Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[Mavs2021]

My point is most of our postulated trades are a little homerish, and they are even less likely with a quality GM.

The Pelicans moved up 10 spots last year in a weaker draft in a later region (23 to 13) and paid with an unprotected 1st. Don´t see how it is unreasonable to expect the #12 and #17 pick for the #9 pick, especially while taking on Joe´s contract. Thunder don´t need to do it. Only other trade up dance partner are the Hawks.

Though I have a sneaky feeling that Wiggins trade was only part one of the transaction. Hawks might deal #8 for #12+#17+ Joe with the Thunder on draft night. That Hawks GM hasn´t acted like a Nico so far. Very suspicious behaviour.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The Free Press has confirmed with multiple people within the league not permitted to speak publicly that the Pistons have been involved in discussions regarding Tyler Herro. And though it remains to be seen if the deal will get across the finish line, three of their key role players – Isaiah Stewart, Duncan Robinson, and Ron Holland – are candidates to be moved in such a trade.  As the adage goes, it takes money to make money. The Pistons' assets include all of their first-round picks, including No. 21 in Tuesday's draft, a trove of second-round picks, and several good players on contracts that can be easily moved.



Detroit Free Press

That would make Miami another trade back candidate at 13/21.  Not as strong as 12/17 or 14/18.

When we did the OMax deal, wasn't it 10 and eat the Bertans contract for 12 with the TPE then leading to getting 24 for absorbing Holmes.  So, taking the Bertans for Holmes piece out of it, it was 10 for 12 and 24.  You would need more to go from 9 to 13 than just 21 based on that.

[SkenfromLMF]

That would make Miami another trade back candidate at 13/21.  Not as strong as 12/17 or 14/18.

When we did the OMax deal, wasn't it 10 and eat the Bertans contract for 12 with the TPE then leading to getting 24 for absorbing Holmes.  So, taking the Bertans for Holmes piece out of it, it was 10 for 12 and 24.  You would need more to go from 9 to 13 than just 21 based on that.

According to Pelton's chart 10 for 12 & 24 valued at 420 for 375 & 200 which is roughly 73% return for the team trading up.
This year a trade of 9 for 12 & 17 is 445 for 375 + 285 which is just over 67% return for the trade up which seems to be short... (BTW 48 splits that difference to just over 71%) That said, Joe for 37 and the aforementioned 6 + 48/12+17 feels about as good a deal anyone could hope for dealing with Presti.

9 for 13 & 21 is 445 for 355 & 235 and returns 75.4% for the trade up 

The question regarding the return on 9 comes down to where someone believes the drop-offs occur.

I have a top 3; 4-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-22 as tiers. Not close to expert level in this estimation admittedly, but dropping from 9 should be an expensive process this year because of that tiering.

[Smitty]

@GeryWoelfel
I tweeted Saturday how the Celtics had intensified their offer to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo.
That offer, several sources said, appears to have gotten the Bucks attention.
There is now a growing belief Antetokounmpo is Boston bound.
We’ll find out soon as the NBA draft commences tomorrow night.

[Smitty]

BREAKING: Trae Young intends to sign a four-year, approximately $212 million deal to stay with the Washington Wizards, with a player option in Year 4, sources tell ESPN. The four-time NBA All-Star declined his $49M player option for a long-term commitment ahead of free agency.

[DallasMaverick]

According to Pelton's chart 10 for 12 & 24 valued at 420 for 375 & 200 which is roughly 73% return for the team trading up.
This year a trade of 9 for 12 & 17 is 445 for 375 + 285 which is just over 67% return for the trade up which seems to be short... (BTW 48 splits that difference to just over 71%) That said, Joe for 37 and the aforementioned 6 + 48/12+17 feels about as good a deal anyone could hope for dealing with Presti.

9 for 13 & 21 is 445 for 355 & 235 and returns 75.4% for the trade up 

The question regarding the return on 9 comes down to where someone believes the drop-offs occur.

I have a top 3; 4-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-22 as tiers. Not close to expert level in this estimation admittedly, but dropping from 9 should be an expensive process this year because of that tiering.

https://wsb.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content...rves-6.pdf

Fascinating how the median value drops like a rock after the first 5 picks or so.

Perhaps the 2026 draft is unique in the expectations for the picks after 5. Maybe it's a flatter curve, possibly out to 12 or 15. More, even?

Maybe even 1984 or 1996?

[mvossman]

According to Pelton's chart 10 for 12 & 24 valued at 420 for 375 & 200 which is roughly 73% return for the team trading up.
This year a trade of 9 for 12 & 17 is 445 for 375 + 285 which is just over 67% return for the trade up which seems to be short... (BTW 48 splits that difference to just over 71%) That said, Joe for 37 and the aforementioned 6 + 48/12+17 feels about as good a deal anyone could hope for dealing with Presti.

9 for 13 & 21 is 445 for 355 & 235 and returns 75.4% for the trade up 

The question regarding the return on 9 comes down to where someone believes the drop-offs occur.

I have a top 3; 4-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-22 as tiers. Not close to expert level in this estimation admittedly, but dropping from 9 should be an expensive process this year because of that tiering.

I'm curious who you have in the 6-10 tier other than the guards?  Ament?

