shock and awe coming in the near future if/when Edwards gets his entire game going. It's impressive. 

But yes, I agree with you. If the Mavs can keep him contained, he isn't experienced enough to hurt them the way SGA did. That's such a big ask though, over a 7-game series. 

What a great series to watch!

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

But part of that is that SGA likes those areas. Those are the areas he wants to play from, and he didn't have the physicality to get deeper, anyway. Edwards does NOT want to play from those areas, and he DOES have the physicality to do something about it. 

For sure, Edwards wants to get deeper and did it time and time again against the Nugs but I'm curious how much that holds up against our defense.  Last night he certainly seemed to have something going on in his head considering he only had 2 shots of the rim but you know he'll come out trying to change that game 2.  What we have that Denver didn't is TWO great rim protectors to greet him there.  And the difference now is instead of those bigs having to leave Chet on the perimeter (where he just missed everything anyway) to meet drivers at the rim, they will simply be leaving the most offensively inept center this league has seen since Ben Wallace.

Game 2 will be fascinating.  Every team in this league seems to believe that it's better to blitz Luka and make the Mavs beat you 4 on 3 with shakier decision makers handling the ball and role players shooting corner threes but the Mavs have proven to be able to win that way against tough opponents now.  Plus it completely goes against the Wolves identity because if you start blitzing the pick and roll ...what's even the point of having Rudy on the floor?  To your earlier point, it's hard to go away from him completely just because of sunk cost fallacy though.

This is the issue Coach Bud faced when he got fired from Milwaukee.  He had so much success playing the drop all year and refused to go away from it despite it showing cracks during the playoffs.  Will be fun to see what the Wolves do.

[KillerLeft]

Game 2 will be fascinating.  Every team in this league seems to believe that it's better to blitz Luka and make the Mavs beat you 4 on 3 with shakier decision makers handling the ball and role players shooting corner threes but the Mavs have proven to be able to win that way against tough opponents now.  Plus it completely goes against the Wolves identity because if you start blitzing the pick and roll ...what's even the point of having Rudy on the floor?  To your earlier point, it's hard to go away from him completely just because of sunk cost fallacy though.

Yep!

[Smitty]

This is EXCELLENT analysis, and I agree - if Edwards is boxed into the areas SGA was in the previous series, he'll perform much, much worse than SGA did. 

But part of that is that SGA likes those areas. Those are the areas he wants to play from, and he didn't have the physicality to get deeper, anyway. Edwards does NOT want to play from those areas, and he DOES have the physicality to do something about it. 

I am reminded of a scene from the movie Seabiscuit (not a great film, but I remember weird stuff, just the way I am). They were preparing for the big show down with War Admiral, and the trainer is trying to convince the team that Sea Biscuit might be better off trying to race from in front for the duration, rather than the come-from-behind strategy that had worked up to that point. He said something about War Admiral like "once we let that big monster loose, we'll never catch him." I think there might some shock and awe coming in the near future if/when Edwards gets his entire game going. It's impressive. 

But yes, I agree with you. If the Mavs can keep him contained, he isn't experienced enough to hurt them the way SGA did. That's such a big ask though, over a 7-game series. 

What a great series to watch!

ANT will singlehandedly win them a game in this series imo. He's that good. I expect the Wolves to play with more physicality tomorrow night. I think they have Conley guard Kai but blitz him in the PnR, that way they can keep ANT fresh for offense. He's the one that stirs the drink for them on that end.

[KillerLeft]

I expect the Wolves to play with more physicality tomorrow night. I think they have Conley guard Kai but blitz him in the PnR

I'm not saying you're wrong, because we might very well see them try that at some point in the series, but if they do, that's a tactical win for Dallas, because Kyrie won't even need a screen to beat Conley, which means Dallas can easily position offensive players to dictate where the help defense comes from, and that it comes off of the Mavs players THEY want freed up. That, imo, would be a grave error on the part of Minnesota.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think it's more likely that Conley gets a very short leash in favor of NAW just so there's someone else to guard Kyrie so Ant can focus on offense.