Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[F Gump]

I figure that the AD-to-ATL trade ideas are dead now, but there's possibly some now-or-never urgency for ATL because the KP salary as a trade match for AD is gone once we get to the summer.

In thinking about that, I was fiddling with the numbers using the observation upthread that maybe OO and R are not in ATL's future plans (so, to ATL, they are spare parts, and they might be contracts THEY want to move as much as we want to move ones like Martin, Hardy, and DAR). It's also possible the Hawks could see past the injury-of-the-day for AD and decide they would rather get him in March or so, for their unwanted parts, rather than not at all.

If so (yes, iffy, but also possible), then here's a trade where the numbers work AND it fits all the info, AND both teams get the benefit of clearing unwanted salaries from their roster:
AD, DAR, Hardy, Martin
KP, OO, Ris, Kennard

It's a roster balanced 4-for-4 (which both teams need), both teams are able to send out a couple of unwanted players, and ATL stays under the tax line (there are lots of ideas being floated that are CBA-legal, but leave ATL paying tax, and I believe "no tax" is a MAJOR gotta-have for the Hawks).

The numbers also work if it's expanded to a 5-for-5 by each team adding smaller salaries like Powell, Exum, Newell, Wallace, etc in a way they feel is fair value, or it could be shrunk to a 3-for-3 by removing Martin and Kennard that still keeps ATL from paying tax (it's tight).

In addition (and important, I think), it keeps both teams in good shape cap-wise going forward. And maybe this helps ATL additionally (as well as DAL) so that ATL is even more eager to deal.

Would I still be asking for NO #1 and a future protected 1st? Yes, of course. But if ATL wanted to do the 4-for-4 (or bigger, such as adding Powell and Newell to the swap), then I feel that gives suitable incentive to negotiate on the pick(s) details, and I see ways to do that. Such as: 
[a] maybe adding protections on the NO pick part, so that if it is top ___, ATL gets it and the Mavs get CLE 2026 plus a future unprotected #1, definitely unprotected if ATL is getting the sure thing of a top ___ pick in 2026, or 
[b] making the 2026 pick to DAL be "the better of NO/DAL" instead of an outright pick, which means ATL is assured of getting a good pick anyhow.

[omahen]

I figure that the AD-to-ATL trade ideas are dead now, but there's possibly some now-or-never urgency for ATL because the KP salary as a trade match for AD is gone once we get to the summer.

In thinking about that, I was fiddling with the numbers using the observation upthread that maybe OO and R are not in ATL's future plans (so, to ATL, they are spare parts, and they might be contracts THEY want to move as much as we want to move ones like Martin, Hardy, and DAR). It's also possible the Hawks could see past the injury-of-the-day for AD and decide they would rather get him in March or so, for their unwanted parts, rather than not at all.

If so (yes, iffy, but also possible), then here's a trade where the numbers work AND it fits all the info, AND both teams get the benefit of clearing unwanted salaries from their roster:
AD, DAR, Hardy, Martin
KP, OO, Ris, Kennard

It's a roster balanced 4-for-4 (which both teams need), both teams are able to send out a couple of unwanted players, and ATL stays under the tax line (there are lots of ideas being floated that are CBA-legal, but leave ATL paying tax, and I believe "no tax" is a MAJOR gotta-have for the Hawks).

The numbers also work if it's expanded to a 5-for-5 by each team adding smaller salaries like Powell, Exum, Newell, Wallace, etc in a way they feel is fair value, or it could be shrunk to a 3-for-3 by removing Martin and Kennard that still keeps ATL from paying tax (it's tight).

In addition (and important, I think), it keeps both teams in good shape cap-wise going forward. And maybe this helps ATL additionally (as well as DAL) so that ATL is even more eager to deal.

