Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

Earlier today I came up with a way to get him back to GSW. It makes sense for all parties. At least with the reports we’ve heard.

GSW: Klay+Gafford [-$665k Cap]
CHI: Kuminga+Hield  [+$750k Cap]
DAL: C. White+Z.Collins [-$83k Cap]

Assuming they don't trade AD now, I don't think you can trade for a guy like Coby White.  I don't think you can generate enough room to pay his next contract without going over aprons and paying massive tax.  

Holding onto AD really limits what they can do this TDL.  I think they need to send out Klay for space and I would be happy if they can get value out of Gafford, but it can't be somebody like Coby or Mathurin who will be looking for bigger contracts.

[mvossman]

I figure that the AD-to-ATL trade ideas are dead now, but there's possibly some now-or-never urgency for ATL because the KP salary as a trade match for AD is gone once we get to the summer.

In thinking about that, I was fiddling with the numbers using the observation upthread that maybe OO and R are not in ATL's future plans (so, to ATL, they are spare parts, and they might be contracts THEY want to move as much as we want to move ones like Martin, Hardy, and DAR). It's also possible the Hawks could see past the injury-of-the-day for AD and decide they would rather get him in March or so, for their unwanted parts, rather than not at all.

If so (yes, iffy, but also possible), then here's a trade where the numbers work AND it fits all the info, AND both teams get the benefit of clearing unwanted salaries from their roster:
AD, DAR, Hardy, Martin
KP, OO, Ris, Kennard

It's a roster balanced 4-for-4 (which both teams need), both teams are able to send out a couple of unwanted players, and ATL stays under the tax line (there are lots of ideas being floated that are CBA-legal, but leave ATL paying tax, and I believe "no tax" is a MAJOR gotta-have for the Hawks).

The numbers also work if it's expanded to a 5-for-5 by each team adding smaller salaries like Powell, Exum, Newell, Wallace, etc in a way they feel is fair value, or it could be shrunk to a 3-for-3 by removing Martin and Kennard that still keeps ATL from paying tax (it's tight).

In addition (and important, I think), it keeps both teams in good shape cap-wise going forward. And maybe this helps ATL additionally (as well as DAL) so that ATL is even more eager to deal.

Would I still be asking for NO #1 and a future protected 1st? Yes, of course. But if ATL wanted to do the 4-for-4 (or bigger, such as adding Powell and Newell to the swap), then I feel that gives suitable incentive to negotiate on the pick(s) details, and I see ways to do that. Such as: 
[a] maybe adding protections on the NO pick part, so that if it is top ___, ATL gets it and the Mavs get CLE 2026 plus a future unprotected #1, definitely unprotected if ATL is getting the sure thing of a top ___ pick in 2026, or 
[b] making the 2026 pick to DAL be "the better of NO/DAL" instead of an outright pick, which means ATL is assured of getting a good pick anyhow.

LOL, you better hope they don't trade AD at the TDL.  If you were going to be disappointed with the return before, I think you will be even more so now.

[Chicagojk]

Gaff and Kyrie make too much money and simply won’t be relevant when this team is viable again in 2-3 years.  I’m not talking about this summer’s FA class necessarily.  Could be the next one. Dump Klay too.  Start over. Don’t trust anyone over age 25.  And, most importantly, ty out of the tax and aprons. That’s priority one.

I would not be upset if they moved off Kyrie in time.  I don’t think that is the plan now.

Gaff, pJ, Marshall are good players on good contracts.  No need to dump them.  Mavs need to win next year and can’t dump good players just to get off of them.  I suspect some will be moved for better fitting parts but no need to align all your players up in the same age range imo. With today’s cap it is very hard to keep a roster together for an extended run.  Think about it in 3 year runs.  If cooper stays in Dallas, he may have 4 different rosters built around him.

I understand wanting to break everything down but depending where they land in the draft, drastic measures may not be needed.

[Winter]

Assuming they don't trade AD now, I don't think you can trade for a guy like Coby White.  I don't think you can generate enough room to pay his next contract without going over aprons and paying massive tax.  

Holding onto AD really limits what they can do this TDL.  I think they need to send out Klay for space and I would be happy if they can get value out of Gafford, but it can't be somebody like Coby or Mathurin who will be looking for bigger contracts.

You bring up something that I'm curious about. What do the Mavs want to do this TDL now? Would they rather have the new GM work some of this in the summer? Are there pressing contract issues that would be smarter dealt with now?

When AD was the main trade bait, it seems moving players had a certain sequence to it. It doesn't feel that way anymore. 

To me it seems like the tax may be the most important issue facing the Mavs rather than the acquisition of specific players.

[Smitty]

Assuming they don't trade AD now, I don't think you can trade for a guy like Coby White.  I don't think you can generate enough room to pay his next contract without going over aprons and paying massive tax.  

Holding onto AD really limits what they can do this TDL.  I think they need to send out Klay for space and I would be happy if they can get value out of Gafford, but it can't be somebody like Coby or Mathurin who will be looking for bigger contracts.

Klay and Gafford off your books next year is $34.7M. White is not going to have a 1st year salary anywhere near that.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

 Mavs need to win next year 

why?

The 27 pick is gone either way. Letting that influence your timeline is bad process.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Mavs doesn't need lose next year... Better?

[loki]

I would not be upset if they moved off Kyrie in time.  I don’t think that is the plan now.

Gaff, pJ, Marshall are good players on good contracts.  No need to dump them.  Mavs need to win next year and can’t dump good players just to get off of them.  I suspect some will be moved for better fitting parts but no need to align all your players up in the same age range imo. With today’s cap it is very hard to keep a roster together for an extended run.  Think about it in 3 year runs.  If cooper stays in Dallas, he may have 4 different rosters built around him.

