Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Smitty]

I could see them having a little optimism and paying a reasonable tax bill to let that group have a shot. But would they pay $150m in tax for it? That seems crazy to me.

It’s not my money. The only thing fans should really ever care about is avoiding the second Apron. That’s where all the roster building tools get severely limited. The rest is just some billionaires money.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

[Amick] Michael Porter Jr. is a “lock” to be moved by the trade deadline.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6959490...ed_article

Finally, let’s talk about one deep dark horse: Brooklyn. With one trusted league source telling me that Michael Porter Jr. is a lock to move by the deadline so the Nets can sell high on his career year, it makes sense for the Nets to figure out who will be the centerpiece of their franchise a year from now. Remember, Brooklyn owes a pick swap to Houston in 2027 and thus has no incentive to tank next season. They need some players.

[Mavs2021]

I am pretty sure AD got injured because so many on the board were desperate for a trade. Hilarious stuff actually.

Damn. I thought you were going to tell windjc what a moron he is and apologize to all the smart people.

[Mavs2021]

[Amick] Michael Porter Jr. is a “lock” to be moved by the trade deadline.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6959490...ed_article

Finally, let’s talk about one deep dark horse: Brooklyn. With one trusted league source telling me that Michael Porter Jr. is a lock to move by the deadline so the Nets can sell high on his career year, it makes sense for the Nets to figure out who will be the centerpiece of their franchise a year from now. Remember, Brooklyn owes a pick swap to Houston in 2027 and thus has no incentive to tank next season. They need some players.

It would make sense, and be wildly hiliarous, if the Nets traded MPJ to the Rockets for KD.

Seriously though FVV + Eason + swap back + 1st for MPJ and the Rockets are suddenly disgusting. Just once I wish the Mavs had a smart front office. 

[F Gump]

I could see them having a little optimism and paying a reasonable tax bill to let that group have a shot. But would they pay $150m in tax for it? That seems crazy to me.

I'm not sure where you are getting your $150M number from that you keep using for the Mavs tax next season with the current contracts, but I think it's way high. I don't have my tax widget on this computer, but if they do nothing at all, the Google AI pegs the tax bill for 2026-27 at about $65M. For me that's a fortune, but for NBA teams choosing to work in the vicinity of A2 like the Mavs have deliberately done, it's not a cause for alarm. It's the general cost of doing business. IIRC Cuban paid way more than that one year about 20-25 years ago in order to try to get extra talent, before the NBA started tightening the rules. 

Getting under A2 isn't a major project either. One avenue is simply getting DAR off the payroll next season. That can be done by him just declining his PO, which he might very well do. This hasn't been a good situation for him, and it's not going to get better. If he can get $6M from someone else as a FA, he's gotta be gone whether you want him to or not. I suspect that will be happening and it all resolves itself. Or if they can simply give him away at the TDL for an expiring contract, which might not be so hard, that's another avenue. And Google says just that one move will lower the tax bill to only about $31M. 

So giving away needed talent, at a time when you really need it, imo would be overkill, needless, and counter-productive to the long run. 

After this season's tank, there's no real benefit for them to having a cheap, young, not-so-talented team that's replaying the 90s. This is certainly a question for an expert GM, but I think the better goal would be talent, rather than stripping the roster of the good players you have found in order to cultivate cap room. And perhaps, once they have added a good draft pick in the summer, they will feel they already have plenty of youngsters to develop (Flagg, Christie, Lively, Williams, Cisse, Nembhard, plus a top 10 pick in 2026 would be almost half the team) and Gaff, PJW, and Marshall are also only a year or two older (mid-20s).

[loki]

I'm not sure where you are getting your $150M number from that you keep using for the Mavs tax next season with the current contracts, but I think it's way high. I don't have my tax widget on this computer, but if they do nothing at all, the Google AI pegs the tax bill for 2026-27 at about $65M. For me that's a fortune, but for NBA teams choosing to work in the vicinity of A2 like the Mavs have deliberately done, it's not a cause for alarm. It's the general cost of doing business. IIRC Cuban paid way more than that one year about 20-25 years ago in order to try to get extra talent, before the NBA started tightening the rules. 

The numbers you're seeing are most likely calculated with non-repeater rates. Here's how I'm getting my numbers. I'm assuming a $166M cap based on the league's most recent projections. I won't claim a mistake is impossible, but I think this is in alignment with what Bobby Marks projected recently.

Dallas currently has 12 players under contract for 26-27 (including DLo's player option). Adding that to the $2.3M McGee/Prosper dead cap charges gives a total of $217.1M. They currently have the 8th best lottery odds. If that's where they pick, the 120% rookie scale value would be $7.4M. Let's add a single vet min at $2.5M and assume they run with 14 roster spots. The new total is $227M which would be $25.3M over the $201.7M tax limit.

The 25-26 tax brackets are in increments of $5.685M. The projected cap increase would set the 26-27 brackets in increments of $6.1M. The tax rates I'm using for each bracket are as follows (non-repeater/repeater).