Would I still be asking for NO #1 and a future protected 1st? Yes, of course. But if ATL wanted to do the 4-for-4 (or bigger, such as adding Powell and Newell to the swap), then I feel that gives suitable incentive to negotiate on the pick(s) details, and I see ways to do that. Such as: 
[a] maybe adding protections on the NO pick part, so that if it is top ___, ATL gets it and the Mavs get CLE 2026 plus a future unprotected #1, definitely unprotected if ATL is getting the sure thing of a top ___ pick in 2026, or 
[b] making the 2026 pick to DAL be "the better of NO/DAL" instead of an outright pick, which means ATL is assured of getting a good pick anyhow.

 

There is a huge difference between an unwanted salary and a player that might not be part of the vision of the future. Hardy and Martin barely play and when they do they are not really good. DAR doesn't play at all. ZR and OO are starters and they put up solid numbers, definitely totally in line with their contracts. I really don't understand how you can put these contracts in an equal quality basket. 

Atlanta will never take all Mavs trash for injured AD. And even add picks to the deal. That train has left the station.

[myconsumerclub]

Nico and his buddy at the Lakers are laughing their ass off right now and there probably out there talk shit about how they got one over on Dallas big time.

We have our hands tide guys AD is definitely stuck here now and if he can get back and rebuild his career then maybe next season we see a way to do something as Lively and Irving both come back healthy enough to compete hard.

You have to do maximum tank now to make that first round pick something special.

BPA is what we draft. It wasn't to hard to draft well last year with #1 you had it all picked for you by every expert in the league.

Cooper is the one star on the team that we can build around and he needs to play at the 4 so if AD stays he is a center that does not shoot 3's anymore. Hey we got punked by the lakers but its okay we can recover with Cooper. Its going to take a while but we need to see about getting younger and snagging picks from here on out.

Everyone not named Cooper is available if you ask me.

[F Gump]

 

There is a huge difference between an unwanted salary and a player that might not be part of the vision of the future. Hardy and Martin barely play and when they do they are not really good. DAR doesn't play at all. ZR and OO are starters and they put up solid numbers, definitely totally in line with their contracts. I really don't understand how you can put these contracts in an equal quality basket. 

Atlanta will never take all Mavs trash for injured AD. And even add picks to the deal. That train has left the station.

" for injured AD" --I think you (and many others) are way overreacting to AD's situation. He is far from permanently injured. It is a temporary setback, but it will go away in a couple months, and he will be back. To exaggerate my point so it's clear, if AD missed a game because he had a major toothache that required dental surgery, he wouldn't lose his appeal to teams who want to get him because he's out for a few games, would he? This is a longer-lasting situation, obviously, but is it really that different in the big picture?

Also, I didn't say the Mavs and ATL add-in's here are equal trade values. Sheesh. They are just paths to equal SALARY going both ways, which is key. Please don't be in such a hurry to criticize that you don't look for the point and you then totally misstate the idea I'm offering. Thank you. 

Here's the thing. I don't know if ATL still wants AD, but this is assuming they do. If they do, they will have some willingness to work towards what DAL wants, while DAL works towards what they want. That's how negotiations and good negotiators work

The point is that there was no avenue in prior ideas for ATL to offer some value (which they MUST offer, if they want to get AD) without it ALL having to ride solely on picks because we thought they didn't have any bigger salary players they might be willing to include other than a 1st round bust. But now, if OO is able to be on the table, it opens avenues to include more salary outgoing from ATL, and that then allows more from DAL too. So all I have done is a new equation adding in OO (who ATL doesn't seem to see as highly important, if the observations are on target) for some matching salary that DAL does not want, and now there's some value on the table for DAL in that swap of extra players, which then might lessen how badly DAL needs the NO pick just to get some decent value.

There are other ways to do an AD trade, of course, but ATL wants AD plus they want some side benefits too. They want an all-star 2-way big but they want to keep ALL their best players. They want to stay under the tax line this season. They want to do the same next season too. So, if the Mavs are working to ensure ATL gets AD and ALSO gets all those other benefits, then the Mavs are going to ask (and get) some side benefits in return from ATL. If they are still talking, that's the core of where they are.


