Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[omahen]

And the claim that we don't have a real view of how teams want to work a payroll under the 2nd apron limits is utter nonsense - this is year FOUR of this CBA and as you wisely note, most deals on today's payrolls were made since then. 

I think you are disregarding a lot of things in this statement and I think that full effect of apron consequences is getting more and more serious with each season. When aprons were first implemented, it was a new situation both for teams and players. Players were demanding salaries they were used to and often got it. There were still teams throwing around money in hope of short term success. I think this is visibly reducing year by year and most of those hefty deals handed over in 2024 and 2025 are negative now. 

Spotrac has this nice site about offseason spending in last two years (unfortunately not further back). Counting both extensions and free agents. 1.7 billion more was spent last summer compared to this one. Some extensions will still be signed, so the difference will get lower, but I think it is safe to say it will not reach the number from last season. According to other web sources, another 1.7 billion more was spent in the record 2024 summer. We can see a declining trend of over 30 % yearly.

Spending 2024: 7.4 billion
Spending: 2025: 5.7 billion
Spending 2026: 4 billion

2026 NBA Offseason Summary

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Trey Murphy, Pelicans. Murphy’s contract is not prohibitive (three years, $87 million), and because he is a wing who can play both ways, he has been especially coveted on the market. But the Pelicans have not gotten serious about moving him yet, because he is still only 26 and the team wants to see how the roster comes together. They’ve asked for as much as four first-round picks, as the Grizzlies got for Desmond Bane, but that price will come down if the Pelicans move him. Western Conference executive: “I think they’d still hold firm on three first-rounders for him. They look at the return for Mikal Bridges (five first-rounders) and Bane, and they see Murphy in the same category. But those deals, teams are not going to want to do those going forward. So, a good young rotation player and two first-rounders is probably where you land.”

Heavy.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Kyrie Irving has a $42 million player option in 2027-28, and his getting dealt to a contender might rest on a handshake deal (like James Harden in Cleveland) on the option year. Western Conference executive: “If you have some sense that, OK, we pay him $40 million this year, and next year he opts out and we can do a two-year deal or a three-year deal at a lesser number, then I think you can do something. If he comes back and he is scoring 24, 25 points (per game), then you will have teams willing to give up a first-round pick for him. Maybe more, maybe a young player, too. But with his injury history, I don’t think you give up more than one first.”

Heavy.com

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Michael Porter Jr., Nets. Porter is in an odd spot because he needs an extension as he heads into the final year of his contract at $40 million. He showed All-Star ability when given more free rein last year, but that was on a bad Nets team. Brooklyn should be better this year, and Porter will need to show he can keep putting up star numbers on a team that is trying. But if an extension does not get done … what then? Eastern Conference executive: “I think what he did last year is legit, and teams are going to see it that way. But the problem you have is if you trade for him, are you going to extend him, and what is the number? The Nuggets overpaid him when they gave him that extension, and if he wants to be paid based on that, that is not going to be an easy sell. If he can accept getting into a salary slot that makes more sense for him, you can make that trade. It’s an expiring deal, but the Nets would get a first-round pick for him still.”

Heavy.com

[Chicagojk]

Michael Porter Jr., Nets. Porter is in an odd spot because he needs an extension as he heads into the final year of his contract at $40 million. He showed All-Star ability when given more free rein last year, but that was on a bad Nets team. Brooklyn should be better this year, and Porter will need to show he can keep putting up star numbers on a team that is trying. But if an extension does not get done … what then? Eastern Conference executive: “I think what he did last year is legit, and teams are going to see it that way. But the problem you have is if you trade for him, are you going to extend him, and what is the number? The Nuggets overpaid him when they gave him that extension, and if he wants to be paid based on that, that is not going to be an easy sell. If he can accept getting into a salary slot that makes more sense for him, you can make that trade. It’s an expiring deal, but the Nets would get a first-round pick for him still.”

Heavy.com

I am really surprised that Nets GM is still there.   How many years since the Kyrie and KD trade?  They still have very little foundation for a team who has been bad for a while.    They drafted Brown, who a lot of people like.  I was not as high on him.    I do like Demin though.