I understand wanting to break everything down but depending where they land in the draft, drastic measures may not be needed.

While I wouldn't advocate "dumping" Gaff, PJ, or Marshall, I do think they could net the Mavs both some cap relief and draft capital. The alternative is having to attach assets to guys like Hardy, Martin, or DLo to shed salary. I see no world where the Mavs go into next season on track to have one of the most expensive rosters (cap+tax) in NBA history. That's where they're headed at the moment.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Gaff, PJ, Marshall, Klay are guys you get when your team is close to put you over the top. Like the Mavs did with the Luka run to the Finals.

They are not guys you keep when you're rebuilding around a 19yr old.

[Smitty]

I see no world where the Mavs go into next season on track to have one of the most expensive rosters (cap+tax) in NBA history. That's where they're headed at the moment.

I guess it depends on how competitive you think a team with Kyrie-Max-Flagg-PJW- AD/Lively and ‘26 FRP plus the other role players can be next year.

[loki]

I saw a proposal somewhere of Gafford+Thompson to Boston for Simons (expiring) and a 1st. That reduces the Mavs payroll by nearly $29m next year and potentially gets them out of the tax entirely. I'd love to see a move like that.

[mvossman]

Unless it's an ongoing or career-threatening injury (and there's no indication it's anything like that), he's still AD. You just have to deal with the hassle that you won't get him on the floor right away. Have to wait a month or 2 or so before you open the package under the tree. 

Teams will weigh that, and what it means to them. Each team will see it their own way. They will play with the what-if's, and their own timelines. 

All in all, I am certain it's going to be way more fluid than we think. I was not predicting and don't know exactly when. I don't know how many teams. I don't know what offers will look like. I just know the interest in him didn't evaporate, and it will inevitably heat back up again at some point. It may have not gone away, even, and only waiting for a better definition of his timeline for recovery.

We look at this through our own lens, but we have our preset biases that impact how we view such things. Consider: if Giannis was seriously in play, and we thought we could get him, but he had this injury happen, would we want the Mavs to walk away? Or would we want them to go ahead and work the deal, subject to doing some due diligence on the injury? That's easy, right? I think for teams who are truly wanting AD (and there are far more than we are hearing about), it's similar.

All that's true of DAL as well. This setback may have made them no more anxious to trade him than they were before. 

Most DAL fans, of course, threw up their hands and said, "Trade the bum, get him out of here. Just find a taker, and get him gone. I'm done here." I get it. But for the NBA this is only a bump in the road, a road that keeps going.

How many injuries will it take before its clear his body is breaking down.  He is at the age where many NBA big men break down.  He has a history of sustaining a lot of injuries (he is not called "street clothes" for nothing) and as he gets older its going to happen more often and take longer to recover from.  

Giannis is not a good comp.  He is almost two years younger and does not have the same injury history (he is also a much better player).  A better comp would Embiid.  That is the path it looks like AD is heading down.  How much would give for him?

[loki]

I guess it depends on how competitive you think a team with Kyrie-Max-Flagg-PJW- AD/Lively and ‘26 FRP plus the other role players can be next year.

I could see them having a little optimism and paying a reasonable tax bill to let that group have a shot. But would they pay $150m in tax for it? That seems crazy to me.

[Chicagojk]

why?

The 27 pick is gone either way.  Letting that influence your timeline is bad process.

Maybe try to win is the better way to say it.

Flagg is a winner and is ready to compete now.  Not trying to win without your picks is a tough way to move forward.

[mvossman]

Klay and Gafford off your books next year is $34.7M. White is not going to have a 1st year salary anywhere near that.

Mavs need to shed cap from where they are now and those two salaries are the best avenue to doing it.  I think it would be really tight.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Maybe try to win is the better way to say it.

Flagg is a winner and is ready to compete now.  Not trying to win without your picks is a tough way to move forward.

1. I don’t think he’s ready to win now. He’s great for his age but he’s a ways away from being a top 10 player. Hes accumulating stats on a bottom feeder team. 

2. Like you said, We dont have picks for the Flagg era. That’s why I’d prioritize more picks and players under 25 years old instead of Gafford, PJ, Naji, and Klay.  None of those guys help you win when Flagg is in his prime.

[windjc]

I am pretty sure AD got injured because so many on the board were desperate for a trade. Hilarious stuff actually.

If this got us out of a dude trade the awesome. It also got us closer to a better pick in the next draft.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Street clothes is a fantastic tank commander. Respect please.

[mvossman]

I saw a proposal somewhere of Gafford+Thompson to Boston for Simons (expiring) and a 1st. That reduces the Mavs payroll by nearly $29m next year and potentially gets them out of the tax entirely. I'd love to see a move like that.

Best case scenario right now.

[F Gump]

You bring up something that I'm curious about. What do the Mavs want to do this TDL now? Would they rather have the new GM work some of this in the summer? Are there pressing contract issues that would be smarter dealt with now?

When AD was the main trade bait, it seems moving players had a certain sequence to it. It doesn't feel that way anymore. 

To me it seems like the tax may be the most important issue facing the Mavs rather than the acquisition of specific players.

I'm not convinced the "tax" itself is an issue at all. They do need to generally lower payroll somewhat, but from what I can tell that's more of a need to stay under A2 (which has wider consequences) and gain some roster-building flexibility, and not so much about having to pay tax. Eventually they would be smart to work with a somewhat more efficient payroll, of course.

But imo the goal should be maintaining or increasing the talent they have and getting rid of the unproductive players on bad contracts (Hardy, Martin, DAR), not the good ones. Talent is hard to obtain. If you have it, don't let go of it for air (aka cap room) but instead swap it for other talent, if you need a change.