SIDE NOTE: I do find it a bit suspicious that while AD is idled (with a hurt finger), the same is suddenly true of KP and Ris (with weak explanations). In prior years, we would INSTANTLY think that something is up (and usually turn out to be right). And we know they are not being sidelined for a stealth tanking by ATL. Maybe talks never died and ATL wants to be sure their main players for the deal don't get hurt before they can trade them for AD? Who knows. For all the flaws we see in him, we lose track of what AD offers and ATL would want - he is a beast on the floor (defends, rebounds, blocks shots, is a real presence) who would make a MAJOR diff in ATL's potential, I think, because the Hawks themselves are frustrated with their lack of effectiveness on defense. If they think AD is their answer, they will keep chasing.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Hawks can dream about steal street clothes but it will never happens. They had to pay for him.

A no shooting hand injury doesn't affect his trade value.

[GermanMav]

This injury absolutely affects a trade, because teams thought they could win something right now with AD, and this is off the table now.

[F Gump]

This injury absolutely affects a trade, because teams thought they could win something right now with AD, and this is off the table now.

Is it? What is there to be won in January that would have been be a team's priority driving a trade, that isn't there anymore? Can't live without a few extra regular-season wins in the doldrums of mid-season? Yeah, I see the theory, but not sure it really holds up to closer scrutiny.

Sure, AD being sidelined for a bit could motivate a team to perhaps wait a month, until the TDL, and a month closer to him being available. Of course, if another team decided they didn't need to wait, and came to pay the price and scooped him up in the meantime, then ... ???

We have seen before that it's less about the timing, and more about how a team values the prize. If you don't value him very much, then you hem and haw and wait for everything to be the perfect moment. But if you value him enough, you probably do not wait at all. 

If the line went away, it will come back.

[Winter]

Is it? What is there to be won in January that would have been be a team's priority driving a trade, that isn't there anymore? Can't live without a few extra regular-season wins in the doldrums of mid-season? Yeah, I see the theory, but not sure it really holds up to closer scrutiny.

Sure, AD being sidelined for a bit could motivate a team to perhaps wait a month, until the TDL, and a month closer to him being available. Of course, if another team decided they didn't need to wait, and came to pay the price and scooped him up in the meantime, then ... ???

We have seen before that it's less about the timing, and more about how a team values the prize. If you don't value him very much, then you hem and haw and wait for everything to be the perfect moment. But if you value him enough, you probably do not wait at all. 

If the line went away, it will come back.

I also think the fact that AD's recent injuries aren't so much basketball injuries as just terrible luck. If I'm a suitor for AD, this has to be considered. Maybe a team like Atlanta sees an opportunity for a discount more than a total dismissal.

[Dirknows]

Is it? What is there to be won in January that would have been be a team's priority driving a trade, that isn't there anymore? Can't live without a few extra regular-season wins in the doldrums of mid-season? Yeah, I see the theory, but not sure it really holds up to closer scrutiny.

Sure, AD being sidelined for a bit could motivate a team to perhaps wait a month, until the TDL, and a month closer to him being available. Of course, if another team decided they didn't need to wait, and came to pay the price and scooped him up in the meantime, then ... ???

We have seen before that it's less about the timing, and more about how a team values the prize. If you don't value him very much, then you hem and haw and wait for everything to be the perfect moment. But if you value him enough, you probably do not wait at all. 

If the line went away, it will come back.

How do you see a line coming back this season? He won’t even be healthy by the TDL if he doesn’t need surgery and if he does he’s out all year.