They held on to Claxton for too long and got very little back.  Now they have Randle and Porter Jr.   Neither are probably fits long.  They signed Moritz Wagner and Keon Ellis this summer.   They just feel rudderless.   Bad place to be playing next to the NBA champions.

[ACMFFL]

Please re-read my disclaimer in the initial post  I don't think this move is on the table. I was only discussing the value of role players on 20 per or higher contracts. 

While I do agree that that specific case seems light, I guess the argument the author made is not about this season. There are several positive outlooks, that have a lot to do with how you value the specific player and long-term situation:
- Mavs save huge money. If you see that contract as a negative, that is certainly a plus. It brings more flexibility moving forward. The saving doesn't help this season as it is not needed, but it does help in the future
- Mavs open minutes for other guys in their otherwise forward heavy line-up. This would help improve their value. As currently constructed, Mavs would have a sort of imbalance on the roster, that would result also in playing players out of their natural positions
- one could also argue, that PJ value will further decrease if Mavs decide to play Morez more at the four. It is not like PJ will be expiring after this season, he will still have 3 years left on his deal, will be a year older,...
- Pick swap is basically a lottery ticket. Who knows where Lakers and Mavs will be in 2032, totally subjective. Luka, if he is still on the team, will be 33 at that time. Flagg will be in his early prime. So one could hope that Mavs are much better than Lakers then. Perhaps you are lucky, and Lakers really suck. Teams like OKC with several lottery tickets like that, tend to hit on (some of) them on a regular basis. Of course you can also be more pesimistic and claim that Lakers are always good and their pick swap is worthless.

Yeah I get it but my whole point was Mavs have no interest at all in trading PJ at this current perceived value.

Maybe it's just me but I think author's main purpose was engagement farming, it's that period of the off-season after all. I mean he didn't even try to take Mavs side into account at all, but only the Lakers'.

-In reality, the Mavs don't need to shed future money; as things stand, projections place them $33 million below the 1st apron threshold for the 2027/28 season with 12 players under contracts. If they need to clear cap space to extend both Christie and Lively, they could trade Caleb and/or Gafford during the 2027 offseason and still have the NTMLE available. 

- I hate to repeat myself, but until Lively proves he’s 100% healthy, there will be minutes available for all the forwards in the rotation. Aldama isn't a natural center, but I think he could play the 5 alongside very physical defenders like PJ and Morez, thereby freeing up play time for the latter two at the 4.
I’d say they need to play in a winning environment to boost their value, and in that regard, PJ is a much better fit than the Lakers' benchwarmers.

- The 2032 pick swap could turn out to be completely worthless: it’s six years out, and there’s too much variance. OKC still had a young core when they facilitated the Gafford trade, but in that instance, the swap involved a pick just four years out. I’m not sure how many teams would be willing to give up a late-round pick in exchange for a swap so far in the future.
Furthermore, the Mavs aren't exactly well-positioned in terms of assets to bet on the Lakers struggling six years down the line; they need something more concrete and tangible.

I honestly don't see any reasonable point to move PJ at this lowest value .

[omahen]

Yeah I get it but my whole point was Mavs have no interest at all in trading PJ at this current perceived value.

Maybe it's just me but I think author just wanted to farm engangements, it's that period of the off-season after all. I mean he didn't even try to take Mavs side into account at all, but only the Lakers'.

-In reality, the Mavs don't need to shed future money; as things stand, projections place them $33 million below the 1st apron threshold for the 2027/28 season with 12 players under contracts. If they need to clear cap space to extend both Christie and Lively, they could trade Caleb and/or Gafford during the 2027 offseason and still have the NTMLE available. 

- I hate to repeat myself, but until Lively proves he’s 100% healthy, there will be minutes available for all the forwards in the rotation. Aldama isn't a natural center, but I think he could play the 5 alongside very physical defenders like PJ and Morez, thereby freeing up play time for the latter two at the 4.
I’d say they need to play in a winning environment to boost their value, and in that regard, PJ is a much better fit than the Lakers' benchwarmers.

- The 2032 pick swap could turn out to be completely worthless: it’s six years out, and there’s too much variance. OKC still had a young core when they facilitated the Gafford trade, but in that instance, the swap involved a pick just four years out. I’m not sure how many teams would be willing to give up a late-round pick in exchange for a swap so far in the future.
Furthermore, the Mavs aren't exactly well-positioned in terms of assets to bet on the Lakers struggling six years down the line; they need something more concrete and tangible.