1/3
1.25/3.25
3.5/5.5
4.75/6.75
5.25/7.25
and so on in .5 increments

$25.3M over the tax would result in a bill of $119.5M when paying the repeater rates. This would only be $68.8M if they were paying the non-repeater rates. Below is a graph I created before PJ's extension that shows roughly what each increase in salary would do to the tax payment and overall bill. If the Mavs were to win the lottery they go off the chart.



There are certainly things that can be done to mitigate this. I'm being a little more charitable already by limiting it to 14 roster spots. I don't actually expect them to go off the chart or anywhere close to that, but I do think the situation is a bit more dire than you're suggesting if they do nothing.

[cow]

How many injuries will it take before its clear his body is breaking down.  He is at the age where many NBA big men break down.  He has a history of sustaining a lot of injuries (he is not called "street clothes" for nothing) and as he gets older its going to happen more often and take longer to recover from.  

Giannis is not a good comp.  He is almost two years younger and does not have the same injury history (he is also a much better player).  A better comp would Embiid.  That is the path it looks like AD is heading down.  How much would give for him?

He's been productive when on the court so I'm not sure how you could tell when he is breaking down or not, but with is play of late I don't think we are there yet.  Like you said, he's always had a history of being banged up even in his early days, though I prefer Day-to-Davis to Street Clothes as a nickname. I guess you could also argue, that his oft injured status has saved his legs a lot of mileage throughout his career.

[KillerLeft]

I agree with a lot on both sides of this argument. Generally, I agree AD is a too-often injured player and that these situations are getting to be more and more of a beating.

However, this latest one is a one in a million freak thing, not a sign that he's breaking down. It could've happened to anyone. This is why I think ATL might still be interested.

[mvossman]

I agree with a lot on both sides of this argument. Generally, I agree AD is a too-often injured player and that these situations are getting to be more and more of a beating.

However, this latest one is a one in a million freak thing, not a sign that he's breaking down. It could've happened to anyone. This is why I think ATL might still be interested.

I get this argument but the problem is he has multiple of these "freak" injuries.  Once is a freak accident but several times is a pattern.  We shall see whether he is getting surgery.  I doubt they have much interest if he is not going to play again this season.

[F Gump]

The numbers you're seeing are most likely calculated with non-repeater rates. Here's how I'm getting my numbers. I'm assuming a $166M cap based on the league's most recent projections. I won't claim a mistake is impossible, but I think this is in alignment with what Bobby Marks projected recently.

Dallas currently has 12 players under contract for 26-27 (including DLo's player option). Adding that to the $2.3M McGee/Prosper dead cap charges gives a total of $217.1M. They currently have the 8th best lottery odds. If that's where they pick, the 120% rookie scale value would be $7.4M. Let's add a single vet min at $2.5M and assume they run with 14 roster spots. The new total is $227M which would be $25.3M over the $201.7M tax limit.

The 25-26 tax brackets are in increments of $5.685M. The projected cap increase would set the 26-27 brackets in increments of $6.1M. The tax rates I'm using for each bracket are as follows (non-repeater/repeater).

1/3
1.25/3.25
3.5/5.5
4.75/6.75
5.25/7.25
and so on in .5 increments

$25.3M over the tax would result in a bill of $119.5M when paying the repeater rates. This would only be $68.8M if they were paying the non-repeater rates. Below is a graph I created before PJ's extension that shows roughly what each increase in salary would do to the tax payment and overall bill. If the Mavs were to win the lottery they go off the chart.



There are certainly things that can be done to mitigate this. I'm being a little more charitable already by limiting it to 14 roster spots. I don't actually expect them to go off the chart or anywhere close to that, but I do think the situation is a bit more dire than you're suggesting if they do nothing.

Thank you for taking the time to outline all of that. In general, I don't have any quibble with the payroll numbers (227M) or the roster assumption (filling 14 slots). I think those are the likely landing spots on the present trajectory.

I did not tell Google to use repeater rates, and that is the difference between your number and theirs.

But I do have a small quibble. Your numbers aren't actually 150M. 119M is still a big number, but 150 is over 25% bigger. 

One other thing to mention. It doesn't take massive cuts to payroll to lower that tax number. If DAR can be persuaded to leave (or traded at the TDL for an expiring), the tax is down to about 98M. Find a way to move Hardy and it's down to about 71M. Still big numbers, but not disastrous.

[loki]

Thank you for taking the time to outline all of that. In general, I don't have any quibble with the payroll numbers (227M) or the roster assumption (filling 14 slots). I think those are the likely landing spots on the present trajectory.

I did not tell Google to use repeater rates, and that is the difference between your number and theirs.

But I do have a small quibble. Your numbers aren't actually 150M. 119M is still a big number, but 150 is over 25% bigger. 

One other thing to mention. It doesn't take massive cuts to payroll to lower that tax number. If DAR can be persuaded to leave (or traded at the TDL for an expiring), the tax is down to about 98M. Find a way to move Hardy and it's down to about 71M. Still big numbers, but not disastrous.