[Chicagojk]

Do you remember Rich Paul liked a quote showing a trade for AD to ATL for KP, Kennard, Newell and a 29 first.   Was he just bored?   Was that really close to the ATL offer?   Or was that close to the offer he was trying to push for?   Maybe that was the ATL offer and Dallas had more "asks", such as Rischacher or another first?   Maybe that offer is improved as we get closer to the trade deadline?   Maybe Dallas eventually bites the bullet for the salary relief and the youngster Newell and a future first.   That liked tweet was always weird to me.  Although with his podcast, it seems like Paul may be a bit of a loose cannon.


My biggest concern was settling for a less than ideal AD trade, rather than keep him and win some games.   I need to be honest though, the past two weeks were not a strong case that this team was going to win regardless.    This finger injury sounds more serious than I am letting on.   At least it isn't a lower body injury.  I would be much more bummed if it was a 2-6 month lower body injury.   

I can certainly be wrong.  I may change my opinion.    I sincerely doubt AD is traded this year.   I would think any team would want to see him on the court for weeks before any trade picks up.   Next year, Mavs have no incentive to be bad.  So play AD next year early in the season if no trade comes up.   Maybe something eventually pops back up if he can stay healthy for two months.  

Unfortunately, this Mavs season has little interest now.   Flagg will keep us engaged and he has been fabulous, but not too much interests me.  I really hoped we would be in a different spot now.  Although if you get lucky in the lottery it will be for the best.

[omahen]

" for injured AD" --I think you (and many others) are way overreacting to AD's situation. He is far from permanently injured. It is a temporary setback, but it will go away in a couple months, and he will be back. To exaggerate my point so it's clear, if AD missed a game because he had a major toothache that required dental surgery, he wouldn't lose his appeal to teams who want to get him because he's out for a few games, would he? This is a longer-lasting situation, obviously, but is it really that different in the big picture?

Also, I didn't say the Mavs and ATL add-in's here are equal trade values. Sheesh. They are just paths to equal SALARY going both ways, which is key. Please don't be in such a hurry to criticize that you don't look for the point and you then totally misstate the idea I'm offering. Thank you. 

Here's the thing. I don't know if ATL still wants AD, but this is assuming they do. If they do, they will have some willingness to work towards what DAL wants, while DAL works towards what they want. That's how negotiations and good negotiators work

The point is that there was no avenue in prior ideas for ATL to offer some value (which they MUST offer, if they want to get AD) without it ALL having to ride solely on picks because we thought they didn't have any bigger salary players they might be willing to include other than a 1st round bust. But now, if OO is able to be on the table, it opens avenues to include more salary outgoing from ATL, and that then allows more from DAL too. So all I have done is a new equation adding in OO (who ATL doesn't seem to see as highly important, if the observations are on target) for some matching salary that DAL does not want, and now there's some value on the table for DAL in that swap of extra players, which then might lessen how badly DAL needs the NO pick just to get some decent value.

There are other ways to do an AD trade, of course, but ATL wants AD plus they want some side benefits too. They want an all-star 2-way big but they want to keep ALL their best players. They want to stay under the tax line this season. They want to do the same next season too. So, if the Mavs are working to ensure ATL gets AD and ALSO gets all those other benefits, then the Mavs are going to ask (and get) some side benefits in return from ATL. If they are still talking, that's the core of where they are.


SIDE NOTE: I do find it a bit suspicious that while AD is idled (with a hurt finger), the same is suddenly true of KP and Ris (with weak explanations). In prior years, we would INSTANTLY think that something is up (and usually turn out to be right). And we know they are not being sidelined for a stealth tanking by ATL. Maybe talks never died and ATL wants to be sure their main players for the deal don't get hurt before they can trade them for AD? Who knows. For all the flaws we see in him, we lose track of what AD offers and ATL would want - he is a beast on the floor (defends, rebounds, blocks shots, is a real presence) who would make a MAJOR diff in ATL's potential, I think, because the Hawks themselves are frustrated with their lack of effectiveness on defense. If they think AD is their answer, they will keep chasing.