[F Gump]

I assume this is “Kyrie Irving isn’t available for what people would offer right now.” Although if the team sees some success, wonder if Masai is less inclined to move him. I hope he’s looking at the bigger picture.

While I agree with the broad premise that essentially ANY player is available at some price, there are some players where their teams aren't even interested in hearing offers, because they have such non-interest that it's a waste of time for everyone.

I think Kyrie is in that category right now.

[mvossman]

According to Pelton's chart 10 for 12 & 24 valued at 420 for 375 & 200 which is roughly 73% return for the team trading up.
This year a trade of 9 for 12 & 17 is 445 for 375 + 285 which is just over 67% return for the trade up which seems to be short... (BTW 48 splits that difference to just over 71%) That said, Joe for 37 and the aforementioned 6 + 48/12+17 feels about as good a deal anyone could hope for dealing with Presti.

9 for 13 & 21 is 445 for 355 & 235 and returns 75.4% for the trade up 

The question regarding the return on 9 comes down to where someone believes the drop-offs occur.

I have a top 3; 4-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-22 as tiers. Not close to expert level in this estimation admittedly, but dropping from 9 should be an expensive process this year because of that tiering.

These charts are a lot less accurate in the NBA than they are in the NFL (which has a much smoother talent curve and much less variability from year to year).  I think it will simply come down to who is there at 9 and how badly another team wants them.  

If I understand your Joe for 37 you are suggesting OKC sends out 37 for Mavs to absorb that contract?  Given that they just got two seconds for Wiggins, my guess is they will get assets for Joe, not pay to get off him.

[SkenfromLMF]

I'm curious who you have in the 6-10 tier other than the guards?  Ament?

Yeah I have Ament as the 10th. I am not sure I have given Mara enough value but my valuations are definitely through a Mavs-colored lens.

[F Gump]

BREAKING: Trae Young intends to sign a four-year, approximately $212 million deal to stay with the Washington Wizards, with a player option in Year 4, sources tell ESPN. The four-time NBA All-Star declined his $49M player option for a long-term commitment ahead of free agency.

The idea of decline (PO) and extend seemed like a fairly obvious outcome from Trae being acquired by WAS.

But I'm quite surprised by the size of the new deal. It starts at over $45M (the declined year was $49M iirc). I just dont think he is worth nearly that amount.

But it certainly gives an indication of where the Wiz want to head. I bet they plan to keep AD and try to make it for long term.

[SkenfromLMF]

These charts are a lot less accurate in the NBA than they are in the NFL (which has a much smoother talent curve and much less variability from year to year).  I think it will simply come down to who is there at 9 and how badly another team wants them.  

If I understand your Joe for 37 you are suggesting OKC sends out 37 for Mavs to absorb that contract?  Given that they just got two seconds for Wiggins, my guess is they will get assets for Joe, not pay to get off him.

I am saying making it part of the 9 trade down works in Dallas' favor

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

BREAKING: Trae Young intends to sign a four-year, approximately $212 million deal to stay with the Washington Wizards, with a player option in Year 4, sources tell ESPN. The four-time NBA All-Star declined his $49M player option for a long-term commitment ahead of free agency.

what the F

[Mavs2021]

The idea of decline (PO) and extend seemed like a fairly obvious outcome from Trae being acquired by WAS.

But I'm quite surprised by the size of the new deal. It starts at over $45M (the declined year was $49M iirc). I just dont think he is worth nearly that amount.

But it certainly gives an indication of where the Wiz want to head. I bet they plan to keep AD and try to make it for long term.

Congratulations to the Wizards, pulled a nice magic trick. They bid against themselves and still overshot the target by $72M. Nobody would or could have given Young more than $35M a year. Not even Nico would be that stupid. And I´m generous with $35M. There is a reason they have not won 50 games since 1978. I think the NBA discontinued the Sonics for giving the Bullets an NBA championship.

[KillerLeft]

what the F

Agreed, and this is a Wizards' front office that seems to have been trending upwards, recently. 

It just goes to show that if you suffer through several seasons without without offensive creation you'll overpay for it like a man who just crawled through the desert might overpay for a bottle of Aquafina.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Didn't he just get salary dumped because no one even wanted to pay him for 1 year?

[mvossman]

Congratulation to the Wizards, pulled a nice magic trick. They bid against themselves and still overshot the target by $72M. Nobody would or could have given Young more than $35M a year. Not even Nico would be that stupid.

Sure he would!

[KillerLeft]

I was thinking he's get something like 3yrs/$100 million. 

Didn't he just get salary dumped because no one even wanted to pay him for 1 year?

I think he got salary dumped because no one wanted to be on the hook for a deal like this, not because they were scared of next year, alone. As soon as WAS pulled the trigger I assumed they were ready to offer a long term contract, but I admit I expected it to be a little smaller than this.

Is this another full max?

[mvossman]

The idea of decline (PO) and extend seemed like a fairly obvious outcome from Trae being acquired by WAS.

But I'm quite surprised by the size of the new deal. It starts at over $45M (the declined year was $49M iirc). I just dont think he is worth nearly that amount.

But it certainly gives an indication of where the Wiz want to head. I bet they plan to keep AD and try to make it for long term.

And AD contract may be worse.  It's one of many reasons I'm so glad to be done with him.

[Mavs2021]

If I didn´t dislike AD so much, I´d be so amused by the dumb contract they must prepare for him right now.