No problem! I think I mentioned $150M in that post because I happened to have the 3rd pick plugged into my spreadsheet at the time instead of the 8th. When you're that deep in the tax that's all it takes to swing the outcome pretty wildly. Which as you point out can be a good thing when you're trying to cut. Hopefully they can find takers for some of the deadweight soon.

[SleepingHero]

Zach Langley (@langleyatl)
Neither CJ McCollum nor Corey Kispert are listed on tomorrow night’s injury report.

Kristaps Porzingis is questionable.

Zaccharie Risacher remains OUT.

[ThisIStheYear]

I'm not convinced the "tax" itself is an issue at all. They do need to generally lower payroll somewhat, but from what I can tell that's more of a need to stay under A2 (which has wider consequences) and gain some roster-building flexibility, and not so much about having to pay tax. Eventually they would be smart to work with a somewhat more efficient payroll, of course.

But imo the goal should be maintaining or increasing the talent they have and getting rid of the unproductive players on bad contracts (Hardy, Martin, DAR), not the good ones. Talent is hard to obtain. If you have it, don't let go of it for air (aka cap room) but instead swap it for other talent, if you need a change.

This team isn’t anywhere near good enough to make carefully considered tweaks to build talent. Outside of Flagg, it’s a shithole. The longer they putoff “Eventually”, the longer it will take to get back on track. Outside of Flagg, Max, and DLive, if his career wasn’t ended by Nico’s medical staff’s malpractice, there isn’t a single player on this roster who will plausibly be in the rotation by the time the Mavs can recover to a competitive team. They need to move fast and dump all the old, injury prone, overrated, and crappy players on the roster.

[KillerLeft]

Zach Langley (@langleyatl)
Neither CJ McCollum nor Corey Kispert are listed on tomorrow night’s injury report.

Kristaps Porzingis is questionable.

Zaccharie Risacher remains OUT.

The dream lives on for another day.

[Mavsfan32]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CTV_JFAFjw

Marc Stein talking about the AD situation

[Smitty]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CTV_JFAFjw

Marc Stein talking about the AD situation

Depressing.

[KillerLeft]

DISCLAIMER, right up front: I WOULD NOT DO THIS - not a suggestion.

I'm curious, though, about the level of panic, anger or even just apathy people are feeling right about now. So, question: have we reached the point for any of you where you would INCLUDE a pick in order to make that ATL deal, rather than expect one? Genuinely curious, because the way some are talking, I have a feeling some people might be in favor.

[Chicagojk]

Mavs won’t be able to trade AD this year. Unfortunately, it is up to AD. His spot as a top 75 is on the line. Only way he gets an extension here or somewhere else is if he has at least a half of season of consistent, good play. This is also true if he wants to go somewhere else. Not the worst spot for the Mavs to be….if he ever can get healthy. No offers are coming before the trade deadline though.

[Mavs2021]

DISCLAIMER, right up front: I WOULD NOT DO THIS - not a suggestion.

I'm curious, though, about the level of panic, anger or even just apathy people are feeling right about now. So, question: have we reached the point for any of you where you would INCLUDE a pick in order to make that ATL deal, rather than expect one? Genuinely curious, because the way some are talking, I have a feeling some people might be in favor.

I think you do not need to attach a pick. Teams like Chicago or Atlanta would still do it for their expiring contracts.

I´m sure Porzingis/Kennard or Vucevic/Collins are still on the table.

I also assume Stein is lying. He´s obviously not communicating that there were actual offers, cause everybody would jump on the Mavs right now for not pulling the trigger on something like Porzingis/Kennard/Risacher or Newell + Cavs 2026 pick.

I´ll say this to give you all some hope. AD´s miraculous healthy stretches always seem to coincide with his contractual situation. He will only deteriorate going forward, so for him to get his desired extension, he has to secure it asap. 

No better way to trigger the trade + extension than to manufacture/exaggerate some minor injury and have him play through it to prove what a tough guy he truly is. Yesterday his arm was still in a sling, today he´s out there competing. Badass.

Seriously how does damage to your finger, require a sling? It´s like wearing a neckbrace, cause you have a hurting tooth.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

However, this latest one is a one in a million freak thing, not a sign that he's breaking down. It could've happened to anyone. This is why I think ATL might still be interested.

1. It’s not a freak injury. He’s had injuries to his left hand before. They brought it up on that YouTube link posted above. 

And I disagree with the premise anyway. When a guy is as fragile as AD, detached retina and torn hand ligaments are not freak injuries. They are evidence of how fragile his body is. 

2. Stein says in the clip he now expects AD to be on the Mavs opening roster next year. There wasn’t much market for him already. On no corner of the Internet have I seen anyone even speculate ADs trade value is what Mavs fans have suggested we need to hold out for. There’s no reporting Atlanta even offered Risacher and a 1st and the Mavs were holding out for more.