AD injury and "overreacting". AD is injured all the time it is not just this latest one. He played 29 games for Mavs out of something like 80 possible. This going on with an extended past injury history. He is much closer to being "permanently injured" than he is to "temporaray setback". If anything, you are underselling his availabilty issue to extreme, not others overreacting to injury.

It is totally ok you think its best to hold onto Davis. Agree to disagree if this is best way forward for Mavs. Might actually be now, with the injury.  But I think you are extremely overvaluaing his trade value, that further plummeted with this latest injury. And I also think you are overvaluing how much teams are actually interested in him.

[omahen]

Defensive problem Atlanta had is gone now. Their defense is actually top5 in NBA in last 10 games and second best in the league in last 5 when Trae was mostly not playing. On/off numbers - their defense with Trae was 126 (convincingly last in the league), without him it was 113, which is borderline top10. They have more problems on offense without Young.

[F Gump]

How do you see a line coming back this season? He won’t even be healthy by the TDL if he doesn’t need surgery and if he does he’s out all year.

Unless it's an ongoing or career-threatening injury (and there's no indication it's anything like that), he's still AD. You just have to deal with the hassle that you won't get him on the floor right away. Have to wait a month or 2 or so before you open the package under the tree. 

Teams will weigh that, and what it means to them. Each team will see it their own way. They will play with the what-if's, and their own timelines. 

All in all, I am certain it's going to be way more fluid than we think. I was not predicting and don't know exactly when. I don't know how many teams. I don't know what offers will look like. I just know the interest in him didn't evaporate, and it will inevitably heat back up again at some point. It may have not gone away, even, and only waiting for a better definition of his timeline for recovery.

We look at this through our own lens, but we have our preset biases that impact how we view such things. Consider: if Giannis was seriously in play, and we thought we could get him, but he had this injury happen, would we want the Mavs to walk away? Or would we want them to go ahead and work the deal, subject to doing some due diligence on the injury? That's easy, right? I think for teams who are truly wanting AD (and there are far more than we are hearing about), it's similar.

All that's true of DAL as well. This setback may have made them no more anxious to trade him than they were before. 

Most DAL fans, of course, threw up their hands and said, "Trade the bum, get him out of here. Just find a taker, and get him gone. I'm done here." I get it. But for the NBA this is only a bump in the road, a road that keeps going.

[F Gump]

But I think you are extremely overvaluaing his trade value, that further plummeted with this latest injury. And I also think you are overvaluing how much teams are actually interested in him.

................

Defensive problem Atlanta had is gone now. Their defense is actually top5 in NBA in last 10 games and second best in the league in last 5 when Trae was mostly not playing. On/off numbers - their defense with Trae was 126 (convincingly last in the league), without him it was 113, which is borderline top10. They have more problems on offense without Young.

I have said this before, and will say it again -- if the Mavs don't get strong offers, I am fine if they keep him. I am not interested in the "best of the bad offers." (But I think AD has wayyyyyyyyyyy more value than you seem to think he does. Stars and top talents are hard to get and tend to cost a lot to acquire. That's how this league has always worked.)

I have no doubts the right market WILL come to them at some point. Sooner. Later. Whenever. It doesn't have to be now. They won't get a trade that morphs them into an instant title contender no matter what they do. 

And if ATL doesn't feel the need for AD, then I guess they won't be a team chasing him. They will be good and can go about dominating the East as is. ~shrug~ I speak about ATL so much because they are the ones we hear about having a need, and strong interest, but if they are good as is, it's no biggie to me. 

I do suspect they are way more interested (and needy) than you are describing, but again, it doesn't much matter to me.

Thanks for sharing your views.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Gump is right guys. Keep calm.

[ThisIStheYear]

The goal right now should be to shed the roster of AD, Kyrie, and Gaff bringing back almost entirely expiring contracts and picks, even second round picks. Hell, even the picks would be gravy, just get payroll down as low as possible, lose as many games as you can, and try to set yourself up for one good free agent acquisition. AD, Kyrie, and Gaff are irrelevant to the future of the team and serve only as progress stoppers at this point. I’d also shut Flagg down at some point, like in Luka’s rookie year, if he was the clear ROY, like Luka was.