I honestly don't see any reasonable point to move PJ at this lowest value .

I respect your opinion and I accept the Mavs point of view. But as you said, you have to take both sides into ecquation. As much as it is possible and true that this valuation is not attractive to Mavs, it is also possible that higher valuation is not attractive to (in this specific case) Lakers or any other team. This is why I think a PJ Washington trade is not happening. The market is simply not willing to put more on the table. At least it seems so. This doesn't mean that the valuation the author made is wrong, imho.

Things might change in the future. Perhaps someone will get more desperate at TDL or next season and offer more, because they will see PJ as the missing piece. However, it is also possible, that even such a deal wouldn't be on a table anymore in the future.

[ACMFFL]

I respect your opinion and I accept the Mavs point of view. But as you said, you have to take both sides into ecquation. As much as it is possible and true that this valuation is not attractive to Mavs, it is also possible that higher valuation is not attractive to (in this specific case) Lakers or any other team. This is why I think a PJ Washington trade is not happening. The market is simply not willing to put more on the table. At least it seems so. This doesn't mean that the valuation the author made is wrong, imho.

Things might change in the future. Perhaps someone will get more desperate at TDL or next season and offer more, because they will see PJ as the missing piece. However, it is also possible, that even such a deal wouldn't be on a table anymore in the future.

But author didn't take the Mavs into equation at all, it meets only the Lakers' needs—namely, a starting-caliber forward almost for free and freeing up a roster spot at no cost. It's actually a bargain for LAL, they won't find a player of his caliber on the market at that price.
If Masai had considered that fair value, he would have traded PJ a long time ago. Even in the worst case scenario—where PJ's value were to drop somehow—I don't think he would lose any sleep over a second-round pick and a very distant pick swap.

It could also be that the Mavs' front office truly appreciates and values PJ; perhaps they think he will help the team more than what the market currently offers. But as you said, things could drastically change in a heartbeat in the NBA, that's why I insist on the fact that trade value isn't static at all.

[Dirknows]

Kyrie Irving has a $42 million player option in 2027-28, and his getting dealt to a contender might rest on a handshake deal (like James Harden in Cleveland) on the option year. Western Conference executive: “If you have some sense that, OK, we pay him $40 million this year, and next year he opts out and we can do a two-year deal or a three-year deal at a lesser number, then I think you can do something. If he comes back and he is scoring 24, 25 points (per game), then you will have teams willing to give up a first-round pick for him. Maybe more, maybe a young player, too. But with his injury history, I don’t think you give up more than one first.”

Heavy.com

Kyrie is the ultimate finishing piece on a team that is on the cusp but lacks scoring punch. I mean a lot will depend on how the season goes, but if the Hawks or Hornets are playing really well, would they go for the move? Would he resign at either place? We all know Detroit is interested. God knows what Houston is gonna do with their KD mess. Or if the Mavs are playing really well do we end up just keeping him? Going to be interesting.

[omahen]

But author didn't take the Mavs into equation at all, it meets only the Lakers' needs—namely, a starting-caliber forward almost for free and freeing up a roster spot at no cost. It's actually a bargain for LAL, they won't find a player of his caliber on the market at that price.
If Masai had considered that fair value, he would have traded PJ a long time ago. Even in the worst case scenario—where PJ's value were to drop somehow—I don't think he would lose any sleep over a second-round pick and a very distant pick swap.

It could also be that the Mavs' front office truly appreciates and values PJ; perhaps they think he will help the team more than what the market currently offers. But as you said, things could drastically change in a heartbeat in the NBA, that's why I insist on the fact that trade value isn't static at all.

But if the deal would have more draft compensation included, than the author would only look at Mavs needs  PJs salary severly impacts the future flexibility of any team trading for him. In Lakers case specifically, they realistically lose the option to use MLE next season plus all the assets for him. 