[Dirknows]

The goal right now should be to shed the roster of AD, Kyrie, and Gaff bringing back almost entirely expiring contracts and picks, even second round picks. Hell, even the picks would be gravy, just get payroll down as low as possible, lose as many games as you can, and try to set yourself up for one good free agent acquisition. AD, Kyrie, and Gaff are irrelevant to the future of the team and serve only as progress stoppers at this point.  I’d also shut Flagg down at some point, like in Luka’s rookie year, if he was the clear ROY, like Luka was.

Have you looked at the free agent class this year? Great players rarely ever hit free agency now. They sign massive extensions and then force trades to a destination they’re interested in. I don’t see how Gaff or Kyrie would be considered progress stoppers. Who are they blocking that we need to develop? AD blocks Flagg when he plays the 4 but I think Kyrie would be good to have with Cooper. Another guy who can create his own shot will only help Cooper generate more looks for himself.

[Smitty]

Is it? What is there to be won in January that would have been be a team's priority driving a trade, that isn't there anymore? Can't live without a few extra regular-season wins in the doldrums of mid-season? Yeah, I see the theory, but not sure it really holds up to closer scrutiny.

Sure, AD being sidelined for a bit could motivate a team to perhaps wait a month, until the TDL, and a month closer to him being available. Of course, if another team decided they didn't need to wait, and came to pay the price and scooped him up in the meantime, then ... ???

We have seen before that it's less about the timing, and more about how a team values the prize. If you don't value him very much, then you hem and haw and wait for everything to be the perfect moment. But if you value him enough, you probably do not wait at all. 

If the line went away, it will come back.

The AD stuff is fascinating. For all we know the Mavs turned down a great offer a few days ago, in a potential 3-team deal wrapped up in the Trea trade. Now, fans are even more frustrated because the Davis experience is so predictable and the reminder of “the trade” can never fully go away. Yes, he’s a top X player in the league but like Lively, I’m past trying to sell others on the play and fit. He just doesn’t get on the court enough here for it to matter. Like I said earlier with DLive, the idea of AD is greater than the reality.

As for a potential TDL deal still being possible, I think you’re probably correct that it’s not completely off the table. There’s a world where Davis elects to put off surgery, making his timeline for recovery around 6 weeks. The TDL is Feb 5th. The Hawks return from the ASB Feb 19th. Well, the 19th is exactly 6 weeks for AD’s recovery. So, if ATL makes a trade for Davis at the deadline, he will have only missed 3 games that he would have otherwise played in. Similar to when the Mavs traded for him initially. Far from a deal breaker, like you said.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Honestly, it's not that fascinating.

There has been very little market for AD. Atlanta and Toronto only teams interested. Toronto has a bunch of bad contracts we don't want. Atlanta not making a strong offer. Now he's hurt again and out a long time. The shitty offers we were getting will be even worse.

FGump is living in some alternate reality and he has been for the last year. This guy had us as a contender this season.

[ThisIStheYear]

Have you looked at the free agent class this year? Great players rarely ever hit free agency now. They sign massive extensions and then force trades to a destination they’re interested in. I don’t see how Gaff or Kyrie would be considered progress stoppers. Who are they blocking that we need to develop? AD blocks Flagg when he plays the 4 but I think Kyrie would be good to have with Cooper. Another guy who can create his own shot will only help Cooper generate more looks for himself.

Gaff and Kyrie make too much money and simply won’t be relevant when this team is viable again in 2-3 years.  I’m not talking about this summer’s FA class necessarily.  Could be the next one. Dump Klay too.  Start over. Don’t trust anyone over age 25. And, most importantly, get out of the tax and aprons. That’s priority one.