Similar players to PJ like Hachimura or Collins, signed for considerably less money this season. Lower deals both in terms of per and total money. Aldama could be considered a similar player than PJ in terms of contribution. Mavs paid AJ Johnson (no value really) a fake first and two seconds for him - 3 SRPs in total. Watson, who is considerably younger with more upside potential, went for 1 FRP and 1 SRP. Lu Dort (arguably better player) went for 3 SRPs. 

It is possible that sometimes there is simply no middle ground and player has more value to a team he is on.

[KillerLeft]

It is possible that sometimes there is simply no middle ground and player has more value to a team he is on.

I think that's kind of the point. Not sure what the argument is about.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The price of the contract is the sticking point. According to league sources, the Pistons are offering a five-year deal that would pay Jalen Duren in the range of $35 million annually. Duren, who agent Chafie Fields of The Team represents, is requesting a deal with an average salary in excess of $40 million. "From either camp, you can see their side," a West executive said. "You can justify it. That's what makes it hard." An executive from an East rival disagreed: "[Duren] and his agent aren't being realistic. They're anchored to the max-type offer. But $35 million is not a discount. It's a lot of money." Jalen Duren wants something around $40M per year. The Pistons are offering $35M per year. This will probably land with Duren getting $37-38M per year. Gotta battle it out for a bit longer. (This is what happened with Josh Giddey/Bulls last season.)

ESPN

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Ohm Youngmisuk: The Wizards and Anthony Davis mutually decided to wait on talks on a potential extension until after the season starts, but depending how the season begins for Washington, the big man might seek a trade. But if he is healthy and comes back looking like the dominant player he has shown he can be, Washington could make noise in the Eastern Conference.

ESPN

[Scott41theMavs]

The price of the contract is the sticking point. According to league sources, the Pistons are offering a five-year deal that would pay Jalen Duren in the range of $35 million annually. Duren, who agent Chafie Fields of The Team represents, is requesting a deal with an average salary in excess of $40 million. "From either camp, you can see their side," a West executive said. "You can justify it. That's what makes it hard." An executive from an East rival disagreed: "[Duren] and his agent aren't being realistic. They're anchored to the max-type offer. But $35 million is not a discount. It's a lot of money."  Jalen Duren wants something around $40M per year. The Pistons are offering $35M per year. This will probably land with Duren getting $37-38M per year. Gotta battle it out for a bit longer. (This is what happened with Josh Giddey/Bulls last season.)

ESPN

See, players and agents look at how dumb teams were over the past five years or so and fail to see that 1) those giant salaries for non-alpha players *were* dumb, and 2) nearly all teams are finished being dumb in 2026.

[ACMFFL]

But if the deal would have more draft compensation included, than the author would only look at Mavs needs  PJs salary severly impacts the future flexibility of any team trading for him. In Lakers case specifically, they realistically lose the option to use MLE next season plus all the assets for him. 

Similar players to PJ like Hachimura or Collins, signed for considerably less money this season. Lower deals both in terms of per and total money. Aldama could be considered a similar player than PJ in terms of contribution. Mavs paid AJ Johnson (no value really) a fake first and two seconds for him - 3 SRPs in total. Watson, who is considerably younger with more upside potential, went for 1 FRP and 1 SRP. Lu Dort (arguably better player) went for 3 SRPs. 

It is possible that sometimes there is simply no middle ground and player has more value to a team he is on.

How? Where is the value for Dallas in that deal? There is no point in moving a starting caliber player for a distant swap that might never even materialize. The 2nd is basically the cost to create an extra roster spot.
I simply see an unfair deal that heavily favors only one of the parties involved.

Well, Lakers can't have their cake and eat it. It's not Mavs business if they are left with almost no asset, it doesn't mean Mavs are required to gift them a starting caliber player for free.

I have both Hachi and Collins as situational starters on a contender team, PJ proved in the PO to be a better player overall than both of them. I honestly don't get the comparisons; Same for Aldama; Watson is also way less proven than PJ and he went for an unprotected 1st and a usefull expiring rotational player, ofc PJ value isn't that high at all at the moment; I honestly don't think there is so much difference between Dort and PJ as players, it depends on what teams actually need, and OKC had to move him in order to stay out of the 2nd apron and they still got the equivalent value of a late 1st. Mavs are in no hurry to move him for financial reasons.

[omahen]

How? Where is the value for Dallas in that deal? There is no point in moving a starting caliber player for a distant swap that might never even materialize. The 2nd is basically the cost to create an extra roster spot.
I simply see an unfair deal that heavily favors only one of the parties involved.

Well, Lakers can't have their cake and eat it. It's not Mavs business if they are left with almost no asset, it doesn't mean Mavs are required to gift them a starting caliber player for free.

I have both Hachi and Collins as situational starters on a contender team, PJ proved in the PO to be a better player overall than both of them. I honestly don't get the comparisons; Same for Aldama; Watson is also way less proven than PJ and he went for an unprotected 1st and a usefull expiring rotational player, ofc PJ value isn't that high at all at the moment; I honestly don't think there is so much difference between Dort and PJ as players, it depends on what teams actually need, and OKC had to move him in order to stay out of the 2nd apron and they still got the equivalent value of a late 1st. Mavs are in no hurry to move him for financial reasons.

You keep repeating Mavs shouldn't take the deal despite me never arguing against it  That doesn't mean I think Lakers would offer more.

[ACMFFL]

You keep repeating Mavs shouldn't take the deal despite me never arguing against it  That doesn't mean I think Lakers would offer more.

Well, I'm just trying to tell you from the very beginning of the conversation that there is no reason for the Mavs to even consider such a loopsided trade in favor of the acquiring team, that's my point.

[omahen]

As for comparisons of players, we will likely need to agree to disagree. Each player has his strength and weaknesses and there are only so few players that are very similar. Only a few are put in a right role on a good team. The season you mentioned for PJ I think is his only season in a winning situation.

PJ is a good overall player. Decent shooter, above average defender. Rui on the other hand is an absolutely elite shooter (he shot 60 % from three in playoffs after over 40 % in the regular season) and an ok defender. Collins is a better scorer but worse defender. Aldama had very similar stats to PJ and is a rare breed of a 4/5 hybrid that can shoot. Watson had arguably better season than prime PJ and is only 23. Of course there is a risk of a small sample. Denver didn't get a rotational player, Cleveland only sent Strus to Clippers because they needed to get under the first apron. Dort went for 3 SRPs - I see this as similar value as 1 SRP and FRP swap.

[F Gump]

As for comparisons of players, we will likely need to agree to disagree. Each player has his strength and weaknesses and there are only so few players that are very similar. Only a few are put in a right role on a good team. The season you mentioned for PJ I think is his only season in a winning situation.

PJ is a good overall player. Decent shooter, above average defender. Rui on the other hand is an absolutely elite shooter (he shot 60 % from three in playoffs after over 40 % in the regular season) and an ok defender. Collins is a better scorer but worse defender. Aldama had very similar stats to PJ and is a rare breed of a 4/5 hybrid that can shoot. Watson had arguably better season than prime PJ and is only 23. Of course there is a risk of a small sample. Denver didn't get a rotational player, Cleveland only sent Strus to Clippers because they needed to get under the first apron. Dort went for 3 SRPs - I see this as similar value as 1 SRP and FRP swap.

Argue all you want, but there's still no way in the world the Mavs would consider taking that worthless pile of junk for PJ. It's one piece of trash after another, just clutter to clog a roster a roster. No thanks.

[mvossman]

As for comparisons of players, we will likely need to agree to disagree. Each player has his strength and weaknesses and there are only so few players that are very similar. Only a few are put in a right role on a good team. The season you mentioned for PJ I think is his only season in a winning situation.

PJ is a good overall player. Decent shooter, above average defender. Rui on the other hand is an absolutely elite shooter (he shot 60 % from three in playoffs after over 40 % in the regular season) and an ok defender. Collins is a better scorer but worse defender. Aldama had very similar stats to PJ and is a rare breed of a 4/5 hybrid that can shoot. Watson had arguably better season than prime PJ and is only 23. Of course there is a risk of a small sample. Denver didn't get a rotational player, Cleveland only sent Strus to Clippers because they needed to get under the first apron. Dort went for 3 SRPs - I see this as similar value as 1 SRP and FRP swap.

Rui is not an elite shooter.  Not nearly enough volume.  Most of those trades were made out of necessity for cap reasons, which obviously can affect value.  Mavs are not in that position.  No reason to sell low.